TURKEY
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INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
TURKEY - OVERVIEW Located in both Europe and Asia, Turkey has borders to Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Syria and coastlines to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. The climate varies from Mediterranean to continental. With an area of 779,452 square kilometers (300,948 square miles) Turkey is one of the largest countries in Europe. Its current population is approximately 74.1 million, approximately four million of whom live in the capital Ankara and 8.8 million live in Istanbul. Literacy levels are low by European standards at 88.3%, with 86% of the population completing primary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is 67.5 years for men and 72.1 for women. Overall GDP in 2006 is projected at US$414 billion, with GDP per capita at US$5,585.
Turkey declared itself an independent republic in 1923 with the break up of the Ottoman Empire. Its current constitution dates to 1982 and proclaims Turkey’s system of government as democratic, parliamentary and secular. It provides for a president who
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is the head of state and whose powers are not strictly defined but tend to depend in practice on the force of personality of the incumbent, selected by the parliament for a seven-year term. The prime minister heads the council of ministers and both are responsible to parliament. Parliament is the unicameral Grand National Assembly with 550 members who serve a five year term. The current president is Ahmet Necdet Sezer and the prime minister is Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AP).
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of Turkey is estimated at 74.1 million, 50.4% of whom are male and 48.6% female. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of approximately 28 million in the next 45 years, bringing the number of Turkish inhabitants up to 101.2 million by 2050. This represents an increase of 38% over this time, which is a very sizeable increase compared with other European countries. The median age of the population today is 26.3 years and this is forecast to increase to 39.5 by 2050; 8.0% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 22.8% by 2050.
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Figure 1 Turkey: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
80
120,000
70
101,208
60
80,000
68.7
50 68,234
65.0
40 30.7
60,000
64.2
30
22.8
40,000 18.0
20
17.0 20,000
8.5
10
Population ('000s)
% population
100,000
90,565
5.1
0
0 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS In 2006 total GDP in Turkey is projected to be US$414 billion, with GDP growth at 6.0%. GDP growth in 2005 was at 7.4% and a figure of 5.0% is forecast for 2007. Inflation is set to exceed 6% for the full year 2006 before falling to around 4.5% in 2007.
The Turkish economy is currently undergoing a transition from heavy reliance on agriculture and heavy industry towards a more diverse market economy with more emphasis on the services sector. The authorities began the process of opening up the economy in the 1980s but in the 1990s a series of coalition governments with weak economic policies brought about a continuing boom and bust cycle culminating in a serious banking and economic crisis in 2001. Since then, however, there has been a solid recovery due to sound monetary and fiscal policies and structural reforms. Inflation has been lowered considerably, interest rates are down, the budget deficit has been greatly reduced, several large state enterprises have been privatized and the currency
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has been stabilized. This has led to increased foreign direct investment. To ensure continued growth and stability in Turkey, the authorities need to continue with its reform policy. Turkey is now in accession negotiations to join the European Union.
Table 1 Turkey: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 71,168 1.50 0.75 359,763 131,555 240,596 472,955 3,381 6,646 5.8 22.5 280.4 65,637 46,576
2004 72,173 1.42 0.80 430,511 143,263 302,561 528,741 4,192 7,326 8.9 9.9 304.6 96,368 61,683
2005 73,193 1.34 0.84 487,202 153,865 362,461 569,248 4,952 7,777 7.4 5.4 329.5 98,998 71,928
2006p 74,145 1.33 0.88 548,779 163,097 414,079 609,987 5,585 8,227 6.0 6.3 350.1 n/a n/a
2007f 75,110 1.35 0.90 602,078 171,252 446,513 653,298 5,945 8,698 5.0 4.5 365.9 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 81 daily newspapers in print in Turkey in 2004, 43 of which are nationals and 38 of which are regional/local titles. Total circulation was 4.9 million, up 22.3% from 2000. The top selling daily is Hurri Posta which has a circulation of 542,000, followed by Posta Hurriyet with a circulation of 494,000. In 2004 newspaper advertising revenue was US$433.5 million.
In 2004, there were 176 consumer magazine titles in Turkey, an increase of 67% compared to 2001. Some 47% of revenue was derived from advertising and 53% from sales. The main consumer magazine publishers in 2004 included Dooan and Burda Rizzoli. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$68.1 million, while total print advertising expenditure in Turkey was at US$1,307 million in 2004, 105% up on 1995.
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Tobacco advertising and advertising of OTC drugs is banned by law, while advertising of alcohol and advertising to children is permitted.
Internet usage levels stood at around 14% in 2005, up from 3% in 2000. Broadband penetration is low at just over 2%.
Table 2 Turkey: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of paid-for dailies Circulation of paid-for dailies ('000s) Magazine trends Number of consumer titles
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1,069.7 980.7 455.0
570.6 285.9 213.4
717.2 327.1 240.8
878.8 365.1 281.2
1,307.4 568.0 433.5
434.7
25.9
31.2
33.3
68.1
91.0 91.7 n/a
46.6 50.1 n/a
55.1 45.6 n/a
50.6 41.5 n/a
66.4 43.4 n/a
45 4,047
45 3,281
55 3,306
73 4,433
81 4,948
n/a
105
104
126
176
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
Figure 2 Turkey: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 14.0
14
% population
12 10.2
10 8
7.5
6 4
5.5 4.0 2.9 2.1
2 0.0
0 2000
2001
0.0 2002
0.3 2003
0.7 2004
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
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2005
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The Turkish print market was valued at TL2.79 billion (US$2.07 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 9.5% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 3% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of almost 20% in absolute terms and 2.4% in real terms.
Table 3 Turkey: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
TL million, current prices TL million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
3,050.5
% change 20052006 9.5
CAGR (%) 20012006 19.6
1,249.1
2,785.8
2,554.7
2,785.8
2,870.7
3.0
2.4
$1,001.8
$2,072.6
$2,301.8
11.1
18.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Flexo represents the single largest segment of the Turkish market across print processes, with flexo printing output valued at TL1.28 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 6% in absolute terms in 2006. Coldset web offset is the single largest component of offset litho printing with output at TL325 million ahead of sheetfed at TL293 million, with heatset web offset standing at TL279 million. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at TL150 million and TL164 million respectively in 2005, with screen and flexo to some extent losing market share.
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Table 4 Turkey: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (TL million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
400.2 131.1 269.1 144.7 124.4 27.8 612.0 52.5 6.7 28.7 35.7 85.4 1,249.1
896.0 293.0 603.0 324.5 278.5 60.5 1,275.5 94.7 14.5 150.2 163.8 130.5 2,785.8
1,009.4 330.2 679.2 365.7 313.5 67.4 1,354.5 94.6 16.2 168.1 189.1 151.3 3,050.5
% change 2005-2006 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.7 12.6 11.2 6.2 -0.2 11.2 12.0 15.4 15.9 9.5
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.3 17.2 12.5 19.3 42.5 39.6 12.1 19.6
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 5 Turkey: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$321.1 105.2 215.9 116.1 99.8 22.3 490.9 42.1 5.4 23.0 28.6 68.5 $1,001.8
$666.6 218.0 448.6 241.4 207.2 45.0 948.9 70.5 10.8 111.7 121.9 97.1 $2,072.6
$761.7 249.1 512.6 276.0 236.6 50.8 1,022.0 71.3 12.2 126.8 142.7 114.2 $2,301.8
% change 2005-2006 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 12.8 7.7 1.3 12.8 13.5 17.1 17.6 11.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 18.9 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 17.9 15.8 11.1 17.9 40.7 37.9 10.7 18.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of TL1.38 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 6% in 2006. Other key fast-growth areas in recent years include advertising sectors such as inserts, coupons and posters.
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Table 6 Turkey: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (TL million, current prices) Product
2001
2005
2006p
Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total
48.8 23.9 6.3 93.4 132.9 1.4 89.4
92.6 45.3 12.1 175.9 252.7 10.7 320.5
18.7 2.2 32.4 16.5 24.4 662.9 464.6 179.9 18.4 23.2 72.6 1,249.1 662.9 238.1 424.8
Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
105.4 55.3 14.3 227.0 300.7 12.9 349.8
% change 20052006 13.8 22.2 17.9 29.1 19.0 20.9 9.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 16.6 18.3 17.9 19.4 17.7 55.0 31.4
74.8 10.7 117.5 31.9 46.9 1,298.2 895.2 372.3 30.6 44.5 251.6 2,785.8
83.3 12.3 128.5 36.7 54.5 1,379.4 945.5 398.7 35.2 58.9 231.5 3,050.5
11.4 15.4 9.4 14.9 16.1 6.3 5.6 7.1 14.8 32.4 -8.0 9.5
34.8 41.6 31.7 17.4 17.5 15.8 15.3 17.3 13.8 20.4 26.1 19.6
1,298.2 478.6 819.6
1,379.4 512.6 866.8
6.3 7.1 5.8
15.8 16.6 15.3
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 Turkey: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product
2001
2005
2006p
Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total
$39.2 19.2 5.0 74.9 106.6 1.2 71.7
$68.9 33.7 9.0 130.9 188.0 7.9 238.4
15.0 1.7 26.0 13.2 19.5 531.7 372.7 144.3 14.8 18.6 58.2 $1,001.8 $531.7 191.0 340.7
Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
$79.5 41.8 10.8 171.3 226.9 9.7 263.9
% change 2005-2006 15.4 23.9 19.6 30.9 20.7 22.6 10.7
CAGR (%) 2001-2006 15.2 16.9 16.5 18.0 16.3 53.2 29.8
55.6 7.9 87.4 23.8 34.9 965.8 666.0 277.0 22.8 33.1 187.2 $2,072.6
62.9 9.3 97.0 27.7 41.1 1,040.8 713.4 300.9 26.5 44.4 174.7 $2,301.8
13.0 17.0 10.9 16.5 17.7 7.8 7.1 8.6 16.4 34.3 -6.7 11.1
33.1 39.9 30.1 16.0 16.0 14.4 13.9 15.8 12.4 19.0 24.6 18.1
$965.8 356.1 609.7
$1,040.8 386.8 654.0
7.8 8.6 7.3
14.4 15.2 13.9
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 Turkey: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
11.9 4.8 3.9 0.7 16.3 2.4 0.4 3.1 4.0 5.1 4.7
% change 2005-06 -9.1 -3.6 -1.9 -5.9 -0.3 -18.5 -9.2 7.7 6.3 0.1 -0.4
1.6 3.0 4.5 61.8
-12.8 7.9 -0.4 -2.7
2006
13.7 5.3 4.5 0.9 18.6 1.7 0.2 4.3 6.4 5.8 5.3
% change 2006-11 15.9 11.3 15.1 25.4 14.0 -26.9 -44.4 37.0 58.7 14.1 13.5
1.4 3.9 5.3 72.2
-12.0 27.3 18.2 16.7
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 Turkey: Printing Machinery (TL million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
17.2 6.9 5.7 1.1 23.6 3.4 0.6 4.5 5.8 7.4 6.8
% change 2005-06 -2.3 11.4 12.7 7.9 21.6 -1.0 6.5 28.4 40.8 34.0 17.7
2.4 4.4 6.4 89.4
3.0 27.6 4.7 14.7
2006
19.9 7.7 6.5 1.3 26.9 2.5 0.3 6.2 9.3 8.4 7.7
% change 2006-11 15.9 7.0 39.9 -3.9 21.8 9.7 -24.2 199.7 133.6 9.4 23.6
2.1 5.6 7.6 104.3
14.0 28.8 8.3 26.8
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 10 Turkey: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
3.5
% change 2005-06 -4.9
7.5 2.5 5.0 1.3 3.7 16.0
12.1 16.3 10.1 -1.7 -8.7 1.6
2006
4.3
% change 2006-11 21.9
11.1 3.9 7.2 1.6 4.5 21.5
48.4 56.4 44.5 21.5 21.0 34.0
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 11 Turkey: Printing Consumables (TL million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
5.1
% change 2005-06 2.2
10.8 3.6 7.2 1.9 5.4 23.2
20.5 25.0 18.4 5.7 -1.8 9.2
2006
6.2
% change 2006-11 21.9
16.1 5.6 10.4 2.3 6.6 31.1
48.4 56.4 44.5 21.5 21.0 34.0
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 12 Turkey: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 9.0 10.0 8.6 1.8 37.5 2.6 0.4 4.0 4.8 3.4 82.2
% change 2005-06 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.1 -2.6 -8.4 -7.1 2.7 12.6 -1.1 0.3
2011 12.8 14.2 12.1 2.5 46.6 2.6 0.4 13.3 12.8 4.6 121.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2006-11 41.5 42.0 41.6 36.0 24.4 1.1 1.9 229.6 163.2 36.1 48.4
Table 13 Turkey: Printing Inks (TL million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 13.1 14.4 12.4 2.7 54.1 3.8 0.6 5.8 7.0 4.9 118.8
% change 2005-06 11.1 11.2 11.0 9.7 4.7 -1.5 -0.1 10.4 21.1 6.4 7.9
2011 18.5 20.5 17.5 3.6 67.3 3.8 0.6 19.2 18.4 6.7 176.2
% change 2006-11 41.5 42.0 41.6 36.0 24.4 1.1 1.9 229.6 163.2 36.1 48.4
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 Turkey: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
16.2 102.9 294.8 45.1 159.1
% change 2005-06 -4.2 -4.8 -3.1 -5.4 1.3
691.6 6.9 74.7 27.5 55.4 1,474.1
2006
18.3 169.7 330.7 83.2 195.8
% change 2006-11 12.8 64.9 12.2 84.7 23.1
-2.4 -10.2 17.1 7.2
1,114.7 8.7 124.5 45.8
61.2 25.2 66.6 66.6
-1.6 -1.4
69.4 2,160.8
25.2 46.6
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011
Table 15 Turkey: Printing Substrates (TL million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
23.4 148.7 426.0 65.1 229.9
% change 2005-06 3.0 2.3 4.2 1.7 8.9
999.4 10.0 108.0 39.7 80.1 2,130.3
2006
26.4 245.3 477.9 120.2 283.0
% change 2006-11 12.8 64.9 12.2 84.7 23.1
4.9 -3.5 25.9 15.3
1,610.9 12.5 179.9 66.2
61.2 25.2 66.6 66.6
5.8 6.0
100.3 3,122.6
25.2 46.6
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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