Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Wednesday, October 12, 2011 SOYBEANS… Interesting USDA Oct crop report. The report showed higher US/World wheat supply, higher US/World corn supply but US carryout is still historically tight. US soybean carryout forecast remains tight. World stocks are adequate. Soybean futures opened lower, traded higher, broke back then closed higher. Soybean futures may now be willing to establish more of a trading range with demand and economic concerns offering resistance and tight US supply offering support. Bulls still feel that the Nov or Jan USDA report could show a lower US yield. USDA admitted that 45 pct of the survey plot fields were harvested for this report vs 71 ly. This does leave room for them to adjust the yield in later reports. Bears still feel the crop is actually larger than today’s USDA number. USDA est world 2011/12 soybean crop at 258.6 mmt vs 254.1 ly. Total use was est near 261.7 mmt vs 251.2 lt. End stocks were est near 63.01 mmt vs 69.3 ly. World stocks are adequate and should offer resistance to prices. USDA still est Brazil soybean crop near 73.5 mmt vs 75.5 ly. Argentina crop is est near 53.0 mmt vs 49.0 ly. China soybean imports are still est at 56.5 mmt vs 52.0 ly. US 2011 crop was est at 3060 mil bu vs 3085 est in Sep and 3329 ly. Crush was est at 1635 mil same as last month and vs 1648 ly. US exports were lowered to 1375 mil vs 1415 est in Sep and 1500 ly. US carryout was est near 160 mil vs 165 in Sep and 215 ly. Traders feel SN12-SX12 spread could rally higher from here just like last year. Last year the spread went from +35 to +120 by Jan. US Soybean Export Basis: 60X up 2 CORN… Corn futures closed lower. Bearish USDA World wheat and corn supply and demand offered resistance. Lack of US farmer selling and a tight US corn carryout offered support. CZ closed down 4 cents and near 6.40. Range was 6.28-6.55. Corn trade higher overnight on talk of Chinese export interest, lower dollar and fears USDA could lower the US Oct 1 US corn yield. Fact USDA kept the yield unchanged and raised the US/World corn end stocks offered resistance. Bulls still feel final yield could be lower. USDA did admit that 65 pct of the corn survey plots were harvested for this report vs 89 ly. This could leave room for them to adjust the yield either in Nov or Jan. Bears feel that the corn crop could still be higher than the USDA but admit that once wheat bottoms and if US farmer limits new selling until the end of the year, corn futures could trend higher. Some also feel CN12CZ12 could still firm from current prices to +130 just like last year. USDA est World corn crop at 860.1 mmt vs 828.3 ly. Total use was est at 866.7 mmt vs 842.4 ly. End stocks were est near 123.2 mmt vs 117.4 est in Sep and 129.8 ly. China crop was raised 4 mmt to 182.0. China total use is est near 186.5 mmt vs 176.0 ly. USDA est Total US 2011/12 corn supply near 13,576 mil bu vs 14,182 ly. Total use was est at 12,710 mil vs 13.053 ly. Exports were lowered 50 mil bu to 1600 and vs 1835 ly. Ethanol use is est near 5,000 mil bu vs 5,020 ly. Feed/residual is est near 4,700 mil vs 4,803 ly. US corn carryout is now est near 866 mil bu vs 672 est in Sep and 1,128 ly. 141 West Jackson Blvd. Suite 1600A Chicago, IL 60604 www.admis.com
US Corn Export Basis: 68Z dn 1 The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
WHEAT … Wheat futures closed lower. Bearish USDA US/World supply and demand report weighed on prices. WZ closed down 34 cents and near 6.26. Range was 6.20-6.62. KWZ closed down 18 cents and near 7.11. Range was 6.95-7.30. MWZ closed down 32 cents and near 9.03. USDA est World wheat production near 681.2 mmt vs 678.1 est in Sep and 648.2 ly. Crop were raised in FSU(+3), EU(+1) and Australia (+1) and lowered US(-2). World use was est near 674.4 mmt vs 653.3 ly. End stocks were est near 202.4 mmt vs 194.6 est in Sep and 195.6 ly. World exports were est near 135.3 mmt vs 131.1 ly. FSU is est at 34.7 vs 14.1 ly, US 26.5 mmt vs 35.1 Ly, Australia 19.0 mmt vs 18.3 and Canada 18.0 mmt vs 16.5 ly. US total wheat supply was est at 2,990 mil bu vs 3,047 est in Sep and 3,279 ly. Total use was est at 2,153 vs 2,287 est in Sep and 2,417 ly. 134 mil bu drop in demand due to lower feed use (-80) and exports (-50). US wheat carryout was raised to 837 mil vs 761 est in Sep and 862 ly. SRW carryout were raised 47 mil to 244. HRW carryout was raised 26 mil to 298. Weekly Chicago wheat chart hints that once a bottom is made and final wave higher could occur. Today’s USDA numbers though were bearish.
US Wheat Export Basis: 65Z unch Wheat Options… NO OPTION COMMENTS TODAY GRAINS by STEVE FREED, VP of RESEARCH
The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
US Corn Export Basis: 68Z dn 1 The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
WHEAT … Wheat futures closed lower. Bearish USDA US/World supply and demand report weighed on prices. WZ closed down 34 cents and near 6.26. Range was 6.20-6.62. KWZ closed down 18 cents and near 7.11. Range was 6.95-7.30. MWZ closed down 32 cents and near 9.03. USDA est World wheat production near 681.2 mmt vs 678.1 est in Sep and 648.2 ly. Crop were raised in FSU(+3), EU(+1) and Australia (+1) and lowered US(-2). World use was est near 674.4 mmt vs 653.3 ly. End stocks were est near 202.4 mmt vs 194.6 est in Sep and 195.6 ly. World exports were est near 135.3 mmt vs 131.1 ly. FSU is est at 34.7 vs 14.1 ly, US 26.5 mmt vs 35.1 Ly, Australia 19.0 mmt vs 18.3 and Canada 18.0 mmt vs 16.5 ly. US total wheat supply was est at 2,990 mil bu vs 3,047 est in Sep and 3,279 ly. Total use was est at 2,153 vs 2,287 est in Sep and 2,417 ly. 134 mil bu drop in demand due to lower feed use (-80) and exports (-50). US wheat carryout was raised to 837 mil vs 761 est in Sep and 862 ly. SRW carryout were raised 47 mil to 244. HRW carryout was raised 26 mil to 298. Weekly Chicago wheat chart hints that once a bottom is made and final wave higher could occur. Today’s USDA numbers though were bearish.
US Wheat Export Basis: 65Z unch Wheat Options… NO OPTION COMMENTS TODAY GRAINS by STEVE FREED, VP of RESEARCH
The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
