Earnings Review April 18, 2014
The Siam Commercial Bank
Trading Buy (TP Bt170.00) Price Bt163.00
1Q14 earnings beat our estimate We maintain a Trading buy rating for SCB and the 14E target price of Bt170/share (for an implied target P/BV of 2.0x). We like SCB on its superior ROE and solid noninterest income base vs. peers. Facts and Figures
1Q14 NP beat our forecast but in line with the street: SCB’s 1Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt13.1bn (flat YoY, +12% QoQ) was ahead of our forecast (Bt11.9bn) by 10% but quite in line with the street estimate of Bt12.7bn.
Analysis
Stock Performance (%) 1M
3M
12M
1Q14 net profit beat our estimate by 10%: The higherthan-expected NP was due mainly to 1) a lower-than-expected provision as we assumed the bank to set a provision at its high-end provision target (80-85 bps) for 2014E vs. the provisioning of 77bps in 1Q14; 2) higher-than-expected net premium income in its insurance business; and 3) slightly higher NIM.
Absolute
4.48
10.88
-13.76
Relative to SET
0.97
1.53
-4.88
Net premium income and NIM the bright spots in 1Q14: Despite the much lower extra income in 1Q14 and weaker income related to the capital market YoY, SCB kept its NP stable YoY. This should be thanks to the solid growth in its net insurance premium income by 20% YoY and higher NIM YoY. Note that in 1Q13, SCB booked extra dividend income of ~Bt600-700mn and a dividend from the Vayupak Fund of Bt320mn, while there was no such income in 1Q14.
Par (Bt)
1Q14 NP up 12% QoQ on lower OPEX: Meanwhile, PPOP also grew 30% YoY thanks to its efficient cost control, seasonally much lower operating expenses QoQ and the 10% growth in net premium income QoQ. Moreover, the bank’s NIM remained stable QoQ despite the rate cut in 1Q14 and was slightly ahead of our expectation by ~4 bps. This was due to efficient NIM management through the reduction of deposits by 2% QoQ amid flat loan growth QoQ.
Beta
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
37,610
48,608
62,117
64,684
70,215
Provision (Btmn)
6,630
9,396
13,641
15,123
14,622
Net Profit (Btmn)
36,273
40,220
50,233
51,586
55,732
10.67
11.83
14.78
15.18
16.40
EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%)
50%
11%
25%
3%
8%
Book value (Bt)
54.68
62.89
72.45
83.69
94.90
Dividend (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec
3.50
4.50
5.25
5.50
3,394.08 10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
553.00/17,203.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
45.81/38.21
52 week High / Low (Bt)
199.50/130.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
8,052.00
NVDR (%)
3.41
Estimated free float (%)
76.23 1.38
Major Shareholders (14/03/2014) The Crown Property Bureau
21.30 %
Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By Mfc Fund
11.58 %
Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By KTB Fund
11.58 %
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
Banking
Paid-up Shares (m)
Asset quality stable QoQ: The NPL ratio and NPL coverage ratios were quite stable QoQ at 2.1% and 148%, respectively. Its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve remained solid at 158%, which was quite in line with the sector average of 160% in 4Q13.
PPOP (Btmn)
SCB.BK/SCB TB
Sector
FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
15.538
17.455
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
-2.3%
-6%
Company Profile The Company is the commercial bank providing a full range of financial services, including corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, foreign currency operations, international trade financing, cash management, custodial services, credit and charge card services and investment banking services. CGR 2013
5.75
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
PER (X)
15.28
13.78
11.03
10.74
9.94
PBV (X)
2.98
2.59
2.25
1.95
1.72
Dividend Yield (%)
2.15
2.76
3.22
3.37
3.53
ROE (%)
21%
20%
22%
19%
18%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872 page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q14 Earnings Review Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
1Q13
4Q13
1Q14
% YoY
% QoQ
2014E
% YoY % 1Q to 14E
Net Interest Income
17,237
19,003
19,369
12%
2%
76,404
5%
Non Interest Income
12,312
12,977
11,509
-7%
-11%
50,998
1%
23%
Operating Income
29,549
31,980
30,878
4%
-3%
127,401
3%
24%
Operating Expenses
10,825
12,792
11,024
2%
-14%
49,583
5%
22%
2,518
4,245
3,207
27%
-24%
15,123
11%
21%
Provision expenses (Reversal) Tax expenses
25%
2,979
3,062
3,341
12%
9%
12,635
7%
26%
Net Profit
13,116
11,752
13,129
0%
12%
51,586
3%
25%
PPOP
15,318
12,571
16,396
7%
30%
64,684
4%
25%
3.86
3.46
3.86
0%
12%
15.18
3%
25%
EPS (Bt) Key Statistics and Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
1Q13 36,823
4Q13
1Q14
40,000
2014E
40,258
44,170
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
144.8%
150.8%
147.9%
160.6%
Tier I/Risk Assets
11.5%
12.0%
12.2%
12.7%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
16.0%
15.4%
15.6%
15.5%
Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Deposit & borrowing
96.3%
95.2%
96.9%
96.4%
89.3%
90.5%
92.1%
91.9%
Provision to loans
0.63%
0.98%
0.74%
0.83%
C ost to Income
36.6%
40.0%
35.7%
38.9%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
41.7%
40.6%
37.3%
40.0%
Net Interest Margin
3.11%
3.21%
3.21%
3.12%
Tax rate
18.4%
20.5%
20.1%
19.5%
Loan Growth YoY
18.2%
12.1%
8.8%
5.0%
Loan Growth QoQ 3.0% Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research
3.3%
-0.02%
Figure 2: Loans by segment and growth as of 1Q14 Loans by segment
% Breakdown
QoQ Growth
YoY Growth
Corporate
37%
1.9%
7.3%
SME
20%
-0.8%
11.7%
Retail
43%
-1.2%
8.8%
-Housing
28%
0.4%
12.4%
-Automobile
11%
-2.5%
1.1%
-Other loans
4%
-8.3%
7.1%
100%
-0.02%
8.8%
Total loans Source: SCB, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 4
Figure 3: SCB’s PER Band
Figure 4: SCB’s PBV Band
(X)
(X) 3.0
18
+2 S.D.
16
+2 S.D.
14
+1 S.D.
12
-0.5 S.D. Avg.
+0.5 S.D. Avg. 2.0
-1 S.D.
-1 S.D.
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
1.0
May-08
Jan-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
4
Sep-07
1.5 -2 S.D.
6
Jan-07
8
-0.5 S.D.
May-07
10
+1 S.D.
2.5
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.