Volume 19 Number 1
A PUBLICATION OF COLE HARGRAVE SNODGRASS & ASSOCIATES VOLUME 19 - NUMBER 3
October 2009
Oklahomans United in Support of Wind Power Overwhelming majorities of both parties and major demographic groups support using wind to meet electrical needs by Pat McFerron Director of Survey Research This most recent edition of the Sooner Survey reveals that while politics often divides the state, Oklahomans are united in their support for harnessing the wind energy available in the state. In addition to other more nuanced issues, the survey clearly reveals three substantial facts about Oklahoma’s voters: 1) Oklahomans embrace wind power as a source of electricity 2) Oklahomans are willing to pay more for electricity generated by wind power 3) Oklahomans prefer to invest in more substantial wind power transmission rather than smaller lines that may not meet future needs Without any education on the issue, fully 83% of Oklahomans agree (and 59% strongly agree) Oklahoma should try to meet its electricity needs by using renewable energy such as wind power. In addition, 91% approve (72% strongly approve) of the further development of wind farms for producing Oklahoma’s needed electricity – that’s more than double those who approve of either coal or nuclear and substantially higher than those approving of natural gas fired plants (76% approve).
Support for wind power transcends all parts of the state and all socio-economic groups. It appeals to both younger and older Oklahomans, as well as Republicans and Democrats. In fact, Oklahomans are so supportive of using wind power that they break against their normal antiregulation and anti-mandate sentiments and 67% favor a requirement that 20% of the nation’s electricity needs be met with wind power by the year 2025. Again, we see broad support, including from registered Republicans (59% favor), urban dwellers (67% favor), rural residents (68% favor) and registered Democrats who supported John McCain – the most critical swing bloc in Oklahoma politics. Not only do Oklahomans support wind energy in theory, but they are also willing to put their money where their mouth is. When voters are asked how much more a month they would be willing to pay to build the infrastructure so that Oklahoma can meet its increased electricity needs through wind power, 72% indicate a willingness to pay more for their electricity to have it generated by wind power. Included in this are 40% who are willing to pay more than six dollars each month – 60% are willing to pay more than two dollars a month. (story continued on page 2)
Key Facts Oklahomans of all political leanings overwhelmingly support the use of wind power to meet Oklahoma’s electricity needs. Building the infrastructure for wind power is a more popular means of generating electricity than building new plants designed to utilize coal, nuclear or even natural gas as fuel. Oklahomans are so committed to the benefits of wind power that 72% of are willing to pay more for the electricity if it is generated by wind. Fully 40% of Oklahomans are willing to pay more than $6 a month ($72 a year) to have their electricity generated by wind. By a better than three-toone margin, Oklahomans favor building larger transmission lines for wind power so that it can be an economic engine for the state and better utilize the wind we have.
SOONER SURVEY This support again cuts across normal political and other demographic strata. For example, 67% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 70% of swing voters all say they are willing to pay more each month for wind generated electricity. When it comes to the type of investment Oklahomans want to see in wind energy, they opt by a wide margin for building larger transmission lines that will provide for greater ability to sell electricity to other states and meet needs for a longer period of time. When given arguments both for and against a greater investment in transmission lines, 62% of voters opt for the more significant investment, while only 18% prefer the smaller option. Again, we see support spanning the political gambit, though it should be noted that upper-income voters lead the charge on this issue. Clearly, much of the state’s leadership is in favor of harvesting the wind that is a natural resource for much of western Oklahoma. Also of note is that even among those less inclined to support wind energy, a plurality of that minority of voters support the larger transmission infrastructure. This study does not delve into the reasons why Oklahomans are supportive of wind energy, so one should be careful not to draw conclusions about other “green” causes from these findings. As has been previously released, Oklahomans are among the nation’s most reticent to share concerns about global warming and other green issues. Regardless Oklahomans clearly embrace wind energy.
Use Wind Power to Meet Needs? 83%
Agree
Disagree
86%
89%
78%
88%
83%
90% 80%
73%
70% 60% 50% 40%
14%
30%
23%
19% 9%
7%
9%
14% 20% 10% 0%
All
2
Men
Women
Republican
Democrat
Cons. Dems
Swing
October 2009 1.
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: If possible, Oklahoma should try to meet its electricity needs by using renewable energy such as wind power. (After response, ask:) Would you say you strongly (agree/disagree) or only somewhat (agree/disagree)? Strongly agree ............................................... 59% Somewhat agree ............................................ 24% Somewhat disagree ....................................... 7% Strongly disagree .......................................... 7% Undecided (vol.) ........................................... 4% Now I’m going to read to you a list of different ways to generate electricity for Oklahoma. For each one, I want you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of using that technology to produce additional electricity in Oklahoma. (After each response, ask: Would you say you strongly (approve / disapprove) or only somewhat (approve /disapprove)? (Rotate series)
2. 3. 4. 5.
Strongly Approve The development of wind farms 72% Building a new coal-fired electric plant 20% Building a nuclear electrical plant 24% Building a natural gas fired electrical plant 41%
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Und.
19%
3%
4%
2%
25%
24%
24%
8%
21%
17%
30%
8%
35%
10%
6%
8%
Pat McFerron is a nationally recognized pollster. McFerron has supervised polling for numerous successful gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, Congressional and legislative clients throughout the nation. In addition, McFerron conducted polling for Oklahoma City’s MAPS for Kids and the recent effort to secure an NBA team, as well as Tulsa’s Vision 2025 election and Oklahoma’s historic right to work campaign. McFerron also oversees marketing research projects for CHS clients that range from Fortune 500 companies to innovative start-ups.
6.
How much more a month in higher electric cost would you be willing to pay to build the infrastructure so Oklahoma can meet its increased electricity needs through wind energy? Would you be willing to pay: More than $10 more a month ........................ 17% Between $6 and $10 more a month ................ 23% Between $2 and $6 more a month ................. 20% Up to $2 more per month ............................... 12% Or are you not willing to pay any more per month ............................................. 23% Undecided (vol.) ........................................... 6%
7.
One of the primary costs of developing wind power is the building of transmission lines to bring the electricity from the wind turbines located in rural areas to places where it can be stored and distributed. As Oklahoma starts this build out there is some debate as to what the state should do. Some people say… (Rotate statements) While other people say… (Read remaining statement) … that we should build larger transmission lines because we will eventually need them. They say this will be necessary for us to get the full benefit of exporting excess electricity and that it is far better to build the large lines now than having to rebuild them in future years. They say that just like we sell natural gas and oil to other states, we need the infrastructure so we can sell the wind power out of state and bring money back to Oklahoma. … other people say that we should build the smaller transmission lines. They say that these lines will more than meet the needs of Oklahomans for years to come and that it would be a waste of ratepayer money to build the larger lines and that the real beneficiary of the larger lines are those living out of state. What do you think? As we build transmission lines for wind energy, should we build the larger or the smaller transmission lines? Larger ............................................................ 62% Smaller ........................................................... 18% Undecided (vol.) ........................................... 20%
3
SOONER SURVEY How Much Extra Would You Pay for Wind Power? All Values Per Month
$6 or More 40%
40%
Up to $6
40%
39% 35%
32% 23%
Nothing
37%
30%
20%
40%
35% 31%
30% 27%
25%
39%
35% 30%
25% 20%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
All
Men
Women
Republican
Democrat
Swing
This edition of the Sooner Survey was conducted between September 20 - 24, 2009. It was a telephone survey of 600 registered voters in the State of Oklahoma. Each sample accurately reflects the electorate of that district. The confidence interval associated with samples of this type is such that 95% of the time, the results are within +/- 3.9% of the “true values,” where “true values” refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every voter in the state.
The Sooner Survey is published by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, Inc., (405) 415-3017. Subscriptions are $240 per year.
The Authoritative Newsletter of Oklahoma Political Information Since 1989
A Publication of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates Post Office Box 2034 Oklahoma City, OK 73101
4
October 2009
Oklahomans United in Support of Wind Power Overwhelming majorities of both parties and major demographic groups support using wind to meet electrical needs by Pat McFerron Director of Survey Research This most recent edition of the Sooner Survey reveals that while politics often divides the state, Oklahomans are united in their support for harnessing the wind energy available in the state. In addition to other more nuanced issues, the survey clearly reveals three substantial facts about Oklahoma’s voters: 1) Oklahomans embrace wind power as a source of electricity 2) Oklahomans are willing to pay more for electricity generated by wind power 3) Oklahomans prefer to invest in more substantial wind power transmission rather than smaller lines that may not meet future needs Without any education on the issue, fully 83% of Oklahomans agree (and 59% strongly agree) Oklahoma should try to meet its electricity needs by using renewable energy such as wind power. In addition, 91% approve (72% strongly approve) of the further development of wind farms for producing Oklahoma’s needed electricity – that’s more than double those who approve of either coal or nuclear and substantially higher than those approving of natural gas fired plants (76% approve).
Support for wind power transcends all parts of the state and all socio-economic groups. It appeals to both younger and older Oklahomans, as well as Republicans and Democrats. In fact, Oklahomans are so supportive of using wind power that they break against their normal antiregulation and anti-mandate sentiments and 67% favor a requirement that 20% of the nation’s electricity needs be met with wind power by the year 2025. Again, we see broad support, including from registered Republicans (59% favor), urban dwellers (67% favor), rural residents (68% favor) and registered Democrats who supported John McCain – the most critical swing bloc in Oklahoma politics. Not only do Oklahomans support wind energy in theory, but they are also willing to put their money where their mouth is. When voters are asked how much more a month they would be willing to pay to build the infrastructure so that Oklahoma can meet its increased electricity needs through wind power, 72% indicate a willingness to pay more for their electricity to have it generated by wind power. Included in this are 40% who are willing to pay more than six dollars each month – 60% are willing to pay more than two dollars a month. (story continued on page 2)
Key Facts Oklahomans of all political leanings overwhelmingly support the use of wind power to meet Oklahoma’s electricity needs. Building the infrastructure for wind power is a more popular means of generating electricity than building new plants designed to utilize coal, nuclear or even natural gas as fuel. Oklahomans are so committed to the benefits of wind power that 72% of are willing to pay more for the electricity if it is generated by wind. Fully 40% of Oklahomans are willing to pay more than $6 a month ($72 a year) to have their electricity generated by wind. By a better than three-toone margin, Oklahomans favor building larger transmission lines for wind power so that it can be an economic engine for the state and better utilize the wind we have.
SOONER SURVEY This support again cuts across normal political and other demographic strata. For example, 67% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 70% of swing voters all say they are willing to pay more each month for wind generated electricity. When it comes to the type of investment Oklahomans want to see in wind energy, they opt by a wide margin for building larger transmission lines that will provide for greater ability to sell electricity to other states and meet needs for a longer period of time. When given arguments both for and against a greater investment in transmission lines, 62% of voters opt for the more significant investment, while only 18% prefer the smaller option. Again, we see support spanning the political gambit, though it should be noted that upper-income voters lead the charge on this issue. Clearly, much of the state’s leadership is in favor of harvesting the wind that is a natural resource for much of western Oklahoma. Also of note is that even among those less inclined to support wind energy, a plurality of that minority of voters support the larger transmission infrastructure. This study does not delve into the reasons why Oklahomans are supportive of wind energy, so one should be careful not to draw conclusions about other “green” causes from these findings. As has been previously released, Oklahomans are among the nation’s most reticent to share concerns about global warming and other green issues. Regardless Oklahomans clearly embrace wind energy.
Use Wind Power to Meet Needs? 83%
Agree
Disagree
86%
89%
78%
88%
83%
90% 80%
73%
70% 60% 50% 40%
14%
30%
23%
19% 9%
7%
9%
14% 20% 10% 0%
All
2
Men
Women
Republican
Democrat
Cons. Dems
Swing
October 2009 1.
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: If possible, Oklahoma should try to meet its electricity needs by using renewable energy such as wind power. (After response, ask:) Would you say you strongly (agree/disagree) or only somewhat (agree/disagree)? Strongly agree ............................................... 59% Somewhat agree ............................................ 24% Somewhat disagree ....................................... 7% Strongly disagree .......................................... 7% Undecided (vol.) ........................................... 4% Now I’m going to read to you a list of different ways to generate electricity for Oklahoma. For each one, I want you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of using that technology to produce additional electricity in Oklahoma. (After each response, ask: Would you say you strongly (approve / disapprove) or only somewhat (approve /disapprove)? (Rotate series)
2. 3. 4. 5.
Strongly Approve The development of wind farms 72% Building a new coal-fired electric plant 20% Building a nuclear electrical plant 24% Building a natural gas fired electrical plant 41%
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Und.
19%
3%
4%
2%
25%
24%
24%
8%
21%
17%
30%
8%
35%
10%
6%
8%
Pat McFerron is a nationally recognized pollster. McFerron has supervised polling for numerous successful gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, Congressional and legislative clients throughout the nation. In addition, McFerron conducted polling for Oklahoma City’s MAPS for Kids and the recent effort to secure an NBA team, as well as Tulsa’s Vision 2025 election and Oklahoma’s historic right to work campaign. McFerron also oversees marketing research projects for CHS clients that range from Fortune 500 companies to innovative start-ups.
6.
How much more a month in higher electric cost would you be willing to pay to build the infrastructure so Oklahoma can meet its increased electricity needs through wind energy? Would you be willing to pay: More than $10 more a month ........................ 17% Between $6 and $10 more a month ................ 23% Between $2 and $6 more a month ................. 20% Up to $2 more per month ............................... 12% Or are you not willing to pay any more per month ............................................. 23% Undecided (vol.) ........................................... 6%
7.
One of the primary costs of developing wind power is the building of transmission lines to bring the electricity from the wind turbines located in rural areas to places where it can be stored and distributed. As Oklahoma starts this build out there is some debate as to what the state should do. Some people say… (Rotate statements) While other people say… (Read remaining statement) … that we should build larger transmission lines because we will eventually need them. They say this will be necessary for us to get the full benefit of exporting excess electricity and that it is far better to build the large lines now than having to rebuild them in future years. They say that just like we sell natural gas and oil to other states, we need the infrastructure so we can sell the wind power out of state and bring money back to Oklahoma. … other people say that we should build the smaller transmission lines. They say that these lines will more than meet the needs of Oklahomans for years to come and that it would be a waste of ratepayer money to build the larger lines and that the real beneficiary of the larger lines are those living out of state. What do you think? As we build transmission lines for wind energy, should we build the larger or the smaller transmission lines? Larger ............................................................ 62% Smaller ........................................................... 18% Undecided (vol.) ........................................... 20%
3
SOONER SURVEY How Much Extra Would You Pay for Wind Power? All Values Per Month
$6 or More 40%
40%
Up to $6
40%
39% 35%
32% 23%
Nothing
37%
30%
20%
40%
35% 31%
30% 27%
25%
39%
35% 30%
25% 20%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
All
Men
Women
Republican
Democrat
Swing
This edition of the Sooner Survey was conducted between September 20 - 24, 2009. It was a telephone survey of 600 registered voters in the State of Oklahoma. Each sample accurately reflects the electorate of that district. The confidence interval associated with samples of this type is such that 95% of the time, the results are within +/- 3.9% of the “true values,” where “true values” refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every voter in the state.
The Sooner Survey is published by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, Inc., (405) 415-3017. Subscriptions are $240 per year.
The Authoritative Newsletter of Oklahoma Political Information Since 1989
A Publication of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates Post Office Box 2034 Oklahoma City, OK 73101
4
