What do you have to lose? amazonaws com
the FOMC is probably the most lucrative of skills to possess.
The Rainmaker Report is a high-level executive summary of global financial markets. This daily dossier is written by a Wall St. veteran with a unique perspective on markets. With actionable information including specific trade recommendations, technical analysis and unfiltered commentary, this is the only analysis you need to read every day to stay informed when it comes to finance, politics, and your money. Today is Tuesday August 24th, 2016:
Emotional Support Spelling Bee Keep it R*eal The Volatility Hard Deck
Good Morning! Today is Wednesday, 2 days before the Janet Yellen Speech. I know it is exciting, I just hope she doesn’t disappoint everyone. Stocks are stuck in a holding pattern as all eyes turn to the Fed. Don Trump started courting Black and Hispanics with the Archie Bunker Strategy®.
“What do you have to lose?”
S&P futures are treading water at 2186, as the Dollar strengthens into the Jackson Hole Meeting. We are getting our first images of Steve Liesman with the Wyoming backdrop, as the Central Bankers of the world arrive for the conference.
-Donald Trump In an interesting story out of Apple, they recently bought a company that helps read people’s emotions. The terms of the deal were undisclosed, but it is important to note how people are looking to layer a level of artificial intelligence on top of these new systems, and reading facial cues is one of the most important things in being able to predict what is going to happen next. Did you know that hitters can read a pitcher’s body cues before the pitch to predict the pitch with a 70% accuracy? The great hitters I mean. Something about body language that allows them to “frontrun” the pitch by anticipating it before it leaves the pitcher’s hand.
Ok, now it is time to catch back to JP Morgan. They are starting to put the pieces together regarding r* and R-Dagger, and all the R-easons why the Natural Rate of Interest is currently negative. Below zero.
In any event, emotion reading is a very in demand skill, and reading the emotions of 1 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
I have to give it to JP Morgan. They are closing in on us when it comes to this line of thinking. Only like 20 papers back now…
“….R you going to the mall later?” They begin to connect the Laubach Williams Dots and soon, when Janet Yellen Confirms these thoughts by merely saying the term r*, it will be the final confirmation that you need that the Fed is indeed moving the goalpost once again. Setting a new condition for rates rising. This time, one that is not going to go down as easily like 5% unemployment. I only want to hear one word from Janet Yellen, and if we hear it we should expect easy money coming.
“In particular, it vastly diminishes the role of data dependence, it replaces transparency with opacity, and it belies any real respect for model uncertainty” -JP Morgan
If this sentence sounds congruous with a September rate rise, then I will see you out on the battlefield. Make sure you helmet is buckled up because it is going to get dangerous for the people betting that way. The Fed’s feet are flinching, and John Williams and Jim Bullard are the Big Toes.
“The Rainmaker is ri..correct” When Janet Yellen starts talking R, it is only a matter of time before Stan Fischer says the term, right? You can’t change R* with talk. Quite the contrary. Only actual borrowing can change R*. Read that again. And then a final time before moving on.
Good thing we marked their shoulders back home, months ago before they knew they were going to change their minds publicly…
R-Star. Can’t say it casually. You have to be talking about the natural rate of interest to talk R. So we will be watching for a talk about balanced risks to the economy, but opening the door to this idea of the Natural Rate of interest being too low. 2 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Let’s get serious about our chart deck because nobody ever made any money talking bullshit. Here is our chart on Oil. We are remarked to the $46 bricks. Now remember last week when all those ridiculous stories came out about OPEC and all the Hedge Funds had to get cleared out of their shorts?
On the dollar, we are moving expeditiously to the 95.47 mark, and hawkish talk would get us there later in the week. “Economy is growing at a modest pace, blah, blah, R *, blah, may be appropriate later this year, dollar shoots the moon.” So make sure you are buckled up in any asset that goes down when the dollar goes up…like Gold.
Well that is over now. They are taking it down, clearing out all the dickheads, and I expect it to happen in a number of other asset classes. We have a mark at $46, and would be playing long from that level.
Listen, the Jackson Hole speech has been written for a while now. Janet Yellen gets to her flight 2 hours early. Her speech is definitely written already. I don’t think everyone is going to be leaving Wyoming thinking about buying Gold miners, fyi… So we are reading the Dollar at the time of the Janet Yellen speech. If it starts to rally during the speech, we can read it as everyone else reading it as hawkish. That is what I am expecting, although the policy wonks will leave with the important papers that are going to decide what we are going to do about this big pR*oblem we are dealing with.
3 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Gold is not where I want to be, as you know, and betting against it might be profitable, although don’t do that until I say go. For now, we are reading the dollar, and we have a very strong idea as to what we think Janet Yellen is going to talk about on Friday. In 2 days. Be ready.
Now I want to talk about volatility. I got a read yesterday on volatility rising from the open, and I think we are going higher in vol. Read that again.
Let’s move to the Russell. We are marked to the target of 1243, and this is going to be our key read of the day. I know we don’t usually do this, but this is the only channel that is still on the upslope, and as it goes, the rest of the Nasdaq/spx goes. So, we are looking to settle down on these bricks at 1243, but I would not be surprised to touch down on the bottom bricks before Friday, at 1229-1230 area. That is where I would look to buy for a bounce, but this will be the key read for stocks today. Said that twice now.
Above you can see the 5 min chart. Do you see the bottom at 9:30? And then, instead of hard decking lower, it stair steps higher. Against the trendline almost perfectly.
This is the chart at 30 mins, and although the line appears to have moved, it is still right against those candles. You can even see the slope of the candles like they are resting on an imaginary brick wall. If you think vol can rise in a predetermined pattern all day, you are right. But it is the work of Central Bankers not real people trading the market.
Now since this is not a real line in space, why is vol respecting it so much? Maybe because we have a trajectory already set, and this road leads higher in Vol into the end of the week. So, we are reading Volatility sloping higher against this trendline.
4 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Ok, the most important chart of the day is the SPY-RSP. As you can see, despite all the bullish talk, this has been in a channel lower all day yesterday. I would point out the one buy signal at the open, and then the small waves all the way to the close.
our Vol and SPY chart break. So we are doing a read option. You read the paper, and then have the option of trading on the information. If you do trade, make sure you have beers though.
What is it about the TTM squeeze panel that seems completely fabricated to you? Knowing what we know about the /VX move at 9:30©? Everything. And that means there could be potential turndown service in SVXY. We are marked at 71.09©, and that would coincide with some Faux Hawkishness. Monday could be off to the races for stocks as the JP Morgans of the world start to R*ealize what is actually happening.
Finally we are marked to the 4799 level on the Nasdaq. Now I am not saying to short a bunch of stuff (unless you are aggressive), but I am saying not to buy until we touch some bottom bricks. So we are going to shade all our plays today with these two thoughts in mind (rising vol/falling SPY-RSP gradient). We have a good mark at 2176, which as you can look back has been a popular landing spot for stocks. Above us is the 2197 mark, and I don’t expect to see that level unless 5
©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Hey, remember a few pages ago when I was talking about how all these dickheads were going to get cleared out in various asset classes before Friday? It is happening already.
Here is the Zero Hedge cover story. They like to use “quotations” when the story is so ridiculous that only the Plunge Protection Team could have made it up. OPEC has nothing to do with the price action in oil. Period. Take that to the bank and deposit it.
A quick look to bonds. For all the action in the 10 year Treasury Futures, the yield seems to want to park inside the triangle at 1.54 Brickhouse Road.
This is a dick/head clearing session. When it is over we are expecting to touch the $46 bricks©.
I guess you can cross the 1337© target off the list, but the point is that there is no reason to sell 1.5 Billion in gold unless you are trying to cause a giant sell bar, and clear out the owners of gold. We saw it 2 days ago in oil, and now it is Gold. Make sure you don’t lose money when it happens in Vol and stocks later today/tomorrow potentially.
Thanks for taking the time to ride with the Rainmaker. Let’s roll.
Alejandro Reyes 6 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
The Rainmaker Investor Report is prepared by and is the property of Rainmaker Report, LLC and is distributed for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment need, objectives, or risk tolerances of any of the recipients. This report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instrument mentioned. Each recipient should consult their own counsel, including tax advice before making any investment decision. Any performance figures do not include transactional costs and are presented as estimates only. The information, views, statements, and opinions are based on sources, public and private considered to be reliable, however no warranty is made to their accuracy. Mr. Reyes is not an investment advisor and cannot make recommendations to you to buy or sell specific securities. Please consult your own advisor before acting on any of the information in this document or any other document received from Rainmaker Investor, LLC and its affiliates. Mr. Reyes and/or his employees may have a financial interest in securities or derivatives described This publication is protected by U.S. and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. This publication is a proprietary document and intended strictly for the use of subscribers. No additional license is granted to any subscriber to copy, reproduce, distribute or download without written consent of Rainmaker Report LLC. Violators will be prosecuted. Investors should verify all claims and perform due diligence on any strategy or investment before investing. Investing in derivative securities including futures and options are speculative in nature and carry substantial risk.
7 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
The Rainmaker Report is a high-level executive summary of global financial markets. This daily dossier is written by a Wall St. veteran with a unique perspective on markets. With actionable information including specific trade recommendations, technical analysis and unfiltered commentary, this is the only analysis you need to read every day to stay informed when it comes to finance, politics, and your money. Today is Tuesday August 24th, 2016:
Emotional Support Spelling Bee Keep it R*eal The Volatility Hard Deck
Good Morning! Today is Wednesday, 2 days before the Janet Yellen Speech. I know it is exciting, I just hope she doesn’t disappoint everyone. Stocks are stuck in a holding pattern as all eyes turn to the Fed. Don Trump started courting Black and Hispanics with the Archie Bunker Strategy®.
“What do you have to lose?”
S&P futures are treading water at 2186, as the Dollar strengthens into the Jackson Hole Meeting. We are getting our first images of Steve Liesman with the Wyoming backdrop, as the Central Bankers of the world arrive for the conference.
-Donald Trump In an interesting story out of Apple, they recently bought a company that helps read people’s emotions. The terms of the deal were undisclosed, but it is important to note how people are looking to layer a level of artificial intelligence on top of these new systems, and reading facial cues is one of the most important things in being able to predict what is going to happen next. Did you know that hitters can read a pitcher’s body cues before the pitch to predict the pitch with a 70% accuracy? The great hitters I mean. Something about body language that allows them to “frontrun” the pitch by anticipating it before it leaves the pitcher’s hand.
Ok, now it is time to catch back to JP Morgan. They are starting to put the pieces together regarding r* and R-Dagger, and all the R-easons why the Natural Rate of Interest is currently negative. Below zero.
In any event, emotion reading is a very in demand skill, and reading the emotions of 1 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
I have to give it to JP Morgan. They are closing in on us when it comes to this line of thinking. Only like 20 papers back now…
“….R you going to the mall later?” They begin to connect the Laubach Williams Dots and soon, when Janet Yellen Confirms these thoughts by merely saying the term r*, it will be the final confirmation that you need that the Fed is indeed moving the goalpost once again. Setting a new condition for rates rising. This time, one that is not going to go down as easily like 5% unemployment. I only want to hear one word from Janet Yellen, and if we hear it we should expect easy money coming.
“In particular, it vastly diminishes the role of data dependence, it replaces transparency with opacity, and it belies any real respect for model uncertainty” -JP Morgan
If this sentence sounds congruous with a September rate rise, then I will see you out on the battlefield. Make sure you helmet is buckled up because it is going to get dangerous for the people betting that way. The Fed’s feet are flinching, and John Williams and Jim Bullard are the Big Toes.
“The Rainmaker is ri..correct” When Janet Yellen starts talking R, it is only a matter of time before Stan Fischer says the term, right? You can’t change R* with talk. Quite the contrary. Only actual borrowing can change R*. Read that again. And then a final time before moving on.
Good thing we marked their shoulders back home, months ago before they knew they were going to change their minds publicly…
R-Star. Can’t say it casually. You have to be talking about the natural rate of interest to talk R. So we will be watching for a talk about balanced risks to the economy, but opening the door to this idea of the Natural Rate of interest being too low. 2 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Let’s get serious about our chart deck because nobody ever made any money talking bullshit. Here is our chart on Oil. We are remarked to the $46 bricks. Now remember last week when all those ridiculous stories came out about OPEC and all the Hedge Funds had to get cleared out of their shorts?
On the dollar, we are moving expeditiously to the 95.47 mark, and hawkish talk would get us there later in the week. “Economy is growing at a modest pace, blah, blah, R *, blah, may be appropriate later this year, dollar shoots the moon.” So make sure you are buckled up in any asset that goes down when the dollar goes up…like Gold.
Well that is over now. They are taking it down, clearing out all the dickheads, and I expect it to happen in a number of other asset classes. We have a mark at $46, and would be playing long from that level.
Listen, the Jackson Hole speech has been written for a while now. Janet Yellen gets to her flight 2 hours early. Her speech is definitely written already. I don’t think everyone is going to be leaving Wyoming thinking about buying Gold miners, fyi… So we are reading the Dollar at the time of the Janet Yellen speech. If it starts to rally during the speech, we can read it as everyone else reading it as hawkish. That is what I am expecting, although the policy wonks will leave with the important papers that are going to decide what we are going to do about this big pR*oblem we are dealing with.
3 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Gold is not where I want to be, as you know, and betting against it might be profitable, although don’t do that until I say go. For now, we are reading the dollar, and we have a very strong idea as to what we think Janet Yellen is going to talk about on Friday. In 2 days. Be ready.
Now I want to talk about volatility. I got a read yesterday on volatility rising from the open, and I think we are going higher in vol. Read that again.
Let’s move to the Russell. We are marked to the target of 1243, and this is going to be our key read of the day. I know we don’t usually do this, but this is the only channel that is still on the upslope, and as it goes, the rest of the Nasdaq/spx goes. So, we are looking to settle down on these bricks at 1243, but I would not be surprised to touch down on the bottom bricks before Friday, at 1229-1230 area. That is where I would look to buy for a bounce, but this will be the key read for stocks today. Said that twice now.
Above you can see the 5 min chart. Do you see the bottom at 9:30? And then, instead of hard decking lower, it stair steps higher. Against the trendline almost perfectly.
This is the chart at 30 mins, and although the line appears to have moved, it is still right against those candles. You can even see the slope of the candles like they are resting on an imaginary brick wall. If you think vol can rise in a predetermined pattern all day, you are right. But it is the work of Central Bankers not real people trading the market.
Now since this is not a real line in space, why is vol respecting it so much? Maybe because we have a trajectory already set, and this road leads higher in Vol into the end of the week. So, we are reading Volatility sloping higher against this trendline.
4 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Ok, the most important chart of the day is the SPY-RSP. As you can see, despite all the bullish talk, this has been in a channel lower all day yesterday. I would point out the one buy signal at the open, and then the small waves all the way to the close.
our Vol and SPY chart break. So we are doing a read option. You read the paper, and then have the option of trading on the information. If you do trade, make sure you have beers though.
What is it about the TTM squeeze panel that seems completely fabricated to you? Knowing what we know about the /VX move at 9:30©? Everything. And that means there could be potential turndown service in SVXY. We are marked at 71.09©, and that would coincide with some Faux Hawkishness. Monday could be off to the races for stocks as the JP Morgans of the world start to R*ealize what is actually happening.
Finally we are marked to the 4799 level on the Nasdaq. Now I am not saying to short a bunch of stuff (unless you are aggressive), but I am saying not to buy until we touch some bottom bricks. So we are going to shade all our plays today with these two thoughts in mind (rising vol/falling SPY-RSP gradient). We have a good mark at 2176, which as you can look back has been a popular landing spot for stocks. Above us is the 2197 mark, and I don’t expect to see that level unless 5
©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
Hey, remember a few pages ago when I was talking about how all these dickheads were going to get cleared out in various asset classes before Friday? It is happening already.
Here is the Zero Hedge cover story. They like to use “quotations” when the story is so ridiculous that only the Plunge Protection Team could have made it up. OPEC has nothing to do with the price action in oil. Period. Take that to the bank and deposit it.
A quick look to bonds. For all the action in the 10 year Treasury Futures, the yield seems to want to park inside the triangle at 1.54 Brickhouse Road.
This is a dick/head clearing session. When it is over we are expecting to touch the $46 bricks©.
I guess you can cross the 1337© target off the list, but the point is that there is no reason to sell 1.5 Billion in gold unless you are trying to cause a giant sell bar, and clear out the owners of gold. We saw it 2 days ago in oil, and now it is Gold. Make sure you don’t lose money when it happens in Vol and stocks later today/tomorrow potentially.
Thanks for taking the time to ride with the Rainmaker. Let’s roll.
Alejandro Reyes 6 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
The Rainmaker Investor Report is prepared by and is the property of Rainmaker Report, LLC and is distributed for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment need, objectives, or risk tolerances of any of the recipients. This report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instrument mentioned. Each recipient should consult their own counsel, including tax advice before making any investment decision. Any performance figures do not include transactional costs and are presented as estimates only. The information, views, statements, and opinions are based on sources, public and private considered to be reliable, however no warranty is made to their accuracy. Mr. Reyes is not an investment advisor and cannot make recommendations to you to buy or sell specific securities. Please consult your own advisor before acting on any of the information in this document or any other document received from Rainmaker Investor, LLC and its affiliates. Mr. Reyes and/or his employees may have a financial interest in securities or derivatives described This publication is protected by U.S. and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. This publication is a proprietary document and intended strictly for the use of subscribers. No additional license is granted to any subscriber to copy, reproduce, distribute or download without written consent of Rainmaker Report LLC. Violators will be prosecuted. Investors should verify all claims and perform due diligence on any strategy or investment before investing. Investing in derivative securities including futures and options are speculative in nature and carry substantial risk.
7 ©Rainmaker Report, LLC | All rights reserved | Do Not Duplicate
www.rainmakerinvestor.com
@sleevesrolled
