Transparency
IEA-China Workshop on Emergency Oil Stock Issues
Oil Market Transparency for Better Security
23-24 April 2001, Paris Jean-Yves Garnier Head, Energy Statistics Division
Is the Market Transparent? Crude Oil Production and Consumption Production
Consumption
Difference
1994
3055
3105
-1,6%
1995
3077
3125
-1.6%
1996
3120
3216
-3.1%
1997
3193
3317
-3.9%
Crude Oil Imports and Exports
World in Mtons (source: UN)
Imports
Exports
Difference
1994
1661
1595
3.9%
1995
1696
1640
3.3%
1996
1774
1678
5.4%
1997
1874
1741
7.1%
Is the Market Transparent?
Table 1 Table AND 1 DEMAND WORLD OIL SUPPLY
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND (million barrels per day)
1997 1998
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1999
1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 2000
1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 2001
OECD DEMAND North Ame rica Europe P acific
22.7 23.1 15.0 15.3 9.0 8.4
23.6 23.5 24.1 24.3 23.9 15.8 14.4 14.7 15.6 15.1 9.4 7.9 8.2 9.1 8.6
23.6 23.7 24.3 24.4 24.0 15.1 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.0 9.3 8.0 8.3 8.8 8.6
24.3 23.9 24.5 24.7 24.3 15.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.2 9.5 8.1 8.4 9.0 8.7
Tota l OECD
46.7 46.8
48.7 45.7 47.0 49.0 47.6
47.9 46.3 47.7 48.4 47.6
49.1 46.6 48.0 49.3 48.2
NON-OECD DEMAND 3.8 0.8 4.2 6.7 4.7 4.0 2.3
FS U Europe China 4000 Othe r As ia La tin Ame rica Middle Ea s t Africa
Thousand barrels per day
3000
3.7 0.8 4.2 6.7 4.8 4.2 2.3
3.6 0.8 4.4 7.0 4.6 4.3 2.3
3.3 0.7 4.6 7.1 4.8 4.4 2.3
3.4 0.7 4.3 7.1 4.9 4.4 2.3
3.7 0.7 4.6 7.1 4.8 4.2 2.4
3.5 0.7 4.5 7.1 4.8 4.3 2.3
3.6 0.8 4.7 7.1 4.7 4.3 2.4
3.4 0.7 4.5 7.3 4.8 4.4 2.3
3.5 0.7 5.1 7.3 4.9 4.5 2.3
3.7 0.8 4.8 7.2 4.8 4.3 2.4
3.5 0.8 4.8 7.2 4.8 4.4 2.3
3.6 0.8 4.9 7.3 4.8 4.4 2.4
3.4 0.8 5.0 7.4 4.9 4.6 2.4
3.3 0.7 5.0 7.5 5.0 4.7 2.4
3.5 0.8 5.3 7.5 5.0 4.5 2.4
3.5 0.8 5.0 7.4 4.9 4.6 2.4
Tota l Non-OECD
26.5 26.7
27.0 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.2
27.5 27.6 28.2 27.9 27.8
28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.6
Total De mand 1
73.1 73.5
75.8 72.9 74.1 76.5 74.8
75.5 73.9 75.9 76.4 75.4
77.3 75.0 76.7 78.2 76.8
North Ame rica Europe P acific
14.6 14.5 6.7 6.7 0.7 0.7
14.1 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.0 6.8 6.5 6.7 7.1 6.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
14.3 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.3 7.1 6.6 6.6 6.9 6.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.6 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.9 6.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Tota l OECD
22.1 21.9
21.5 20.9 21.3 22.0 21.4
22.3 21.8 21.7 22.0 21.9
22.1 21.9 21.9 22.5 22.1
7.2 7.3 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 2.2 2.2 3.4 3.6 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.8 20.9 21.2
7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.6
7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 7.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 21.9 22.0 22.4 22.7 22.2
8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.8
2000
OECD S UPPLY
1000
NON-OECD S UPPLY
0
FS U Europe China Othe r As ia La tin Ame rica Middle Ea s t Africa
-1000
Tota l Non-OECD -2000 P roces s ing Gains 2
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
44.5 44.7
44.6 44.0 44.6 45.5 44.7
45.9 45.5 45.7 46.4 45.9
Crude NGLs
27.2 28.0 2.7 2.8
27.8 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
26.5 27.8 28.4 29.0 27.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Tota l OP EC
29.9 30.8
30.6 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.4
29.3 30.7 31.3 31.9 30.8
Total S upply 3
74.4 75.5
75.3 73.1 73.6 74.5 74.1
75.2 76.2 77.0 78.3 76.7
Tota l Non-OP EC
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
46.6 46.4 46.5 47.1 46.6
1Q 19 3Q 86 19 1Q 86 19 3Q 87 19 1Q 87 19 3Q 88 19 1Q 88 19 3Q 89 19 1Q 89 19 3Q 90 19 1Q 90 19 3Q 91 19 1Q 91 19 3Q 92 19 1Q 92 19 3Q 93 19 1Q 93 19 3Q 94 19 1Q 94 19 3Q 95 19 1Q 95 19 3Q 96 19 1Q 96 19 3Q 97 19 1Q 97 19 3Q 98 19 1Q 98 19 3Q 99 19 1Q 99 20 3Q 00 20 00
-3000 OPEC
0.3 0.1 0.9
Tota l Floa ting S tora ge /Oil in Tra nsit Mis cella ne ous to ba la nce 4
0.3 0.1 1.6
-0.7 0.0 0.2
0.4 0.0
-0.2 -0.1
-2.4 -0.1
-0.7 -0.1
0.4 0.1 -0.3
-0.3 -0.1 0.0
-2.5 -0.1 0.5
-0.8 -0.1 0.1
-0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1
0.9 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.4
0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.7
-0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 1.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
Miscellaneous to balance 1.3 0.9 1.6 0.2 -0.3-0.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.7 1.9 1.0 2.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.4 -2.0 -0.7 2.3 1.2 1.9 1.3 To tal S to c k Ch. & Mis c
Me mo ite ms : Ca ll on OP EC crude + S tock ch. Total De mand ex. FS U 6
Total de ma nd e xc. FS U (% ch)
5
25.9 26.0 69.3 69.8 3.1 0.7
28.3 26.1 26.7 28.2 27.3 72.1 69.6 70.6 72.9 71.3 3.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.2
26.7 25.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 71.9 70.5 72.4 72.7 71.9 -0.3 1.2 2.6 -0.2 0.8
27.8 25.6 27.2 28.0 27.2 73.7 71.6 73.3 74.7 73.3 2.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 2.0
1 me a s ure d a s de live ries from re fine rie s a nd prima ry s tocks , compris e s inla nd de live rie s , inte rna tiona l ma rine bunke rs a nd re fine ry fue l a nd include s crude for dire ct burning, oil from non-conve ntiona l s ource s a nd othe r s ource s of s upply 2 ne t of volume tric gains and los s e s in the re fining proce s s (e xclude s ne t ga in/los s in forme r US S R, China and non-OECD Europe ) a nd marine tra ns porta tion los s e s 3 compris e s crude oil, condens a te s , NGLs , oil from non-conve ntional s ource s a nd othe r s ources of s upply 4 include s change s in non-re porte d s tocks in OECD and non-OECD a re a s 5 e qua ls tota l de ma nd minus tota l non-OP EC s upply minus OP EC NGLs a nd thus include s "Mis ce lla ne ous to ba la nce " for his torica l time pe riods 6 ye a r on ye ar % growth in globa l oil de ma nd e xcluding FS U
Oil Market Report
S TOCK CHANGES AND MIS CELLANEOUS Re po rte d OECD Indus try 0.3 0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 Governme nt
3.0
Highlights l
l
l
l
l
The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported.
Is the Market Transparent?
Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd) 1995
1996
1997
1998
APEC
2653
2903
3087
3134
IEA
2741
2872
3062
3109
OLADE
2722
2969
3022
3070
OPEC
2618
2858
3022
3071
UN
2834
2977
3166
0
Is the Market Transparent? Stocks
1
2 3
2
2
1
Primary, Secondary, Tertiary
Is the Market Transparent? Import and Export
A B C
Origin? Destination?
What are the Consequences of the Lack of Transparency? Higher volatility Prices not reflecting the conditions of the market Increased difficulties for policy makers, companies, investors to take the right decisions
A call for more transparency
A Call for Transparency...
trade
production
refinery
consumption
… A need for better data
stocks
oil analysts policy makers
Transparency: A 3-D Issue
Transparency will only exist
co un tr ie s
flows
l if the main flows are transparent l if the main products are transparent l if all players fully cooperate
products In fact there is a fourth dimension to consider: Í time
The Road Towards More Transparency International Meeting on Oil Statistics Meeting on Harmonisation of International Energy Statistics
Improving Oil Data Transparency
International Energy Agency Paris, 13-14 November 2000 International Energy Agency Paris, 24 November 1999
2-3 April 2001, Bangkok
APERC . EUROSTAT . IEA/OECD OLADE . OPEC . UN
Russia China
Korea
Malaysia
Germany
EUROSTAT
Thailand
APERC
Netherlands UK
US South Africa
Improving Oil Data Transparency
UN
Bangkok, 2-3 April 2001
IEA/ OECD
Japan
Australia
OPEC
Saudi Arabia
Algeria Brazil
Iran
Nigeria
OLADE
Mexico
Argentina
Political call for better transparency Key producer and consumer countries/organisations show their commitment What needs to be done? What can be done? How? A six-month exercise
A Starting Point
A Six-Month Exercise Products Crude Gasoline Production
Trade Stocks
Refinery
Demand
Mid. Dist.
Fuel Oil
Total
Collecting, Processing, Disseminating Country A1
Country A2
Country A3
Country B1
Organisation A
Organisation B
Meeting End 2001
Country B2
Country B3
Organisation C Country C1
Country C3 Country C2
Milestones l Agreement on the approach
Bangkok, 2-3 April 2001
l Harmonise definitions l User-friendly excel spreadsheet
Meeting between Secretariats 10 May 2001, Vienna
l A short manual l Six-month exercise
May-October
l International Meeting Í Analyse the results Í Draw lessons Í Make necessary changes Í Formalise the process
November or December
A Few Statistics on China to End
Crude Distillation Evolution from 1971 to 1997 of World Total Primary Energy Supply * by Region kb/cd Capacity (Mtoe) 10000
United States 9000 16,155 20.2 Former USSR 8000 10,010 12.5 7000 Japan 5,070 6.3 6000 China People’s Rep. of 4,840 6.0 South Korea 5000 2,438 3.0 4000 Germany 2,189 2.7 3000 Italy 2,027 2.5 2000 France 1,933 2.4 1000 Canada 1,845 2.3 0 United Kingdom 1971 1973 19751,806 2.3 1983 1985 1977 1979 1981 Rest of the World 31,827 39.7 OECD Middle East Former USSR Non-OECD Europe World 80,140 100.0 1973 Latin America Africa 3.8% 3.6% Asia** 6.4%
China 7.1% Non-OECD Europe 1.8% Former USSR Middle East 14.4% 1.1%
OECD 61.9%
Importers of Oil Products Mt 1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
United States Asia** Latin America Africa Germany Japan 1997 Netherlands Latin America 4.6% Africa Singapore 5.0% Asia** 11.0% People’s Rep. of China France China 11.7% Italy Non-OECD India Europe OECD 1.3% Former USSR 53.2% Hong Kong, Middle East China 9.5% 3.7% Rest of the World China
57 45 43 35 34 27 23 22 20 20 314
Oil Market Transparency for Better Security
23-24 April 2001, Paris Jean-Yves Garnier Head, Energy Statistics Division
Is the Market Transparent? Crude Oil Production and Consumption Production
Consumption
Difference
1994
3055
3105
-1,6%
1995
3077
3125
-1.6%
1996
3120
3216
-3.1%
1997
3193
3317
-3.9%
Crude Oil Imports and Exports
World in Mtons (source: UN)
Imports
Exports
Difference
1994
1661
1595
3.9%
1995
1696
1640
3.3%
1996
1774
1678
5.4%
1997
1874
1741
7.1%
Is the Market Transparent?
Table 1 Table AND 1 DEMAND WORLD OIL SUPPLY
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND (million barrels per day)
1997 1998
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1999
1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 2000
1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 2001
OECD DEMAND North Ame rica Europe P acific
22.7 23.1 15.0 15.3 9.0 8.4
23.6 23.5 24.1 24.3 23.9 15.8 14.4 14.7 15.6 15.1 9.4 7.9 8.2 9.1 8.6
23.6 23.7 24.3 24.4 24.0 15.1 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.0 9.3 8.0 8.3 8.8 8.6
24.3 23.9 24.5 24.7 24.3 15.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.2 9.5 8.1 8.4 9.0 8.7
Tota l OECD
46.7 46.8
48.7 45.7 47.0 49.0 47.6
47.9 46.3 47.7 48.4 47.6
49.1 46.6 48.0 49.3 48.2
NON-OECD DEMAND 3.8 0.8 4.2 6.7 4.7 4.0 2.3
FS U Europe China 4000 Othe r As ia La tin Ame rica Middle Ea s t Africa
Thousand barrels per day
3000
3.7 0.8 4.2 6.7 4.8 4.2 2.3
3.6 0.8 4.4 7.0 4.6 4.3 2.3
3.3 0.7 4.6 7.1 4.8 4.4 2.3
3.4 0.7 4.3 7.1 4.9 4.4 2.3
3.7 0.7 4.6 7.1 4.8 4.2 2.4
3.5 0.7 4.5 7.1 4.8 4.3 2.3
3.6 0.8 4.7 7.1 4.7 4.3 2.4
3.4 0.7 4.5 7.3 4.8 4.4 2.3
3.5 0.7 5.1 7.3 4.9 4.5 2.3
3.7 0.8 4.8 7.2 4.8 4.3 2.4
3.5 0.8 4.8 7.2 4.8 4.4 2.3
3.6 0.8 4.9 7.3 4.8 4.4 2.4
3.4 0.8 5.0 7.4 4.9 4.6 2.4
3.3 0.7 5.0 7.5 5.0 4.7 2.4
3.5 0.8 5.3 7.5 5.0 4.5 2.4
3.5 0.8 5.0 7.4 4.9 4.6 2.4
Tota l Non-OECD
26.5 26.7
27.0 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.2
27.5 27.6 28.2 27.9 27.8
28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.6
Total De mand 1
73.1 73.5
75.8 72.9 74.1 76.5 74.8
75.5 73.9 75.9 76.4 75.4
77.3 75.0 76.7 78.2 76.8
North Ame rica Europe P acific
14.6 14.5 6.7 6.7 0.7 0.7
14.1 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.0 6.8 6.5 6.7 7.1 6.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
14.3 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.3 7.1 6.6 6.6 6.9 6.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.6 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.9 6.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Tota l OECD
22.1 21.9
21.5 20.9 21.3 22.0 21.4
22.3 21.8 21.7 22.0 21.9
22.1 21.9 21.9 22.5 22.1
7.2 7.3 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 2.2 2.2 3.4 3.6 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.8 20.9 21.2
7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.6
7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 7.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 21.9 22.0 22.4 22.7 22.2
8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.8
2000
OECD S UPPLY
1000
NON-OECD S UPPLY
0
FS U Europe China Othe r As ia La tin Ame rica Middle Ea s t Africa
-1000
Tota l Non-OECD -2000 P roces s ing Gains 2
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
44.5 44.7
44.6 44.0 44.6 45.5 44.7
45.9 45.5 45.7 46.4 45.9
Crude NGLs
27.2 28.0 2.7 2.8
27.8 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
26.5 27.8 28.4 29.0 27.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Tota l OP EC
29.9 30.8
30.6 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.4
29.3 30.7 31.3 31.9 30.8
Total S upply 3
74.4 75.5
75.3 73.1 73.6 74.5 74.1
75.2 76.2 77.0 78.3 76.7
Tota l Non-OP EC
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
46.6 46.4 46.5 47.1 46.6
1Q 19 3Q 86 19 1Q 86 19 3Q 87 19 1Q 87 19 3Q 88 19 1Q 88 19 3Q 89 19 1Q 89 19 3Q 90 19 1Q 90 19 3Q 91 19 1Q 91 19 3Q 92 19 1Q 92 19 3Q 93 19 1Q 93 19 3Q 94 19 1Q 94 19 3Q 95 19 1Q 95 19 3Q 96 19 1Q 96 19 3Q 97 19 1Q 97 19 3Q 98 19 1Q 98 19 3Q 99 19 1Q 99 20 3Q 00 20 00
-3000 OPEC
0.3 0.1 0.9
Tota l Floa ting S tora ge /Oil in Tra nsit Mis cella ne ous to ba la nce 4
0.3 0.1 1.6
-0.7 0.0 0.2
0.4 0.0
-0.2 -0.1
-2.4 -0.1
-0.7 -0.1
0.4 0.1 -0.3
-0.3 -0.1 0.0
-2.5 -0.1 0.5
-0.8 -0.1 0.1
-0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1
0.9 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.4
0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.7
-0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 1.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
Miscellaneous to balance 1.3 0.9 1.6 0.2 -0.3-0.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.7 1.9 1.0 2.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.4 -2.0 -0.7 2.3 1.2 1.9 1.3 To tal S to c k Ch. & Mis c
Me mo ite ms : Ca ll on OP EC crude + S tock ch. Total De mand ex. FS U 6
Total de ma nd e xc. FS U (% ch)
5
25.9 26.0 69.3 69.8 3.1 0.7
28.3 26.1 26.7 28.2 27.3 72.1 69.6 70.6 72.9 71.3 3.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.2
26.7 25.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 71.9 70.5 72.4 72.7 71.9 -0.3 1.2 2.6 -0.2 0.8
27.8 25.6 27.2 28.0 27.2 73.7 71.6 73.3 74.7 73.3 2.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 2.0
1 me a s ure d a s de live ries from re fine rie s a nd prima ry s tocks , compris e s inla nd de live rie s , inte rna tiona l ma rine bunke rs a nd re fine ry fue l a nd include s crude for dire ct burning, oil from non-conve ntiona l s ource s a nd othe r s ource s of s upply 2 ne t of volume tric gains and los s e s in the re fining proce s s (e xclude s ne t ga in/los s in forme r US S R, China and non-OECD Europe ) a nd marine tra ns porta tion los s e s 3 compris e s crude oil, condens a te s , NGLs , oil from non-conve ntional s ource s a nd othe r s ources of s upply 4 include s change s in non-re porte d s tocks in OECD and non-OECD a re a s 5 e qua ls tota l de ma nd minus tota l non-OP EC s upply minus OP EC NGLs a nd thus include s "Mis ce lla ne ous to ba la nce " for his torica l time pe riods 6 ye a r on ye ar % growth in globa l oil de ma nd e xcluding FS U
Oil Market Report
S TOCK CHANGES AND MIS CELLANEOUS Re po rte d OECD Indus try 0.3 0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 Governme nt
3.0
Highlights l
l
l
l
l
The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported. The initial fourth quarter 2000 OECD stock estimate has been revised upwards by 45 million barrels, wiping out the moderate stock draw originally reported.
Is the Market Transparent?
Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd) 1995
1996
1997
1998
APEC
2653
2903
3087
3134
IEA
2741
2872
3062
3109
OLADE
2722
2969
3022
3070
OPEC
2618
2858
3022
3071
UN
2834
2977
3166
0
Is the Market Transparent? Stocks
1
2 3
2
2
1
Primary, Secondary, Tertiary
Is the Market Transparent? Import and Export
A B C
Origin? Destination?
What are the Consequences of the Lack of Transparency? Higher volatility Prices not reflecting the conditions of the market Increased difficulties for policy makers, companies, investors to take the right decisions
A call for more transparency
A Call for Transparency...
trade
production
refinery
consumption
… A need for better data
stocks
oil analysts policy makers
Transparency: A 3-D Issue
Transparency will only exist
co un tr ie s
flows
l if the main flows are transparent l if the main products are transparent l if all players fully cooperate
products In fact there is a fourth dimension to consider: Í time
The Road Towards More Transparency International Meeting on Oil Statistics Meeting on Harmonisation of International Energy Statistics
Improving Oil Data Transparency
International Energy Agency Paris, 13-14 November 2000 International Energy Agency Paris, 24 November 1999
2-3 April 2001, Bangkok
APERC . EUROSTAT . IEA/OECD OLADE . OPEC . UN
Russia China
Korea
Malaysia
Germany
EUROSTAT
Thailand
APERC
Netherlands UK
US South Africa
Improving Oil Data Transparency
UN
Bangkok, 2-3 April 2001
IEA/ OECD
Japan
Australia
OPEC
Saudi Arabia
Algeria Brazil
Iran
Nigeria
OLADE
Mexico
Argentina
Political call for better transparency Key producer and consumer countries/organisations show their commitment What needs to be done? What can be done? How? A six-month exercise
A Starting Point
A Six-Month Exercise Products Crude Gasoline Production
Trade Stocks
Refinery
Demand
Mid. Dist.
Fuel Oil
Total
Collecting, Processing, Disseminating Country A1
Country A2
Country A3
Country B1
Organisation A
Organisation B
Meeting End 2001
Country B2
Country B3
Organisation C Country C1
Country C3 Country C2
Milestones l Agreement on the approach
Bangkok, 2-3 April 2001
l Harmonise definitions l User-friendly excel spreadsheet
Meeting between Secretariats 10 May 2001, Vienna
l A short manual l Six-month exercise
May-October
l International Meeting Í Analyse the results Í Draw lessons Í Make necessary changes Í Formalise the process
November or December
A Few Statistics on China to End
Crude Distillation Evolution from 1971 to 1997 of World Total Primary Energy Supply * by Region kb/cd Capacity (Mtoe) 10000
United States 9000 16,155 20.2 Former USSR 8000 10,010 12.5 7000 Japan 5,070 6.3 6000 China People’s Rep. of 4,840 6.0 South Korea 5000 2,438 3.0 4000 Germany 2,189 2.7 3000 Italy 2,027 2.5 2000 France 1,933 2.4 1000 Canada 1,845 2.3 0 United Kingdom 1971 1973 19751,806 2.3 1983 1985 1977 1979 1981 Rest of the World 31,827 39.7 OECD Middle East Former USSR Non-OECD Europe World 80,140 100.0 1973 Latin America Africa 3.8% 3.6% Asia** 6.4%
China 7.1% Non-OECD Europe 1.8% Former USSR Middle East 14.4% 1.1%
OECD 61.9%
Importers of Oil Products Mt 1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
United States Asia** Latin America Africa Germany Japan 1997 Netherlands Latin America 4.6% Africa Singapore 5.0% Asia** 11.0% People’s Rep. of China France China 11.7% Italy Non-OECD India Europe OECD 1.3% Former USSR 53.2% Hong Kong, Middle East China 9.5% 3.7% Rest of the World China
57 45 43 35 34 27 23 22 20 20 314
