TURKISH SHIPPING
TURKISH SHIPPING
Affinity (Shipping) LLP, 44th Floor, The Leadenhall Building, 122 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 8EE, United Kingdoom
T. +44 (0) 20 3696 7110 F. +44 (0) 20 3696 7111
E. [email protected] W. affinityship.com
Turkish Commercial Shipping Characteristics 2%
3%
Turkish Fleet Capacity (Cgt)
Flags of Registration preferred by Turks
9%
3%
8% Turkey
38%
Malta
Marshall Is.
12%
49% 51%
10% 29% Panama
Liberia
Cook Is. 2%
11% Dry Bulk
Russia
Oil Tanker
LPG
Other
Turkish Orderbook (Cgt)
24%
16%
Average Age of the Turkish Fleet Years old
Container
Other
33%
25 20
15
26%
10 5 0
25% 2006
2007
2008
2009 All Sectors
2010 Dry Bulk
2011
2012
Oil Tanker
2013
2014
2015 Dry Bulk
Oil Tanker
Container
Other
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping Fleet Capacity and Market Share
Mn Cgt
16
Fleet Capacity
2.3%
Market Share
15
2.2%
14
2.1%
13
2.0%
12
1.9%
11
1.8%
10
1.7%
9
1.6%
8
1.5% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
y-o-y % Growth
14% Turkey
12%
World
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
-2% -4%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 3
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping Fleet Capacity by Vessel type 16
Mn Cgt
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 2007
2008
Oil Tank
2009
2010
Dry Bulk
2011
2012
Container
2013
2014
LPG
2015
2016
Other 4
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping contracts and deliveries Mn Cgt
3.5
3.5% Ordered by Turks
Market Share
3.0
3.0%
2.5
2.5%
2.0
2.0%
1.5
1.5%
1.0
1.0%
0.5
0.5%
0.0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.6
3.2%
Mn Cgt
Delivered to Turks
Market Share
1.4
2.8%
1.2
2.4%
1.0
2.0%
0.8
1.6%
0.6
1.2%
0.4
0.8%
0.2
0.4%
0.0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
5
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping Orderbook & Market Share – Orderbook by Vessel type Mn Cgt
6
3.5% Orderbook
Market Share 3.0%
5
2.5%
4
2.0% 3 1.5% 2
1.0%
1
0.5%
0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Mn Cgt
6 Oil Tank
Dry Bulk
Container
LPG
Other
5 4 3 2 1 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 6
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Oil Tanker Fleet Capacity and Market Share Mn Dwt
9
Fleet Capacity
1.8%
Market Share
8
1.6%
7
1.4%
6
1.2%
5
1.0%
4
0.8%
3
0.6%
2
0.4%
1
0.2%
0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
50% y-o-y % Growth
Turkey
World
40% 30% 20% 10%
0% -10% -20% -30% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 7
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Oil Tanker NB contracts and deliveries 3.5
7%
Mn Dwt
Ordered by Turks
6%
2.5
5%
2.0
4%
1.5
3%
1.0
2%
0.5
1%
0.0
0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2.1
Mn Dwt
Market Share
3.0
2014
2015
Delivered to Turks
2016
Market Share
7%
1.8
6%
1.5
5%
1.2
4%
0.9
3%
0.6
2%
0.3
1%
0.0
0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 8
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Dry Bulk Fleet Capacity and Market Share
Mn Dwt
18
3.0% Fleet Capacity
16
Market Share
2.8%
14
2.6%
12
2.4%
10
2.2%
8
2.0%
6
1.8%
4
1.6%
2
1.4%
0
1.2% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
y-o-y % Growth
35% Turkey
30%
World
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 9
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Dry Bulk NB contracts and deliveries Mn Dwt
8
4.8%
7
Ordered by Turks
Market Share
6
3.6%
5
3.0%
4
2.4%
3
1.8%
2
1.2%
1
0.6%
0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
4.0
4.0% Delivered to Turks
Mn Dwt
4.2%
Market Share
3.5
3.5%
3.0
3.0%
2.5
2.5%
2.0
2.0%
1.5
1.5%
1.0
1.0%
0.5
0.5%
0.0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 10
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Shipowners – All Sectors included – Demolitions
# Ships
Dry Bulk carriers
16
Mn Dwt
0.5
12
0.4
8
0.3
4
0.2
0
0.1 2014
2015
2016 Mn Dwt 0.04
Turkish Oil Tanker Demolitions
4
# Ships
Mn Dwt 0.6
Turkish Dry Bulk Demolitions
20
Oil Tanker
Mn Dwt
3
0.03
2
0.02
1
0.01
0
0.00
# Ships
2014
2015
2016
Turkish Commercial Ship Demolitions
50
All commercial ships
Mn Cgt
Mn Cgt 0.5
40
0.4
30
0.3
20
0.2
10
0.1
0
0.0 2014
2015
2016 11
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Shipbuilding
1.0
Fleet Capacity ordered at Turkish shipyards Tank
0.8
Gen
0.6
Bulk
Cont
Pass
LPG
RoRo
Mn Cgt
Mn Cgt
Orderbook of Turkish shipyards 1.6 Tank
Bulk
Cont
LPG
Gen
Pass
RoRo
1.4
0.4
1.2
0.2
1.0
0.0
Mn Cgt
0.8
1.0 0.8 0.6
0.6
Fleet Capacity delivered by Turkish shipyards Tank
Bulk
Cont
LPG
Gen
Pass
RoRo
0.4 0.2
0.4 0.2
0.0
0.0
12
Affinity Global Offices
H
SI
B L
H
SE
P
SY M
LONDON
SINGAPORE
SEOUL
Dry Cargo
Sale & Purchase
Sale & Purchase
Tankers
Newbuilding
LNG
SA
Newbuilding
Dry Cargo
HOUSTON Sale & Purchase
Tankers
Tankers
SANTIAGO LNG
Finance
Research
Valuations
S Y D N E Y, M E L B O U R N E & PERTH
BEIJING Tankers
Dry Cargo
Dry Cargo Dry Cargo
Tankers 13
Disclaimer The information contained within this report is given in good faith based on the current market situation at the time of preparing this report and as such is specific to that point only. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation and collation of information in this report Affinity (Shipping) LLP (and all associated and affiliated companies) does not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors of fact or opinion based on such facts. Some industry information relating to the shipping industry can be difficult to find or establish. Some data may not be available and may need to be estimated or assessed and where such data may be limited or unavailable subjective assessment may have to be used.
No market analysis can guarantee accuracy. The usual fundamentals may not always govern the markets, for example psychology, market cycles and external events (such as acts of god or developments in future technologies) could cause markets to depart from their natural/usual course. Such external events have not been considered
as part of this analysis. Historical market behaviour does not predict future market behaviour and shipping is an inherently high risk business. You should therefore consider a variety of information and potential outcomes when making decisions based on the information contained in this report. All information provided by Affinity (Shipping) LLP is without any guarantee whatsoever. Affinity (Shipping) LLP or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will not be liable for any consequences thereof. This report is intended solely for the information of the email recipient account and must not be passed or divulged to any third parties whatsoever without the written permission of Affinity (Shipping) LLP. Affinity (Shipping) LLP accepts no liability to any third parties whatsoever. If permission is granted, you must disclose the full report including all disclaimers, and not selected excerpts which may be taken out of context.
© 2016 Affinity Research LLP Affinity Research LLP Floor 44, The Leadenhall Building, London EC3A 8EE Tel +44 (0) 20 3142 0100 Email [email protected]
14
Affinity (Shipping) LLP, 44th Floor, The Leadenhall Building, 122 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 8EE, United Kingdoom
T. +44 (0) 20 3696 7110 F. +44 (0) 20 3696 7111
E. [email protected] W. affinityship.com
Turkish Commercial Shipping Characteristics 2%
3%
Turkish Fleet Capacity (Cgt)
Flags of Registration preferred by Turks
9%
3%
8% Turkey
38%
Malta
Marshall Is.
12%
49% 51%
10% 29% Panama
Liberia
Cook Is. 2%
11% Dry Bulk
Russia
Oil Tanker
LPG
Other
Turkish Orderbook (Cgt)
24%
16%
Average Age of the Turkish Fleet Years old
Container
Other
33%
25 20
15
26%
10 5 0
25% 2006
2007
2008
2009 All Sectors
2010 Dry Bulk
2011
2012
Oil Tanker
2013
2014
2015 Dry Bulk
Oil Tanker
Container
Other
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping Fleet Capacity and Market Share
Mn Cgt
16
Fleet Capacity
2.3%
Market Share
15
2.2%
14
2.1%
13
2.0%
12
1.9%
11
1.8%
10
1.7%
9
1.6%
8
1.5% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
y-o-y % Growth
14% Turkey
12%
World
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
-2% -4%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 3
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping Fleet Capacity by Vessel type 16
Mn Cgt
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 2007
2008
Oil Tank
2009
2010
Dry Bulk
2011
2012
Container
2013
2014
LPG
2015
2016
Other 4
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping contracts and deliveries Mn Cgt
3.5
3.5% Ordered by Turks
Market Share
3.0
3.0%
2.5
2.5%
2.0
2.0%
1.5
1.5%
1.0
1.0%
0.5
0.5%
0.0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.6
3.2%
Mn Cgt
Delivered to Turks
Market Share
1.4
2.8%
1.2
2.4%
1.0
2.0%
0.8
1.6%
0.6
1.2%
0.4
0.8%
0.2
0.4%
0.0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
5
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Commercial Shipping Orderbook & Market Share – Orderbook by Vessel type Mn Cgt
6
3.5% Orderbook
Market Share 3.0%
5
2.5%
4
2.0% 3 1.5% 2
1.0%
1
0.5%
0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Mn Cgt
6 Oil Tank
Dry Bulk
Container
LPG
Other
5 4 3 2 1 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 6
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Oil Tanker Fleet Capacity and Market Share Mn Dwt
9
Fleet Capacity
1.8%
Market Share
8
1.6%
7
1.4%
6
1.2%
5
1.0%
4
0.8%
3
0.6%
2
0.4%
1
0.2%
0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
50% y-o-y % Growth
Turkey
World
40% 30% 20% 10%
0% -10% -20% -30% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 7
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Oil Tanker NB contracts and deliveries 3.5
7%
Mn Dwt
Ordered by Turks
6%
2.5
5%
2.0
4%
1.5
3%
1.0
2%
0.5
1%
0.0
0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2.1
Mn Dwt
Market Share
3.0
2014
2015
Delivered to Turks
2016
Market Share
7%
1.8
6%
1.5
5%
1.2
4%
0.9
3%
0.6
2%
0.3
1%
0.0
0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 8
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Dry Bulk Fleet Capacity and Market Share
Mn Dwt
18
3.0% Fleet Capacity
16
Market Share
2.8%
14
2.6%
12
2.4%
10
2.2%
8
2.0%
6
1.8%
4
1.6%
2
1.4%
0
1.2% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
y-o-y % Growth
35% Turkey
30%
World
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 9
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Dry Bulk NB contracts and deliveries Mn Dwt
8
4.8%
7
Ordered by Turks
Market Share
6
3.6%
5
3.0%
4
2.4%
3
1.8%
2
1.2%
1
0.6%
0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
4.0
4.0% Delivered to Turks
Mn Dwt
4.2%
Market Share
3.5
3.5%
3.0
3.0%
2.5
2.5%
2.0
2.0%
1.5
1.5%
1.0
1.0%
0.5
0.5%
0.0
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 10
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Shipowners – All Sectors included – Demolitions
# Ships
Dry Bulk carriers
16
Mn Dwt
0.5
12
0.4
8
0.3
4
0.2
0
0.1 2014
2015
2016 Mn Dwt 0.04
Turkish Oil Tanker Demolitions
4
# Ships
Mn Dwt 0.6
Turkish Dry Bulk Demolitions
20
Oil Tanker
Mn Dwt
3
0.03
2
0.02
1
0.01
0
0.00
# Ships
2014
2015
2016
Turkish Commercial Ship Demolitions
50
All commercial ships
Mn Cgt
Mn Cgt 0.5
40
0.4
30
0.3
20
0.2
10
0.1
0
0.0 2014
2015
2016 11
AFFINITY RESEARCH – TURKISH SHIPPING
Turkish Shipbuilding
1.0
Fleet Capacity ordered at Turkish shipyards Tank
0.8
Gen
0.6
Bulk
Cont
Pass
LPG
RoRo
Mn Cgt
Mn Cgt
Orderbook of Turkish shipyards 1.6 Tank
Bulk
Cont
LPG
Gen
Pass
RoRo
1.4
0.4
1.2
0.2
1.0
0.0
Mn Cgt
0.8
1.0 0.8 0.6
0.6
Fleet Capacity delivered by Turkish shipyards Tank
Bulk
Cont
LPG
Gen
Pass
RoRo
0.4 0.2
0.4 0.2
0.0
0.0
12
Affinity Global Offices
H
SI
B L
H
SE
P
SY M
LONDON
SINGAPORE
SEOUL
Dry Cargo
Sale & Purchase
Sale & Purchase
Tankers
Newbuilding
LNG
SA
Newbuilding
Dry Cargo
HOUSTON Sale & Purchase
Tankers
Tankers
SANTIAGO LNG
Finance
Research
Valuations
S Y D N E Y, M E L B O U R N E & PERTH
BEIJING Tankers
Dry Cargo
Dry Cargo Dry Cargo
Tankers 13
Disclaimer The information contained within this report is given in good faith based on the current market situation at the time of preparing this report and as such is specific to that point only. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation and collation of information in this report Affinity (Shipping) LLP (and all associated and affiliated companies) does not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors of fact or opinion based on such facts. Some industry information relating to the shipping industry can be difficult to find or establish. Some data may not be available and may need to be estimated or assessed and where such data may be limited or unavailable subjective assessment may have to be used.
No market analysis can guarantee accuracy. The usual fundamentals may not always govern the markets, for example psychology, market cycles and external events (such as acts of god or developments in future technologies) could cause markets to depart from their natural/usual course. Such external events have not been considered
as part of this analysis. Historical market behaviour does not predict future market behaviour and shipping is an inherently high risk business. You should therefore consider a variety of information and potential outcomes when making decisions based on the information contained in this report. All information provided by Affinity (Shipping) LLP is without any guarantee whatsoever. Affinity (Shipping) LLP or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will not be liable for any consequences thereof. This report is intended solely for the information of the email recipient account and must not be passed or divulged to any third parties whatsoever without the written permission of Affinity (Shipping) LLP. Affinity (Shipping) LLP accepts no liability to any third parties whatsoever. If permission is granted, you must disclose the full report including all disclaimers, and not selected excerpts which may be taken out of context.
© 2016 Affinity Research LLP Affinity Research LLP Floor 44, The Leadenhall Building, London EC3A 8EE Tel +44 (0) 20 3142 0100 Email [email protected]
14
