Western Union Business Solutions International Trade Monitor Q4 2012

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INTERNATIONAL TRADE MONITOR JANUARY 2013 Powered by TNS Research

NEW YEAR SEES IMPROVED CONFIDENCE FOR UK SMES BUT DRAG ON BUSINESSES REMAINS

GARETH HEALD,

• UK SME importer and exporter confidence recovers from last quarter’s near record lows. • Eurozone concerns lessen but impact on businesses remains, with increase in SMEs who have reduced staff as a result of the sovereign debt crisis. • Perception of credit availability remains bleak with more SMEs turning to savings to fund business. • Exports to emerging and established markets rise.

“‘Cautiously optimistic’ is the best way to describe SME sentiment at the moment. Confidence has improved compared to a dismal third quarter but we are not out of the woods yet, particularly when considering that there has been a 53% increase in the number of SMEs who have had to reduce staff numbers as a result of being impacted by the eurozone crisis.

Confidence in UK and international economic conditions sees improvement over bleak Q3: • Confidence in the current UK economy rose to 52% in the final quarter of 2012, compared to 46% the previous quarter. • Confidence in international trade conditions also improved, with an 8% increase in SMEs expressing confidence in global trade conditions (68%). Moreover, 54% of SMEs were confident that the international aspect of their business would not be adversely affected by the UK economy. • Nearly one-third (31%) of SMEs expect an export-led recovery; the most cited reasons among those expecting this recovery were emerging market opportunities (81%), growth in the number of UK SMEs operating internationally (80%) and a stabilised eurozone (73%). • 59% of SMEs expect growth in the international trade aspect of their business, a modest 3% rise over Q3, with 53% confident that trade conditions would improve over the next 12 months. • Despite this improvement, the global economy remains the top concern for the fourth quarter running, with 76% expressing concerns over its health. Concerns over Europe decline but pressing issues remain: • More than half of SMEs (54%) name Europe as their top concern; while still high, this figure represents a drop of 7% compared to Q3 2012 and 12% from Q2. • 44% of SMEs surveyed were directly impacted by the eurozone crisis. Of those so far unaffected, only 25% expect to see an adverse effect in the future, a 9% improvement over the previous quarter. • Despite the modest improvement, 23% of the SMEs who have been affected by the sovereign debt crisis have reduced staff numbers, up from 15% last quarter. • Concerns over converting cash reserves, interrupted cash flow and rising operational costs remain high with 46%, 44% and 40% of the SMEs directly affected by the eurozone expressing worries, respectively. • The number of SMEs negatively impacted by currency movements dropped from 27% to 20%. Worries about currency volatility also fell to 49% compared with 61% in the final quarter of 2011. • 40% of SMEs surveyed utilise spot payments to protect against risk, a jump from 33% in the last quarter. One third of SMEs (35%), however, do not use tools to protect against currency risk.

Finance Director, UK, for Western Union Business Solutions, says:

It is promising that companies are becoming increasingly aware of how to offset currency risk, especially as they look to expand operations with a wider portfolio of global partners. It makes good business sense for leaders to explore every avenue in order to drive greater efficiency and protect profit margins. Currency volatility is an area that can be sensibly managed using a number of solutions widely available to the market. Capitalising on such opportunities to reduce FX risk is essential for SMEs as they move further into an everglobalising market.”

MEDIA ENQUIRIES: Jennifer Berlin: 020 8415 4204 0779 549 7129 [email protected] Lauren Franze/George Parrett: 020 7566 6750 [email protected]

INTERNATIONAL TRADE MONITOR JANUARY 2013 Powered by TNS Research EXPORTS RISE; CREDIT CONCERNS REFUSE TO DISSIPATE Growth seen in international activity: Along with increased confidence in international trade conditions, more British SMEs are finding customers in international markets across the board.

GARETH HEALD CONTINUED: “By expanding their portfolio of export locations, it is clear that SMEs are diversifying their businesses to try and insulate against a potentially frosty economic winter. Whilst

Small business exporters with customers in both China and India rose 9%, while those trading with other Asian markets increased 13% quarter on quarter. Exports to both North America and Africa rose 12% while Brazil and Russia recorded a 7% and 6% rise respectively. The number of SMEs with customers in Australasia also rose by 16%.

eurozone concerns have eased for

Europe remains the largest export destination for Britain’s SMEs with 83% of those surveyed having customers in the region (compared to 76% last quarter). Expectations of continued trade with Eurozone are also steady compared to last quarter, with 61% expecting trade to remain unchanged over the next 6 months. 24% expect it to increase, with 12% expecting a decrease over the same period.

The need for better access to

39% have customers in North America while 17% and 14% sell to China and India. With 29% of SMEs selling to other Asian economies, nearly two thirds (60%) of Britain’s small business exporters have customers in Asia. Moreover, 40% expect their cross-border trade with emerging markets to grow while 22% of those not currently trading with emerging economies expect to start as they head into 2013.

engine for economic growth and

now, the wider global outlook is still front of mind for Britain’s small businesses as they widen their reach.

funding is vital as SMEs continue to turn to their own resources as they attempt to stay competitive in the global marketplace. They are the stronger financing will help them turn their growing confidence into growing business.”

This activity appears to have improved faith in the Coalition, with confidence in the effectiveness of Government policy to boost international trade recovering from last quarter’s low of 38% to reach 44% (compared to 43% in both Q1 and Q1 2012). More SMEs rely on personal savings in the face of continued credit concerns: Similar to the third quarter, 53% of SMEs feel credit is important to their business with 27% applying for it in Q4. Only 16% feel credit was easier to obtain now than a year ago, however, and optimism about the Government’s new Business Bank is low; 75% of SMEs say they are unlikely to approach such a bank to obtain credit. The continued negative perception of credit in the market place seems to be influencing SME behaviour with increasing numbers of SMEs saying they have not applied for credit in the last 6 months; a rise from 65% to 74% over the quarter. While half of SMEs felt they could obtain credit fairly easily (54%), 21% are looking at alternative finance – the same number as last quarter. Asset-based financing remains the most popular source of funding being considered by SMEs looking for alternative funding (54%), while 42% are considering tapping personal savings compared to 26% last quarter. Factoring accounts receivables (35%) and credit cards (26%) are also being considered. “Banks aren’t lending to us much so we are reluctant to spend in our business. We’re holding onto [cash] and spending it as and when [we can].” Importer and Exporter, Wholesale

MEDIA ENQUIRIES: Jennifer Berlin: 020 8415 4204 0779 549 7129 [email protected] Lauren Franze/George Parrett: 020 7566 6750 [email protected]

INTERNATIONAL TRADE MONITOR JANUARY 2013 Powered by TNS Research WESTERN UNION BUSINESS SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE MONITOR (ITM) The International Trade Monitor is the only piece of research available that tracks the confidence and sentiment of Britain’s SME importers and exporters and has been running since March 2010 as the Travelex Confidence Index. The research is now conducted on behalf of Western Union Business Solutions, a unit of the Western Union Company (NYSE: WU). OVERALL CONFIDENCE

CURRENT SITUATION MONITOR

GLOBAL OUTLOOK MONITOR

EXPECTATIONS MONITOR

Sub-Monitors The Western Union International Trade Monitor measures the overall confidence of the UK’s importers and exporters by tracking their views across three sub-monitors: the Current Situation Monitor, the Global Outlook Monitor and the Expectations Monitor. THE CURRENT SITUATION MONITOR The Current Situation Monitor measures importers’ and exporters’ views on current economic conditions and availability of business credit. The monitor rose from a low of 88 points in July to 101 in October, the highest number on record since June 2011. A modest recovery in business confidence corresponds with the British economy emerging from its double-dip recession in the third quarter. Although solid UK economic growth in the three months to September was reportedly driven mainly by the London Olympic Games, the robust headline figures seem to have been enough to make an immediate impression on sentiment amongst importers and exporters. THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK MONITOR The Global Outlook Monitor measures importers’ and exporters’ views on trading conditions. This index rose to 111 in October and averaged 108 throughout the fourth quarter, a big improvement from Q3, when it averaged 97. Policymakers in the eurozone bolstered efforts to end the crisis and bring stability back to both European and global financial markets. These efforts were aided by the latest debt arrangement and bailout for Greece and funding for Spain’s troubled banking sector. At the same time, a deal to avert the worst of a potential US fiscal cliff followed November’s US elections, ensuring confidence grew on a global scale and remained elevated over the fourth quarter. Leadership changes in China and Japan, the world’s second and third largest economies respectively, also added to views that new governments would channel more energy into faster economic recovery. THE EXPECTATIONS MONITOR The Expectations Monitor measures importers’ and exporters’ views on whether international trade conditions will improve over the next 6-12 months, and whether their business will see growth in its international activity. This monitor reached 99 in October and 98 in December, a steady improvement from Q3 when it hit a record low of 87 in the month of July. The British government and Bank of England both delivered fairly downbeat assessments about Britain’s economic outlook heading into 2013. Nonetheless, a steady rebound in international trade expectations reflects optimism connected to the momentum that has been slowly building in the world’s strongest economies. Positive economic news from the US and China seem to have bolstered hopes of a friendlier international trading environment over the coming year.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE MONITOR JANUARY 2013 Powered by TNS Research DEMOGRAPHICS BUSINESS LOCATION

OVERSEAS SUPPLIERS China

28

Scotland

12

India Other Asia Russia

Northern Island

22

4

Wales

2

Other

3

77

North America

INDUSTRY SECTOR

32 3

Manufacturing

Other South America

7

Africa

6

41

Wholesale Trade /Retail Trade

10

Australasia Other

6

3

Europe

Brazil

84

England

3

28

Construction

4

Business Services (Not Banking)

3

Transport/Storage

3

Communications

2

OVERSEAS CUSTOMERS Other China

14

India Other Asia

Source: Q18b. In which of the following locations are the majority of your overseas customers based?

29 12

Russia

83

Europe 39

North America 11

Brazil Other South America

MEDIA ENQUIRIES:

14 21

Africa

27

Australasia Other

19

17

7

Jennifer Berlin: 020 8415 4204 0779 549 7129 [email protected] Lauren Franze/George Parrett: 020 7566 6750 [email protected]

INTERNATIONAL TRADE MONITOR JANUARY 2013 Powered by TNS Research

“Stability in the eurozone where most of my customers are would help us get back to the volume of sales that we used to have.” Importer and Exporter, Other

“[The biggest challenge is] to be able to compete with the threat from China.”

MEDIA ENQUIRIES: Jennifer Berlin: 020 8415 4204 0779 549 7129 [email protected] Lauren Franze/George Parrett: 020 7566 6750 [email protected]

Importer and Exporter, Manufacturing

“Government cutbacks are a concern. It’s just slowing business down, delaying it rather than loosening it.” Importer and Exporter, Other

“The manufacturing side of things is improving but we are doing what we can to maintain orders. [We] hope to increase.” Importer and Exporter, Manufacturing

“[The biggest challenges are] competitors, price and lack of footfall in my customers’ showrooms... There has been a general downturn [… and] general negative feedback from both customers and clients because of their customers’ negativity. In other words everyone is negative and no one wants to spend.” Importer, Construction

“I suppose really that we’ve just got to remain very competitive, control overheads and purchase pricing.” Importer and Exporter, Manufacturing

“Finance, banking and finance credit is stifling investment and growth in the business.” - Importer and Exporter, Communications

© 2013 Western Union Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. Western Union acquired Custom House Financial (UK) Limited in 2009 and Travelex Global Business Payments Limited in 2011. Services in the UK are provided by Custom House Financial (UK) Limited or Travelex Global Business Payments Limited (collectively referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”). “Travelex” is a registered trademark of Travellers Exchange Corporation Limited and is used by Travelex Global Business Payments Limited and its affiliates under license. Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company Number 04380026, Registered Office Address: 2nd Floor, 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW) is authorised by the Financial Services Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12140130). Travelex Global Business Payments Limited (registered in England, Company Number 02854737, Registered Office Address: 65 Kingsway, London, WC2B 6TD) is authorised by the Financial Services Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 536611) for the provision of payment services and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12122416). This brochure has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not in any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you and WUBS shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions. No representations, warranties or conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this brochure.