Utility Solar Roundtable Germany Final Slides
Utilities and Solar Roundtable: Lessons from Germany Chris Vlahoplus, Scott Madden Joe Hoagland, Tennessee Valley Authority Aaron Johnson, Pacific Gas & Electric Bob Gibson, SEPA
September 2014 Fact Finding Mission • Led by SEPA with partner Scott Madden • 30 U.S. utility and energy executives • Three days in Dusseldorf meeting with German utilities, government officials, associations, business • Objective: – Learn from the participants the hows and whys of Germany’s energy transition – Ask lots of questions – Analyze how Germany’s experience is relevant to the U.S.
Germany – What You Need To Know
• Liberalization – move to competitive markets • Shutdown of nuclear – highly political • High gas prices – in contrast to U.S. • Energiewende – national policy of energy transition that has evolved over 20 years • Germany is not an island – physical and political ties to the rest of Europe
Impact On Utility Sector Due to market liberalization, utilities divested of transmission systems, and operate distribution, retail, and generation arms as separate companies
RWE will go from > 50% of earnings from conventional power generation (2012) to a forecast of < 10% over the mid term; Distribution & supply will make up > 70% of their drastically reduced earnings in the future Sources: EPIA / RWE
5
Current Capacity and Generation Net Installed Capacity Rating as of July 16, 2014
YTD Electricity Production through July 2014 17%
52%
Source: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems
6
Germany Has A Plan!
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
7
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
8
Impact on Residential Rates Retail rates have doubled since 2001…
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
9
Electricity’s share of household spending has remained flat for 20+ years
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
10
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
11
Electricity Price To Decline Over Time
Source: Mainova AG
12
E.ON Announces Split, Shift To Customer Focus
What Does The New E.On Mean To The U.S.?
September 2014 Fact Finding Mission • Led by SEPA with partner Scott Madden • 30 U.S. utility and energy executives • Three days in Dusseldorf meeting with German utilities, government officials, associations, business • Objective: – Learn from the participants the hows and whys of Germany’s energy transition – Ask lots of questions – Analyze how Germany’s experience is relevant to the U.S.
Germany – What You Need To Know
• Liberalization – move to competitive markets • Shutdown of nuclear – highly political • High gas prices – in contrast to U.S. • Energiewende – national policy of energy transition that has evolved over 20 years • Germany is not an island – physical and political ties to the rest of Europe
Impact On Utility Sector Due to market liberalization, utilities divested of transmission systems, and operate distribution, retail, and generation arms as separate companies
RWE will go from > 50% of earnings from conventional power generation (2012) to a forecast of < 10% over the mid term; Distribution & supply will make up > 70% of their drastically reduced earnings in the future Sources: EPIA / RWE
5
Current Capacity and Generation Net Installed Capacity Rating as of July 16, 2014
YTD Electricity Production through July 2014 17%
52%
Source: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems
6
Germany Has A Plan!
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
7
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
8
Impact on Residential Rates Retail rates have doubled since 2001…
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
9
Electricity’s share of household spending has remained flat for 20+ years
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
10
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
11
Electricity Price To Decline Over Time
Source: Mainova AG
12
E.ON Announces Split, Shift To Customer Focus
What Does The New E.On Mean To The U.S.?
