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Planalytics VisionSM North America Weather’s Impact on Agriculture November 2017 to July 2018 August 7th, 2017
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for Agriculture Report
Planalytics Vision for Agriculture Report provides a statistical "back to normal" projection of temperature and precipitation for use in mid- to long-range planning and forecasting. Normal is defined as the average over the past 10 years for temperature, 30 years for precipitation. Published monthly, Vision uses last year's actual weather as the basis for formulating probable monthly temperature and precipitation values up to a year in the future. Our experience has shown that understanding the difference between last year's weather and average -- or normal -- weather trends provides the most likely scenario for projecting probable weather conditions going forward. Vision contains monthly back-to-normal profiles of temperature and precipitation for major North American agricultural regions covering months four through twelve. Supplementing the Planalytics Vision report are our Seasonal Outlooks covering months one through three, and our 14-day WeatherVue forecasts. For additional information or if you have questions on how best to use this information, please reach out to your account services manager.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Regional Map
BC AND WEST
MARITIMES PRAIRIES
ONTARIO AND CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND ST. LAWRENCE
PACIFIC WEST NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
SOUTH ATLANTIC
Definitions LY Actual Outlook vs. LY
Normal
Display of previous year’s actual temperature and precipitation departures. Display of the temperature and precipitation departures which are created through a deweatherized process. The deweatherized outlooks are the difference between last year’s actuals and the outlook for this year. Outlook values represent a statistical “trend to normal” forecast for the upcoming year. Normal temperatures are based on a 10-year rolling average, while normal precipitation is based on a 30-year average.
NOTE: The Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks provide strategic outlooks for the next 11-months. For outlooks specific to your business, inclusive of category outlooks by locations, please access the Insights website via www.planalytics.com or contact your Planalytics Client Services representative.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
U.S. Executive Overview for Agriculture Post Harvest Season (November-December): For November, against a very warm month last year, anticipate considerably colder readings, the coldest anomalies expected across northernmost growing areas. Combined with increased precipitation (to include more snow/ice episodes), expect post harvest fieldwork to experience delays for some. In December, temperature trends are likely to be more regional with slightly warmer readings expected for northern and western growing regions, colder for the South. Precipitation trends will also be regional, although most are likely to have less precipitation than the prior year, the strongest anomalies in the West and stretching into the Dakotas. More precipitation is expected in the Hard Red Wheat region of the Plains increasing the chance of beneficial snow cover. Winter Season (January-February): Against strong warmth in January 2017, expect considerably colder temperatures for nearly all areas east of the Rockies, the coldest anomalies from the Eastern Corn Belt into the Southeast. Conversely, the West and particularly the Pacific Northwest should have a warmer trend. Regards precipitation, most areas should be drier particularly in the West and in the Hard Red Wheat region from Texas to Kansas. That said, more of the precipitation is likely to be snow given the colder temperatures, a good trend for Winter Wheat and other winter grasses. February is expected to trend very similar to January, characterized by much colder temperatures east of the Rockies. Only the Pacific Northwest region is expected to trend warmer. Against a record-setting month for precipitation in California, expect considerably less moisture to include less snowpack. Other areas of the West will be drier as well. Elsewhere, nearly all regions will have more precipitation benefitting soil moisture levels heading into planting season. This will include the potential for more snow events which would greatly benefit the Wheat areas. Texas will trend slightly drier. Planting Season (March-April): March is expected to come in considerably cooler for areas that are typically planting to include all Southern Tier states. This will likely contribute to a ‘less early’ planting trend for all manner of spring crops to include corn, cotton, rice, and sorghum. Colder temperatures are expected as well in the West. Slightly warmer readings are more likely for the Upper Midwest and Northeast. Wetter conditions are expected for the southern states which could contribute to relatively more fieldwork delays. More precipitation is also likely from southern California and the Southwest into the Dakotas, some of which will mean increased late winter snow cover. Conversely, anticipate drier conditions across the Pacific Northwest along with most locations from the Corn Belt into the Northeast. April is likely to follow March as a cooler month for most growing areas, potentially putting a damper on fieldwork for some. The warmer exception is expected in the West. However, it should be a considerably drier month for most particularly from the Missouri Valley east to the Carolinas. Also drier across much of the West. This trend should be helpful, resulting in relatively drier fields and planting could accelerate for some. A wetter Florida is likely. Early Growing Season (May-June): Anticipate a cooler trend vs. last year in most locations which will curtail the early pace of Growing Degree Day (GDD) units. The western states are likely to be much cooler. The only warmer exceptions are expected in portions of the MS Delta and the Northeast. Expect a considerably drier trend for nearly all regions east of the Mississippi River allowing for improved fieldwork; also drier in the wheat areas of the Western High Plains. The wetter conditions are likely to be focused in Western states, Texas, and the Dakotas which were quite dry in May 2017. June will bring considerably warmer temperatures to the southeastern quarter of the U.S. to encompass all of the Southeast, MidSouth, and Delta regions. Growing Degree Day (GDD) units should be considerably accelerated. Cooler readings will be focused across all of the West into the Northern Plains. While the Plains and western states should have more precipitation overall, most eastern areas will have a relatively drier trend, particularly the Southeast and Great Lakes. Primary Growing Season (July): Against a warm July last year, most growing areas are expected to be cooler to some degree which will include the Corn Belt states. The coolest anomalies, however, will be across the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains states. The warmer exceptions to last year are likely to be along the Northern Tier. While the West and Northern Plains will have more precipitation, most eastern regions are likely to be drier against a very wet month for many. The Southern Plains from Texas to Kansas should also experience more wet weather.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Maps
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for November 2017 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • November 2017 is anticipated to trend colder than LY across most of the U.S., with the coldest variances appearing in the North Central, Northern Mountain, and Pacific Northwest regions. • Warmer temperatures than LY should be expected in the Southwest and pockets along the East Coast. • All of Canada can expect colder conditions than LY, although coldest comparisons will be focused across the West.
Mean Temper atur e 2017 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (November2016 vs. Normal)
Lo cati o n
2017 O utl o o k
2017 vs . LY
Richmond, VA
51.2°F
+1.4°F
Sacramento
55.7°F
+0.9°F
Wichita
49.8°F
-3.5°F
Boise
43.1°F
-3.8°F
Altanta
54.9°F
-4.0°F
Minneapolis
39.8°F
-4.3°F
Pierre, SD
38.2°F
-4.3°F
Bismarck, ND
34.2°F
-5.4°F
PRECIPITATION • November is expected to trend wetter across much of the U.S. from the Pacific and Northern Mountain regions to the East South Central, East North Central, Mid-Atlantic, and South Atlantic regions. • Drier comparisons to the prior year are expected in Texas, the Four Corners, the West North Central region, and New York state.
LY Actual (Nov. 2016 vs. Nov. 2015)
• Canada should experience increased precipitation in the Southwest Prairies and Eastern Ontario. Western Ontario should be much drier compared to LY. Pr eci pi tati o n Pr Preci ecipi pitati tatioonn 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Lo O vs Locati catioonn Outl utlooookk vs.. LY LY Portland 3.63 in. -3.43 in. Portland 5.47 in. -9.77 Pensacola 4.44 in. +3.57in. in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. -2.50 in. Atlanta 3.90 -+2.91 7.98in. Memphis 5.47in. in. in. San Diego 0.14 in. -1.1 Charlotte 3.28 -+2.48 5.40in. in. Raleigh-Durham 3.08in. in. in. New York City 3.70 in. +1.19 in. Omaha -4.25 Columbus, OH 1.01 3.18in. in. +2.16in. in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. +3.03 in. Chicago 2.12 -2.53 Kansas City 1.95 in. +1.44in. in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. +3.22 in. Los Angeles 2.22 in. +1.14 in. Boise 1.39 in. +1.17 in. Montreal 83.77 mm mm Vancouver mm --37.49 72.92 mm Minneapolis 164.49 1.69 in. -1.29 in. Vancouver 60.35 mm -18.44 Montreal 82.98 mm -48.39 mm mm Brownsville
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1.72 in.
-2.70 in.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for December 2017 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In December 2017, anticipate slightly warmer than LY temperatures throughout the West North Central, East North Central, MidAtlantic, and New England regions. The Northwest will see the warmest comparisons to the prior year. • The Southern Tier of the U.S. is expected to trend colder than December 2016, with the coldest comparisons in Florida. • Most major markets in Canada can expect warmer conditions versus LY. Anticipate slightly colder temperatures in parts of Ontario.
2017 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (December 2016 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Boise
32.2°F
+8.8°F
Pierre, SD
20.2°F
+4.4°F
Goodland, KS
29.7°F
+3.8°F
Grand Rapids, MI
30.6°F
+3.0°F
Indianapolis
33.1°F
+2.8°F
Dubuque, IA
23.4°F
+2.3°F
Jackson, MS
50.9°F
-1.8°F
Houston
56.5°F
-2.1°F
PRECIPITATION • December is expected to trend drier than LY across much of the U.S., especially in the Northern Plains, Mountain region, and south Texas. • Anticipate wetter comparisons to the prior year across the Central Plains and in pockets of the Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic.
LY Actual (Dec. 2016 vs. Dec. 2015)
• The majority of Canada should experience less precipitation versus December 2016. The driest comparisons are expected across parts of the Prairies and Ontario. Northern British Columbia will see wetter conditions. Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n Preci pi tati on 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs .. LY LY Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Portland 3.63 -3.43 Portland 5.47 in. in. -9.77 in. in. Fort Smith, AR 3.24 in. +2.47in. in. Philadelphia 3.77 -2.50 Atlanta 3.90 in. in. - 7.98in. Birmingham 4.28 in. +1.89 in. San Diego 0.14 Charlotte 3.28 in. in. - -1.1 5.40in. in. St. Louis 2.86 in. +1.73 in. New York City 3.70 +1.19 in. Omaha 1.01 in. in. -4.25 in. Peoria, IL 2.30 in. +1.16 in. Oklahoma 4.09 in. in. +3.03 in. ChicagoCity 2.12 -2.53 in. Bakersfield, CA 1.09 in. -1.27 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 +3.22 Los Angeles 2.22 in. in. +1.14 in. in. Memphis 5.57mm in. -37.49 -1.76 in. Montreal 83.77 Vancouver 164.49 mm - 72.92 mm mm Bismarck, ND 60.35 0.47 in. -18.44 -2.95 in. Vancouver Montreal 82.98 mm mm -48.39 mm mm San Antonio
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1.89 in.
-4.33 in.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for January 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In January 2018, anticipate much colder conditions to LY for the eastern half of the U.S. • A warmer vs. LY trend will be focused in the West, with the warmest comparisons in the Northwest. • Canada can expect a similar pattern to the U.S. for January 2018. The eastern half of the country will be much colder than LY, while British Columbia and southern portions of Alberta will be warmer.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (January 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Boise
29.4°F
+8.1°F
Billings
26.9°F
+7.8°F
St. Louis
31.6°F
-6.4°F
Dubuque, IA
16.8°F
-7.0°F
Memphis
40.8°F
-7.8°F
Columbus, OH
28.6°F
-8.3°F
Jackson, MS
46.1°F
-9.0°F
Birmingham, AL
43.3°F
-'9.2°F
PRECIPITATION • January is expected to trend drier than LY across much of the U.S., especially in California, the Southwest, and Central Plains. • Much of the Northeast, Northern Plains, and Tennessee Valley is expected to see similar precipitation to January 2017. • Major markets in Canada, from Winnipeg eastward, will see near to slightly drier than LY conditions. Major western markets will be similar to slightly wetter than 2017.
LY Actual (Jan. 2017 vs. Jan. 2016)
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Preci Pr tati Pr eci ecipipi pitati tatioo onn n 2018 2016 2016 Lo O Lo cati Locati catioo onn n O utl utlooookk Shreveport, LA 4.40 Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47in. in. Brownsville 1.44 in. Philadelphia 3.77 Atlanta 3.90 in. in. Grand 1.96 in. SanRapids, Diego MI 3.28 0.14 in. Charlotte in. Indianapolis 2.60 in. New York City 3.70 in. Omaha 1.01 in. Wichita City 0.85 in. Oklahoma 4.09 in. Chicago 2.12 in. Boise 1.16 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 Los Angeles 2.22 in. in. Atlanta 4.40 Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49in. mm Sacramento 3.46 in. Vancouver 60.35 mm Montreal 82.98 mm
2018 2016 2016 vs vs LY vs... LY LY
+1.84 -3.43 in. -9.77 in. in. +1.26 in. -2.50 in. - 7.98in.
-1.22 in. - -1.1 5.40in. in.
-1.75 +1.19 in. -4.25in. in. -1.94 +3.03 in. -2.53in. in. -2.11 in. +3.22 +1.14 in. in. -37.49 mm - -3.74 72.92in. mm -6.46 in. -18.44 mm -48.39 mm
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for February 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In February 2018, anticipate colder conditions for the majority of the U.S. compared to a record warm February 2017. • Warmer temperatures vs. LY will be focused in the Pacific Northwest. • Canada can expect a similar pattern to the U.S. for February 2018. Central and eastern locations will be much colder than LY, while British Columbia and parts of Alberta will see a warmer trend.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (February 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Spokane
33.2°F
Billings
30.5°F
+3.9°F +0.6°F
Memphis
44.1°F
-10.8°F
Omaha
26.8°F
-10.9°F
Minneapolis
19.0°F
-12.2°F
St. Louis
34.6°F
-13.0°F
Indianapolis
30.0°F
-13.3°F
Dubuque, IA
20.1°F
-'13.8°F
PRECIPITATION • February 2018 is expected to trend drier than LY across the Northwest, California, southern Texas, and parts of New England. • The Central Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic are expected to see increased precipitation vs. LY. • Canada is projected to be drier than LY across the country with driest comparisons expected in the Prairies and Ontario.
LY Actual (Feb. 2017 vs. Feb. 2016)
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Preci pi tati o n Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n 2018 2016 2016 Lo cati o n O utl o o k Lo utl o Lo cati cati o on nLA O O4.75 utl o oin. o kk Shreveport, Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 in. Atlanta 4.51 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 in. St. Louis 2.16 in. San Diego 0.14 in. in. Charlotte 3.28 Kansas City 1.48 in. New York City 3.70 in. in. Omaha 1.01 Duluth 0.87 in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. Chicago 2.12 San Antonio 1.67 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. LosSpokane Angeles 2.22 in. 1.38 in. Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Sacramento 3.57 in. Vancouver 60.35 Montreal 82.98 mm mm
2018 2016 2016 vs . LY vs vs .. LY LY +3.17 in. -3.43 in. -9.77 in. +2.64 in. -2.50 in. 7.98in. +1.67 in. - -1.1 5.40in. in. +1.42 in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -1.43 in. +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -1.94 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 in. -3.01 in. -37.49 mm - 72.92 mm -4.72 in. -18.44 -48.39 mm mm
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for March 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In March 2018, anticipate colder conditions vs. LY for the majority of the U.S. The coldest anomalies will be across the Mountain and South Central regions. • Warmer temperatures vs. LY will be focused in the Northeast. • Canada can expect colder temperatures in central and western locations versus March of 2017. A warmer trend will be focused in eastern markets.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (March 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Grand Rapids, MI
35.4°F
+0.3°F
Sacramento
55.5°F
-1.2°F
Peoria
31.6°F
-1.4°F
Omaha
40.4°F
-2.9°F
Memphis
53.4°F
-3.6°F -3.9°F
Wichita
47.6°F
Jackson, MS
57.5°F
-4.8°F
Midland, TX
57.2°F
-'7.3°F
PRECIPITATION • For March 2018, anticipate a drier trend vs. LY across the northern U.S., with the exception of the Northern Plains. • The Southern Tier is expected to see increased precipitation vs. LY, with the wettest comparisons in the Southwest and Florida. • Canada is projected to be drier than LY across the country with driest comparisons expected in the Prairies and British Columbia.
LY Actual (Mar. 2017 vs. Mar. 2016)
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Preci pi tati o n Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n 2018 2016 2016 Lo cati o n O utl o o k Lo cati o n O utl Lo cati o n O utl o oo o kk Pensacola 5.51 in. Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 in. Memphis 5.13 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 Minneapolis 1.87 in. in. San Diego 0.14 in. in. Charlotte 3.28 Pierre, SD 1.19 in. New York City 3.70 in. in. Omaha 1.01 Des Moines 2.26 in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. Chicago 2.12 Columbus, OH 3.08 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. LosHouston Angeles 2.22 in. 3.34 in. Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Spokane 1.54 in. Vancouver 60.35 Montreal 82.98 mm mm
2018 2016 2016 vs . LY vs .. LY vs LY +3.15 in. -3.43 in. -9.77 in. +2.58 in. -2.50 in. -+1.19 7.98in. in. -1.1 -+1.06 5.40in. in. in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -1.21 in. +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -2.09 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 in. -2.27 in. -37.49 mm - 72.92 mm -2.57 in. -18.44 -48.39 mm mm
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for April 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In April 2018, expect cooler conditions vs. LY for most of the U.S. The coolest anomalies are anticipated east of the Mississippi River and along the central Canadian border. • Canada can also look for cooler temperatures to LY across most major markets. Only the northeastern Maritimes is expected to have warmer conditions than April 2017. Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY
2018 Outlook vs. LY
Boise
51.6°F
+0.5°F
Omaha
51.6°F
-2.8°F
Bismarck, ND
41.7°F
-3.5°F
St. Louis
58.0°F
-4.2°F
Atlanta
62.9°F
-5.0°F
Indianapolis
54.0°F
-5.3°F
Raleigh-Durham
60.9°F
-5.6°F
Columbus, OH
54.0°F
-5.8°F
PRECIPITATION LY Actual (April 2017 vs. Normal)
• In April 2018, anticipate a drier trend vs. LY across the Pacific Northwest and from the Central Plains stretching east to the Atlantic. • The wettest comparisons to LY should be anticipated in the Southwest and Florida. • Canada is also projected to be drier than LY across the country with driest comparisons expected in the West and from Ontario to the east.
LY Actual (April 2017 vs. April 2016)
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Preci pi tati o n 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n Houston 3.50 in. 2016 2016 Richmond, VA 3.30 in. Lo cati o n O utl o Lo cati o n O utl o oin. o kk Minneapolis 2.73 Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 Sacramento 1.14 in. in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 Atlanta 3.42 in. in. San Diego 0.14 in. in. Charlotte Grand Rapids, MI 3.28 3.30 in. New York City 3.70 in. in. Omaha 1.01 Wichita 2.71 in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. Chicago 2.12 St. Louis 3.72 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 Los Angeles 2.22 in. in. Montreal 83.77 Vancouver 164.49mm mm Vancouver 60.35 Montreal 82.98 mm mm
2018 vs . LY +1.82 in.
2016 2016 vs vs .. LY LY -1.72 in. -3.43 in. -9.77 -1.79 in. in. -2.50 in. --2.33 7.98in. in. -1.1 --2.96 5.40in. in. in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -4.56 in. +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -6.65 in. +3.22 +1.14 in. in. -37.49 - 72.92 mm mm -18.44 -48.39 mm mm +1.02 in.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for May 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In May 2018, expect cooler temperatures vs. LY for most of the U.S. The coolest anomalies are expected in the Mountain Region and North Central Plains. • Cooler than LY readings will extend into nearly all eastern regions, except for parts of New England and Louisiana. • Much of Canada will also trend cooler vs. May 2017. The coolest departures from last year are expected in Alberta and the Prairies. Major eastern markets are expected to be near to slightly warmer than last year.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (May 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temper Temperature Mean atur e 2018 2018 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs LY Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . .LY New Orleans 75.8°F +1.9°F Richmond 75.9°F +1.4°F Sacramento 66.4°F -1.0°F Houston 83.4F +1.2°F Atlanta 69.6°F -1.5°F Chicago 69.2°F -2.4°F Goodland, KS 56.6°F -2.0°F Portland 62.7°F -3.4°F Omaha 60.9°F -2.2°F Kansas City 74.3°F -4.2°F Yakima, WA 58.4°F -2.9°F Salt Lake City 68.9°F -8.6°F St. Louis 65.6°F -3.1°F Toronto 18.6°C -1.4°C Pierre, SD 54.5°F -'3.5°F Calgary 13.0°C -3.3°C
PRECIPITATION • In May 2018, drier than LY conditions are expected in portions of the Central Plains, Northeast, and the Southeast. • A wetter trend to LY is expected in the West, with the Northern Plains, California, and parts of the Southwest Coast to see the wettest comparisons.
LY Actual (May 2017 vs. May 2016)
• Canada, however, is expected to be drier vs. LY in most provinces, with the driest anomalies from Quebec to Ontario. Winnipeg will be slightly wetter than LY. Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n 2016 2016 Preci pi tati o n 2016 2016 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs .. LY 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs LY Portland 3.63 in. -3.43 in. Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Portland 5.47 in. -9.77 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. -2.50 in. Oklahoma 4.74 in. in. in. Atlanta City 3.90 -+3.64 7.98in. San Diego 0.14 -1.1 Dallas 4.80 in. in. in. Charlotte 3.28 in. -+3.57 5.40in. New York CityMI 3.70 +1.19 in. Grand Rapids, 3.97 in. in. +2.48 in. in. Omaha 1.01 in. -4.25 Oklahoma 4.09 in. +3.03 in. Bismarck, ND 2.41 in. in. +2.16 in. in. ChicagoCity 2.12 -2.53 Charleston, SC 5.91 in. +3.22 Minneapolis 3.39 -1.41 in. Los Angeles 2.22 in. +1.14 in. in. Montreal 83.77 mm -37.49 mm Raleigh-Durham 3.32 in. -2.32 in. Vancouver 164.49 mm - 72.92 mm Vancouver 60.35 -18.44 mm Indianapolis 5.03 mm in. -3.38 in. Montreal 82.98 mm -48.39 mm Shreveport
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4.86 in.
-4.74 in.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for June 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In June 2018, expect cooler temperatures vs. LY across the West, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The coolest comparisons are expected in the Southwest. • A warmer trend to 2017 is anticipated for the Southeast and Central to Southern Plains. • Canada will be encompassed by a slightly cooler trend to LY. The coolest deviations are expected in Alberta and the Maritimes.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Mean Temper atur e
Jackson, MS
80.3°F
+2.8°F
2017 2017 78.7°F +2.1°F Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Memphis 80.4°F +2.0°F Richmond 75.9°F +1.4°F Cincinnati 72.7°F +1.4°F Houston 83.4F +1.2°F Minneapolis 69.0°F -2.3°F Chicago 69.2°F -2.4°F Pierre, SD 66.3°F -3.2°F Portland 62.7°F -3.4°F Bakersfield 78.6°F -4.2°F Kansas City 74.3°F -4.2°F Bismarck, ND 63.3°F -4.4°F Salt Lake City 68.9°F -8.6°F Toronto 18.6°C -1.4°C PRECIPITATION Calgary 13.0°C -3.3°C • In June 2018, wetter than LY conditions will be focused across the western half of the U.S. with portions of the Southwest expected to see the greatest deviations. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic are also expected to be wetter vs. LY. Atlanta
LY Actual (June 2017 vs. Normal)
• Drier conditions to LY are anticipated for portions of the East, concentrated in the Southeast and Ohio Valley. • Canada will see a similar trend to the U.S. Eastern markets are expected to be drier vs. the prior year, while southwestern markets should see wetter comparisons. LY Actual (June 2017 vs. June 2016)
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Preci pi tati o nn Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on Precipitation 2018 2016 2016 Lo cati o on O2018 utl oookk Lo O Lo cati cati o n n O utl utl o ook Location Outlook San Antonio 4.33 in. Portland 3.63 Portland 5.47 in. in. Oklahoma City 4.79 in. Des Moines 4.88 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 in. St.St.Louis 4.29 in. Louis 4.29 in. San Diego 0.14 in. Charlotte 3.28 in. Philadelphia 3.36 in. Peoria 3.49 in. New York City 3.70 in. Omaha 1.01 in. Cleveland 3.42 in. Kansas City 5.19 in. Oklahoma 4.09 in. ChicagoCity 2.12 in. Miami 9.86 Indianapolis 4.45 in. in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. LosOrleans Angeles 2.22in. in. New 7.95 Atlanta 4.07 Montreal 83.77 in. mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Montreal AL 87.25 Birmingham, 4.39 mm in. Vancouver 60.35 mm Montreal 82.98 mm Winnipeg 92.94 mm
2018 2016 2016 2018 vs . LY vs vs .. LY LY vs. LY +3.93 in. -3.43 -9.77 in. in. +4.68in.in. +2.54 -2.50 in. -+2.01 7.98in. in. +2.01 in. -1.1 -+1.00 5.40in. in.in. +1.72 in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -2.44in. in. -1.24 +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -6.11 in. -2.08 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 in. -7.53in. in. -3.64 -37.49 mm - 72.92 mm -63.22 mm -6.41 in. -18.44 mm -48.39 +19.74mm mm
13
Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for July 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • Anticipate cooler temperatures across much of the U.S. for July 2018, with the coolest anomalies in the North Central region. • The Great Lakes and Northeast regions, along with pockets of the Southern Tier, can expect slightly warmer than LY conditions. • The Canadian Prairies and portions of British Columbia can expect cooler conditions to LY while the eastern third of the country will experience a warmer than LY pattern.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (July 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo catiMean o n Temper O utl oatur o k e vs . LY Duluth, MN 67.3°F +2.0°F 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl ook vs+0.8°F . LY Brownsville 84.8°F Richmond 75.9°F +1.4°F Omaha 78.0°F -2.1°F Houston 83.4F +1.2°F Des Moines 77.5°F -2.2°F Chicago 69.2°F -2.4°F St. Louis 81.2°F -3.0°F Portland 62.7°F -3.4°F Boise 78.1°F -3.5°F Kansas 74.3°F -4.2°F Pierre,City SD 75.0°F -3.6°F Salt Lake City 68.9°F -8.6°F Bismarck, ND 71.6°F -'4.3°F Toronto 18.6°C -1.4°C Calgary 13.0°C -3.3°C PRECIPITATION • In July 2018, anticipate wetter than LY conditions in California, the Pacific Northwest, and the North Central region. South Texas and other pockets throughout the South and East may see wetter to LY conditions as well. • Portions of the country stretching from the Southwest to the Northeast will be drier than LY.
LY Actual (July 2017 vs. July 2016)
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• Canada should see wetter comparisons in British Columbia and the southern Prairies as well as along the east coast. Much of the country should trend similar to 2017.
Pr eci Preci pitati tatio Pr eci pi pi tati oon nn Precipitation 2016 2018 2016 2018 Lo O catio utlo Lo cati cati oon nn OOutl utl ooo ookk k Location Outlook Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 Des Moines 4.43in. in. Oklahoma City 4.79 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 in. Grand Rapids, MI 3.77 in. St. Louis 4.29 in. San Diego 0.14 in. Charlotte 3.28 in. Atlanta 5.06 in. Philadelphia 3.36 in. New York City 3.70 in. Omaha 1.01 in. San Antonio 2.29in. in. Cleveland 3.42 Oklahoma 4.09 in. in. ChicagoCity 2.12 Indianapolis 4.18in. in. Miami 9.86 Charleston, SC 5.91 in. Los Angeles 2.22 in. Houston 3.72in. in. New Orleans 7.95 Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Montreal IA 87.25 Dubuque, 4.24mm in. Vancouver mm MontrealOH 60.35 82.98 mm Winnipeg 92.94 Columbus, 4.55mm in.
2016 2018 2016 2018 vs vs vs .. .LY LYLY vs. LY -3.43 -9.77 in.in. +3.00in. +4.68 in. -2.50 in.in. -+2.01 7.98in. +2.65 in. -1.1 -+1.00 5.40in. in. +2.38 in. in. +1.19 in. -4.25 +2.13 in. -2.44in. in. +3.03 in. -2.53 -2.00in. in. -6.11 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 -2.57in. in. -7.53 in. mm --37.49 72.92 mm -63.22 -3.18 mm in. -18.44 mm -48.39 mm +19.74 mm -3.93 in.
14
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for Agriculture Report
Planalytics Vision for Agriculture Report provides a statistical "back to normal" projection of temperature and precipitation for use in mid- to long-range planning and forecasting. Normal is defined as the average over the past 10 years for temperature, 30 years for precipitation. Published monthly, Vision uses last year's actual weather as the basis for formulating probable monthly temperature and precipitation values up to a year in the future. Our experience has shown that understanding the difference between last year's weather and average -- or normal -- weather trends provides the most likely scenario for projecting probable weather conditions going forward. Vision contains monthly back-to-normal profiles of temperature and precipitation for major North American agricultural regions covering months four through twelve. Supplementing the Planalytics Vision report are our Seasonal Outlooks covering months one through three, and our 14-day WeatherVue forecasts. For additional information or if you have questions on how best to use this information, please reach out to your account services manager.
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2
Planalytics® Vision North America
Regional Map
BC AND WEST
MARITIMES PRAIRIES
ONTARIO AND CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND ST. LAWRENCE
PACIFIC WEST NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
EAST SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
SOUTH ATLANTIC
Definitions LY Actual Outlook vs. LY
Normal
Display of previous year’s actual temperature and precipitation departures. Display of the temperature and precipitation departures which are created through a deweatherized process. The deweatherized outlooks are the difference between last year’s actuals and the outlook for this year. Outlook values represent a statistical “trend to normal” forecast for the upcoming year. Normal temperatures are based on a 10-year rolling average, while normal precipitation is based on a 30-year average.
NOTE: The Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks provide strategic outlooks for the next 11-months. For outlooks specific to your business, inclusive of category outlooks by locations, please access the Insights website via www.planalytics.com or contact your Planalytics Client Services representative.
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3
Planalytics® Vision North America
U.S. Executive Overview for Agriculture Post Harvest Season (November-December): For November, against a very warm month last year, anticipate considerably colder readings, the coldest anomalies expected across northernmost growing areas. Combined with increased precipitation (to include more snow/ice episodes), expect post harvest fieldwork to experience delays for some. In December, temperature trends are likely to be more regional with slightly warmer readings expected for northern and western growing regions, colder for the South. Precipitation trends will also be regional, although most are likely to have less precipitation than the prior year, the strongest anomalies in the West and stretching into the Dakotas. More precipitation is expected in the Hard Red Wheat region of the Plains increasing the chance of beneficial snow cover. Winter Season (January-February): Against strong warmth in January 2017, expect considerably colder temperatures for nearly all areas east of the Rockies, the coldest anomalies from the Eastern Corn Belt into the Southeast. Conversely, the West and particularly the Pacific Northwest should have a warmer trend. Regards precipitation, most areas should be drier particularly in the West and in the Hard Red Wheat region from Texas to Kansas. That said, more of the precipitation is likely to be snow given the colder temperatures, a good trend for Winter Wheat and other winter grasses. February is expected to trend very similar to January, characterized by much colder temperatures east of the Rockies. Only the Pacific Northwest region is expected to trend warmer. Against a record-setting month for precipitation in California, expect considerably less moisture to include less snowpack. Other areas of the West will be drier as well. Elsewhere, nearly all regions will have more precipitation benefitting soil moisture levels heading into planting season. This will include the potential for more snow events which would greatly benefit the Wheat areas. Texas will trend slightly drier. Planting Season (March-April): March is expected to come in considerably cooler for areas that are typically planting to include all Southern Tier states. This will likely contribute to a ‘less early’ planting trend for all manner of spring crops to include corn, cotton, rice, and sorghum. Colder temperatures are expected as well in the West. Slightly warmer readings are more likely for the Upper Midwest and Northeast. Wetter conditions are expected for the southern states which could contribute to relatively more fieldwork delays. More precipitation is also likely from southern California and the Southwest into the Dakotas, some of which will mean increased late winter snow cover. Conversely, anticipate drier conditions across the Pacific Northwest along with most locations from the Corn Belt into the Northeast. April is likely to follow March as a cooler month for most growing areas, potentially putting a damper on fieldwork for some. The warmer exception is expected in the West. However, it should be a considerably drier month for most particularly from the Missouri Valley east to the Carolinas. Also drier across much of the West. This trend should be helpful, resulting in relatively drier fields and planting could accelerate for some. A wetter Florida is likely. Early Growing Season (May-June): Anticipate a cooler trend vs. last year in most locations which will curtail the early pace of Growing Degree Day (GDD) units. The western states are likely to be much cooler. The only warmer exceptions are expected in portions of the MS Delta and the Northeast. Expect a considerably drier trend for nearly all regions east of the Mississippi River allowing for improved fieldwork; also drier in the wheat areas of the Western High Plains. The wetter conditions are likely to be focused in Western states, Texas, and the Dakotas which were quite dry in May 2017. June will bring considerably warmer temperatures to the southeastern quarter of the U.S. to encompass all of the Southeast, MidSouth, and Delta regions. Growing Degree Day (GDD) units should be considerably accelerated. Cooler readings will be focused across all of the West into the Northern Plains. While the Plains and western states should have more precipitation overall, most eastern areas will have a relatively drier trend, particularly the Southeast and Great Lakes. Primary Growing Season (July): Against a warm July last year, most growing areas are expected to be cooler to some degree which will include the Corn Belt states. The coolest anomalies, however, will be across the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains states. The warmer exceptions to last year are likely to be along the Northern Tier. While the West and Northern Plains will have more precipitation, most eastern regions are likely to be drier against a very wet month for many. The Southern Plains from Texas to Kansas should also experience more wet weather.
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4
Planalytics® Vision North America
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Maps
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5
Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for November 2017 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • November 2017 is anticipated to trend colder than LY across most of the U.S., with the coldest variances appearing in the North Central, Northern Mountain, and Pacific Northwest regions. • Warmer temperatures than LY should be expected in the Southwest and pockets along the East Coast. • All of Canada can expect colder conditions than LY, although coldest comparisons will be focused across the West.
Mean Temper atur e 2017 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (November2016 vs. Normal)
Lo cati o n
2017 O utl o o k
2017 vs . LY
Richmond, VA
51.2°F
+1.4°F
Sacramento
55.7°F
+0.9°F
Wichita
49.8°F
-3.5°F
Boise
43.1°F
-3.8°F
Altanta
54.9°F
-4.0°F
Minneapolis
39.8°F
-4.3°F
Pierre, SD
38.2°F
-4.3°F
Bismarck, ND
34.2°F
-5.4°F
PRECIPITATION • November is expected to trend wetter across much of the U.S. from the Pacific and Northern Mountain regions to the East South Central, East North Central, Mid-Atlantic, and South Atlantic regions. • Drier comparisons to the prior year are expected in Texas, the Four Corners, the West North Central region, and New York state.
LY Actual (Nov. 2016 vs. Nov. 2015)
• Canada should experience increased precipitation in the Southwest Prairies and Eastern Ontario. Western Ontario should be much drier compared to LY. Pr eci pi tati o n Pr Preci ecipi pitati tatioonn 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Lo O vs Locati catioonn Outl utlooookk vs.. LY LY Portland 3.63 in. -3.43 in. Portland 5.47 in. -9.77 Pensacola 4.44 in. +3.57in. in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. -2.50 in. Atlanta 3.90 -+2.91 7.98in. Memphis 5.47in. in. in. San Diego 0.14 in. -1.1 Charlotte 3.28 -+2.48 5.40in. in. Raleigh-Durham 3.08in. in. in. New York City 3.70 in. +1.19 in. Omaha -4.25 Columbus, OH 1.01 3.18in. in. +2.16in. in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. +3.03 in. Chicago 2.12 -2.53 Kansas City 1.95 in. +1.44in. in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. +3.22 in. Los Angeles 2.22 in. +1.14 in. Boise 1.39 in. +1.17 in. Montreal 83.77 mm mm Vancouver mm --37.49 72.92 mm Minneapolis 164.49 1.69 in. -1.29 in. Vancouver 60.35 mm -18.44 Montreal 82.98 mm -48.39 mm mm Brownsville
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1.72 in.
-2.70 in.
6
Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for December 2017 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In December 2017, anticipate slightly warmer than LY temperatures throughout the West North Central, East North Central, MidAtlantic, and New England regions. The Northwest will see the warmest comparisons to the prior year. • The Southern Tier of the U.S. is expected to trend colder than December 2016, with the coldest comparisons in Florida. • Most major markets in Canada can expect warmer conditions versus LY. Anticipate slightly colder temperatures in parts of Ontario.
2017 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (December 2016 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Boise
32.2°F
+8.8°F
Pierre, SD
20.2°F
+4.4°F
Goodland, KS
29.7°F
+3.8°F
Grand Rapids, MI
30.6°F
+3.0°F
Indianapolis
33.1°F
+2.8°F
Dubuque, IA
23.4°F
+2.3°F
Jackson, MS
50.9°F
-1.8°F
Houston
56.5°F
-2.1°F
PRECIPITATION • December is expected to trend drier than LY across much of the U.S., especially in the Northern Plains, Mountain region, and south Texas. • Anticipate wetter comparisons to the prior year across the Central Plains and in pockets of the Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic.
LY Actual (Dec. 2016 vs. Dec. 2015)
• The majority of Canada should experience less precipitation versus December 2016. The driest comparisons are expected across parts of the Prairies and Ontario. Northern British Columbia will see wetter conditions. Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n Preci pi tati on 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs .. LY LY Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Portland 3.63 -3.43 Portland 5.47 in. in. -9.77 in. in. Fort Smith, AR 3.24 in. +2.47in. in. Philadelphia 3.77 -2.50 Atlanta 3.90 in. in. - 7.98in. Birmingham 4.28 in. +1.89 in. San Diego 0.14 Charlotte 3.28 in. in. - -1.1 5.40in. in. St. Louis 2.86 in. +1.73 in. New York City 3.70 +1.19 in. Omaha 1.01 in. in. -4.25 in. Peoria, IL 2.30 in. +1.16 in. Oklahoma 4.09 in. in. +3.03 in. ChicagoCity 2.12 -2.53 in. Bakersfield, CA 1.09 in. -1.27 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 +3.22 Los Angeles 2.22 in. in. +1.14 in. in. Memphis 5.57mm in. -37.49 -1.76 in. Montreal 83.77 Vancouver 164.49 mm - 72.92 mm mm Bismarck, ND 60.35 0.47 in. -18.44 -2.95 in. Vancouver Montreal 82.98 mm mm -48.39 mm mm San Antonio
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1.89 in.
-4.33 in.
7
Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for January 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In January 2018, anticipate much colder conditions to LY for the eastern half of the U.S. • A warmer vs. LY trend will be focused in the West, with the warmest comparisons in the Northwest. • Canada can expect a similar pattern to the U.S. for January 2018. The eastern half of the country will be much colder than LY, while British Columbia and southern portions of Alberta will be warmer.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (January 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Boise
29.4°F
+8.1°F
Billings
26.9°F
+7.8°F
St. Louis
31.6°F
-6.4°F
Dubuque, IA
16.8°F
-7.0°F
Memphis
40.8°F
-7.8°F
Columbus, OH
28.6°F
-8.3°F
Jackson, MS
46.1°F
-9.0°F
Birmingham, AL
43.3°F
-'9.2°F
PRECIPITATION • January is expected to trend drier than LY across much of the U.S., especially in California, the Southwest, and Central Plains. • Much of the Northeast, Northern Plains, and Tennessee Valley is expected to see similar precipitation to January 2017. • Major markets in Canada, from Winnipeg eastward, will see near to slightly drier than LY conditions. Major western markets will be similar to slightly wetter than 2017.
LY Actual (Jan. 2017 vs. Jan. 2016)
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Preci Pr tati Pr eci ecipipi pitati tatioo onn n 2018 2016 2016 Lo O Lo cati Locati catioo onn n O utl utlooookk Shreveport, LA 4.40 Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47in. in. Brownsville 1.44 in. Philadelphia 3.77 Atlanta 3.90 in. in. Grand 1.96 in. SanRapids, Diego MI 3.28 0.14 in. Charlotte in. Indianapolis 2.60 in. New York City 3.70 in. Omaha 1.01 in. Wichita City 0.85 in. Oklahoma 4.09 in. Chicago 2.12 in. Boise 1.16 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 Los Angeles 2.22 in. in. Atlanta 4.40 Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49in. mm Sacramento 3.46 in. Vancouver 60.35 mm Montreal 82.98 mm
2018 2016 2016 vs vs LY vs... LY LY
+1.84 -3.43 in. -9.77 in. in. +1.26 in. -2.50 in. - 7.98in.
-1.22 in. - -1.1 5.40in. in.
-1.75 +1.19 in. -4.25in. in. -1.94 +3.03 in. -2.53in. in. -2.11 in. +3.22 +1.14 in. in. -37.49 mm - -3.74 72.92in. mm -6.46 in. -18.44 mm -48.39 mm
8
Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for February 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In February 2018, anticipate colder conditions for the majority of the U.S. compared to a record warm February 2017. • Warmer temperatures vs. LY will be focused in the Pacific Northwest. • Canada can expect a similar pattern to the U.S. for February 2018. Central and eastern locations will be much colder than LY, while British Columbia and parts of Alberta will see a warmer trend.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (February 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Spokane
33.2°F
Billings
30.5°F
+3.9°F +0.6°F
Memphis
44.1°F
-10.8°F
Omaha
26.8°F
-10.9°F
Minneapolis
19.0°F
-12.2°F
St. Louis
34.6°F
-13.0°F
Indianapolis
30.0°F
-13.3°F
Dubuque, IA
20.1°F
-'13.8°F
PRECIPITATION • February 2018 is expected to trend drier than LY across the Northwest, California, southern Texas, and parts of New England. • The Central Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic are expected to see increased precipitation vs. LY. • Canada is projected to be drier than LY across the country with driest comparisons expected in the Prairies and Ontario.
LY Actual (Feb. 2017 vs. Feb. 2016)
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Preci pi tati o n Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n 2018 2016 2016 Lo cati o n O utl o o k Lo utl o Lo cati cati o on nLA O O4.75 utl o oin. o kk Shreveport, Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 in. Atlanta 4.51 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 in. St. Louis 2.16 in. San Diego 0.14 in. in. Charlotte 3.28 Kansas City 1.48 in. New York City 3.70 in. in. Omaha 1.01 Duluth 0.87 in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. Chicago 2.12 San Antonio 1.67 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. LosSpokane Angeles 2.22 in. 1.38 in. Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Sacramento 3.57 in. Vancouver 60.35 Montreal 82.98 mm mm
2018 2016 2016 vs . LY vs vs .. LY LY +3.17 in. -3.43 in. -9.77 in. +2.64 in. -2.50 in. 7.98in. +1.67 in. - -1.1 5.40in. in. +1.42 in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -1.43 in. +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -1.94 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 in. -3.01 in. -37.49 mm - 72.92 mm -4.72 in. -18.44 -48.39 mm mm
9
Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for March 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In March 2018, anticipate colder conditions vs. LY for the majority of the U.S. The coldest anomalies will be across the Mountain and South Central regions. • Warmer temperatures vs. LY will be focused in the Northeast. • Canada can expect colder temperatures in central and western locations versus March of 2017. A warmer trend will be focused in eastern markets.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (March 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Grand Rapids, MI
35.4°F
+0.3°F
Sacramento
55.5°F
-1.2°F
Peoria
31.6°F
-1.4°F
Omaha
40.4°F
-2.9°F
Memphis
53.4°F
-3.6°F -3.9°F
Wichita
47.6°F
Jackson, MS
57.5°F
-4.8°F
Midland, TX
57.2°F
-'7.3°F
PRECIPITATION • For March 2018, anticipate a drier trend vs. LY across the northern U.S., with the exception of the Northern Plains. • The Southern Tier is expected to see increased precipitation vs. LY, with the wettest comparisons in the Southwest and Florida. • Canada is projected to be drier than LY across the country with driest comparisons expected in the Prairies and British Columbia.
LY Actual (Mar. 2017 vs. Mar. 2016)
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Preci pi tati o n Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n 2018 2016 2016 Lo cati o n O utl o o k Lo cati o n O utl Lo cati o n O utl o oo o kk Pensacola 5.51 in. Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 in. Memphis 5.13 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 Minneapolis 1.87 in. in. San Diego 0.14 in. in. Charlotte 3.28 Pierre, SD 1.19 in. New York City 3.70 in. in. Omaha 1.01 Des Moines 2.26 in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. Chicago 2.12 Columbus, OH 3.08 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. LosHouston Angeles 2.22 in. 3.34 in. Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Spokane 1.54 in. Vancouver 60.35 Montreal 82.98 mm mm
2018 2016 2016 vs . LY vs .. LY vs LY +3.15 in. -3.43 in. -9.77 in. +2.58 in. -2.50 in. -+1.19 7.98in. in. -1.1 -+1.06 5.40in. in. in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -1.21 in. +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -2.09 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 in. -2.27 in. -37.49 mm - 72.92 mm -2.57 in. -18.44 -48.39 mm mm
10
Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for April 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In April 2018, expect cooler conditions vs. LY for most of the U.S. The coolest anomalies are anticipated east of the Mississippi River and along the central Canadian border. • Canada can also look for cooler temperatures to LY across most major markets. Only the northeastern Maritimes is expected to have warmer conditions than April 2017. Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY
2018 Outlook vs. LY
Boise
51.6°F
+0.5°F
Omaha
51.6°F
-2.8°F
Bismarck, ND
41.7°F
-3.5°F
St. Louis
58.0°F
-4.2°F
Atlanta
62.9°F
-5.0°F
Indianapolis
54.0°F
-5.3°F
Raleigh-Durham
60.9°F
-5.6°F
Columbus, OH
54.0°F
-5.8°F
PRECIPITATION LY Actual (April 2017 vs. Normal)
• In April 2018, anticipate a drier trend vs. LY across the Pacific Northwest and from the Central Plains stretching east to the Atlantic. • The wettest comparisons to LY should be anticipated in the Southwest and Florida. • Canada is also projected to be drier than LY across the country with driest comparisons expected in the West and from Ontario to the east.
LY Actual (April 2017 vs. April 2016)
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Preci pi tati o n 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n Houston 3.50 in. 2016 2016 Richmond, VA 3.30 in. Lo cati o n O utl o Lo cati o n O utl o oin. o kk Minneapolis 2.73 Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 Sacramento 1.14 in. in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 Atlanta 3.42 in. in. San Diego 0.14 in. in. Charlotte Grand Rapids, MI 3.28 3.30 in. New York City 3.70 in. in. Omaha 1.01 Wichita 2.71 in. Oklahoma City 4.09 in. in. Chicago 2.12 St. Louis 3.72 in. Charleston, SC 5.91 Los Angeles 2.22 in. in. Montreal 83.77 Vancouver 164.49mm mm Vancouver 60.35 Montreal 82.98 mm mm
2018 vs . LY +1.82 in.
2016 2016 vs vs .. LY LY -1.72 in. -3.43 in. -9.77 -1.79 in. in. -2.50 in. --2.33 7.98in. in. -1.1 --2.96 5.40in. in. in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -4.56 in. +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -6.65 in. +3.22 +1.14 in. in. -37.49 - 72.92 mm mm -18.44 -48.39 mm mm +1.02 in.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for May 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In May 2018, expect cooler temperatures vs. LY for most of the U.S. The coolest anomalies are expected in the Mountain Region and North Central Plains. • Cooler than LY readings will extend into nearly all eastern regions, except for parts of New England and Louisiana. • Much of Canada will also trend cooler vs. May 2017. The coolest departures from last year are expected in Alberta and the Prairies. Major eastern markets are expected to be near to slightly warmer than last year.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (May 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temper Temperature Mean atur e 2018 2018 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs LY Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . .LY New Orleans 75.8°F +1.9°F Richmond 75.9°F +1.4°F Sacramento 66.4°F -1.0°F Houston 83.4F +1.2°F Atlanta 69.6°F -1.5°F Chicago 69.2°F -2.4°F Goodland, KS 56.6°F -2.0°F Portland 62.7°F -3.4°F Omaha 60.9°F -2.2°F Kansas City 74.3°F -4.2°F Yakima, WA 58.4°F -2.9°F Salt Lake City 68.9°F -8.6°F St. Louis 65.6°F -3.1°F Toronto 18.6°C -1.4°C Pierre, SD 54.5°F -'3.5°F Calgary 13.0°C -3.3°C
PRECIPITATION • In May 2018, drier than LY conditions are expected in portions of the Central Plains, Northeast, and the Southeast. • A wetter trend to LY is expected in the West, with the Northern Plains, California, and parts of the Southwest Coast to see the wettest comparisons.
LY Actual (May 2017 vs. May 2016)
• Canada, however, is expected to be drier vs. LY in most provinces, with the driest anomalies from Quebec to Ontario. Winnipeg will be slightly wetter than LY. Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on n 2016 2016 Preci pi tati o n 2016 2016 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs .. LY 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs LY Portland 3.63 in. -3.43 in. Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Portland 5.47 in. -9.77 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. -2.50 in. Oklahoma 4.74 in. in. in. Atlanta City 3.90 -+3.64 7.98in. San Diego 0.14 -1.1 Dallas 4.80 in. in. in. Charlotte 3.28 in. -+3.57 5.40in. New York CityMI 3.70 +1.19 in. Grand Rapids, 3.97 in. in. +2.48 in. in. Omaha 1.01 in. -4.25 Oklahoma 4.09 in. +3.03 in. Bismarck, ND 2.41 in. in. +2.16 in. in. ChicagoCity 2.12 -2.53 Charleston, SC 5.91 in. +3.22 Minneapolis 3.39 -1.41 in. Los Angeles 2.22 in. +1.14 in. in. Montreal 83.77 mm -37.49 mm Raleigh-Durham 3.32 in. -2.32 in. Vancouver 164.49 mm - 72.92 mm Vancouver 60.35 -18.44 mm Indianapolis 5.03 mm in. -3.38 in. Montreal 82.98 mm -48.39 mm Shreveport
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4.86 in.
-4.74 in.
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for June 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • In June 2018, expect cooler temperatures vs. LY across the West, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The coolest comparisons are expected in the Southwest. • A warmer trend to 2017 is anticipated for the Southeast and Central to Southern Plains. • Canada will be encompassed by a slightly cooler trend to LY. The coolest deviations are expected in Alberta and the Maritimes.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Mean Temper atur e
Jackson, MS
80.3°F
+2.8°F
2017 2017 78.7°F +2.1°F Lo cati o n O utl o o k vs . LY Memphis 80.4°F +2.0°F Richmond 75.9°F +1.4°F Cincinnati 72.7°F +1.4°F Houston 83.4F +1.2°F Minneapolis 69.0°F -2.3°F Chicago 69.2°F -2.4°F Pierre, SD 66.3°F -3.2°F Portland 62.7°F -3.4°F Bakersfield 78.6°F -4.2°F Kansas City 74.3°F -4.2°F Bismarck, ND 63.3°F -4.4°F Salt Lake City 68.9°F -8.6°F Toronto 18.6°C -1.4°C PRECIPITATION Calgary 13.0°C -3.3°C • In June 2018, wetter than LY conditions will be focused across the western half of the U.S. with portions of the Southwest expected to see the greatest deviations. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic are also expected to be wetter vs. LY. Atlanta
LY Actual (June 2017 vs. Normal)
• Drier conditions to LY are anticipated for portions of the East, concentrated in the Southeast and Ohio Valley. • Canada will see a similar trend to the U.S. Eastern markets are expected to be drier vs. the prior year, while southwestern markets should see wetter comparisons. LY Actual (June 2017 vs. June 2016)
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Preci pi tati o nn Pr Pr eci eci pi pi tati tati o on Precipitation 2018 2016 2016 Lo cati o on O2018 utl oookk Lo O Lo cati cati o n n O utl utl o ook Location Outlook San Antonio 4.33 in. Portland 3.63 Portland 5.47 in. in. Oklahoma City 4.79 in. Des Moines 4.88 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 in. St.St.Louis 4.29 in. Louis 4.29 in. San Diego 0.14 in. Charlotte 3.28 in. Philadelphia 3.36 in. Peoria 3.49 in. New York City 3.70 in. Omaha 1.01 in. Cleveland 3.42 in. Kansas City 5.19 in. Oklahoma 4.09 in. ChicagoCity 2.12 in. Miami 9.86 Indianapolis 4.45 in. in. Charleston, SC 5.91 in. LosOrleans Angeles 2.22in. in. New 7.95 Atlanta 4.07 Montreal 83.77 in. mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Montreal AL 87.25 Birmingham, 4.39 mm in. Vancouver 60.35 mm Montreal 82.98 mm Winnipeg 92.94 mm
2018 2016 2016 2018 vs . LY vs vs .. LY LY vs. LY +3.93 in. -3.43 -9.77 in. in. +4.68in.in. +2.54 -2.50 in. -+2.01 7.98in. in. +2.01 in. -1.1 -+1.00 5.40in. in.in. +1.72 in. +1.19 in. -4.25 in. -2.44in. in. -1.24 +3.03 in. -2.53 in. -6.11 in. -2.08 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 in. -7.53in. in. -3.64 -37.49 mm - 72.92 mm -63.22 mm -6.41 in. -18.44 mm -48.39 +19.74mm mm
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Planalytics® Vision North America
Planalytics Vision for July 2018 TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Temperature (Departures) in Degrees
Precipitation (Departures) %
Normal Mean Temperature
Normal Precipitation
KEY TAKEAWAYS TEMPERATURE • Anticipate cooler temperatures across much of the U.S. for July 2018, with the coolest anomalies in the North Central region. • The Great Lakes and Northeast regions, along with pockets of the Southern Tier, can expect slightly warmer than LY conditions. • The Canadian Prairies and portions of British Columbia can expect cooler conditions to LY while the eastern third of the country will experience a warmer than LY pattern.
2018 Outlook vs. LY
LY Actual (July 2017 vs. Normal)
Mean Temperature 2018 2018 Lo catiMean o n Temper O utl oatur o k e vs . LY Duluth, MN 67.3°F +2.0°F 2017 2017 Lo cati o n O utl ook vs+0.8°F . LY Brownsville 84.8°F Richmond 75.9°F +1.4°F Omaha 78.0°F -2.1°F Houston 83.4F +1.2°F Des Moines 77.5°F -2.2°F Chicago 69.2°F -2.4°F St. Louis 81.2°F -3.0°F Portland 62.7°F -3.4°F Boise 78.1°F -3.5°F Kansas 74.3°F -4.2°F Pierre,City SD 75.0°F -3.6°F Salt Lake City 68.9°F -8.6°F Bismarck, ND 71.6°F -'4.3°F Toronto 18.6°C -1.4°C Calgary 13.0°C -3.3°C PRECIPITATION • In July 2018, anticipate wetter than LY conditions in California, the Pacific Northwest, and the North Central region. South Texas and other pockets throughout the South and East may see wetter to LY conditions as well. • Portions of the country stretching from the Southwest to the Northeast will be drier than LY.
LY Actual (July 2017 vs. July 2016)
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• Canada should see wetter comparisons in British Columbia and the southern Prairies as well as along the east coast. Much of the country should trend similar to 2017.
Pr eci Preci pitati tatio Pr eci pi pi tati oon nn Precipitation 2016 2018 2016 2018 Lo O catio utlo Lo cati cati oon nn OOutl utl ooo ookk k Location Outlook Portland 3.63 in. Portland 5.47 Des Moines 4.43in. in. Oklahoma City 4.79 in. Philadelphia 3.77 in. Atlanta 3.90 in. Grand Rapids, MI 3.77 in. St. Louis 4.29 in. San Diego 0.14 in. Charlotte 3.28 in. Atlanta 5.06 in. Philadelphia 3.36 in. New York City 3.70 in. Omaha 1.01 in. San Antonio 2.29in. in. Cleveland 3.42 Oklahoma 4.09 in. in. ChicagoCity 2.12 Indianapolis 4.18in. in. Miami 9.86 Charleston, SC 5.91 in. Los Angeles 2.22 in. Houston 3.72in. in. New Orleans 7.95 Montreal 83.77 mm Vancouver 164.49 mm Montreal IA 87.25 Dubuque, 4.24mm in. Vancouver mm MontrealOH 60.35 82.98 mm Winnipeg 92.94 Columbus, 4.55mm in.
2016 2018 2016 2018 vs vs vs .. .LY LYLY vs. LY -3.43 -9.77 in.in. +3.00in. +4.68 in. -2.50 in.in. -+2.01 7.98in. +2.65 in. -1.1 -+1.00 5.40in. in. +2.38 in. in. +1.19 in. -4.25 +2.13 in. -2.44in. in. +3.03 in. -2.53 -2.00in. in. -6.11 in. +3.22 in. +1.14 -2.57in. in. -7.53 in. mm --37.49 72.92 mm -63.22 -3.18 mm in. -18.44 mm -48.39 mm +19.74 mm -3.93 in.
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