UK Transport and climate change data - Factsheet
Factsheets UK Transport and Climate Change data DfT have produced a set of factsheets to provide a useful guide to the sources of UK climate change data available on transport. There are 5 factsheets in the set, these are: 1.
Overview of UK Transport and Climate Change
2.
Road Transport
3.
Railways
4.
Shipping
5.
Aviation
NOTE: All data contained in these factsheets is published elsewhere
Page 1 of 20
Factsheet 1 Overview of UK Transport and Climate Change Introduction
Carbon dioxide:
The UK has a number of goals, both international and domestic, for reducing emissions:
Between 1990 and 2008, CO2 emissions fell by 10.1% to 532.8 million tonnes of CO 2 .
Provisional 2009 data show CO2 emissions to be 480.9 million tonnes of CO 2 , a reduction of 18.9% since 1990.
Transport GHG and CO 2 emissions:
For the transport sector, almost all GHG emissions are from CO 2 , about 99% in 2008.
Figure 2: CO 2 and GHG Domestic Transport emissions, 1990-2009*
UK greenhouse gas and CO 2 emissions
80 60 40 20
Domestic transport
All UK emissions
2008
2009(p)
2007
2006
2005
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
*Provisional 2009 estimates are only available for CO2
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
For the period 1990-2008, transport GHG and CO 2 emissions follow the same trend, with provisional estimates for CO 2 emissions falling by 6.5% between 2008 and 2009, largely due to both lower petrol and diesel consumption. Emissions from transport are now slightly below 1990 levels (a decrease of 0.7% for CO 2 between 1990 and the provisional 2009 figure).
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
100 0 1990
Million tonnes (carbon dioxide equivalent)
Figure 1: UK emissions of greenhouse gases, 1990-2008
1996
0 1990
Between 2007 and 2008, there was a decrease of 12.0 million tonnes (-1.9%) of CO 2 equivalent.
100
1995
120
1994
In 2008, emissions from the ‘basket’ of six greenhouse gases (GHGs)1 were 19.1% below the base year (1990) at 627.6 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent.
1993
CO2
140
1992
Greenhouse Gases:
1991
Million tonnes (carbon dioxide equivalent)
GHG 160
2004
The UK Climate Change Act (November 2008) set legally binding targets for the UK to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050. A system of ‘carbon budgets’ which limit UK emissions over successive five-year periods, will set the trajectory towards 2050. The first three carbon budgets were announced in April 2009, covering the periods 2008-12, 2013-17 and 201822. They require emissions reductions of just over 22 per cent, 28 per cent and 34 per cent respectively, below 1990 levels.
Source: AEA Energy and Environment / DECC
Provisional 2009 data show GHG emissions to be 574.6 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent, a decrease of 25.7% since 1990.
1
The ‘basket’ of six GHGs consists of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, sulphur hexafluoride, perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons.
Page 2 of 20
GHG emissions from transport (NAEI)
By 2008, GHG emissions from international aviation had more than doubled (+118%) since 1990, while emissions from international shipping increased by 12%.
If international aviation and shipping were included in the UK total, emissions from both domestic and international aviation would make up 5.5% of the UK total GHG emissions (including memo items), and emissions from domestic and international shipping would be 1.9% of the total.
Figure 3: UK GHG emissions by sector, 2008 Other 14% Energy 33% Residential 13%
Figure 4: GHG emissions from UK domestic transport, by mode, 2008
International air/sea transport 6% Domestic Transport 20%
Railways, 1.8%
Business 14%
Other, 3.1%
Domestic shipping, 4.1% Domestic aviation, 1.7%
Total UK GHG emissions (inc. Memo items i.e. International transport) = 669.6 MT CO2 equivalent Other includes: Public, Agriculture, Industrial Process, Waste Management, Land Use Change Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Mopeds & motorcycles, 0.5% HGVs, 18.0%
As shown above, of the total UK emissions including memo items (669.6 MT CO2e), 26% are from domestic and international transport (173.9 MT CO2e). International aviation and shipping are excluded from the UK’s total emissions estimate, as there is no internationally agreed way of reporting them. Table 1 shows a detailed breakdown for domestic and international emissions. In 2008, domestic transport (road, rail, aviation and shipping) was the source of 21% (131.9 million tonnes) of all GHG domestic emissions in the UK EXCLUDING memo items (627.6 million tonnes), up from 16% (124.7 million tonnes out of 776.1 mt) in 1990.
Buses, 3.7%
Light duty vehicles, 12.0%
Total GHG emissions from domestic transport = 131.9 Mt CO 2 equivalent 'Other' includes: LPG emissions; Railways – stationary combustion; Road vehicle engines; Military Aircraft and Shipping and Aircraft support vehicles. Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Figure 5: GHG emissions from UK domestic and international transport by mode, 2008
Between 1990 and 2008, domestic transport GHG emissions, by source, increased by 6%. The majority of GHG emissions from transport are from road transport (see Table 1).
International shipping 4.3%
Passenger cars 41.8%
Domestic shipping 3.1% Domestic aviation 1.3%
By 2008, GHG emissions from railways (diesel trains only) had risen by 29% since 1990; representing 0.4% of the UK’s total domestic emissions by source.
By 2008, GHG emissions from domestic aviation had risen by 62% since 1990, but represented 0.4 % of the UK’s domestic emissions.
Other 2.3%
International aviation 19.8%
GHG emissions from road transport increased by 6% between 1990 and 2008. In 2008, road transport represented 18.9% of the UK’s total domestic emissions from all sources.
By 2008, GHG emissions from domestic shipping (vessel journeys between UK ports) had risen by 30% since 1990, and represented 0.9% of the UK’s total domestic emissions.
Passenger cars, 55.2%
Railways 1.4%
Mopeds & motorcycles 0.4%
HGVs 13.7%
Buses 2.8%
Light duty vehicles 9.1%
Total GHG emissions from transport (inc. Memo items) = 173.9 Mt CO 2 equivalent Other' includes: LPG emissions; Road vehicle engines; Aircraft support vehicles; Railways - stationary combustion; Military Aircraft and shipping. Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Page 3 of 20
EU-15 domestic transport CO 2 emissions
Background to data sources
Figure 6: EU-15 domestic transport CO 2 emissions, 2007
Million tonnes of CO2 All domestic transport
All 1 Sources
% of All Sources
% of EU15 transport total
Germany
151.9
841.2
18.1%
17.8%
France
136.0
397.1
34.3%
16.0%
UK
131.8
546.4
24.1%
15.5%
Italy
127.2
475.3
26.8%
14.9%
Spain
109.1
366.4
29.8%
12.8%
Netherlands
35.2
172.7
20.4%
4.1%
Belgium
25.1
114.5
21.9%
2.9%
Austria
23.9
74.2
32.3%
2.8%
Greece
23.4
113.6
20.6%
2.7%
Sweden
20.6
51.6
40.0%
2.4%
Portugal Irish Republic
18.8
62.8
30.0%
2.2%
14.1
47.5
29.8%
1.7%
Finland
14.0
66.1
21.2%
1.6%
Denmark
14.0
53.2
26.3%
1.6%
Luxembourg EU-15 total
6.6
11.8
55.5%
0.8%
851.8
3394.4
25.1%
100.0%
1. Land Use Change category has been excluded from the ‘All Sources’ total as treatment of this category can differ between countries. Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
1. National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI):
13.6% 1.8% 22.9%
Source: emissions are split by the sector producing them. Fuel type: emissions are broken down from the consumption of each type of energy. End/final user: emissions are split by the sector responsible for them, but also include the redistribution of emissions from power stations and other fuel processing industries to the sector that actually uses them.
The NAEI data is reported on the National Communication (NC) basis. International aviation and shipping are excluded from the national total, but are reported as memo items.
The geographic coverage of reported GHG and CO 2 emissions estimates by DECC are slightly different. The UK GHG total is based on emissions in the UK, and those Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man), and Overseas Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar and Montserrat) that are party to the UK ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Reporting of CO 2 emissions for the UK only incorporates Crown Dependencies, but excludes Overseas Territories.
Emissions from the transport categories in the NAEI are calculated using a combination of the volume of fuel purchased in the UK, activity data and emissions factors.
See Table 1 for latest transport GHG emissions data from the NAEI.
The latest NAEI statistics can be found on DECC’s website at:
Figure 7: Global CO 2 emissions (from fuel combustion) in 2007
% of global total
The NAEI produces emissions statistics for greenhouse gases and other air pollutants on three different bases; by source, fuel type and end user.
Global CO 2 emissions
Million tonnes of CO 2 Country level emissions: Global 28,962 Europe (EU 27) 3,926 UK 523 Transport emissions: World transport 6,632
There are two main sources of UK emissions data; the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) produced by AEA Energy & Environment and published by DECC and the Environmental Accounts produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Source: CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009 Edition), IEA/OECD 2009
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/cl imate_change/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_f inal/2008_final.aspx
Page 4 of 20
2. Environmental Accounts:
The ONS Environmental Accounts reports greenhouse gas emissions produced by UK residents and UK-registered companies on a UK industry basis. It includes emissions produced during activity by UK flagged ships, aircraft and other vehicles wherever this takes place and wherever fuel is bought, and excludes emissions from activity by foreign ships, aircraft or other vehicles. Therefore, water and air transport includes international activity.
See Table 2 for latest transport GHG emissions data from the Environmental Accounts.
More information and the latest Environmental Accounts statistics can be found on the National Statistics website at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.a sp?vlnk=3698
Further information Chapter 3 of Transport Statistics Great Britain: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublicatio ns/energyenvironment/
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climat e_change/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_final/2008_ final.aspx
NAEI website: http://www.naei.org.uk/
National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC: http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventori es/national_inventories_submissions/items/4771.php
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (September 2009): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/reporting /conversion-factors.htm
Page 5 of 20
National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) data Table 1: Estimated GHG emissions by NC source category, 1990-2008 United Kingdom
Million tonnes of GHG
1990
1998
2007
2008
111.2 73.0 9.6
117.8 76.3 12.6
122.8 75.2 16.3
118.4 72.8 15.8
3.8 23.9 0.7
4.3 23.9 0.5
5.3 24.6 0.7
4.9 23.8 0.6
0.0 0.3 13.5
0.0 0.2 11.5
0.4 0.2 13.2
0.4 0.1 13.6
Road Transport Passenger cars Light duty vehicles Buses HGVs Mopeds & motorcycles LPG emissions (all vehicles) Other (road vehicle engines) Other transport Domestic aviation Railways Railways - stationary combustion Domestic shipping Other* Total Domestic transport
1.4 1.9 0.5 4.1 5.6
1.7 2.0 0.5 3.6 3.6
2.3 2.4 0.0 5.0 3.4
2.2 2.4 0.0 5.4 3.5
124.7
129.3
136.0
Total UK emissions
776.1
705.1
Memo Items International Aviation International Shipping International transport (aviation & shipping)
15.8 6.7 22.5
Total domestic and international transport
Total UK emissions (inc. memo items)
% of 2008 total (inc. memo items)
% of 2008 total
131.9
18.9% 11.6% 2.5% 0.8% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 21.0%
17.7% 10.9% 2.4% 0.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 19.7%
639.6
627.6
100.0%
93.7%
25.4 9.0 34.5
35.8 6.8 42.6
34.4 7.5 42.0
.. .. ..
5.1% 1.1% 6.3%
147.2
163.8
178.5
173.9
..
798.6
739.6
682.2
669.6
..
100.0%
* Includes Military Aircraft and Shipping and Aircraft Support Vehicles. Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Environmental Accounts data Table 2: Estimated GHG emissions by economic sector, 1990-2007 United Kingdom
Railways Buses and coaches Freight transport by road Water transport Air transport 1 Other transport sectors Total transport industries Household use of private vehicles Total UK emissions
1990 2.0 3.9 16.1 17.0 20.3 2.1
1998 2.1 3.9 18.4 19.5 31.4 2.8
2006 2.5 3.6 18.2 19.4 43.6 2.5
2007 2.5 3.7 18.9 17.7 43.5 2.6
% of 2007 total 0.4% 0.5% 2.7% 2.5% 6.2% 0.4%
61.4
78.1
89.7
88.9
12.6%
60.5
64.8
69.4
68.9
9.8%
809.5
760.1
719.1
707.1
100.0%
GHG emissions, in Million tonnes
1. Other transport sectors include: Tubes & trams; Taxis; Transport via pipeline. Source: Environmental Accounts
Page 6 of 20
Factsheet 2 ROAD TRANSPORT: Greenhouse Gas emissions Introduction
HGV’s:
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on road transport and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Overall UK GHG emissions are decreasing; however emissions from domestic transport have increased. In particular, emissions from road transport have increased by 6% since 1990.
HGV's currently contribute 3.8% of total UK GHG emissions in comparison to 3.1% in 1990. HGV GHG peaked at 24.7 million tonnes in 1997 but have now fallen back to 1990 levels. HGV's are the second highest contributor to road transport GHG emissions.
Light duty vehicles (vans):
Emissions from vans have increased by 64% since 1990 from 9.6 million tonnes to 15.8 million tonnes in 2008, the largest percentage increase by any road transport mode. Vans contributed 2.5% of total UK GHG emissions in 2008 in comparison to 1.2% in 1990.
Road transport summary (NAEI)
Historic UK road transport CO 2 emissions
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
Figure 1: Estimated CO 2 emissions from road transport, 1970-2008
Passenger cars:
HGVs
Vans
Buses
Motorcycles
80
In 1990 petrol cars were responsible for 96% of passenger car emissions. This decreased to 69% in 2008 due to the increasing ownership of diesel cars.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Page 7 of 20
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1982
1980
1978
1972
0 1970
Since 1990, GHG emissions from passenger cars have increased slightly over time but were back to 1990 levels in 2008. Emissions decreased by 3.3% between 2007 and 2008.
Million tonnes of CO2
Passenger cars 90
1998
Summary by mode (NAEI)
Mopeds & motorcycles produced 0.6 million tonnes of GHGs in 2008, down slightly from 0.7 million tonnes in 1990.
1996
The majority of road transport emissions are from passenger cars (72.8 million tonnes in 2008), HGVs (23.8 million tonnes) and light duty vehicles (vans) (15.8 million tonnes).
1976
Between 2007 and 2008, road transport GHG emissions decreased by 3.6%, falling from its highest level in 2007 of 122.8 million tonnes.
Mopeds & motorcycles:
1974
Since 1990, GHG emissions from buses & coaches have increased by 28%. Emissions from buses & coaches reached a peak of 5.4 million tonnes in 2005. In 2008, they made up 0.8% of the UK total emissions.
1994
Since 1990, GHG emissions from road transport have increased by 6.4% from 111.2 million tonnes. This compares to a 19.1% fall for total UK emissions and an increase of 5.8% for all domestic transport.
1992
Buses & coaches:
1990
In 2008, road transport produced 90% of all GHG emissions from domestic transport, up slightly from 89% in 1990.
1988
1986
In 2008, road transport was the source of 18.9% (118.4 million tonnes) of total UK GHG domestic emissions.
1984
Emission factors
Overview of road travel demand
Figure 2: Road traffic: Cars - vehicle kilometres, 1970-2008
To estimate total GHG emissions associated with an average journey, DEFRA emission factors can be used:
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
Source: National Road Traffic Survey, DfT
Source: Guidelines to DEFRA / DECC’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, 2009
1984
1970
1. The factors for cars are estimated values for the average petrol and diesel car in the UK car fleet. This has been divided by an average car occupancy rate of 1.6 passengers to derive average emissions per passenger kilometre.
1982
69.11g CO 2 e per passenger km
1980
Average bus/coach:
1978
198.35g CO 2 e per vehicle km (124.0g CO 2 e per passenger km)
1976
Average diesel car1:
1974
207.81g CO 2 e per vehicle km (129.9g CO 2 e per passenger km)
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1972
Average petrol car :
Billion vehicle-km
Cars & Taxis
1
Further road transport emission factors are available in Annex 6 of DEFRA’s report.
Figure 3: Road traffic: Other types of vehicles - vehicle kilometres, 1970-2008 Vans
HGV
Buses
Motorcycles
70
Emission factors for road freight (kg CO 2 per tonne-km) can be found in Annex 7 of DEFRA’s report.
60 Billion vehicle-km
Use weighted emissions factors:
30 20 10 2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
0 1974
The DEFRA emission factors do not take account of how much individual cars are driven within the UK fleet. The factors therefore differ from the results obtained by dividing total CO 2 emissions from all cars (total car fuel sales) by total car kilometres driven; that is, the emission factor for the average car kilometre driven in the UK. This is because lower CO 2 emitting cars, such as newer cars and diesel cars, are on average driven more than higher CO 2 emitting cars, such as older cars and sports cars. Thus, a use or traffic weighted average car emission factor will be significantly lower than these DEFRA factors and hence the DEFRA factors do not correlate to national emissions.
40
1970
50
1972
Source: National Road Traffic Survey
For comparison purposes with other modes, a use weighted factor may be more appropriate. A vehicle use weighted figure that reflects the average (petrol and diesel) car kilometre driven for the UK fleet is currently around 158.8g CO 2 per vehicle kilometre, or about 98.8g CO 2 per passenger kilometre. It is these use weighted factors that are used in the DfT’s National Transport Model (NTM). Furthermore, car fuel economy is expected to continue improving over time and so these factors will likewise continue to fall.
Page 8 of 20
The greatest growth in motor vehicle traffic was in the period of strong economic growth in the late 1980s. There was little growth during the recession of the early 1990s, before a period of stronger growth in the mid- to late 1990s.
Since 1998, the type of vehicle that has shown the greatest proportional increase in traffic is the van. Annual van traffic increased by 34% from 1998 to 2008.
Figure 5: Historic and forecast Road traffic and CO 2 emissions, England, 1995-2035
EU-15 road transport CO 2 emissions Figure 4: EU-15 road transport CO 2 emissions, 2007
180
Million tonnes of CO 2
Forecast Historic Data
of
road
traffic
and
120 100 CO2 80 60 40 20
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
0
Source: DfT National Transport Model
Traffic on English roads, as measured by total vehicle kilometres, is forecast to continue growing, though at a gradually slow rate. For the period as a whole (2003-2035) traffic growth of 43% is forecast. This works out at an average annual rate of about 1.1%.
The central CO 2 forecast suggests that emissions will fall a little then stabilise slightly below current levels. The reduction in emissions from 2010 onwards reflects more stringer targets on vehicle fuel efficiency and biofuels, including the EU New Car CO 2 Regulation, and the Renewable Energy Directive on biofuels. The levelling out of CO 2 emissions post 2025 is explained by the fact that no further improvements to vehicle efficiency or biofuels are assumed post 2020.
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
DfT forecasts emissions
Traffic
140
% of EU-15 total 18.1% 16.0% 15.3% 14.9% 12.3% 4.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 100.0%
Index (1995=100)
Germany France UK Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Greece Sweden Portugal Irish Republic Denmark Finland Luxembourg EU-15 total
Road transport 144.1 127.4 122.0 118.7 97.8 34.5 24.3 23.2 19.8 19.4 18.2 13.8 13.2 12.3 6.6 795.2
160
CO 2
Road transport forecasts are made using the Department’s National Transport Model (NTM), a strategic multi-modal model of land-based transport in Great Britain (although results are usually published at the England level only).
Further information
The NTM comprises six modes (car driver, car passenger, rail, bus, walk and cycle) and is capable of modelling the impacts of congestion and rail over-crowding on travellers’ choice of mode. Using the NTM, central forecasts of traffic, congestion and emissions are produced for England, based on a ‘baseline scenario’ that represents a continuation of existing policies up to 2035. Forecasts for two intervening years – 2015 and 2025 – have also been produced.
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_cha nge/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_final/2008_final.aspx
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (September 2009): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/reporting/conv ersion-factors.htm
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2008): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
DfT road traffic statistics: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/roa dstraffic/traffic/
DfT National Transport Model: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/
Page 9 of 20
Factsheet 3 RAILWAYS: Greenhouse Gas emissions
Introduction
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on railways and GHG emissions.
The railways sector in the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) refers to emissions from diesel trains only. Electricity used by railways is supplied from the public distribution system so these emissions are reported under the Energy Supply section in the NAEI, see NAEI methodology below for more detail.
Currently about 40% of the rail network is electrified (in terms of track miles). This accounts for about 60% of passenger kilometres. Freight traffic is almost entirely (95%) diesel. Of total CO 2 from rail, estimates show that approximately 43% is from electric trains and 57% is from diesel.
NAEI railway GHG emissions - Methodology
The railways sector in the NAEI refers to emissions from diesel trains only. The total is the sum of three train categories: freight, intercity and regional. Emission estimates are based on train kilometres travelled and gas oil consumption, using fuel-based emission factors. DfT is working with the rail industry and the Office of Rail Regulation to improve the accuracy of future emission estimates.
Overview of railway GHG emissions
In 2008, railways (diesel trains only) were the source of 0.4% (2.4 million tonnes) of total UK greenhouse gas emissions, up from 0.2% in 1990.
In 2008, railways produced 1.8% of all greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport, up from 1.5% in 1990.
Since 1990, GHG emissions from railways increased by 29.5% from 1.9 million tonnes. This compares to a reduction of 19.1% for total UK emissions and an increase of 5.8% for all domestic transport over the same period.
The fuel consumption is distributed according to: Train km data for the three categories; Assumed mix of locomotives for each category; and Fuel consumption factors for different types of locomotive.
Figure 1: Type of railway (diesel trains) GHG emissions, by source, UK, 1990-2008
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
TOTAL
Freight
Intercity
Regional
2.5 2.0 1.5
For further information on the methodology see section "A3.3.5.2 Railways" of the Annex to the report to the UNFCCC “UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2007: Annual Report for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change” at: http://www.naei.org.uk/reports.php
1.0
Historic UK railway emissions
0.5
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0.0
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Most of the electricity used by the railways for electric traction is supplied from the public distribution system, so the emissions arising from its generation are reported under the Energy Supply sector in the NAEI.
Since 1990, GHG emissions from diesel passenger trains in the UK (intercity and regional) have increased by 49%. Total passenger kilometres (diesel and electric trains) also increased by 49% over the same period (ORR National Rail Trends).
Page 10 of 20
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
Figure 2: Railway (diesel trains) CO 2 emissions, by source, UK, 1970-2008
Overview of railway demand Figure 4: Rail passenger km travelled (diesel & electric trains), GB, 1970-2009
2.5
Passenger Kilometres (Billions)
60
1.5
1.0
0.5
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Figure 3: Historic passenger railway CO 2 emissions (diesel & electric trains), GB, 1990 and 2005 1990
2005/06
2.81
2.70
85
61
2009
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970 25 20 15 10 5
2008-09
2006-07
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
0
Source: Office for Rail Regulation
Rail passenger kilometres have grown by 65% between 1970 and 2009, with significant growth since 1994.
Rail freight tonne kilometres increased by 24% between 1986-87 and 2009, though there has been a small decline over last two years.
Emission factor (per passenger km) To estimate total GHG emissions associated with an average train journey (diesel and electric train average), DEFRA emission factors can be used:
National rail:
10
Figure 5: Freight moved by rail, GB, 1986/87-2008/09
Source: ATOC and DfT analysis
20
1986-87
There are some gaps in obtaining robust data about rail’s historic CO 2 performance, not least because only the emissions from diesel trains are reported in the NAEI. However, using historic traction electricity consumption data for England and Scotland from Network Rail, estimates of emissions from passenger historic CO 2 movements produced by the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) and the DfT are shown in Figure 3. This suggests that absolute passenger rail emissions reduced between 1990 and 2005 despite a significant increase in passenger traffic.
Total CO 2 emissions (million tonnes) [Source=ATOC] CO 2 emissions per passenger (g/pkm)
30
Source: Office for Rail Regulation
Billion net tonne kilometres
40
0
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0.0
50
1988-89
Million tonnes of CO2
2.0
61.13g CO 2 e per pkm
Source: Guidelines to DEFRA / DECC’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, 2009. Data here relate to 2007/08
Page 11 of 20
Figure 7: CO 2 emissions under ‘Business as Planned’ maximum and minimum impact of measures, GB, 2008-2022
EU-15 railway CO 2 emissions Figure 6: EU-15 railway CO 2 emissions, 2007 Million tonnes of CO 2
UK Germany France Italy Spain Denmark Austria Belgium Irish Republic Greece Finland Netherlands Portugal Sweden Luxembourg EU-15 total
Million tonnes of CO 2
Railways (diesel trains only)
% of EU-15 total
2.22 1.28 0.57 0.33 0.29 0.23 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.07
38.2% 22.0% 9.8% 5.6% 5.0% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2%
-
-
5.82
100.0%
Impact of measures 2008 MAX MIN 2014 MAX MIN 2020 MAX MIN 2022 MAX MIN
DfT forecasts of railway CO 2 emissions
2.696 2.704 2.730 2.895 2.988 3.136 3.018 3.168
Freight
Total
0.644 0.644 0.569 0.600 0.607 0.640 0.618 0.651
3.340 3.349 3.298 3.495 3.594 3.776 3.636 3.819
diesel trains 1.271 1.273 1.280 1.355 1.404 1.472 1.422 1.491
Source: Carbon Pathways Analysis, DfT, 2008 (DfT and rail industry analysis; ATOC data)
The business as planned trajectory includes the CO 2 impact of a number of CO 2 saving measures such as driver training, more efficient new trains etc. Consequently, emissions are forecast to be lower than they would be if no action were to be undertaken. The projections for 2020 anticipate a near 50% reduction from 1990 levels in terms of CO 2 emissions per passenger kilometre.
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
Total
Passenger electric trains 1.425 1.432 1.450 1.540 1.584 1.665 1.596 1.678
Further information
The demand forecasting methodology used by DfT is an elasticity based model which takes trip information from ticket sales for a given base year. This base demand is combined with growth assumptions for a number of demand drivers and elasticities of response to changes in these drivers by market segment to generate future year rail demand. These key elasticities are estimated from econometric time series analysis of the relevant rail passenger flows and demand drivers. The forecasts of rail patronage are derived from the Network Modelling Framework (NMF). The model includes industry-agreed assumptions and parameters for rail demand forecasting. The forecast of rail emissions (including freight) has been based on a further model constructed to use the NMF timetable information, combined with data and assumptions of energy consumption for each class of rolling stock that is expected to be in operation in the forecast year.
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_c hange/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_final/2008_final.as px
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (September 2009): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/reporting/co nversion-factors.htm
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2008): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
Office of Rail Regulation: http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/
Page 12 of 20
Factsheet 4 SHIPPING: Greenhouse gas emissions Introduction
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on shipping and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The UK estimates GHG emissions from both domestic and international shipping 1 .
The UK reports international emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as memo items based on bunker fuel sales. Emissions from bunker fuels do not form part of the UK's national inventory, i.e. those emissions for which the UK is responsible.
subsequently decreased by around 17% since 1998.
Emissions from international shipping are estimated from the amount of refuelling from bunkers at UK ports. However UK operators purchase most of their fuel outside of the UK.
UK international shipping in 2008 was the source of 1.1% (7.5 million tonnes) of all UK GHG emissions, a small increase from 0.8% in 1990.
In the context of other sectors, Figure 2 shows shipping emissions are a small proportion of total UK emissions. Aviation emissions are almost three times those from shipping. However, both are much less than road transport emissions.
Overview of UK shipping GHG emissions Figure 1: UK domestic and international shipping GHG emissions, 1990 and 2008 Million tonnes CO 2 e
Domestic International Total Shipping
1990 4.1 6.7
2008 5.4 7.5
10.9
12.9
Share of total UK CO 2 e emissions (inc memo items international) 1990 2008 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4%
Figure 2: Shipping’s share of total UK GHG emissions (including international), 2008 Shipping (domestic & international) 1.9%
Other 15.2%
Aviation (domestic & international) 5.5%
1.9% Road Transport 17.7%
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
In 2008, total UK shipping (domestic and international) was the source of 1.9% (12.9 million tonnes) of all UK GHG emissions (i.e. UK domestic total + memo items). Over the period 1990 to 2008, total UK shipping GHG emissions increased by 19%, from 10.9 to 12.9 million tonnes.
In 2008 UK domestic shipping was the source of 0.8% (5.4 million tonnes) of total UK GHG emissions (incl. memo items), up from 0.5% in 1990.
In 2008, emissions from international shipping were estimated to be 7.5 million tonnes. Between 1990 and 1998 emissions increased by around a third, although these emissions have
1
Residential 12.6%
Energy 32.8%
Business 14.3%
TOTAL UK GHG emissions (incl memo items) 669.6 mtCO2e ‘Other’ includes: Public; Agriculture; Industrial process; Waste; Land use change, other transport (excluding road, aviation and shipping) Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
In 2008, UK domestic and international shipping produced 7% of all UK GHG transport emissions, unchanged from 1990, but up from a low of 5% in 2002.
Historic UK shipping CO 2 emissions
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
Since 1970, total UK domestic and international shipping CO 2 emissions have reduced by 33% from 19.2 million tonnes to 12.8 million tonnes, but have increased by 19% since 1990 from 10.8 million tonnes.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) defines international shipping as “shipping between ports of different countries as opposed to domestic shipping”. Domestic shipping is defined as “shipping between ports of the same country as opposed to international shipping”. Page 13 of 20
Figure 3: UK domestic and international shipping CO 2 emissions, 1970- 2008 All shipping
International shipping
UK ports international traffic, measured in tonnes lifted, grew by 73% between 1970 and 2008.
Between 1970 and 2008, total demand for UK port services (UK international and UK domestic ports traffic) has grown by 52%, while CO 2 emissions from UK domestic and UK international shipping, based on bunker fuel sales, have shown an overall decline of 33%.
Domestic shipping
25 Million tonnes of CO 2
20 15 10 5
EU-15 shipping CO 2 emissions
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0
Figure 5: EU-15 shipping emissions, 2007
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Million tonnes of CO2
Since 1970, CO 2 emissions from UK domestic CO 2 shipping have risen 81% from 3.0 million tonnes to 5.4 million tonnes. In comparison to a reduction of 22% for total domestic UK emissions since 1970 and an increase of 83% for domestic transport. Much of the growth has occurred in the last few years.
CO 2 emissions from UK international shipping show a 54% fall between 1970 and 2008. This overall fall includes a 67% fall, from 16.2 million tonnes to 5.3 million tonnes, between 1973 and 1981. The ensuing period to 2008 shows emissions fluctuating around a long-run average of 6.2 million tonnes per annum.
This section presents trends in demand for UK domestic and international shipping services, as measured by tonnes lifted at UK ports, for the period 1970 to 2008 (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 UK ports domestic and international traffic, 19702008 International
Millions of tonnes lifted per annum
450
International shipping
Total
% of EU-15 total
Netherlands
0.61
51.38
52.0
27.5%
Belgium
0.47
30.43
30.9
16.4%
Spain
3.26
26.85
30.1
15.9%
Italy
4.97
7.76
12.7
6.7%
France
3.00
9.34
12.3
6.5%
Greece
2.11
10.01
12.1
6.4%
UK
4.93
6.91
11.8
6.3%
Germany
0.53
9.92
10.5
5.5%
Sweden
0.44
7.42
7.9
4.2%
Denmark
0.45
3.56
4.0
2.1%
Finland
0.58
1.49
2.1
1.1%
Portugal
0.21
1.76
2.0
1.0%
-
0.36
0.4
0.2%
0.07
..
0.1
0.0%
Irish Republic
Overview of UK demand for domestic and international shipping services
Domestic shipping
Austria Luxembourg EU-15 total
-
0.0
0.0%
167.19
188.8
100.0%
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
International shipping GHG allocation methodology issues
emissions
There is no internationally agreed method of allocating international shipping (and international aviation) GHG emissions to individual nation states.
At present a nation’s estimated marine bunker fuel sales to international maritime users are the basis of GHG emissions reported to the UNFCCC. International shipping (and aviation) emissions are reported as “memo items”. Memo items do not form part of national inventories for which the nation is responsible.
This section presents results using some of the alternative allocation methods.
Domestic
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
0
Source: DfT Maritime Statistics
21.64
UK ports domestic traffic, measured in tonnes lifted, grew by 11% between 1970 and 2008. Page 14 of 20
1. NAEI bunker fuel sales method Global shipping emissions
NAEI emissions estimates are calculated using UK refiners’ declared sales of fuel to maritime users, and are based upon only those refiners’ best estimates of the final use – domestic or international shipping – to which marine bunker fuel is put. Therefore, accurate disaggregation of UK marine bunker fuel sales between domestic and international shipping services is difficult. For example, because a vessel can operate domestically and then internationally on the same tank of fuel, or because marine bunkers are sold through third parties.
Vessels, when possible, buy fuel where prices are lowest. Emissions measured on fuel sales are therefore sensitive to the relative price of fuel available in the UK relative to other bunker markets. Currently, the cost of heavy fuel oil available in the UK market is approximately 8 to 10% higher than that available in Rotterdam.
NAEI estimates total GHG emissions from UK domestic and international shipping were 12.9 million tonnes in 2008.
Figure 6: Shipping CO 2 emissions (2007)1 Sector International shipping2 Total shipping
The ONS Environmental Accounts reports emissions produced by UK residents and UKregistered companies on a UK industry basis. It includes emissions produced during activity by UK-owned shipping wherever this takes place, wherever fuel is bought, and whatever nations’ cargoes may be carried. ONS estimate total GHG emissions from UKowned shipping for 2007 to be 17.7 million tonnes (50% higher than the 2007 NAEI bunker fuel sales estimate at 11.8 mtCO 2 e).
3. Vessel activity method
Individual vessel movement data can be used to build up an estimate of shipping's fuel use and emissions.
A vessel activity-based methodology employed by Entec (2005) estimated emissions based on movements within waters up to 200 miles around the European Union allocated to country by departure/destination. This method estimated total UK shipping CO 2 emissions were up to 146% higher than the same study's UK estimate based on bunker fuel sales.
Consensus Estimate MtCO 2 1 870 1050
Source: IMO (2009) 1 2
All non-military ships greater than 100 GT. Excludes domestic shipping and fishing.
International Maritime Organisation (IMO) (2009) (Figure 6) used an activity-based method to construct an estimate of the total global CO 2 emissions from shipping. This method led to a consensus estimate of approximately 1050 million tonnes of CO 2 emitted in 2007 (approximately 2.7% of total global CO 2 emissions in 2007). The uncertainty range is around +/- 20% from the central estimates presented.
IMO (2009) concluded that declared marine fuel sales data do not provide a complete picture of energy consumption by ships engaged in domestic and international trade.
For international shipping, the IMO (2009) activitybased method leads to an estimate that is approximately 43% greater than International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates of the CO 2 emissions from the combustion of international maritime bunker fuel in IEA (2009) (approximately 610 million tonnes of CO 2 in 2007).
International marine fuel statistics, collected since the 1973 inception of the IEA, were not originally intended to measure the total energy used by ships engaged in global commerce.
CO 2 emissions from global shipping are on a strongly rising trend as long-term world trade growth significantly outstrips global GDP growth. Scenarios in IMO (2009) suggest that the total global CO 2 emissions from international shipping could grow to between approximately 1.9 and 2.7 billion tonnes of CO 2 in 2050.
2. Ownership method
Estimation method Activity based Activity based
Page 15 of 20
Further information
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/a lltables.htm
Guidelines to DEFRA greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (June 2008): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/envrp/conve rsion-factors.htm
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2008): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
IMO (2009) 2nd IMO GHG Study 2009: http://www.imo.org/includes/blastData.asp/doc_id=12612/G HG%20StudyFINAL.pdf
IEA (2009) CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009 Edition): Highlights: http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/
2005 European Commission study http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/task2_so2.pdf
DfT Maritime Statistics: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/ maritime/
Page 16 of 20
Factsheet 5 AVIATION: Greenhouse Gas emissions
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on aviation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Figure 2: Aviation’s share of total UK GHG emissions (including international), 2008 Shipping (domestic & international) 1.9%
Domestic aviation refers to flights between UK airports. International aviation refers to flights departing UK airports for an overseas destination. All emissions reported here are from departing flights in line with the data reported for the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI). The UK reports international emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as memo items based on bunker fuel sales. Emissions from bunker fuels do not form part of the UK's national inventory, i.e. those emissions for which the UK is responsible.
Other 15.2%
Residential 12.6%
Aviation (domestic & international) 5.5%
Road Transport 17.7% Energy 32.8%
Business 14.3%
TOTAL UK GHG emissions (incl memo items) 669.6 mtCO2e ‘Other’ includes: Public; Agriculture; Industrial process; Waste; Land use change, other transport (excluding road, aviation and shipping).
Overview of UK aviation GHG emissions
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Figure 1: UK domestic and international aviation GHG emissions, 1990 and 2008
Historic UK aviation CO 2 emissions
2.1%
5.5%
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
In 2008, domestic and international aviation accounted for 5.5% of total UK GHG emissions (i.e. UK domestic total + memo items). This has increased from 2.1% in 1990.
Domestic
GHG emissions from aviation have grown at an annual average rate of 3.0% over the last ten years (ranging from -3.8% to 10.1%). Domestic aviation emissions account for only a very small proportion – less than half a percentage point – of total UK GHG emissions. In the context of other sectors, Figure 2 shows aviation’s emissions are much less than the energy industry, road transport, manufacturing and residential emissions.
aviation
CO 2
International
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970
Figure 3: Domestic and international emissions, 1970-2008
1996 1998 2000
36.6
This strong growth is from a very low base; aviation accounted for only 1% of total UK emissions in 1970, rising to just over 6% in 2008.
1990 1992 1994
17.1
1984 1986 1988
2008 2.2 34.4
Aviation’s share of UK emissions has grown since 1970 with some periods of slow growth reflecting factors such as slower economic growth or external demand disturbances.
1978 1980 1982
1990 1.4 15.8
1972 1974 1976
Domestic International Total Aviation
Share of total UK CO 2 emissions (inc memo items international) 1990 2008 0.2% 0.3% 2.0% 5.1%
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
M illio n to n n e s o f c a rb o n d io x id e
Million tonnes CO 2 e
2008
2002 2004 2006
Introduction
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Page 17 of 20
The share of total UK aviation CO 2 emissions accounted for by domestic flights is very small at 6%. This is lower than during the 1980s when the figure was around 8%.
Domestic aviation increased from 0.7 million tonnes in 1970, peaking at 2.5 million tonnes in
2005. Since then domestic aviation emissions have decreased to 2.2 million.
NAEI aviation CO 2 emissions - methodology
The NAEI estimates aviation CO 2 emissions based on bunker fuel use published by DECC in To produce the split between DUKES 2 . domestic and international the number of aircraft movements broken down by aircraft type at each UK airport are obtained from CAA and used. This methodology complies with the IPCC Tier 3 specification. Estimates are made for emissions from the Landing and Take Off (LTO) phase and the Cruise phase for both domestic and international aviation. For the LTO phase, fuel consumed and emissions per LTO cycle are based on detailed airport studies and engine-specific emission factors (from ICAO database). For the cruise phase, fuel use and emissions are estimated using distances (based on great circles) travelled from each airport for a set of representative aircraft.
Emission factors (per passenger km)
172.8g CO 2 e per pkm 99.2g CO 2 e per pkm 113.3g CO 2 e per pkm
Source: Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, 2009
When multiplying by distance, a 9% uplift factor should be added to take into account non-direct routes (i.e. not along the straight line great circle distances between destinations) and delays/circling.
Actual emissions per passenger will vary significantly according to the type of aircraft in use, the load, cabin class, flight route, etc.
Emission factors for air freight (kg CO2 per tonne-km) can be found in Annex 7 of DEFRA’s report.
Non-CO 2 effects
CO 2 emissions from UK airports
Understanding of the impacts of CO 2 emissions on the climate is relatively good. However, aviation has effects on climate beyond that resulting from its CO 2 emissions and for these other emissions there are significant uncertainties (although the impacts of NOx emissions are relatively better understood than other non-CO 2 emissions).
Recent research (Lee et al 2009) describes aviation’s total climate change impacts using the standardised unit Global Warming Potential. This research concludes that aviation’s total climate change impact is equivalent to between 1.3-2.0 times greater than its CO 2 emissions alone.
Figure 4: CO 2 emissions from UK airports, 2005 Million tonnes of CO 2 17.1 4.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 23.5
Share of UK departure CO 2 46% 12% 4% 2% 0% 63%
7.8
21%
0.7 5.5 37.5
2% 15% 100%
Source: UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, 2009
To estimate total GHG emissions associated with an average flight per passenger kilometre, DEFRA emission factors can be used:
Domestic Short haul Long haul
For further information on the methodology see section "A3.3.5.1 Aviation" of the Annex to the report to the UNFCCC “UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2008: Annual Report for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change” at: http://www.naei.org.uk/reports.php
Heathrow Gatwick Stansted Luton London City London Total Other UK airports Freight Residual Total
Figure 4 shows that in 2005 London airports accounted for a little under two thirds of total UK aviation CO 2 emissions. Heathrow currently accounts for nearly half of the UK's aviation CO 2 emissions. This reflects its large share of traffic and its larger proportion of long haul flights, which combine to give it a large share of seat kilometres.
It should be noted that the emissions at the airport level represent emissions from passenger flights only and do not include additional emissions from congestion during taxing, or the individual airport contribution to the freight total. The national total has been increased by around +5 mtCO 2 to ensure consistency with NAEI 2005 outturn estimates.
2
Fuel consumption data was published by Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in their annual publication ‘Digest of UK Energy Statistics’ (DUKES). Page 18 of 20
Overview of UK air travel demand
EU-15 aviation CO 2 emissions
Figure 5: Activity at UK airports: ATMs and Terminal passengers, 1970-2008
Figure 7: EU-15 aviation emissions, 2007 Million tonnes of CO 2
ATM (aircraft landings or take-offs) (Left axis) Terminal Passengers (Right axis) 2.5
200
1.5
150
1.0
100
0.5
50
Passengers per annum (Millions)
2.0 ATMs (Millions)
Domestic aviation
International aviation
Total
% of EU-15 total
UK
2.1
35.0
37.1
24.2%
Germany
2.3
25.3
27.6
18.0%
France
4.6
17.1
21.7
14.1%
Spain
7.6
10.4
18.0
11.7%
Italy
2.4
10.4
12.9
8.4%
-
11.1
11.1
7.2%
1.3
2.9
4.3
2.8%
250
Netherlands Greece Belgium
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
0 1970
0.0
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain / CAA Airport Statistics
-
3.8
3.8
2.5%
Irish Republic
0.1
3.0
3.1
2.0%
Portugal
0.4
2.5
2.9
1.9%
Air traffic movements (ATMs) and passengers have grown significantly since 1970.
Denmark
0.1
2.7
2.8
1.8%
Sweden
0.6
2.2
2.8
1.8%
Average annual growth in ATMs over 1998-2008 was 3% (ranging from -2% to +6%).
Austria
0.1
2.2
2.2
1.5%
Finland
0.3
1.7
2.0
1.3%
Average annual growth in airport passengers over 1998-2008 was 4.5% (ranging from -1.9% to +8.3%); greater than the annual average growth in emissions or ATMs. The faster growth in passengers than in ATMs meant that the number of passengers per ATM increased.
Luxembourg
-
1.3
1.3
0.9%
22.0
131.6
153.6
100.0%
Over the same period (1998-2008) average annual UK economic growth (GDP) was 2.6%.
Load factors of UK airlines have increased slightly from 77.5% in 1998 to 79.7% in 2008 on international flights; and on domestic flights, 62.1% in 1998 and 64.2% in 2008. Overall, average load factors have increased from 76.9% to 79.1% over the period.
EU-15 total
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
The UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands have high levels of CO 2 emissions from international aviation due to them having large hub airports with high volumes of international flights.
DfT forecasts of aviation passengers and CO 2 emissions
Overview of UK air freight Figure 6: Activity at UK airports: freight, 1970-2008 Freight (loaded and unloaded)
In January 2009, DfT published its forecasts of UK air passenger demand and CO 2 emissions. This covered the period 2005 to 2030 in detail with projections out to 2050. These figures are uncertain and make a range of assumptions on future trends.
2,500
Air Passenger Demand Forecasts: Tonnes (Thousands)
2,000
Figure 8: DfT forecasts of air passengers through UK airport terminals, 2005-2030
1,500
1,000
500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain / CAA Airport Statistics
Average annual growth in air freight tonnes from UK airports over 1998-2008 was 1.6% (ranging from -7.3% to +7.4%).
Million passengers per annum (mppa) 228 250 290 330 360 380
Note: Figures in forecast years rounded to 5mppa Source: ‘PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecast’ sensitivity test reported in UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, 2009
Page 19 of 20
Forecasts of passenger demand are produced assuming that each airport develops as necessary to fully utilise its current runway capacity. No further expansion of runway capacity is assumed.
Further information DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/allt ables.htm
Passengers are assumed to face their external costs of carbon emissions, valued in line with DEFRA guidance on the shadow price of carbon.
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (June 2008):
Oil price assumptions are from DECC; GDP assumptions (economic growth) are from HM Treasury.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/envrp/conversi on-factors.htm
Forecasts are periodically updated to reflect the latest available evidence.
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2009): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts (January 2009):
Aviation CO 2 forecasts:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/atf/co2forecasts09/
Figure 9: DfT forecasts of UK aviation CO 2 emissions, 20052050
Civil Aviation Authority - Statistics: Civil Aviation Authority - Environmental: http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=697&pagetype=90
Million tonnes of CO 2
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80
37.5 40 47 51 53 52
Note: Figures in forecast years rounded to nearest MtCO 2 Source: ‘PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecast’ sensitivity test reported in UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, 2009
The forecasts of UK aviation CO 2 forecasts are produced using the same assumptions as for passenger demand forecasts (see above).
The forecasts assume improvements to air traffic management and to new aircraft fuel efficiency in line with the EU manufacturers’ target. The forecasts do not assume, however, any major new technological developments, nor the adoption of sustainable alternative fuels. The industry has suggested these have the potential to offer significant reductions.
In 2012, aviation will join the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This means that the total annual CO 2 emissions from regulation flights arriving at and departing from airports in the EU will be capped at 97% of average 200406 levels in 2010, with the cap tightening to 95% of average 2004-06 levels from 2013 onwards. Emissions above the level of this cap will need to be offset by aircraft operators purchasing EU emissions allowances from other sectors of the EU ETS or project credits from the wider carbon market. This means that emissions can only increase above the level of the cap if aircraft operators pay for emissions reductions in other sectors.
Page 20 of 20
Overview of UK Transport and Climate Change
2.
Road Transport
3.
Railways
4.
Shipping
5.
Aviation
NOTE: All data contained in these factsheets is published elsewhere
Page 1 of 20
Factsheet 1 Overview of UK Transport and Climate Change Introduction
Carbon dioxide:
The UK has a number of goals, both international and domestic, for reducing emissions:
Between 1990 and 2008, CO2 emissions fell by 10.1% to 532.8 million tonnes of CO 2 .
Provisional 2009 data show CO2 emissions to be 480.9 million tonnes of CO 2 , a reduction of 18.9% since 1990.
Transport GHG and CO 2 emissions:
For the transport sector, almost all GHG emissions are from CO 2 , about 99% in 2008.
Figure 2: CO 2 and GHG Domestic Transport emissions, 1990-2009*
UK greenhouse gas and CO 2 emissions
80 60 40 20
Domestic transport
All UK emissions
2008
2009(p)
2007
2006
2005
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
*Provisional 2009 estimates are only available for CO2
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
For the period 1990-2008, transport GHG and CO 2 emissions follow the same trend, with provisional estimates for CO 2 emissions falling by 6.5% between 2008 and 2009, largely due to both lower petrol and diesel consumption. Emissions from transport are now slightly below 1990 levels (a decrease of 0.7% for CO 2 between 1990 and the provisional 2009 figure).
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
100 0 1990
Million tonnes (carbon dioxide equivalent)
Figure 1: UK emissions of greenhouse gases, 1990-2008
1996
0 1990
Between 2007 and 2008, there was a decrease of 12.0 million tonnes (-1.9%) of CO 2 equivalent.
100
1995
120
1994
In 2008, emissions from the ‘basket’ of six greenhouse gases (GHGs)1 were 19.1% below the base year (1990) at 627.6 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent.
1993
CO2
140
1992
Greenhouse Gases:
1991
Million tonnes (carbon dioxide equivalent)
GHG 160
2004
The UK Climate Change Act (November 2008) set legally binding targets for the UK to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050. A system of ‘carbon budgets’ which limit UK emissions over successive five-year periods, will set the trajectory towards 2050. The first three carbon budgets were announced in April 2009, covering the periods 2008-12, 2013-17 and 201822. They require emissions reductions of just over 22 per cent, 28 per cent and 34 per cent respectively, below 1990 levels.
Source: AEA Energy and Environment / DECC
Provisional 2009 data show GHG emissions to be 574.6 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent, a decrease of 25.7% since 1990.
1
The ‘basket’ of six GHGs consists of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, sulphur hexafluoride, perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons.
Page 2 of 20
GHG emissions from transport (NAEI)
By 2008, GHG emissions from international aviation had more than doubled (+118%) since 1990, while emissions from international shipping increased by 12%.
If international aviation and shipping were included in the UK total, emissions from both domestic and international aviation would make up 5.5% of the UK total GHG emissions (including memo items), and emissions from domestic and international shipping would be 1.9% of the total.
Figure 3: UK GHG emissions by sector, 2008 Other 14% Energy 33% Residential 13%
Figure 4: GHG emissions from UK domestic transport, by mode, 2008
International air/sea transport 6% Domestic Transport 20%
Railways, 1.8%
Business 14%
Other, 3.1%
Domestic shipping, 4.1% Domestic aviation, 1.7%
Total UK GHG emissions (inc. Memo items i.e. International transport) = 669.6 MT CO2 equivalent Other includes: Public, Agriculture, Industrial Process, Waste Management, Land Use Change Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Mopeds & motorcycles, 0.5% HGVs, 18.0%
As shown above, of the total UK emissions including memo items (669.6 MT CO2e), 26% are from domestic and international transport (173.9 MT CO2e). International aviation and shipping are excluded from the UK’s total emissions estimate, as there is no internationally agreed way of reporting them. Table 1 shows a detailed breakdown for domestic and international emissions. In 2008, domestic transport (road, rail, aviation and shipping) was the source of 21% (131.9 million tonnes) of all GHG domestic emissions in the UK EXCLUDING memo items (627.6 million tonnes), up from 16% (124.7 million tonnes out of 776.1 mt) in 1990.
Buses, 3.7%
Light duty vehicles, 12.0%
Total GHG emissions from domestic transport = 131.9 Mt CO 2 equivalent 'Other' includes: LPG emissions; Railways – stationary combustion; Road vehicle engines; Military Aircraft and Shipping and Aircraft support vehicles. Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Figure 5: GHG emissions from UK domestic and international transport by mode, 2008
Between 1990 and 2008, domestic transport GHG emissions, by source, increased by 6%. The majority of GHG emissions from transport are from road transport (see Table 1).
International shipping 4.3%
Passenger cars 41.8%
Domestic shipping 3.1% Domestic aviation 1.3%
By 2008, GHG emissions from railways (diesel trains only) had risen by 29% since 1990; representing 0.4% of the UK’s total domestic emissions by source.
By 2008, GHG emissions from domestic aviation had risen by 62% since 1990, but represented 0.4 % of the UK’s domestic emissions.
Other 2.3%
International aviation 19.8%
GHG emissions from road transport increased by 6% between 1990 and 2008. In 2008, road transport represented 18.9% of the UK’s total domestic emissions from all sources.
By 2008, GHG emissions from domestic shipping (vessel journeys between UK ports) had risen by 30% since 1990, and represented 0.9% of the UK’s total domestic emissions.
Passenger cars, 55.2%
Railways 1.4%
Mopeds & motorcycles 0.4%
HGVs 13.7%
Buses 2.8%
Light duty vehicles 9.1%
Total GHG emissions from transport (inc. Memo items) = 173.9 Mt CO 2 equivalent Other' includes: LPG emissions; Road vehicle engines; Aircraft support vehicles; Railways - stationary combustion; Military Aircraft and shipping. Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Page 3 of 20
EU-15 domestic transport CO 2 emissions
Background to data sources
Figure 6: EU-15 domestic transport CO 2 emissions, 2007
Million tonnes of CO2 All domestic transport
All 1 Sources
% of All Sources
% of EU15 transport total
Germany
151.9
841.2
18.1%
17.8%
France
136.0
397.1
34.3%
16.0%
UK
131.8
546.4
24.1%
15.5%
Italy
127.2
475.3
26.8%
14.9%
Spain
109.1
366.4
29.8%
12.8%
Netherlands
35.2
172.7
20.4%
4.1%
Belgium
25.1
114.5
21.9%
2.9%
Austria
23.9
74.2
32.3%
2.8%
Greece
23.4
113.6
20.6%
2.7%
Sweden
20.6
51.6
40.0%
2.4%
Portugal Irish Republic
18.8
62.8
30.0%
2.2%
14.1
47.5
29.8%
1.7%
Finland
14.0
66.1
21.2%
1.6%
Denmark
14.0
53.2
26.3%
1.6%
Luxembourg EU-15 total
6.6
11.8
55.5%
0.8%
851.8
3394.4
25.1%
100.0%
1. Land Use Change category has been excluded from the ‘All Sources’ total as treatment of this category can differ between countries. Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
1. National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI):
13.6% 1.8% 22.9%
Source: emissions are split by the sector producing them. Fuel type: emissions are broken down from the consumption of each type of energy. End/final user: emissions are split by the sector responsible for them, but also include the redistribution of emissions from power stations and other fuel processing industries to the sector that actually uses them.
The NAEI data is reported on the National Communication (NC) basis. International aviation and shipping are excluded from the national total, but are reported as memo items.
The geographic coverage of reported GHG and CO 2 emissions estimates by DECC are slightly different. The UK GHG total is based on emissions in the UK, and those Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man), and Overseas Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar and Montserrat) that are party to the UK ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Reporting of CO 2 emissions for the UK only incorporates Crown Dependencies, but excludes Overseas Territories.
Emissions from the transport categories in the NAEI are calculated using a combination of the volume of fuel purchased in the UK, activity data and emissions factors.
See Table 1 for latest transport GHG emissions data from the NAEI.
The latest NAEI statistics can be found on DECC’s website at:
Figure 7: Global CO 2 emissions (from fuel combustion) in 2007
% of global total
The NAEI produces emissions statistics for greenhouse gases and other air pollutants on three different bases; by source, fuel type and end user.
Global CO 2 emissions
Million tonnes of CO 2 Country level emissions: Global 28,962 Europe (EU 27) 3,926 UK 523 Transport emissions: World transport 6,632
There are two main sources of UK emissions data; the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) produced by AEA Energy & Environment and published by DECC and the Environmental Accounts produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Source: CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009 Edition), IEA/OECD 2009
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/cl imate_change/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_f inal/2008_final.aspx
Page 4 of 20
2. Environmental Accounts:
The ONS Environmental Accounts reports greenhouse gas emissions produced by UK residents and UK-registered companies on a UK industry basis. It includes emissions produced during activity by UK flagged ships, aircraft and other vehicles wherever this takes place and wherever fuel is bought, and excludes emissions from activity by foreign ships, aircraft or other vehicles. Therefore, water and air transport includes international activity.
See Table 2 for latest transport GHG emissions data from the Environmental Accounts.
More information and the latest Environmental Accounts statistics can be found on the National Statistics website at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.a sp?vlnk=3698
Further information Chapter 3 of Transport Statistics Great Britain: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublicatio ns/energyenvironment/
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climat e_change/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_final/2008_ final.aspx
NAEI website: http://www.naei.org.uk/
National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC: http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventori es/national_inventories_submissions/items/4771.php
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (September 2009): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/reporting /conversion-factors.htm
Page 5 of 20
National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) data Table 1: Estimated GHG emissions by NC source category, 1990-2008 United Kingdom
Million tonnes of GHG
1990
1998
2007
2008
111.2 73.0 9.6
117.8 76.3 12.6
122.8 75.2 16.3
118.4 72.8 15.8
3.8 23.9 0.7
4.3 23.9 0.5
5.3 24.6 0.7
4.9 23.8 0.6
0.0 0.3 13.5
0.0 0.2 11.5
0.4 0.2 13.2
0.4 0.1 13.6
Road Transport Passenger cars Light duty vehicles Buses HGVs Mopeds & motorcycles LPG emissions (all vehicles) Other (road vehicle engines) Other transport Domestic aviation Railways Railways - stationary combustion Domestic shipping Other* Total Domestic transport
1.4 1.9 0.5 4.1 5.6
1.7 2.0 0.5 3.6 3.6
2.3 2.4 0.0 5.0 3.4
2.2 2.4 0.0 5.4 3.5
124.7
129.3
136.0
Total UK emissions
776.1
705.1
Memo Items International Aviation International Shipping International transport (aviation & shipping)
15.8 6.7 22.5
Total domestic and international transport
Total UK emissions (inc. memo items)
% of 2008 total (inc. memo items)
% of 2008 total
131.9
18.9% 11.6% 2.5% 0.8% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 21.0%
17.7% 10.9% 2.4% 0.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 19.7%
639.6
627.6
100.0%
93.7%
25.4 9.0 34.5
35.8 6.8 42.6
34.4 7.5 42.0
.. .. ..
5.1% 1.1% 6.3%
147.2
163.8
178.5
173.9
..
798.6
739.6
682.2
669.6
..
100.0%
* Includes Military Aircraft and Shipping and Aircraft Support Vehicles. Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Environmental Accounts data Table 2: Estimated GHG emissions by economic sector, 1990-2007 United Kingdom
Railways Buses and coaches Freight transport by road Water transport Air transport 1 Other transport sectors Total transport industries Household use of private vehicles Total UK emissions
1990 2.0 3.9 16.1 17.0 20.3 2.1
1998 2.1 3.9 18.4 19.5 31.4 2.8
2006 2.5 3.6 18.2 19.4 43.6 2.5
2007 2.5 3.7 18.9 17.7 43.5 2.6
% of 2007 total 0.4% 0.5% 2.7% 2.5% 6.2% 0.4%
61.4
78.1
89.7
88.9
12.6%
60.5
64.8
69.4
68.9
9.8%
809.5
760.1
719.1
707.1
100.0%
GHG emissions, in Million tonnes
1. Other transport sectors include: Tubes & trams; Taxis; Transport via pipeline. Source: Environmental Accounts
Page 6 of 20
Factsheet 2 ROAD TRANSPORT: Greenhouse Gas emissions Introduction
HGV’s:
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on road transport and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Overall UK GHG emissions are decreasing; however emissions from domestic transport have increased. In particular, emissions from road transport have increased by 6% since 1990.
HGV's currently contribute 3.8% of total UK GHG emissions in comparison to 3.1% in 1990. HGV GHG peaked at 24.7 million tonnes in 1997 but have now fallen back to 1990 levels. HGV's are the second highest contributor to road transport GHG emissions.
Light duty vehicles (vans):
Emissions from vans have increased by 64% since 1990 from 9.6 million tonnes to 15.8 million tonnes in 2008, the largest percentage increase by any road transport mode. Vans contributed 2.5% of total UK GHG emissions in 2008 in comparison to 1.2% in 1990.
Road transport summary (NAEI)
Historic UK road transport CO 2 emissions
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
Figure 1: Estimated CO 2 emissions from road transport, 1970-2008
Passenger cars:
HGVs
Vans
Buses
Motorcycles
80
In 1990 petrol cars were responsible for 96% of passenger car emissions. This decreased to 69% in 2008 due to the increasing ownership of diesel cars.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Page 7 of 20
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1982
1980
1978
1972
0 1970
Since 1990, GHG emissions from passenger cars have increased slightly over time but were back to 1990 levels in 2008. Emissions decreased by 3.3% between 2007 and 2008.
Million tonnes of CO2
Passenger cars 90
1998
Summary by mode (NAEI)
Mopeds & motorcycles produced 0.6 million tonnes of GHGs in 2008, down slightly from 0.7 million tonnes in 1990.
1996
The majority of road transport emissions are from passenger cars (72.8 million tonnes in 2008), HGVs (23.8 million tonnes) and light duty vehicles (vans) (15.8 million tonnes).
1976
Between 2007 and 2008, road transport GHG emissions decreased by 3.6%, falling from its highest level in 2007 of 122.8 million tonnes.
Mopeds & motorcycles:
1974
Since 1990, GHG emissions from buses & coaches have increased by 28%. Emissions from buses & coaches reached a peak of 5.4 million tonnes in 2005. In 2008, they made up 0.8% of the UK total emissions.
1994
Since 1990, GHG emissions from road transport have increased by 6.4% from 111.2 million tonnes. This compares to a 19.1% fall for total UK emissions and an increase of 5.8% for all domestic transport.
1992
Buses & coaches:
1990
In 2008, road transport produced 90% of all GHG emissions from domestic transport, up slightly from 89% in 1990.
1988
1986
In 2008, road transport was the source of 18.9% (118.4 million tonnes) of total UK GHG domestic emissions.
1984
Emission factors
Overview of road travel demand
Figure 2: Road traffic: Cars - vehicle kilometres, 1970-2008
To estimate total GHG emissions associated with an average journey, DEFRA emission factors can be used:
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
Source: National Road Traffic Survey, DfT
Source: Guidelines to DEFRA / DECC’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, 2009
1984
1970
1. The factors for cars are estimated values for the average petrol and diesel car in the UK car fleet. This has been divided by an average car occupancy rate of 1.6 passengers to derive average emissions per passenger kilometre.
1982
69.11g CO 2 e per passenger km
1980
Average bus/coach:
1978
198.35g CO 2 e per vehicle km (124.0g CO 2 e per passenger km)
1976
Average diesel car1:
1974
207.81g CO 2 e per vehicle km (129.9g CO 2 e per passenger km)
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1972
Average petrol car :
Billion vehicle-km
Cars & Taxis
1
Further road transport emission factors are available in Annex 6 of DEFRA’s report.
Figure 3: Road traffic: Other types of vehicles - vehicle kilometres, 1970-2008 Vans
HGV
Buses
Motorcycles
70
Emission factors for road freight (kg CO 2 per tonne-km) can be found in Annex 7 of DEFRA’s report.
60 Billion vehicle-km
Use weighted emissions factors:
30 20 10 2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
0 1974
The DEFRA emission factors do not take account of how much individual cars are driven within the UK fleet. The factors therefore differ from the results obtained by dividing total CO 2 emissions from all cars (total car fuel sales) by total car kilometres driven; that is, the emission factor for the average car kilometre driven in the UK. This is because lower CO 2 emitting cars, such as newer cars and diesel cars, are on average driven more than higher CO 2 emitting cars, such as older cars and sports cars. Thus, a use or traffic weighted average car emission factor will be significantly lower than these DEFRA factors and hence the DEFRA factors do not correlate to national emissions.
40
1970
50
1972
Source: National Road Traffic Survey
For comparison purposes with other modes, a use weighted factor may be more appropriate. A vehicle use weighted figure that reflects the average (petrol and diesel) car kilometre driven for the UK fleet is currently around 158.8g CO 2 per vehicle kilometre, or about 98.8g CO 2 per passenger kilometre. It is these use weighted factors that are used in the DfT’s National Transport Model (NTM). Furthermore, car fuel economy is expected to continue improving over time and so these factors will likewise continue to fall.
Page 8 of 20
The greatest growth in motor vehicle traffic was in the period of strong economic growth in the late 1980s. There was little growth during the recession of the early 1990s, before a period of stronger growth in the mid- to late 1990s.
Since 1998, the type of vehicle that has shown the greatest proportional increase in traffic is the van. Annual van traffic increased by 34% from 1998 to 2008.
Figure 5: Historic and forecast Road traffic and CO 2 emissions, England, 1995-2035
EU-15 road transport CO 2 emissions Figure 4: EU-15 road transport CO 2 emissions, 2007
180
Million tonnes of CO 2
Forecast Historic Data
of
road
traffic
and
120 100 CO2 80 60 40 20
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
0
Source: DfT National Transport Model
Traffic on English roads, as measured by total vehicle kilometres, is forecast to continue growing, though at a gradually slow rate. For the period as a whole (2003-2035) traffic growth of 43% is forecast. This works out at an average annual rate of about 1.1%.
The central CO 2 forecast suggests that emissions will fall a little then stabilise slightly below current levels. The reduction in emissions from 2010 onwards reflects more stringer targets on vehicle fuel efficiency and biofuels, including the EU New Car CO 2 Regulation, and the Renewable Energy Directive on biofuels. The levelling out of CO 2 emissions post 2025 is explained by the fact that no further improvements to vehicle efficiency or biofuels are assumed post 2020.
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
DfT forecasts emissions
Traffic
140
% of EU-15 total 18.1% 16.0% 15.3% 14.9% 12.3% 4.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 100.0%
Index (1995=100)
Germany France UK Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Greece Sweden Portugal Irish Republic Denmark Finland Luxembourg EU-15 total
Road transport 144.1 127.4 122.0 118.7 97.8 34.5 24.3 23.2 19.8 19.4 18.2 13.8 13.2 12.3 6.6 795.2
160
CO 2
Road transport forecasts are made using the Department’s National Transport Model (NTM), a strategic multi-modal model of land-based transport in Great Britain (although results are usually published at the England level only).
Further information
The NTM comprises six modes (car driver, car passenger, rail, bus, walk and cycle) and is capable of modelling the impacts of congestion and rail over-crowding on travellers’ choice of mode. Using the NTM, central forecasts of traffic, congestion and emissions are produced for England, based on a ‘baseline scenario’ that represents a continuation of existing policies up to 2035. Forecasts for two intervening years – 2015 and 2025 – have also been produced.
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_cha nge/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_final/2008_final.aspx
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (September 2009): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/reporting/conv ersion-factors.htm
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2008): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
DfT road traffic statistics: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/roa dstraffic/traffic/
DfT National Transport Model: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/
Page 9 of 20
Factsheet 3 RAILWAYS: Greenhouse Gas emissions
Introduction
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on railways and GHG emissions.
The railways sector in the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) refers to emissions from diesel trains only. Electricity used by railways is supplied from the public distribution system so these emissions are reported under the Energy Supply section in the NAEI, see NAEI methodology below for more detail.
Currently about 40% of the rail network is electrified (in terms of track miles). This accounts for about 60% of passenger kilometres. Freight traffic is almost entirely (95%) diesel. Of total CO 2 from rail, estimates show that approximately 43% is from electric trains and 57% is from diesel.
NAEI railway GHG emissions - Methodology
The railways sector in the NAEI refers to emissions from diesel trains only. The total is the sum of three train categories: freight, intercity and regional. Emission estimates are based on train kilometres travelled and gas oil consumption, using fuel-based emission factors. DfT is working with the rail industry and the Office of Rail Regulation to improve the accuracy of future emission estimates.
Overview of railway GHG emissions
In 2008, railways (diesel trains only) were the source of 0.4% (2.4 million tonnes) of total UK greenhouse gas emissions, up from 0.2% in 1990.
In 2008, railways produced 1.8% of all greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport, up from 1.5% in 1990.
Since 1990, GHG emissions from railways increased by 29.5% from 1.9 million tonnes. This compares to a reduction of 19.1% for total UK emissions and an increase of 5.8% for all domestic transport over the same period.
The fuel consumption is distributed according to: Train km data for the three categories; Assumed mix of locomotives for each category; and Fuel consumption factors for different types of locomotive.
Figure 1: Type of railway (diesel trains) GHG emissions, by source, UK, 1990-2008
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
TOTAL
Freight
Intercity
Regional
2.5 2.0 1.5
For further information on the methodology see section "A3.3.5.2 Railways" of the Annex to the report to the UNFCCC “UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2007: Annual Report for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change” at: http://www.naei.org.uk/reports.php
1.0
Historic UK railway emissions
0.5
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0.0
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Most of the electricity used by the railways for electric traction is supplied from the public distribution system, so the emissions arising from its generation are reported under the Energy Supply sector in the NAEI.
Since 1990, GHG emissions from diesel passenger trains in the UK (intercity and regional) have increased by 49%. Total passenger kilometres (diesel and electric trains) also increased by 49% over the same period (ORR National Rail Trends).
Page 10 of 20
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
Figure 2: Railway (diesel trains) CO 2 emissions, by source, UK, 1970-2008
Overview of railway demand Figure 4: Rail passenger km travelled (diesel & electric trains), GB, 1970-2009
2.5
Passenger Kilometres (Billions)
60
1.5
1.0
0.5
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Figure 3: Historic passenger railway CO 2 emissions (diesel & electric trains), GB, 1990 and 2005 1990
2005/06
2.81
2.70
85
61
2009
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970 25 20 15 10 5
2008-09
2006-07
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
0
Source: Office for Rail Regulation
Rail passenger kilometres have grown by 65% between 1970 and 2009, with significant growth since 1994.
Rail freight tonne kilometres increased by 24% between 1986-87 and 2009, though there has been a small decline over last two years.
Emission factor (per passenger km) To estimate total GHG emissions associated with an average train journey (diesel and electric train average), DEFRA emission factors can be used:
National rail:
10
Figure 5: Freight moved by rail, GB, 1986/87-2008/09
Source: ATOC and DfT analysis
20
1986-87
There are some gaps in obtaining robust data about rail’s historic CO 2 performance, not least because only the emissions from diesel trains are reported in the NAEI. However, using historic traction electricity consumption data for England and Scotland from Network Rail, estimates of emissions from passenger historic CO 2 movements produced by the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) and the DfT are shown in Figure 3. This suggests that absolute passenger rail emissions reduced between 1990 and 2005 despite a significant increase in passenger traffic.
Total CO 2 emissions (million tonnes) [Source=ATOC] CO 2 emissions per passenger (g/pkm)
30
Source: Office for Rail Regulation
Billion net tonne kilometres
40
0
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0.0
50
1988-89
Million tonnes of CO2
2.0
61.13g CO 2 e per pkm
Source: Guidelines to DEFRA / DECC’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, 2009. Data here relate to 2007/08
Page 11 of 20
Figure 7: CO 2 emissions under ‘Business as Planned’ maximum and minimum impact of measures, GB, 2008-2022
EU-15 railway CO 2 emissions Figure 6: EU-15 railway CO 2 emissions, 2007 Million tonnes of CO 2
UK Germany France Italy Spain Denmark Austria Belgium Irish Republic Greece Finland Netherlands Portugal Sweden Luxembourg EU-15 total
Million tonnes of CO 2
Railways (diesel trains only)
% of EU-15 total
2.22 1.28 0.57 0.33 0.29 0.23 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.07
38.2% 22.0% 9.8% 5.6% 5.0% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2%
-
-
5.82
100.0%
Impact of measures 2008 MAX MIN 2014 MAX MIN 2020 MAX MIN 2022 MAX MIN
DfT forecasts of railway CO 2 emissions
2.696 2.704 2.730 2.895 2.988 3.136 3.018 3.168
Freight
Total
0.644 0.644 0.569 0.600 0.607 0.640 0.618 0.651
3.340 3.349 3.298 3.495 3.594 3.776 3.636 3.819
diesel trains 1.271 1.273 1.280 1.355 1.404 1.472 1.422 1.491
Source: Carbon Pathways Analysis, DfT, 2008 (DfT and rail industry analysis; ATOC data)
The business as planned trajectory includes the CO 2 impact of a number of CO 2 saving measures such as driver training, more efficient new trains etc. Consequently, emissions are forecast to be lower than they would be if no action were to be undertaken. The projections for 2020 anticipate a near 50% reduction from 1990 levels in terms of CO 2 emissions per passenger kilometre.
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
Total
Passenger electric trains 1.425 1.432 1.450 1.540 1.584 1.665 1.596 1.678
Further information
The demand forecasting methodology used by DfT is an elasticity based model which takes trip information from ticket sales for a given base year. This base demand is combined with growth assumptions for a number of demand drivers and elasticities of response to changes in these drivers by market segment to generate future year rail demand. These key elasticities are estimated from econometric time series analysis of the relevant rail passenger flows and demand drivers. The forecasts of rail patronage are derived from the Network Modelling Framework (NMF). The model includes industry-agreed assumptions and parameters for rail demand forecasting. The forecast of rail emissions (including freight) has been based on a further model constructed to use the NMF timetable information, combined with data and assumptions of energy consumption for each class of rolling stock that is expected to be in operation in the forecast year.
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_c hange/gg_emissions/uk_emissions/2008_final/2008_final.as px
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (September 2009): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/reporting/co nversion-factors.htm
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2008): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
Office of Rail Regulation: http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/
Page 12 of 20
Factsheet 4 SHIPPING: Greenhouse gas emissions Introduction
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on shipping and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The UK estimates GHG emissions from both domestic and international shipping 1 .
The UK reports international emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as memo items based on bunker fuel sales. Emissions from bunker fuels do not form part of the UK's national inventory, i.e. those emissions for which the UK is responsible.
subsequently decreased by around 17% since 1998.
Emissions from international shipping are estimated from the amount of refuelling from bunkers at UK ports. However UK operators purchase most of their fuel outside of the UK.
UK international shipping in 2008 was the source of 1.1% (7.5 million tonnes) of all UK GHG emissions, a small increase from 0.8% in 1990.
In the context of other sectors, Figure 2 shows shipping emissions are a small proportion of total UK emissions. Aviation emissions are almost three times those from shipping. However, both are much less than road transport emissions.
Overview of UK shipping GHG emissions Figure 1: UK domestic and international shipping GHG emissions, 1990 and 2008 Million tonnes CO 2 e
Domestic International Total Shipping
1990 4.1 6.7
2008 5.4 7.5
10.9
12.9
Share of total UK CO 2 e emissions (inc memo items international) 1990 2008 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4%
Figure 2: Shipping’s share of total UK GHG emissions (including international), 2008 Shipping (domestic & international) 1.9%
Other 15.2%
Aviation (domestic & international) 5.5%
1.9% Road Transport 17.7%
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
In 2008, total UK shipping (domestic and international) was the source of 1.9% (12.9 million tonnes) of all UK GHG emissions (i.e. UK domestic total + memo items). Over the period 1990 to 2008, total UK shipping GHG emissions increased by 19%, from 10.9 to 12.9 million tonnes.
In 2008 UK domestic shipping was the source of 0.8% (5.4 million tonnes) of total UK GHG emissions (incl. memo items), up from 0.5% in 1990.
In 2008, emissions from international shipping were estimated to be 7.5 million tonnes. Between 1990 and 1998 emissions increased by around a third, although these emissions have
1
Residential 12.6%
Energy 32.8%
Business 14.3%
TOTAL UK GHG emissions (incl memo items) 669.6 mtCO2e ‘Other’ includes: Public; Agriculture; Industrial process; Waste; Land use change, other transport (excluding road, aviation and shipping) Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
In 2008, UK domestic and international shipping produced 7% of all UK GHG transport emissions, unchanged from 1990, but up from a low of 5% in 2002.
Historic UK shipping CO 2 emissions
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
Since 1970, total UK domestic and international shipping CO 2 emissions have reduced by 33% from 19.2 million tonnes to 12.8 million tonnes, but have increased by 19% since 1990 from 10.8 million tonnes.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) defines international shipping as “shipping between ports of different countries as opposed to domestic shipping”. Domestic shipping is defined as “shipping between ports of the same country as opposed to international shipping”. Page 13 of 20
Figure 3: UK domestic and international shipping CO 2 emissions, 1970- 2008 All shipping
International shipping
UK ports international traffic, measured in tonnes lifted, grew by 73% between 1970 and 2008.
Between 1970 and 2008, total demand for UK port services (UK international and UK domestic ports traffic) has grown by 52%, while CO 2 emissions from UK domestic and UK international shipping, based on bunker fuel sales, have shown an overall decline of 33%.
Domestic shipping
25 Million tonnes of CO 2
20 15 10 5
EU-15 shipping CO 2 emissions
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0
Figure 5: EU-15 shipping emissions, 2007
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Million tonnes of CO2
Since 1970, CO 2 emissions from UK domestic CO 2 shipping have risen 81% from 3.0 million tonnes to 5.4 million tonnes. In comparison to a reduction of 22% for total domestic UK emissions since 1970 and an increase of 83% for domestic transport. Much of the growth has occurred in the last few years.
CO 2 emissions from UK international shipping show a 54% fall between 1970 and 2008. This overall fall includes a 67% fall, from 16.2 million tonnes to 5.3 million tonnes, between 1973 and 1981. The ensuing period to 2008 shows emissions fluctuating around a long-run average of 6.2 million tonnes per annum.
This section presents trends in demand for UK domestic and international shipping services, as measured by tonnes lifted at UK ports, for the period 1970 to 2008 (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 UK ports domestic and international traffic, 19702008 International
Millions of tonnes lifted per annum
450
International shipping
Total
% of EU-15 total
Netherlands
0.61
51.38
52.0
27.5%
Belgium
0.47
30.43
30.9
16.4%
Spain
3.26
26.85
30.1
15.9%
Italy
4.97
7.76
12.7
6.7%
France
3.00
9.34
12.3
6.5%
Greece
2.11
10.01
12.1
6.4%
UK
4.93
6.91
11.8
6.3%
Germany
0.53
9.92
10.5
5.5%
Sweden
0.44
7.42
7.9
4.2%
Denmark
0.45
3.56
4.0
2.1%
Finland
0.58
1.49
2.1
1.1%
Portugal
0.21
1.76
2.0
1.0%
-
0.36
0.4
0.2%
0.07
..
0.1
0.0%
Irish Republic
Overview of UK demand for domestic and international shipping services
Domestic shipping
Austria Luxembourg EU-15 total
-
0.0
0.0%
167.19
188.8
100.0%
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
International shipping GHG allocation methodology issues
emissions
There is no internationally agreed method of allocating international shipping (and international aviation) GHG emissions to individual nation states.
At present a nation’s estimated marine bunker fuel sales to international maritime users are the basis of GHG emissions reported to the UNFCCC. International shipping (and aviation) emissions are reported as “memo items”. Memo items do not form part of national inventories for which the nation is responsible.
This section presents results using some of the alternative allocation methods.
Domestic
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
0
Source: DfT Maritime Statistics
21.64
UK ports domestic traffic, measured in tonnes lifted, grew by 11% between 1970 and 2008. Page 14 of 20
1. NAEI bunker fuel sales method Global shipping emissions
NAEI emissions estimates are calculated using UK refiners’ declared sales of fuel to maritime users, and are based upon only those refiners’ best estimates of the final use – domestic or international shipping – to which marine bunker fuel is put. Therefore, accurate disaggregation of UK marine bunker fuel sales between domestic and international shipping services is difficult. For example, because a vessel can operate domestically and then internationally on the same tank of fuel, or because marine bunkers are sold through third parties.
Vessels, when possible, buy fuel where prices are lowest. Emissions measured on fuel sales are therefore sensitive to the relative price of fuel available in the UK relative to other bunker markets. Currently, the cost of heavy fuel oil available in the UK market is approximately 8 to 10% higher than that available in Rotterdam.
NAEI estimates total GHG emissions from UK domestic and international shipping were 12.9 million tonnes in 2008.
Figure 6: Shipping CO 2 emissions (2007)1 Sector International shipping2 Total shipping
The ONS Environmental Accounts reports emissions produced by UK residents and UKregistered companies on a UK industry basis. It includes emissions produced during activity by UK-owned shipping wherever this takes place, wherever fuel is bought, and whatever nations’ cargoes may be carried. ONS estimate total GHG emissions from UKowned shipping for 2007 to be 17.7 million tonnes (50% higher than the 2007 NAEI bunker fuel sales estimate at 11.8 mtCO 2 e).
3. Vessel activity method
Individual vessel movement data can be used to build up an estimate of shipping's fuel use and emissions.
A vessel activity-based methodology employed by Entec (2005) estimated emissions based on movements within waters up to 200 miles around the European Union allocated to country by departure/destination. This method estimated total UK shipping CO 2 emissions were up to 146% higher than the same study's UK estimate based on bunker fuel sales.
Consensus Estimate MtCO 2 1 870 1050
Source: IMO (2009) 1 2
All non-military ships greater than 100 GT. Excludes domestic shipping and fishing.
International Maritime Organisation (IMO) (2009) (Figure 6) used an activity-based method to construct an estimate of the total global CO 2 emissions from shipping. This method led to a consensus estimate of approximately 1050 million tonnes of CO 2 emitted in 2007 (approximately 2.7% of total global CO 2 emissions in 2007). The uncertainty range is around +/- 20% from the central estimates presented.
IMO (2009) concluded that declared marine fuel sales data do not provide a complete picture of energy consumption by ships engaged in domestic and international trade.
For international shipping, the IMO (2009) activitybased method leads to an estimate that is approximately 43% greater than International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates of the CO 2 emissions from the combustion of international maritime bunker fuel in IEA (2009) (approximately 610 million tonnes of CO 2 in 2007).
International marine fuel statistics, collected since the 1973 inception of the IEA, were not originally intended to measure the total energy used by ships engaged in global commerce.
CO 2 emissions from global shipping are on a strongly rising trend as long-term world trade growth significantly outstrips global GDP growth. Scenarios in IMO (2009) suggest that the total global CO 2 emissions from international shipping could grow to between approximately 1.9 and 2.7 billion tonnes of CO 2 in 2050.
2. Ownership method
Estimation method Activity based Activity based
Page 15 of 20
Further information
DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/a lltables.htm
Guidelines to DEFRA greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (June 2008): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/envrp/conve rsion-factors.htm
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2008): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
IMO (2009) 2nd IMO GHG Study 2009: http://www.imo.org/includes/blastData.asp/doc_id=12612/G HG%20StudyFINAL.pdf
IEA (2009) CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009 Edition): Highlights: http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/
2005 European Commission study http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/task2_so2.pdf
DfT Maritime Statistics: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/ maritime/
Page 16 of 20
Factsheet 5 AVIATION: Greenhouse Gas emissions
This factsheet details the latest statistics and information on aviation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Figure 2: Aviation’s share of total UK GHG emissions (including international), 2008 Shipping (domestic & international) 1.9%
Domestic aviation refers to flights between UK airports. International aviation refers to flights departing UK airports for an overseas destination. All emissions reported here are from departing flights in line with the data reported for the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI). The UK reports international emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as memo items based on bunker fuel sales. Emissions from bunker fuels do not form part of the UK's national inventory, i.e. those emissions for which the UK is responsible.
Other 15.2%
Residential 12.6%
Aviation (domestic & international) 5.5%
Road Transport 17.7% Energy 32.8%
Business 14.3%
TOTAL UK GHG emissions (incl memo items) 669.6 mtCO2e ‘Other’ includes: Public; Agriculture; Industrial process; Waste; Land use change, other transport (excluding road, aviation and shipping).
Overview of UK aviation GHG emissions
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Figure 1: UK domestic and international aviation GHG emissions, 1990 and 2008
Historic UK aviation CO 2 emissions
2.1%
5.5%
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
In 2008, domestic and international aviation accounted for 5.5% of total UK GHG emissions (i.e. UK domestic total + memo items). This has increased from 2.1% in 1990.
Domestic
GHG emissions from aviation have grown at an annual average rate of 3.0% over the last ten years (ranging from -3.8% to 10.1%). Domestic aviation emissions account for only a very small proportion – less than half a percentage point – of total UK GHG emissions. In the context of other sectors, Figure 2 shows aviation’s emissions are much less than the energy industry, road transport, manufacturing and residential emissions.
aviation
CO 2
International
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970
Figure 3: Domestic and international emissions, 1970-2008
1996 1998 2000
36.6
This strong growth is from a very low base; aviation accounted for only 1% of total UK emissions in 1970, rising to just over 6% in 2008.
1990 1992 1994
17.1
1984 1986 1988
2008 2.2 34.4
Aviation’s share of UK emissions has grown since 1970 with some periods of slow growth reflecting factors such as slower economic growth or external demand disturbances.
1978 1980 1982
1990 1.4 15.8
1972 1974 1976
Domestic International Total Aviation
Share of total UK CO 2 emissions (inc memo items international) 1990 2008 0.2% 0.3% 2.0% 5.1%
Emission estimates back to 1970 are only available for CO 2 .
M illio n to n n e s o f c a rb o n d io x id e
Million tonnes CO 2 e
2008
2002 2004 2006
Introduction
Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Page 17 of 20
The share of total UK aviation CO 2 emissions accounted for by domestic flights is very small at 6%. This is lower than during the 1980s when the figure was around 8%.
Domestic aviation increased from 0.7 million tonnes in 1970, peaking at 2.5 million tonnes in
2005. Since then domestic aviation emissions have decreased to 2.2 million.
NAEI aviation CO 2 emissions - methodology
The NAEI estimates aviation CO 2 emissions based on bunker fuel use published by DECC in To produce the split between DUKES 2 . domestic and international the number of aircraft movements broken down by aircraft type at each UK airport are obtained from CAA and used. This methodology complies with the IPCC Tier 3 specification. Estimates are made for emissions from the Landing and Take Off (LTO) phase and the Cruise phase for both domestic and international aviation. For the LTO phase, fuel consumed and emissions per LTO cycle are based on detailed airport studies and engine-specific emission factors (from ICAO database). For the cruise phase, fuel use and emissions are estimated using distances (based on great circles) travelled from each airport for a set of representative aircraft.
Emission factors (per passenger km)
172.8g CO 2 e per pkm 99.2g CO 2 e per pkm 113.3g CO 2 e per pkm
Source: Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, 2009
When multiplying by distance, a 9% uplift factor should be added to take into account non-direct routes (i.e. not along the straight line great circle distances between destinations) and delays/circling.
Actual emissions per passenger will vary significantly according to the type of aircraft in use, the load, cabin class, flight route, etc.
Emission factors for air freight (kg CO2 per tonne-km) can be found in Annex 7 of DEFRA’s report.
Non-CO 2 effects
CO 2 emissions from UK airports
Understanding of the impacts of CO 2 emissions on the climate is relatively good. However, aviation has effects on climate beyond that resulting from its CO 2 emissions and for these other emissions there are significant uncertainties (although the impacts of NOx emissions are relatively better understood than other non-CO 2 emissions).
Recent research (Lee et al 2009) describes aviation’s total climate change impacts using the standardised unit Global Warming Potential. This research concludes that aviation’s total climate change impact is equivalent to between 1.3-2.0 times greater than its CO 2 emissions alone.
Figure 4: CO 2 emissions from UK airports, 2005 Million tonnes of CO 2 17.1 4.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 23.5
Share of UK departure CO 2 46% 12% 4% 2% 0% 63%
7.8
21%
0.7 5.5 37.5
2% 15% 100%
Source: UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, 2009
To estimate total GHG emissions associated with an average flight per passenger kilometre, DEFRA emission factors can be used:
Domestic Short haul Long haul
For further information on the methodology see section "A3.3.5.1 Aviation" of the Annex to the report to the UNFCCC “UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2008: Annual Report for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change” at: http://www.naei.org.uk/reports.php
Heathrow Gatwick Stansted Luton London City London Total Other UK airports Freight Residual Total
Figure 4 shows that in 2005 London airports accounted for a little under two thirds of total UK aviation CO 2 emissions. Heathrow currently accounts for nearly half of the UK's aviation CO 2 emissions. This reflects its large share of traffic and its larger proportion of long haul flights, which combine to give it a large share of seat kilometres.
It should be noted that the emissions at the airport level represent emissions from passenger flights only and do not include additional emissions from congestion during taxing, or the individual airport contribution to the freight total. The national total has been increased by around +5 mtCO 2 to ensure consistency with NAEI 2005 outturn estimates.
2
Fuel consumption data was published by Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in their annual publication ‘Digest of UK Energy Statistics’ (DUKES). Page 18 of 20
Overview of UK air travel demand
EU-15 aviation CO 2 emissions
Figure 5: Activity at UK airports: ATMs and Terminal passengers, 1970-2008
Figure 7: EU-15 aviation emissions, 2007 Million tonnes of CO 2
ATM (aircraft landings or take-offs) (Left axis) Terminal Passengers (Right axis) 2.5
200
1.5
150
1.0
100
0.5
50
Passengers per annum (Millions)
2.0 ATMs (Millions)
Domestic aviation
International aviation
Total
% of EU-15 total
UK
2.1
35.0
37.1
24.2%
Germany
2.3
25.3
27.6
18.0%
France
4.6
17.1
21.7
14.1%
Spain
7.6
10.4
18.0
11.7%
Italy
2.4
10.4
12.9
8.4%
-
11.1
11.1
7.2%
1.3
2.9
4.3
2.8%
250
Netherlands Greece Belgium
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
0 1970
0.0
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain / CAA Airport Statistics
-
3.8
3.8
2.5%
Irish Republic
0.1
3.0
3.1
2.0%
Portugal
0.4
2.5
2.9
1.9%
Air traffic movements (ATMs) and passengers have grown significantly since 1970.
Denmark
0.1
2.7
2.8
1.8%
Sweden
0.6
2.2
2.8
1.8%
Average annual growth in ATMs over 1998-2008 was 3% (ranging from -2% to +6%).
Austria
0.1
2.2
2.2
1.5%
Finland
0.3
1.7
2.0
1.3%
Average annual growth in airport passengers over 1998-2008 was 4.5% (ranging from -1.9% to +8.3%); greater than the annual average growth in emissions or ATMs. The faster growth in passengers than in ATMs meant that the number of passengers per ATM increased.
Luxembourg
-
1.3
1.3
0.9%
22.0
131.6
153.6
100.0%
Over the same period (1998-2008) average annual UK economic growth (GDP) was 2.6%.
Load factors of UK airlines have increased slightly from 77.5% in 1998 to 79.7% in 2008 on international flights; and on domestic flights, 62.1% in 1998 and 64.2% in 2008. Overall, average load factors have increased from 76.9% to 79.1% over the period.
EU-15 total
Source: National Inventory Submissions to UNFCCC in 2009 (2007 data)
The UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands have high levels of CO 2 emissions from international aviation due to them having large hub airports with high volumes of international flights.
DfT forecasts of aviation passengers and CO 2 emissions
Overview of UK air freight Figure 6: Activity at UK airports: freight, 1970-2008 Freight (loaded and unloaded)
In January 2009, DfT published its forecasts of UK air passenger demand and CO 2 emissions. This covered the period 2005 to 2030 in detail with projections out to 2050. These figures are uncertain and make a range of assumptions on future trends.
2,500
Air Passenger Demand Forecasts: Tonnes (Thousands)
2,000
Figure 8: DfT forecasts of air passengers through UK airport terminals, 2005-2030
1,500
1,000
500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain / CAA Airport Statistics
Average annual growth in air freight tonnes from UK airports over 1998-2008 was 1.6% (ranging from -7.3% to +7.4%).
Million passengers per annum (mppa) 228 250 290 330 360 380
Note: Figures in forecast years rounded to 5mppa Source: ‘PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecast’ sensitivity test reported in UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, 2009
Page 19 of 20
Forecasts of passenger demand are produced assuming that each airport develops as necessary to fully utilise its current runway capacity. No further expansion of runway capacity is assumed.
Further information DECC Emissions data (NAEI): http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/allt ables.htm
Passengers are assumed to face their external costs of carbon emissions, valued in line with DEFRA guidance on the shadow price of carbon.
Guidelines to DEFRA’s greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting (June 2008):
Oil price assumptions are from DECC; GDP assumptions (economic growth) are from HM Treasury.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/envrp/conversi on-factors.htm
Forecasts are periodically updated to reflect the latest available evidence.
Carbon Pathways Analysis (July 2009): http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/sustainable/analysis.pdf
UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts (January 2009):
Aviation CO 2 forecasts:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/atf/co2forecasts09/
Figure 9: DfT forecasts of UK aviation CO 2 emissions, 20052050
Civil Aviation Authority - Statistics: Civil Aviation Authority - Environmental: http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=697&pagetype=90
Million tonnes of CO 2
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80
37.5 40 47 51 53 52
Note: Figures in forecast years rounded to nearest MtCO 2 Source: ‘PBR Nov 2008 GDP forecast’ sensitivity test reported in UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, 2009
The forecasts of UK aviation CO 2 forecasts are produced using the same assumptions as for passenger demand forecasts (see above).
The forecasts assume improvements to air traffic management and to new aircraft fuel efficiency in line with the EU manufacturers’ target. The forecasts do not assume, however, any major new technological developments, nor the adoption of sustainable alternative fuels. The industry has suggested these have the potential to offer significant reductions.
In 2012, aviation will join the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This means that the total annual CO 2 emissions from regulation flights arriving at and departing from airports in the EU will be capped at 97% of average 200406 levels in 2010, with the cap tightening to 95% of average 2004-06 levels from 2013 onwards. Emissions above the level of this cap will need to be offset by aircraft operators purchasing EU emissions allowances from other sectors of the EU ETS or project credits from the wider carbon market. This means that emissions can only increase above the level of the cap if aircraft operators pay for emissions reductions in other sectors.
Page 20 of 20
