trading opp. CASTOR SEED
07 March 2011
FUNDAMENTAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY REPORT ON
CASTOR SEED
Presented by: Subhranil Dey
Crop Scenario
Outlook
ALL INDIA
Investors can initiate short positions in CASTOR SEED NCDEX April contract in the range of 4700-4600 for target of 4200-4050 levels with a closing stop loss at 4880 levels.
· Total area under Castor crop in India for the year 2010-11 is
8.59 lakh hectares. It has increased by 14% as compared to previous year. · Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in India for the
year 2010-11 is 11.90 lakh tonnes. It has increased by 22% as compared to previous year. · Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 1385 kg/hectare as
against 1297 kg/hectare during the year 2009-10. It has increased by 7% as compared to previous year.
State–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in India (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds (All India) 0%
5%
10%
15%
Total
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
14%
Other States #
4% 2010 - 11 2009 - 10
Andhra Pradesh
% Change
34%
Rajasthan
7%
Gujarat
10%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2
GUJARAT:
· Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in Gujarat for
the year 2010-11 is 8.60 lakh tonnes, it has increased by 17%
· Total area under Castor crop in Gujarat for the year 2010-11
as compared to previous year.
is 4.83 lakh hectares.
· Growth is mainly in the districts such as Kachchh (41%),
· The area has increased by 10% as compared to previous
Surendranagar (37%) and all other districts except
year.
Ahmadabad, Rajkot and Jamnagar.
· Area under Castor crop has increased in all the major castor
· Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 1781 kg/hectare as
growing districts except Ahmedabad, Jamnagar and
against 1683 kg/hectare during the year 2009-10.
Rajkot.
District–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in Gujarat (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds in Gujarat -20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Total
10%
Others
10%
Vadodara
11%
Surendranagar
11%
Sabarkantha
20%
25%
30%
12%
Rajkot
-14% 2010 -11
Patan
13%
2009 -10
Panchmahal
26%
Mahesana
% Change
14%
Kheda
17%
Kachchh
22%
Jamnagar
-10%
Gandhinagar
9%
Banaskantha
8%
Ahmedabad
-3% 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
3
RAJASTHAN
the year 2010-11 is1.61 lakh tonnes. It has increased by 27%
· Total area under Castor crop in Rajasthan for the year 2010-
as compared to previous year. ·Production in Sirohi, Barmer and Jalore increased by 28%,
11 is 1.26 lakh hectares.
26% and 21% respectively as compared to previous year.
·The area has increased by 7% as compared to previous
Production in Rajasthan has increased mainly due to
year.
increase in yield.
·This year, area under Castor crop has mainly increased in
Barmer (10%) and other major district i s J a l o r e ( 8 % ) .
·Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 1274 kg/hectare,
which is 20% higher than previous year.
Whereas the area under crop has decreased in Pali district
·Yield has increased in all the districts of Rajasthan due to
by 5%.
favorable rainfall and suitable whether condition.
·Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in Rajasthan for
District–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in Rajasthan (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds in Rajasthan -6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Total
7%
Others
7%
Sirohi
7%
10%
12%
2010 -11 2009 -10
Pali
-5%
% Change
Jodhpur
1%
Jalore
8%
Barmer
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
4
ANDHRA PRADESH
· Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in Andhra
· Total area under Castor crop in Andhra Pradesh for the
Pradesh for the year 2010-11 is 1.38 lakh tonnes. It has
year 2010-11 is 1.98 lakh hectares. It has increased by 34% as
increased by 62% as compared to previous year due to
compared to previous year.
decrease in area and yield. · Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 698 kg/hectare, which
· Area under Castor crop has increased in all other districts except Prakasam and Rangareddy. Major growth is in
is 21% higher than the previous year.
Yield has been
Kurnool district.
increase due to adequate rainfall and good climatic conditions during the progress of the crop
District–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in Andhra Pradesh (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds in Andhra Pradesh - 20%
0%
20%
Total
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
34%
Districts
Other
34% 2010 - 11
Rangareddy
- 1%
2009 - 10 % Change
Prakasam
- 3%
Nalgonda
13%
Mahbubnagar
14%
Kurnool
133%
0
50
100
150
200
250
5
CASTOR OIL
·The industry body has estimated India's castor oil export
·India currently exports castor oil and derivatives worth
about Rs 3000 crore ($ 650 million) per annum, while the country holds around 90 per cent share in the total castor oil and derivatives exports in the world.
this year around 3.97 lakh tons. Current rate of castor oil, CIF Rotterdam is USD 2700. ·About 23000 MT are to be shipped and shippers daily need
supply of raw material of up to 60,000- 65,000 bags.
·Global consumption of castor oil is expected to rise
·The prices, which had touched a peak of $2800 per tonne,
marginally in the range of 630,000-640,000 tonnes in the
are expected to come down to $2000-2200 per tonne in
year 2010-11.
coming months.
·The growth of consumption is moderate in the US and
falling in Japan and South Korea.
INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO · Brazil is estimated to produce one lakh tons, which was around 93,000 tons. · Production in China is estimated at 1.80 lakh tons, up from 1.70 lakh tons last year.
6
Castor seed: At the futures market
Summary & the way ahead
Castor seed had been obsessed with profits since many trading
Record castor seed production in India of close to 11.90 lakh
session. Since the beginning of the year, giving a break out
tonnes and a very large Brazilian crop of probably one lakh tons
above 3800 levels, the counter never-ever looked back. It gave a
in June/Aug 2011 should contribute to price pressure. Also,
straight up, continuous rally, touching 5882.50 levels.
recent record-high prices have damaged demand. Taking a look at the above analysis put forward at Global Castor Conference 2011, by the industry body & the market participants, castor prices are expected to take some corrections. The upside move may remain restricted until any fresh demand pours into the market.
7
For further any queries, please contact Subhranil Dey
Research Analyst
[email protected]
Ph.: 011-30111000 Extn.: 6953
Disclaimer: This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.
FUNDAMENTAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY REPORT ON
CASTOR SEED
Presented by: Subhranil Dey
Crop Scenario
Outlook
ALL INDIA
Investors can initiate short positions in CASTOR SEED NCDEX April contract in the range of 4700-4600 for target of 4200-4050 levels with a closing stop loss at 4880 levels.
· Total area under Castor crop in India for the year 2010-11 is
8.59 lakh hectares. It has increased by 14% as compared to previous year. · Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in India for the
year 2010-11 is 11.90 lakh tonnes. It has increased by 22% as compared to previous year. · Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 1385 kg/hectare as
against 1297 kg/hectare during the year 2009-10. It has increased by 7% as compared to previous year.
State–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in India (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds (All India) 0%
5%
10%
15%
Total
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
14%
Other States #
4% 2010 - 11 2009 - 10
Andhra Pradesh
% Change
34%
Rajasthan
7%
Gujarat
10%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2
GUJARAT:
· Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in Gujarat for
the year 2010-11 is 8.60 lakh tonnes, it has increased by 17%
· Total area under Castor crop in Gujarat for the year 2010-11
as compared to previous year.
is 4.83 lakh hectares.
· Growth is mainly in the districts such as Kachchh (41%),
· The area has increased by 10% as compared to previous
Surendranagar (37%) and all other districts except
year.
Ahmadabad, Rajkot and Jamnagar.
· Area under Castor crop has increased in all the major castor
· Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 1781 kg/hectare as
growing districts except Ahmedabad, Jamnagar and
against 1683 kg/hectare during the year 2009-10.
Rajkot.
District–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in Gujarat (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds in Gujarat -20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Total
10%
Others
10%
Vadodara
11%
Surendranagar
11%
Sabarkantha
20%
25%
30%
12%
Rajkot
-14% 2010 -11
Patan
13%
2009 -10
Panchmahal
26%
Mahesana
% Change
14%
Kheda
17%
Kachchh
22%
Jamnagar
-10%
Gandhinagar
9%
Banaskantha
8%
Ahmedabad
-3% 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
3
RAJASTHAN
the year 2010-11 is1.61 lakh tonnes. It has increased by 27%
· Total area under Castor crop in Rajasthan for the year 2010-
as compared to previous year. ·Production in Sirohi, Barmer and Jalore increased by 28%,
11 is 1.26 lakh hectares.
26% and 21% respectively as compared to previous year.
·The area has increased by 7% as compared to previous
Production in Rajasthan has increased mainly due to
year.
increase in yield.
·This year, area under Castor crop has mainly increased in
Barmer (10%) and other major district i s J a l o r e ( 8 % ) .
·Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 1274 kg/hectare,
which is 20% higher than previous year.
Whereas the area under crop has decreased in Pali district
·Yield has increased in all the districts of Rajasthan due to
by 5%.
favorable rainfall and suitable whether condition.
·Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in Rajasthan for
District–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in Rajasthan (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds in Rajasthan -6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Total
7%
Others
7%
Sirohi
7%
10%
12%
2010 -11 2009 -10
Pali
-5%
% Change
Jodhpur
1%
Jalore
8%
Barmer
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
4
ANDHRA PRADESH
· Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in Andhra
· Total area under Castor crop in Andhra Pradesh for the
Pradesh for the year 2010-11 is 1.38 lakh tonnes. It has
year 2010-11 is 1.98 lakh hectares. It has increased by 34% as
increased by 62% as compared to previous year due to
compared to previous year.
decrease in area and yield. · Average yield for the year 2010-11 is 698 kg/hectare, which
· Area under Castor crop has increased in all other districts except Prakasam and Rangareddy. Major growth is in
is 21% higher than the previous year.
Yield has been
Kurnool district.
increase due to adequate rainfall and good climatic conditions during the progress of the crop
District–wise Area, Yield and Production of Castor Seeds in Andhra Pradesh (2010-11)
District-wise Production of Castor Seeds in Andhra Pradesh - 20%
0%
20%
Total
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
34%
Districts
Other
34% 2010 - 11
Rangareddy
- 1%
2009 - 10 % Change
Prakasam
- 3%
Nalgonda
13%
Mahbubnagar
14%
Kurnool
133%
0
50
100
150
200
250
5
CASTOR OIL
·The industry body has estimated India's castor oil export
·India currently exports castor oil and derivatives worth
about Rs 3000 crore ($ 650 million) per annum, while the country holds around 90 per cent share in the total castor oil and derivatives exports in the world.
this year around 3.97 lakh tons. Current rate of castor oil, CIF Rotterdam is USD 2700. ·About 23000 MT are to be shipped and shippers daily need
supply of raw material of up to 60,000- 65,000 bags.
·Global consumption of castor oil is expected to rise
·The prices, which had touched a peak of $2800 per tonne,
marginally in the range of 630,000-640,000 tonnes in the
are expected to come down to $2000-2200 per tonne in
year 2010-11.
coming months.
·The growth of consumption is moderate in the US and
falling in Japan and South Korea.
INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO · Brazil is estimated to produce one lakh tons, which was around 93,000 tons. · Production in China is estimated at 1.80 lakh tons, up from 1.70 lakh tons last year.
6
Castor seed: At the futures market
Summary & the way ahead
Castor seed had been obsessed with profits since many trading
Record castor seed production in India of close to 11.90 lakh
session. Since the beginning of the year, giving a break out
tonnes and a very large Brazilian crop of probably one lakh tons
above 3800 levels, the counter never-ever looked back. It gave a
in June/Aug 2011 should contribute to price pressure. Also,
straight up, continuous rally, touching 5882.50 levels.
recent record-high prices have damaged demand. Taking a look at the above analysis put forward at Global Castor Conference 2011, by the industry body & the market participants, castor prices are expected to take some corrections. The upside move may remain restricted until any fresh demand pours into the market.
7
For further any queries, please contact Subhranil Dey
Research Analyst
[email protected]
Ph.: 011-30111000 Extn.: 6953
Disclaimer: This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.
