Top 10 Predictions | Melbourne
Top 10 Predictions | Melbourne Data for the Quarter Ending July 2014
Top 10 Predictions
Caroline Springs Houses 3023
#1
****
Score: Growth History Last 10 Years 7.91% pa.
3 Years Ago 2.10%
2 Years Ago -3.58%
Last Year 6.34%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 127 Median Value $437,000 Median Rent $390 /wk Rental Yield 4.69%
10+ %pa.
9+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Kensington Houses 3031 Score: ***
#2 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.76% pa.
3 Years Ago -7.30%
2 Years Ago 3.91%
Last Year 5.43%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 41 Median Value $710,000 Median Rent $525 /wk Rental Yield 3.85%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Spotswood Houses 3015 Score: ***
#3 Growth History Last 10 Years 6.53% pa.
3 Years Ago -2.45%
2 Years Ago -1.44%
Last Year 7.69%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 15 Median Value $675,000 Median Rent $465 /wk Rental Yield 3.58%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
1
Top 10 Predictions
Newport Houses 3015 Score: ****
#4 Growth History Last 10 Years 6.69% pa.
3 Years Ago -6.23%
2 Years Ago 4.22%
Last Year 11.76%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 81 Median Value $762,500 Median Rent $530 /wk Rental Yield 3.64%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Tarneit Houses 3029 Score: ****
#5 Growth History Last 10 Years 6.10% pa.
3 Years Ago -0.78%
2 Years Ago 2.07%
Last Year 4.53%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 161 Median Value $381,500 Median Rent $340 /wk Rental Yield 4.63%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Torquay Houses 3228 Score: ***
#6 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.21% pa.
3 Years Ago 2.97%
2 Years Ago -0.20%
Last Year 3.55%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 80 Median Value $578,000 Median Rent $470 /wk Rental Yield 4.23%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
2
Top 10 Predictions
Elwood Units 3184 Score: ***
#7 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.94% pa.
3 Years Ago -3.72%
2 Years Ago 0.28%
Last Year 4.86%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 91 Median Value $539,500 Median Rent $410 /wk Rental Yield 3.96%
9+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Cairnlea Houses 3023 Score: ***
#8 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.95% pa.
3 Years Ago -2.55%
2 Years Ago -2.83%
Last Year 6.84%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 27 Median Value $484,000 Median Rent $415 /wk Rental Yield 4.45%
8+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Waterways Houses 3195 Score: ****
#9 Growth History Last 10 Years 9.37% pa.
3 Years Ago 6.36%
2 Years Ago 10.67%
Last Year 11.10%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 19 Median Value $743,500 Median Rent $585 /wk Rental Yield 4.11%
7+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
3
Top 10 Predictions
Maribyrnong Houses 3032 Score: ***
#10 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.67% pa.
3 Years Ago -8.38%
2 Years Ago 0.02%
Last Year 9.24%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 51 Median Value $669,500 Median Rent $480 /wk Rental Yield 3.75%
7+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
4
Top 10 Predictions
Definition of Terms Term
What is it?
Median Value
Every quarter, Residex calculates a value for every property in its database. The middle value is found (i.e. middle number when all the values are arranged in order), which is the median value.
The median value tells you straight away what a typical house is worth in an area. By knowing the cost of a typical property in the area, you can tell fairly quickly which areas you can realistically afford to invest in.
Number of Sales
The number of sales figure is the number of sales we receive over a time period from the government after we have taken out any sales that are too high or too low to be useful. In areas where we have not yet received all that quarter’s sales from the Government, we have published an approximate number of sales.
If there is a high number of sales in an area, this tells you:
Median Rent
The median rent is calculated from various sources of weekly rental information such as newspapers and the internet.
The median rent tells you the typical amount of rent per week you can expect to earn in an area.
Capital Growth
The capital growth is the growth in house prices over a period of time. It is sometimes quoted for the latest quarter, and sometimes the average is given for the last 10 years.
The capital growth is the amount by which your investment grows in value. By following the growth in an area, you can find out what your property should be worth or how an area is performing.
Rental Yield
The rental yield is the amount of rent you can expect to receive in a year, expressed as a percentage of a property’s value. Unlike capital growth and total return, which are quarterly figures, rental yield is an annual figure.
The rental yield gives you an idea of how much rental income you can make in an area. For example, if an area has 5% rental yield and a property in that area is worth $500,000, then you should be able to make $25,000 ($500,000 x 5%) worth of rent in a year or approximately $480 a week.
Note: Users should exercise caution when evaluating very high or very low long-term average yields.
What does it tell you?
a) That the area is fairly busy and sees a lot of sales activity b) How confident you can be in the Residex figures, because the more sales we have, the more data has been used to calculate growth, medians and other data.
Total Return
A combination of both capital growth and rental income.
If you have been renting out your investment property, the total return figure tells you what your return is from both the growth in house price plus the cash flow from the rental.
Star Rating System
Residex quantifies the risks associated with the ability of investors to achieve the predicted growth and rental returns of each suburb by assigning a comparative risk score to each suburb. The star ratings are a simplified way of expressing these scores. It is possible for one suburb to have a higher star rating than another suburb that presents a comparatively higher rental yield and/or growth estimate. Similarly, neighbouring suburbs with similar rent returns and growth estimates may have different star ratings.
Two, three or four stars reflect the relative degree of confidence that Residex has in the forecasts being achieved or exceeded, based on the information we have been able to obtain from our analysis and research.
©Onthehouse.com.au
Four stars mean that the suburb is ranked in the top 25% of risk scores obtained. In other words, it is ranked in the quarter with the lowest risk. Three stars means the suburb is ranked in the next 25% and so on.
5
Top 10 Predictions
The Residex Predictions Model The Residex prediction methodology is also unique. How did we work out what the market is likely to do over the next 5 or 8 years? We started by gathering a lot of information. The Residex statisticians used Melbourne as a good base model and collected information going back to 1901 to analyse how Melbourne had performed over a long time period including the Great Depression, two World Wars, and many other events that could have had a bearing on the housing market. From this century-long series, it became clear that, no matter what was going on in the world, the Australian property market moves in noticeable trends and cycles. Residex then investigated lots of different factors to see what their bearing was on the property market: interest rates, inflation, employment levels, population, bank bill rates, etc. By combining the results of these studies with our understanding of past trends and history, we were able to develop the Residex predictions. We have been producing predictions since December 1994, and we are constantly refining them to increase their accuracy. For many years, they have proved to be very good indicators of the property market.
Disclaimer Neither Residex Pty Limited nor any of their employees gives any warranty that any value you determine from our data or investment area selected will be correct. Residex Pty Limited believes the statements, recommendations, calculations, data and graphs contained herein to be correct and not misleading but we give no warranty in relation thereto and we expressly disclaim any liability for any loss or damage which may arise from any person acting or deciding not to act partly or wholly on the basis of any such statements, recommendations, calculations, data or graphs. All information contained in this pack is subject to normal copyright laws in favour of Residex Pty Limited. No information contained in this report can be copied or used for any purpose other than for the purpose for which it has been provided: namely, to assist the purchaser in establishing an appropriate investment area in Queensland and the Northern Territory. Photostat copying of any part of this report without the consent of Residex Pty Limited is specifically prohibited. Qld Data: The Department of Natural Resources and Mines makes no representations or warranties about accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of the data for any particular purpose and disclaims all responsibility and all liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for all expenses, losses, damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which might be incurred as a result of the data being inaccurate or incomplete in any way and for any reason.
www.onthehouse.com.au
©Onthehouse.com.au
6
Top 10 Predictions
Caroline Springs Houses 3023
#1
****
Score: Growth History Last 10 Years 7.91% pa.
3 Years Ago 2.10%
2 Years Ago -3.58%
Last Year 6.34%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 127 Median Value $437,000 Median Rent $390 /wk Rental Yield 4.69%
10+ %pa.
9+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Kensington Houses 3031 Score: ***
#2 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.76% pa.
3 Years Ago -7.30%
2 Years Ago 3.91%
Last Year 5.43%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 41 Median Value $710,000 Median Rent $525 /wk Rental Yield 3.85%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Spotswood Houses 3015 Score: ***
#3 Growth History Last 10 Years 6.53% pa.
3 Years Ago -2.45%
2 Years Ago -1.44%
Last Year 7.69%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 15 Median Value $675,000 Median Rent $465 /wk Rental Yield 3.58%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
1
Top 10 Predictions
Newport Houses 3015 Score: ****
#4 Growth History Last 10 Years 6.69% pa.
3 Years Ago -6.23%
2 Years Ago 4.22%
Last Year 11.76%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 81 Median Value $762,500 Median Rent $530 /wk Rental Yield 3.64%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Tarneit Houses 3029 Score: ****
#5 Growth History Last 10 Years 6.10% pa.
3 Years Ago -0.78%
2 Years Ago 2.07%
Last Year 4.53%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 161 Median Value $381,500 Median Rent $340 /wk Rental Yield 4.63%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Torquay Houses 3228 Score: ***
#6 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.21% pa.
3 Years Ago 2.97%
2 Years Ago -0.20%
Last Year 3.55%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 80 Median Value $578,000 Median Rent $470 /wk Rental Yield 4.23%
9+ %pa.
8+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
2
Top 10 Predictions
Elwood Units 3184 Score: ***
#7 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.94% pa.
3 Years Ago -3.72%
2 Years Ago 0.28%
Last Year 4.86%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 91 Median Value $539,500 Median Rent $410 /wk Rental Yield 3.96%
9+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Cairnlea Houses 3023 Score: ***
#8 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.95% pa.
3 Years Ago -2.55%
2 Years Ago -2.83%
Last Year 6.84%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 27 Median Value $484,000 Median Rent $415 /wk Rental Yield 4.45%
8+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
Waterways Houses 3195 Score: ****
#9 Growth History Last 10 Years 9.37% pa.
3 Years Ago 6.36%
2 Years Ago 10.67%
Last Year 11.10%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 19 Median Value $743,500 Median Rent $585 /wk Rental Yield 4.11%
7+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
3
Top 10 Predictions
Maribyrnong Houses 3032 Score: ***
#10 Growth History Last 10 Years 5.67% pa.
3 Years Ago -8.38%
2 Years Ago 0.02%
Last Year 9.24%
Aug 04-Jul 14
Aug 11-Jul 12
Jul 12-Jul 13
Jul 13-Jul 14
Results for quarter ending Jul 31, 2014 Sale Count 51 Median Value $669,500 Median Rent $480 /wk Rental Yield 3.75%
7+ %pa.
7+
%pa.
5 years
8 years
Jul 14-Aug 19
Jul 14-Aug 22
Projections
©Onthehouse.com.au
4
Top 10 Predictions
Definition of Terms Term
What is it?
Median Value
Every quarter, Residex calculates a value for every property in its database. The middle value is found (i.e. middle number when all the values are arranged in order), which is the median value.
The median value tells you straight away what a typical house is worth in an area. By knowing the cost of a typical property in the area, you can tell fairly quickly which areas you can realistically afford to invest in.
Number of Sales
The number of sales figure is the number of sales we receive over a time period from the government after we have taken out any sales that are too high or too low to be useful. In areas where we have not yet received all that quarter’s sales from the Government, we have published an approximate number of sales.
If there is a high number of sales in an area, this tells you:
Median Rent
The median rent is calculated from various sources of weekly rental information such as newspapers and the internet.
The median rent tells you the typical amount of rent per week you can expect to earn in an area.
Capital Growth
The capital growth is the growth in house prices over a period of time. It is sometimes quoted for the latest quarter, and sometimes the average is given for the last 10 years.
The capital growth is the amount by which your investment grows in value. By following the growth in an area, you can find out what your property should be worth or how an area is performing.
Rental Yield
The rental yield is the amount of rent you can expect to receive in a year, expressed as a percentage of a property’s value. Unlike capital growth and total return, which are quarterly figures, rental yield is an annual figure.
The rental yield gives you an idea of how much rental income you can make in an area. For example, if an area has 5% rental yield and a property in that area is worth $500,000, then you should be able to make $25,000 ($500,000 x 5%) worth of rent in a year or approximately $480 a week.
Note: Users should exercise caution when evaluating very high or very low long-term average yields.
What does it tell you?
a) That the area is fairly busy and sees a lot of sales activity b) How confident you can be in the Residex figures, because the more sales we have, the more data has been used to calculate growth, medians and other data.
Total Return
A combination of both capital growth and rental income.
If you have been renting out your investment property, the total return figure tells you what your return is from both the growth in house price plus the cash flow from the rental.
Star Rating System
Residex quantifies the risks associated with the ability of investors to achieve the predicted growth and rental returns of each suburb by assigning a comparative risk score to each suburb. The star ratings are a simplified way of expressing these scores. It is possible for one suburb to have a higher star rating than another suburb that presents a comparatively higher rental yield and/or growth estimate. Similarly, neighbouring suburbs with similar rent returns and growth estimates may have different star ratings.
Two, three or four stars reflect the relative degree of confidence that Residex has in the forecasts being achieved or exceeded, based on the information we have been able to obtain from our analysis and research.
©Onthehouse.com.au
Four stars mean that the suburb is ranked in the top 25% of risk scores obtained. In other words, it is ranked in the quarter with the lowest risk. Three stars means the suburb is ranked in the next 25% and so on.
5
Top 10 Predictions
The Residex Predictions Model The Residex prediction methodology is also unique. How did we work out what the market is likely to do over the next 5 or 8 years? We started by gathering a lot of information. The Residex statisticians used Melbourne as a good base model and collected information going back to 1901 to analyse how Melbourne had performed over a long time period including the Great Depression, two World Wars, and many other events that could have had a bearing on the housing market. From this century-long series, it became clear that, no matter what was going on in the world, the Australian property market moves in noticeable trends and cycles. Residex then investigated lots of different factors to see what their bearing was on the property market: interest rates, inflation, employment levels, population, bank bill rates, etc. By combining the results of these studies with our understanding of past trends and history, we were able to develop the Residex predictions. We have been producing predictions since December 1994, and we are constantly refining them to increase their accuracy. For many years, they have proved to be very good indicators of the property market.
Disclaimer Neither Residex Pty Limited nor any of their employees gives any warranty that any value you determine from our data or investment area selected will be correct. Residex Pty Limited believes the statements, recommendations, calculations, data and graphs contained herein to be correct and not misleading but we give no warranty in relation thereto and we expressly disclaim any liability for any loss or damage which may arise from any person acting or deciding not to act partly or wholly on the basis of any such statements, recommendations, calculations, data or graphs. All information contained in this pack is subject to normal copyright laws in favour of Residex Pty Limited. No information contained in this report can be copied or used for any purpose other than for the purpose for which it has been provided: namely, to assist the purchaser in establishing an appropriate investment area in Queensland and the Northern Territory. Photostat copying of any part of this report without the consent of Residex Pty Limited is specifically prohibited. Qld Data: The Department of Natural Resources and Mines makes no representations or warranties about accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of the data for any particular purpose and disclaims all responsibility and all liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for all expenses, losses, damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which might be incurred as a result of the data being inaccurate or incomplete in any way and for any reason.
www.onthehouse.com.au
©Onthehouse.com.au
6
