Earnings Review July 22, 2014
Kiatnakin Bank
Buy (15E TP Bt55.00)
2Q14 NP below our estimate and the street
Price Bt46.00
We maintain BUY for KKP and the 15E target price of Bt55/share for an implied target P/BV of 1.17x. Although we expect KKP to face a challenging operating environment in 2H14, we see improving sentiment vs. 1H14 and a healthier outlook for 2015E on better economic and capital market conditions. Moreover, the inexpensive 14-15E valuation (with P/BV of ~1x) should limit downside risk. Facts and Figures 2Q14 NP missed both our estimate and the street: KKP’s 2Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt601mn (-51% YoY, -14% QoQ) was below our forecast (Bt803mn) by 25% and the street estimate (Bt867mn) by 31%. 1H14 NP of Bt1.3bn (-46% YoY) 36% of FY14E NP forecast: We will revisit KKP’s earnings after the analyst meeting today. A downgrade is possible, mainly on a higher loss on the sale of repossessed cars. Analysis 2Q14 NP disappointing, mainly on higher loss on sale of repossessed cars: The disappointing NP in 2Q14 was due largely to 1) a higher-than-expected loss on the sale of repossessed cars (at Bt497mn in 2Q14 vs. Bt412mn in 1Q14) resulting from the NPL management plan to accelerate the repossession process; and 2) the booking of a loss of Bt106mn from the revaluation of foreclosed assets (mainly from the distressed asset business) vs. the loss of Bt15mn in 1Q14 and the gain of Bt50mn in 2Q13 (volatile in each quarter). 2Q14 NP down 51% YoY: The drop in NP YoY was due mainly to weaker income related to the capital market, particularly in its investment business unit as the SET’s average daily turnover dropped by 47% YoY to Bt40.8bn in 2Q14 vs. Bt58.5bn in 2Q13. Note that KKP had lower gain on investment of Bt60mn in 2Q14 vs. the huge gain of Bt209mn in 2Q13. 2Q14 NP down 14% QoQ: The weaker NP QoQ came mainly from 1) a higher loss on the revaluation of foreclosed assets and a higher loss on repossessed cars as mentioned earlier; 2) lower interest income from investment in loans QoQ to Bt80mn from Bt130mn (volatile in each quarter); 3) lower gain from the sale of foreclosed assets QoQ (from Bt137mn to Bt57mn); and 4) a loan contraction by 1.8% and weaker NIM QoQ. NPLs hiked QoQ on qualitative NPL assessment: NPLs hiked by Bt2.5bn or 30% QoQ to 5.6% from 4.2%. The hike in NPLs came mainly from the bank’s own qualitative NPL classification of real estate clients, followed by the used car segment. Meanwhile, the reserve-to-NPL ratio dropped QoQ to 69% from 91% and the reserve to the BoT’s required reserve declined QoQ to 131% from 159% in 1Q14. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btmn) Provision (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt)
2012 2,931 1,555 3,392 4.07 13.7% 39.51 2.50
2013 5,058 2,240 4,418 5.27 29.3% 41.66 2.65
2014E 5,353 2,552 3,607 4.30 -18.4% 43.35 2.60
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Div yield (%) ROE (%)
2012 11.29 1.16 5.43 12.1%
2013 8.73 1.06 5.76 13.0%
2014E 10.70 1.06 5.65 10.1%
2015E 5,582 2,307 5,136 6.12 42.4% 47.18 2.80 2015E 7.51 0.97 6.09 13.5%
2016E 6,150 2,498 5,902 7.04 14.9% 51.74 2.90 2016E 6.54 0.89 6.30 14.2%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
Stock Performance (%) 1M Absolute Relative to SET
3M
12M
1.09
2.79
0.00
-3.50
-4.95
-5.48
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
KKP.BK/KKP TB
Sector
Banking
Paid-up Shares (m)
840.45
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
39.00/1,211.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
44.00/32.51
52 week High / Low (Bt)
51.25/34.25
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
2,280.00
NVDR (%)
5.53
Estimated free float (%)
76.79
Beta
1.22
URL
www.kiatnakin.co.th
Major Shareholders (07/05/2014) Credit Suisse Ag, Hong Kong Branch
8.53 %
Thai NVDR Co., Ltd.
5.25 %
Nortrust Nominees Limited-Ntgs
4.46 %
FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
4.570
5.605
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
-5.9%
9.2%
Company Profile Kiatnakin-Phatra Financial Group consists of commercial banking business and capital market business. Commercial banking business operated by Kiatnakin Bank Public Company Limited, and capital market business managed by Phatra Capital Public Company Limited, Phatra Securities Public Company Limited, KKTRADE Securities Co., Ltd., and Phatra Asset Management Company Limited. CGR 2013
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872 page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 2Q14 Earnings Review Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended December
2Q13
1Q14
2Q14 % YoY % QoQ
1H13
1H14 % YoY
2014E % YoY % 1H to 14E
Net Interest Income
2,198
2,183
2,069
-6%
-5%
4,103
4,252
4%
8,982
8%
47%
Non Interest Income
1,777
811
534
-70%
-34%
3,733
1,345
-64%
4,266
-31%
32%
Operating Income
3,975
2,994
2,603
-35%
-13%
7,836
5,597
-29% 13,248
-9%
42%
Operating Expenses
1,718
1,514
1,509
-12%
0%
3,540
3,022
-15%
6,552
-5%
46%
747
777
327
-56%
-58%
1,343
1,104
-18%
2,552
14%
43% 31%
Provision for loan loss (Reversal) Taxes expenses (Reversal)
162
-39%
NM
541
161
-70%
518
-46%
Net Profit
1,237
264
700
601
-51%
-14%
2,399
1,301
-46%
3,607
-18%
36%
PPOP-after tax
1,624
1,534
1,320
-19%
-14%
2,490
2,854
15%
5,353
6%
53%
EPS (Bt)
1.48
0.83
0.72
-52%
-14%
2.88
1.55
-46%
4.30
-18%
36%
Key Statistics & Ratios
2Q13
1Q14
2Q14
1H13
1H14
2014E
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
6,362
8,282
10,791
6,362
10,791
9,104
Gross NPLs/Loans
3.5%
4.2%
5.6%
3.5%
5.6%
4.4%
110.9%
91.2%
68.8%
110.9%
68.8%
97.8%
Tier I/Risk Asset
13.3%
12.8%
13.3%
13.3%
13.3%
13.0%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
14.1%
13.3%
13.7%
14.1%
13.7%
13.6%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
(1)
Loan to Deposit Ratio
120.0% 143.1% 133.1%
120.0% 133.1%
136.4%
Loan to Deposit & ST borrowing
109.2% 139.6% 133.1%
109.2% 133.1%
133.5%
Provision to loans
1.65%
1.58%
0.68%
1.50%
1.13%
1.25%
C ost to Income
43.2%
50.6%
58.0%
45.2%
54.0%
49.5%
Non-interest Income/Total Income
44.7%
27.1%
20.5%
47.6%
24.0%
32.2%
Net Interest Margin
3.87%
3.73%
3.47%
3.66%
3.60%
3.72%
Interest Spread
4.02%
3.65%
3.48%
3.88%
3.57%
3.68%
Tax rate
17.5%
-0.1%
21.1%
18.3%
10.5%
12.5%
Loan growth YoY
18.5%
12.1%
6.3%
18.5%
6.3%
7.3%
3.5%
3.6%
-1.8%
3.5%
-1.8%
Loan growth QoQ
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: KKP’s PER Band
Figure 3: KKP’s PBV Band
(X)
(X) 1.8
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jul-14
Feb-14
Apr-13
Sep-13
Nov-12
Jan-12
-2S.D.
Jan-07
Jul-14
Feb-14
Apr-13
Sep-13
Nov-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Aug-11
Oct-10
Mar-11
May-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Nov-07
0.2
Jan-07
0 Jun-07
0.4
Jun-12
-2 S.D.
2
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
Aug-11
0.6
Apr-08
4
0.8
Oct-10
-1 S.D.
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.0
Mar-11
6
+1 S.D.
May-10
Avg
Jul-09
1.2
8
+2 S.D.
Nov-07
10
1.4
+1 S.D.
Dec-09
12
+3 S.D.
Feb-09
1.6
+2 S.D.
Jun-07
14
Sep-08
16
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 3
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.