Earnings Review

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Earnings Review July 22, 2014

Kiatnakin Bank

Buy (15E TP Bt55.00)

2Q14 NP below our estimate and the street

Price Bt46.00

We maintain BUY for KKP and the 15E target price of Bt55/share for an implied target P/BV of 1.17x. Although we expect KKP to face a challenging operating environment in 2H14, we see improving sentiment vs. 1H14 and a healthier outlook for 2015E on better economic and capital market conditions. Moreover, the inexpensive 14-15E valuation (with P/BV of ~1x) should limit downside risk. Facts and Figures  2Q14 NP missed both our estimate and the street: KKP’s 2Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt601mn (-51% YoY, -14% QoQ) was below our forecast (Bt803mn) by 25% and the street estimate (Bt867mn) by 31%.  1H14 NP of Bt1.3bn (-46% YoY) 36% of FY14E NP forecast: We will revisit KKP’s earnings after the analyst meeting today. A downgrade is possible, mainly on a higher loss on the sale of repossessed cars. Analysis  2Q14 NP disappointing, mainly on higher loss on sale of repossessed cars: The disappointing NP in 2Q14 was due largely to 1) a higher-than-expected loss on the sale of repossessed cars (at Bt497mn in 2Q14 vs. Bt412mn in 1Q14) resulting from the NPL management plan to accelerate the repossession process; and 2) the booking of a loss of Bt106mn from the revaluation of foreclosed assets (mainly from the distressed asset business) vs. the loss of Bt15mn in 1Q14 and the gain of Bt50mn in 2Q13 (volatile in each quarter).  2Q14 NP down 51% YoY: The drop in NP YoY was due mainly to weaker income related to the capital market, particularly in its investment business unit as the SET’s average daily turnover dropped by 47% YoY to Bt40.8bn in 2Q14 vs. Bt58.5bn in 2Q13. Note that KKP had lower gain on investment of Bt60mn in 2Q14 vs. the huge gain of Bt209mn in 2Q13.  2Q14 NP down 14% QoQ: The weaker NP QoQ came mainly from 1) a higher loss on the revaluation of foreclosed assets and a higher loss on repossessed cars as mentioned earlier; 2) lower interest income from investment in loans QoQ to Bt80mn from Bt130mn (volatile in each quarter); 3) lower gain from the sale of foreclosed assets QoQ (from Bt137mn to Bt57mn); and 4) a loan contraction by 1.8% and weaker NIM QoQ.  NPLs hiked QoQ on qualitative NPL assessment: NPLs hiked by Bt2.5bn or 30% QoQ to 5.6% from 4.2%. The hike in NPLs came mainly from the bank’s own qualitative NPL classification of real estate clients, followed by the used car segment. Meanwhile, the reserve-to-NPL ratio dropped QoQ to 69% from 91% and the reserve to the BoT’s required reserve declined QoQ to 131% from 159% in 1Q14. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btmn) Provision (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt)

2012 2,931 1,555 3,392 4.07 13.7% 39.51 2.50

2013 5,058 2,240 4,418 5.27 29.3% 41.66 2.65

2014E 5,353 2,552 3,607 4.30 -18.4% 43.35 2.60

FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Div yield (%) ROE (%)

2012 11.29 1.16 5.43 12.1%

2013 8.73 1.06 5.76 13.0%

2014E 10.70 1.06 5.65 10.1%

2015E 5,582 2,307 5,136 6.12 42.4% 47.18 2.80 2015E 7.51 0.97 6.09 13.5%

2016E 6,150 2,498 5,902 7.04 14.9% 51.74 2.90 2016E 6.54 0.89 6.30 14.2%

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

Stock Performance (%) 1M Absolute Relative to SET

3M

12M

1.09

2.79

0.00

-3.50

-4.95

-5.48

Share data Reuters / Bloomberg

KKP.BK/KKP TB

Sector

Banking

Paid-up Shares (m)

840.45

Par (Bt)

10.00

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)

39.00/1,211.00

Foreign limit / actual (%)

44.00/32.51

52 week High / Low (Bt)

51.25/34.25

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)

2,280.00

NVDR (%)

5.53

Estimated free float (%)

76.79

Beta

1.22

URL

www.kiatnakin.co.th

Major Shareholders (07/05/2014) Credit Suisse Ag, Hong Kong Branch

8.53 %

Thai NVDR Co., Ltd.

5.25 %

Nortrust Nominees Limited-Ntgs

4.46 %

FY14

FY15

Consensus EPS (Bt)

4.570

5.605

KT ZMICO vs. consensus

-5.9%

9.2%

Company Profile Kiatnakin-Phatra Financial Group consists of commercial banking business and capital market business. Commercial banking business operated by Kiatnakin Bank Public Company Limited, and capital market business managed by Phatra Capital Public Company Limited, Phatra Securities Public Company Limited, KKTRADE Securities Co., Ltd., and Phatra Asset Management Company Limited. CGR 2013

Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872 page 1 of 3

Figure 1: 2Q14 Earnings Review Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended December

2Q13

1Q14

2Q14 % YoY % QoQ

1H13

1H14 % YoY

2014E % YoY % 1H to 14E

Net Interest Income

2,198

2,183

2,069

-6%

-5%

4,103

4,252

4%

8,982

8%

47%

Non Interest Income

1,777

811

534

-70%

-34%

3,733

1,345

-64%

4,266

-31%

32%

Operating Income

3,975

2,994

2,603

-35%

-13%

7,836

5,597

-29% 13,248

-9%

42%

Operating Expenses

1,718

1,514

1,509

-12%

0%

3,540

3,022

-15%

6,552

-5%

46%

747

777

327

-56%

-58%

1,343

1,104

-18%

2,552

14%

43% 31%

Provision for loan loss (Reversal) Taxes expenses (Reversal)

162

-39%

NM

541

161

-70%

518

-46%

Net Profit

1,237

264

700

601

-51%

-14%

2,399

1,301

-46%

3,607

-18%

36%

PPOP-after tax

1,624

1,534

1,320

-19%

-14%

2,490

2,854

15%

5,353

6%

53%

EPS (Bt)

1.48

0.83

0.72

-52%

-14%

2.88

1.55

-46%

4.30

-18%

36%

Key Statistics & Ratios

2Q13

1Q14

2Q14

1H13

1H14

2014E

Gross NPLs (Btmn)

6,362

8,282

10,791

6,362

10,791

9,104

Gross NPLs/Loans

3.5%

4.2%

5.6%

3.5%

5.6%

4.4%

110.9%

91.2%

68.8%

110.9%

68.8%

97.8%

Tier I/Risk Asset

13.3%

12.8%

13.3%

13.3%

13.3%

13.0%

C apital Adequacy Ratio

14.1%

13.3%

13.7%

14.1%

13.7%

13.6%

Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs

(1)

Loan to Deposit Ratio

120.0% 143.1% 133.1%

120.0% 133.1%

136.4%

Loan to Deposit & ST borrowing

109.2% 139.6% 133.1%

109.2% 133.1%

133.5%

Provision to loans

1.65%

1.58%

0.68%

1.50%

1.13%

1.25%

C ost to Income

43.2%

50.6%

58.0%

45.2%

54.0%

49.5%

Non-interest Income/Total Income

44.7%

27.1%

20.5%

47.6%

24.0%

32.2%

Net Interest Margin

3.87%

3.73%

3.47%

3.66%

3.60%

3.72%

Interest Spread

4.02%

3.65%

3.48%

3.88%

3.57%

3.68%

Tax rate

17.5%

-0.1%

21.1%

18.3%

10.5%

12.5%

Loan growth YoY

18.5%

12.1%

6.3%

18.5%

6.3%

7.3%

3.5%

3.6%

-1.8%

3.5%

-1.8%

Loan growth QoQ

Source: KT ZMICO Research

Figure 2: KKP’s PER Band

Figure 3: KKP’s PBV Band

(X)

(X) 1.8

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Jul-14

Feb-14

Apr-13

Sep-13

Nov-12

Jan-12

-2S.D.

Jan-07

Jul-14

Feb-14

Apr-13

Sep-13

Nov-12

Jan-12

Jun-12

Aug-11

Oct-10

Mar-11

May-10

Jul-09

Dec-09

Feb-09

Apr-08

Sep-08

Nov-07

0.2

Jan-07

0 Jun-07

0.4

Jun-12

-2 S.D.

2

-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.

Aug-11

0.6

Apr-08

4

0.8

Oct-10

-1 S.D.

+0.5 S.D. Avg.

1.0

Mar-11

6

+1 S.D.

May-10

Avg

Jul-09

1.2

8

+2 S.D.

Nov-07

10

1.4

+1 S.D.

Dec-09

12

+3 S.D.

Feb-09

1.6

+2 S.D.

Jun-07

14

Sep-08

16

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

page 2 of 3

DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.

KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.

SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals

The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

page 3 of 3

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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited

st

8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

rd

Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

th

nd

2

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,

Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000

Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550

Fax. (66-2) 686-1666

Fax. (66-2) 626-6111

Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600

Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100

Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,

114 Singhawat Road,

Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

Muang, Phitsanulok 65000

Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

th

Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,

A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

Telephone: (038) 813-088

Telephone: (038) 287-635

Fax. (038) 362-430

Fax. (038) 813-099

Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,

Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

Chiang Mai Branch

Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,

16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,

Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970

624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.

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