Update on the Electric Market in Texas

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Update on the Electric Market in Texas

Legislative advertising paid for by: John W. Fainter, Jr. • President and CEO Association of Electric Companies of Texas, Inc. 1005 Congress, Suite 600 • Austin, TX 78701 • phone 512-474-6725 • fax 512-474-9670 • www.aect.net

AECT Member Companies Within ERCOT

Retail Electric Providers

Transmission and Distribution Utilities

Generation Companies

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AECT Companies Outside of ERCOT

SERC Reliability Corporation

Southwest Power Pool (SPP)

Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC)

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Prices in the Competitive Electric Market in ERCOT

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Natural Gas: Key Component of Electricity Prices In ERCOT •

Retail prices are driven by wholesale power prices – no matter how an electric market is structured.



The ERCOT region is more dependent on natural gas-fired generation than any other electric power region in the nation.



Thus, changes in natural gas prices result in changes in wholesale power prices, which result in changes in retail power prices.



With several dozen retail electric providers (REPs) competing for business, the competitive retail electric market in ERCOT helps place downward pressure on retail prices.

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Natural Gas Prices Have Been Volatile Since 2000



Through 1999, natural gas prices were relatively stable, but the cost of this key commodity has fluctuated greatly since 2000, with three exceptionally large peaks during the past decade.’



While prices have fallen over the past 18 months, natural gas prices today are still double the price of gas in 1999.



Despite this volatility, consumers have offers available in the market lower than before competition began.

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ERCOT Generation Mix More GasHeavy than U.S. Average

ERCOT

U.S. Average

Energy (MW)

Other Other

6% Nuclear

10%

12% Nuclear

Coal

Natural Gas

21% 20%

35% 47%

48% Natural Gas

Coal

“ERCOT has the highest dependency on natural gas of any other region” - ERCOT Note: Oil-fired generation is negligible in ERCOT, accounting for less than 0.1% of ERCOT capacity and load; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Sources: PUC(2010 summer data, no wind adjustment), EIA (2008 data, latest available)

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Regions Outside ERCOT Part of Larger, Multi-State Grids

(ERCOT)

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ERCOT far More Dependent On Gas Than Neighboring Power Regions

% MWh from Natural Gas % MWh from Coal

% MWh from Nuclear % MWh from Hydro % MWh from Other

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Review: Timeline of the Transition to Competition



ERCOT market restructuring legislation, Senate Bill 7, passed in 1999 • • •



Initiated competition in ERCOT retail markets beginning January 2002. Included environmental and energy efficiency provisions. Utilities required to fund energy efficiency programs equal to at least 10% of each year’s annual growth in demand.

1999 - 2001 – Preparation for retail competition. • • •

ERCOT develops systems required to support competition. PUC promulgates competition rules. PUC determines rate unbundling cases.



July 2001 – Retail competition pilot project begins.



January 2002 – Market opens in ERCOT, providing a clear point of comparison: regulated rates in 2001 and competitive price offers in 2002.

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Natural gas prices have been volatile, still substantially higher than before the market opened Natural Gas Prices 1992 – 2010 YTD; $/MMBtu

Before Electric Competition

With Electric Competition

‟09-10 Natural Gas Avg: $5.15/MMBtu (+144%)

NYMEX Natural Gas, 12-month Strip Annual Average ($/MMBtu) „02-08 Natural Gas Avg: $7.14/MMBtu (+238%) „00-01 Natural Gas Avg: $4.02/MMBtu (+90%) „92-99 Natural Gas Avg: $2.11/MMBtu

Source: LLC, “Energy Efficiency Accomplishments of Texas Investor Owned Utilities, Calendar Year 2009” Source: NYMEX (latestFrontier data asAssociates of 10/11/10)

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Competitive electricity prices still track natural gas, but enable customer choice and lower prices Natural Gas vs. Texas Residential Retail Electricity Prices In Areas Now Open to Competition 1992 – 2010 YTD; $/MMBtu and ¢/kWh Before Electric Competition NYMEX Natural Gas, 12-month Strip Annual Average ($/MMBtu)

NYMEX Average 12-Month Strip Average Lowest Offer

With Electric Competition „02-08 Natural Gas Avg: $7.14/MMBtu (+238%)

Average Competitive Offer

Residential Electricity Price Annual Average (¢/kWh)1 ¢

¢

„92-99 Natural Gas Avg: $2.11/MMBtu

¢

¢

¢

¢

1

Average annual residential electric prices at 1000 kWh/month in the 5 TDU areas opened to competition in 2002; pre-competition prices based on filed tariffs; postcompetition prices based on Power to Choose offerings and PUC data. Sources: NYMEX, PUC, Power to Choose website (latest data as of 10/11/10)

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Price offers falling in recent years

Offers and Prices – October 2007 – October 2010 Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

OCT-10

# of 1-Year Fixed-Price Price Products

33

32

39

69

Average 1-Year FixedPrice Offer

12.7¢/kWh

14.9¢/kWh

11.7¢/kWh

10.0¢/kWh

Lowest 1-Year FixedPrice Offer

11.0¢/kWh

12.8¢/kWh

10.4¢/kWh

8.8¢/kWh

Lowest Offer Available in the Market

10.0¢/kWh

11.5¢/kWh

9.1¢/kWh

7.5¢/kWh

Source: Offer prices averaged from the 5 TDU areas open to competition from www.powertochoose.org (10/22/10) for a residential customer using an average of 1,000 kWh per month

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Recent news and updates on the competitive electric market

Shop Now for Cheaper Electric Rates By Jack Z. Smith, October 7, 2010 "There are one-year fixed rates available that are below what most North Texans were paying just before the majority of the state's electricity market was deregulated nearly nine years ago, on Jan. 1, 2002.” • "Nineteen one-year, fixed-rate plans below 9 cents per kwh, including two at 8.4 cents, six at 8.5 cents, three at 8.6 cents, four at 8.8 cents and four at 8.9 cents.” • "Six two-year fixed-rate plans at 9 cents per kwh.”

• "Fourteen all-renewable energy, one-year fixed-rate plans below 10 cents, ranging from 8.8 cents to 9.8 cents per kwh." Sources: EIA, www.powertochoose.org,

Recent Stats As of July 2010 (latest available), statewide residential electric prices in Texas are below the national average. Competition is fierce. For example, there are 51 different 1-year fixed-price offers in North Texas (Oncor) below 10 cents. Competition is helping to push prices down: the average 1-yr fixed price offer in competitive areas of Texas has fallen 33% in the past two years. 14

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0 LOWEST LEWISVILLE PRICE WA LOWEST DALLAS/FT WORTH PRICE LOWEST ABILENE PRICE ID KY LOWEST HOUSTON PRICE WV AR LA LOWEST CORPUS CHRISTI PRICE LOWEST DALLAS/FT WORTH - 1 YR… OR IN LOWEST ABILENE - 1 YR FIXED LOWEST LEWISVILLE - 1 YR FIXED WY ND UT TN OK MT SD LOWEST CORPUS CHRISTI - 1 YR FIXED LOWEST HOUSTON - 1 YR FIXED MS NE NC SC MO KS VA AL GA MN IA NM FL OH CO AZ TX IL US AVERAGE NV WI MI PA DE DC MA MD RI VT ME CA NH AK NJ CT NY HI

¢/kWh

Every Competitive Area in ERCOT Has Variable and 1-Year Lock Offers Available that are Lower than the National Average Price

Residential Retail Electric Prices All Data as of July 2010

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18

16

14

U.S. Average

10

8

6

4

2

Sources: Energy Information Administration, www.powertochoose.org 15

Retail electric price offers have fallen while energy commodity prices have risen

Percent change in price December 2001 – October 2010

Sources: Public Utility Commission of Texas; www.powertochoose.org (1,000 kWh monthly usage); EIA (Cushing, OK Oil Future Contract 1 Prices; US All Grades Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices); NYMEX (natural gas 12-month strip); all data as of 10/11/10

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18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

2001 State Ranking (Pre-Competition)

KY WA ID WV OR TN ND NE UT WY MT IN MO AL OK MS SD CO MN KS MD SC AR GA DC VA WI LA NC MI AZ OH IA FL DE IL NM TX NV PA NJ CT CA AK RI MA NH VT ME NY HI

¢/kWh

Texas competitive electric prices compare well to the rest of the nation

July 2010 30

¢/kWh

25 20 15

Average lowest offer in Texas competitive areas in Oct. „10– 7.5¢/kWh

(Latest Available)

State Price Rank Improved by 6 Spots with Competition

Average lowest offer in July „10 8.5¢/kWh

10 5

WA ID KY WV AR LA OR IN WY ND UT TN OK MT SD MS NE NC SC MO KS VA AL GA MN IA NM FL OH CO AZ TX IL NV WI MI PA DE DC MA MD RI VT ME CA NH AK NJ CT NY HI

0 Sources: EIA average annual residential rates for 2001 and July 2010 monthly data (latest available information). Average of lowest available prices in the 5 TDU areas open to competition from www.powertochoose.org (10/22/10) for a residential customer using an average of 1,000 kWh per month

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Texas competitive offers compare favorably with prices in neighboring states

Then: December 2001

Now: July 2010

Residential Electricity Prices (¢/kWh)

(latest available consistent data)

Texas OK Competitive

LA

NM

AR

Texas OK Competitive

LA

NM

AR

Average Lowest Offer

Sources: EIA; PUCT; www.powertochoose.org

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Other Issues

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Electric Consumption Continues to Grow in ERCOT

Note: The peak in electric consumption in 2000 was due to an exceptionally hot summer.

Source: ERCOT, “Report on Existing and Potential Electric System Constraints and Needs,” December 2009

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Generation investment in ERCOT



The competitive market has steadily added new generation and greater efficiency to the wholesale market.



Generators in the competitive market shoulder the risk of building new power plants, bringing efficient, costeffective generation to consumers. 21

Texas Has the Most Installed Wind Energy Capacity

27% of the nation‟s installed wind generation capacity is located in Texas. Source: American Wind Energy Association, 7/20/10 (www.awea.org/projects)

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Map of Adopted Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZs)

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Status of CREZ Certificates of Convenience and Necessity (CCNs)

Approved CCNs LCRA Tippet to North McCamey Oncor Bluff Creek to Brown Scurry County South to Tonkawa Dermott to Scurry County South Central Bluff to Bluff Creek Newton to Killeen Sweetwater to Central Bluff Tonkawa to Sweetwater Riley-Bowman Brown to Newton/Salado Jacksboro-Willow Creek-Parker Bowman to Jacksboro Tonkawa Station Expansion Jacksboro Station Expansion Bowman Switch Upgrade Carrollton NW Terminal

Filed CCNs Cross Texas Silverton to Tesla Gray to Tesla Silverton to Tesla Compensation Gray Reactive Compensation Gray Substation Oncor Clear Crossing to Willow Creek Riley to West Krum West Krum to Anna Willow Creek to Hicks Scurry County South Compensation Dermott Compensation Scurry County South Station Dermott Station Dermott to Willow Creek Brown Station Brown Compensation Newton Station Hicks Station West Krum Sweetwater East Switch Killeen Station Upgrade Willow Creek Station Parker Switch Upgrade

Source: PUC, “CREZ Progress Report No. 1,” October 2010

ETT East Abilene to Putnam Oklaunion Cap Bank Clear Crossing to Dermott Tesla to Riley Riley to Edith Clarke Edith Clarke to Cottonwood LCRA Kendall to Gillespie Big Hill to Kendall Lone Star Scurry County South to West Shackelford West Shackelford to Navarro/Sam Switch Sam Switch to Navarro West Shackelford Compensation Navarro Station Sam Switch Station West Shackelford Substation Additional Reactive Equipment

Sharyland Hereford to White Deer Silverton to Cottonwood Hereford Compensation Silverton Compensation 24

Advanced Metering Activities in Texas



The approved deployment plan for CenterPoint Energy calls for installation of advanced meters over five years beginning in March 2009. In 2009, CenterPoint Energy received a Federal Smart Grid Investment Grant that enables the deployment to be completed by late 2012. Through year-end 2009, CenterPoint Energy installed 152,275 advanced meters, and another 700,000 meters have been installed through September 2010.



Oncor’s approved deployment plan initiated in late 2008 will have installation of advanced meters completed by the end of 2012. To date, Oncor has installed over 1.4 million meters.



The AEP Texas deployment plan was approved in December 2009 and installation of advanced meters will be completed by the end of 2013. To date, nearly 5,000 meters have been installed in Portland, Texas, in order to conduct a system acceptance test.

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Web:

AECT.net

Blog:

AECTnet.wordpress.com

Twitter: twitter.com/AECTnet Facebook: Association of Electric Companies of Texas, Inc. Email:

[email protected] 26