USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected] November 10, 2015
November-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Nov Nov Oct USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.4 Harvested 87.5 83.1 80.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 168.0
Nov USDA 15/16 88.4 80.7 169.3
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 32 15479
1731 13555 30 15316
1731 13654 30 15415
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5040 1920 5124 1370 13454
5315 1864 5209 1360 13748
5275 1850 5250 1380 13755
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1731 0.126
1561 0.113
Price range
$4.46
$3.70 $3.45 $4.05 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Nov Nov Oct USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.3 83.2 Harvested 76.3 82.6 82.4 Yield 44.0 47.5 47.2
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Nov Nov Oct Nov USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
132.90 991.43
174.88 1008.79
196.03 972.60
208.21 974.87
1124.33
1183.67
1168.63
1183.08
5300 1800 5175 1380 13655
570.34
582.78
602.49
596.17
949.46
975.46
980.79
971.16
1760 0.129
174.88 0.184
208.21 0.213
187.83 0.192
211.91 0.218
$3.35 $3.95 Nov USDA 15/16 83.2 82.4 48.3
ARG Prod: 15/16 BRZ Prod: 15/16
25.6; +1.6 81.5; +1.5
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Nov Nov Oct Nov USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3927 33 4052
191 3888 30 4109
191 3981 30 4203
56.19 283.15
62.68 318.68
77.97 320.49
77.58 321.02
339.34
381.36
398.46
398.60
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1638 97 10 3478
1873 1843 97 48 3861
1880 1675 92 38 3685
1890 1715 92 41 3738
241.28
261.50
272.39
273.36
275.73
299.24
310.47
312.33
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
191 0.049
425 0.115
465 0.124
62.68 0.227
77.58 0.259
85.14 0.274
82.86 0.265
Price range
$13.00
$10.10
$8.40 $9.90
$8.15 $9.65
Brazil Prod: 15/16 Argentina Prod: 15/16
100.0; unch 57.0; unch
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
November 10, 2015
November-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Nov Nov Oct USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 54.6 Harvested 45.3 46.4 47.1 Yield 47.1 43.7 43.6
Nov USDA 15/16 54.6 47.1 43.6
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 173 3026
590 2026 149 2766
753 2052 125 2930
753 2052 125 2930
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 228 2436
958 854 81 120 2013
967 850 72 180 2069
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.242
753 0.374
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Nov Nov Oct Nov USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.16 715.11
193.62 725.12
212.11 732.79
211.69 732.98
892.27
918.74
944.90
944.67
967 800 72 180 2019
698.65
707.05
716.41
717.37
861 0.416
911 0.451
193.62 0.277
211.69 0.299
228.49 0.319
227.30 0.317
$4.75 $5.25
$4.80 $5.20
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; -1.0 26.0; unch
Summary: yields, crops, carryouts (domestic and world) all exceed expectations Corn: acreage unchanged this month while 2015 yields rise 1.3 bushels per acre, leaving production 99 million bushels higher than October. Feed usage is increased by 25 mbu, while exports take an unsurprising 50 mbu cut; the surprise was a sharp 75 mbu cut in 2015/16 corn use for ethanol, despite a strong early pace? Overall stocks up nearly 200 mbu, way above trade estimates. World 2015/16 corn carryout up a massive 24 million tonnes that's all due to a huge cut in Chinese corn feed demand, down a combined 28 MMT over the last three crop years. FWIW, million and a half-tonne increases in production for the US. ARG, and BRZ this month. 2.0 MMT decline in Ukraine's crop for 2015/16.
Beans: acreage unchanged, 2015 yields up a sharp 1.1 bpa, thus production rises 93 million bushels. Crush rises 10 mbu again this month with export usage up another 40 mbu, but overall stocks gain another 40 mbu to 465 mbu, 30 mbu above trade estimates. World soybean output for 2015/16 rises by about half a million tonnes despite the 2.5 MMT+bump for the U.S.; ARG and BRZ unchanged this month.
Wheat: the only change in the U.S. balance table this month is a 50 mbu export decrease and the subsequent 50 mbu carryout increase, leaving ending stocks well above estimates at 911 mbu. Global production up slightly this month thanks to a rebound in E.U. harvests, with AUS back down a million tonnes after a 1 MMT rise in Oct (that figure likely has more room to drop). Increased wheat feed use contributes to a 1.2 MMT reduction in overall global wheat stocks this month.
Results: brutal report for the grains almost all the way around, including huge Chinese demand miss and revision - sets the stage for bearish trade all the way into the Jan reports.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
November-15 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand (mb) Nov Nov Oct USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 95.4 90.6 88.4 Harvested 87.5 83.1 80.7 Yield 158.1 171.0 168.0
Nov USDA 15/16 88.4 80.7 169.3
Carryin Production Imports Supply
821 13829 36 14686
1232 14216 32 15479
1731 13555 30 15316
1731 13654 30 15415
Feed Exports Ethanol Other Ind Demand
5040 1920 5124 1370 13454
5315 1864 5209 1360 13748
5275 1850 5250 1380 13755
Carryout CO/Use
1232 0.092
1731 0.126
1561 0.113
Price range
$4.46
$3.70 $3.45 $4.05 $0.00 U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand (mb) Nov Nov Oct USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 76.8 83.3 83.2 Harvested 76.3 82.6 82.4 Yield 44.0 47.5 47.2
World Corn Supply/Demand (mmt) Nov Nov Oct Nov USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
132.90 991.43
174.88 1008.79
196.03 972.60
208.21 974.87
1124.33
1183.67
1168.63
1183.08
5300 1800 5175 1380 13655
570.34
582.78
602.49
596.17
949.46
975.46
980.79
971.16
1760 0.129
174.88 0.184
208.21 0.213
187.83 0.192
211.91 0.218
$3.35 $3.95 Nov USDA 15/16 83.2 82.4 48.3
ARG Prod: 15/16 BRZ Prod: 15/16
25.6; +1.6 81.5; +1.5
World Soybean Supply/Demand (mmt) Nov Nov Oct Nov USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
Carryin Production Imports Supply
141 3358 72 3570
92 3927 33 4052
191 3888 30 4109
191 3981 30 4203
56.19 283.15
62.68 318.68
77.97 320.49
77.58 321.02
339.34
381.36
398.46
398.60
Crush Exports Seed Residual Demand
1734 1638 97 10 3478
1873 1843 97 48 3861
1880 1675 92 38 3685
1890 1715 92 41 3738
241.28
261.50
272.39
273.36
275.73
299.24
310.47
312.33
Carryout CO/Use
92 0.026
191 0.049
425 0.115
465 0.124
62.68 0.227
77.58 0.259
85.14 0.274
82.86 0.265
Price range
$13.00
$10.10
$8.40 $9.90
$8.15 $9.65
Brazil Prod: 15/16 Argentina Prod: 15/16
100.0; unch 57.0; unch
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
USDA Grain Supply/Demand Summary Matt Zeller • [email protected]
November 10, 2015
November-15 U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand (mb) Nov Nov Oct USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 Planted 56.2 56.8 54.6 Harvested 45.3 46.4 47.1 Yield 47.1 43.7 43.6
Nov USDA 15/16 54.6 47.1 43.6
Carryin Production Imports Supply
718 2135 173 3026
590 2026 149 2766
753 2052 125 2930
753 2052 125 2930
Food Exports Seed Feed/Res Demand
955 1176 77 228 2436
958 854 81 120 2013
967 850 72 180 2069
Carryout CO/Use
590 0.242
753 0.374
Price range
$6.87
$5.99
World Wheat Supply/Demand (mmt) Nov Nov Oct Nov USDA USDA USDA USDA 13/14 14/15 15/16 15/16
177.16 715.11
193.62 725.12
212.11 732.79
211.69 732.98
892.27
918.74
944.90
944.67
967 800 72 180 2019
698.65
707.05
716.41
717.37
861 0.416
911 0.451
193.62 0.277
211.69 0.299
228.49 0.319
227.30 0.317
$4.75 $5.25
$4.80 $5.20
AUS Prod: 15/16 CAN Prod: 15/16
26.0; -1.0 26.0; unch
Summary: yields, crops, carryouts (domestic and world) all exceed expectations Corn: acreage unchanged this month while 2015 yields rise 1.3 bushels per acre, leaving production 99 million bushels higher than October. Feed usage is increased by 25 mbu, while exports take an unsurprising 50 mbu cut; the surprise was a sharp 75 mbu cut in 2015/16 corn use for ethanol, despite a strong early pace? Overall stocks up nearly 200 mbu, way above trade estimates. World 2015/16 corn carryout up a massive 24 million tonnes that's all due to a huge cut in Chinese corn feed demand, down a combined 28 MMT over the last three crop years. FWIW, million and a half-tonne increases in production for the US. ARG, and BRZ this month. 2.0 MMT decline in Ukraine's crop for 2015/16.
Beans: acreage unchanged, 2015 yields up a sharp 1.1 bpa, thus production rises 93 million bushels. Crush rises 10 mbu again this month with export usage up another 40 mbu, but overall stocks gain another 40 mbu to 465 mbu, 30 mbu above trade estimates. World soybean output for 2015/16 rises by about half a million tonnes despite the 2.5 MMT+bump for the U.S.; ARG and BRZ unchanged this month.
Wheat: the only change in the U.S. balance table this month is a 50 mbu export decrease and the subsequent 50 mbu carryout increase, leaving ending stocks well above estimates at 911 mbu. Global production up slightly this month thanks to a rebound in E.U. harvests, with AUS back down a million tonnes after a 1 MMT rise in Oct (that figure likely has more room to drop). Increased wheat feed use contributes to a 1.2 MMT reduction in overall global wheat stocks this month.
Results: brutal report for the grains almost all the way around, including huge Chinese demand miss and revision - sets the stage for bearish trade all the way into the Jan reports.
FCStone Market Intelligence Grain SD Report.xls
2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 100 West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.intlfcstone.com 1-800-422-3087
