Earnings Review

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Earnings Review April 18, 2014

The Siam Commercial Bank

Trading Buy (TP Bt170.00) Price Bt163.00

1Q14 earnings beat our estimate We maintain a Trading buy rating for SCB and the 14E target price of Bt170/share (for an implied target P/BV of 2.0x). We like SCB on its superior ROE and solid noninterest income base vs. peers. Facts and Figures 

1Q14 NP beat our forecast but in line with the street: SCB’s 1Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt13.1bn (flat YoY, +12% QoQ) was ahead of our forecast (Bt11.9bn) by 10% but quite in line with the street estimate of Bt12.7bn.

Analysis

Stock Performance (%) 1M

3M

12M

 1Q14 net profit beat our estimate by 10%: The higherthan-expected NP was due mainly to 1) a lower-than-expected provision as we assumed the bank to set a provision at its high-end provision target (80-85 bps) for 2014E vs. the provisioning of 77bps in 1Q14; 2) higher-than-expected net premium income in its insurance business; and 3) slightly higher NIM.

Absolute

4.48

10.88

-13.76

Relative to SET

0.97

1.53

-4.88

 Net premium income and NIM the bright spots in 1Q14: Despite the much lower extra income in 1Q14 and weaker income related to the capital market YoY, SCB kept its NP stable YoY. This should be thanks to the solid growth in its net insurance premium income by 20% YoY and higher NIM YoY. Note that in 1Q13, SCB booked extra dividend income of ~Bt600-700mn and a dividend from the Vayupak Fund of Bt320mn, while there was no such income in 1Q14.

Par (Bt)

 1Q14 NP up 12% QoQ on lower OPEX: Meanwhile, PPOP also grew 30% YoY thanks to its efficient cost control, seasonally much lower operating expenses QoQ and the 10% growth in net premium income QoQ. Moreover, the bank’s NIM remained stable QoQ despite the rate cut in 1Q14 and was slightly ahead of our expectation by ~4 bps. This was due to efficient NIM management through the reduction of deposits by 2% QoQ amid flat loan growth QoQ.

Beta

Share data Reuters / Bloomberg

2011

2012

2013

2014E

2015E

37,610

48,608

62,117

64,684

70,215

Provision (Btmn)

6,630

9,396

13,641

15,123

14,622

Net Profit (Btmn)

36,273

40,220

50,233

51,586

55,732

10.67

11.83

14.78

15.18

16.40

EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%)

50%

11%

25%

3%

8%

Book value (Bt)

54.68

62.89

72.45

83.69

94.90

Dividend (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec

3.50

4.50

5.25

5.50

3,394.08 10.00

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)

553.00/17,203.00

Foreign limit / actual (%)

45.81/38.21

52 week High / Low (Bt)

199.50/130.50

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)

8,052.00

NVDR (%)

3.41

Estimated free float (%)

76.23 1.38

Major Shareholders (14/03/2014) The Crown Property Bureau

21.30 %

Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By Mfc Fund

11.58 %

Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By KTB Fund

11.58 %

Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec

Banking

Paid-up Shares (m)

 Asset quality stable QoQ: The NPL ratio and NPL coverage ratios were quite stable QoQ at 2.1% and 148%, respectively. Its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve remained solid at 158%, which was quite in line with the sector average of 160% in 4Q13.

PPOP (Btmn)

SCB.BK/SCB TB

Sector

FY14

FY15

Consensus EPS (Bt)

15.538

17.455

KT ZMICO vs. consensus

-2.3%

-6%

Company Profile The Company is the commercial bank providing a full range of financial services, including corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, foreign currency operations, international trade financing, cash management, custodial services, credit and charge card services and investment banking services. CGR 2013

5.75

2011

2012

2013

2014E

2015E

PER (X)

15.28

13.78

11.03

10.74

9.94

PBV (X)

2.98

2.59

2.25

1.95

1.72

Dividend Yield (%)

2.15

2.76

3.22

3.37

3.53

ROE (%)

21%

20%

22%

19%

18%

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872 page 1 of 4

Figure 1: 1Q14 Earnings Review Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.

1Q13

4Q13

1Q14

% YoY

% QoQ

2014E

% YoY % 1Q to 14E

Net Interest Income

17,237

19,003

19,369

12%

2%

76,404

5%

Non Interest Income

12,312

12,977

11,509

-7%

-11%

50,998

1%

23%

Operating Income

29,549

31,980

30,878

4%

-3%

127,401

3%

24%

Operating Expenses

10,825

12,792

11,024

2%

-14%

49,583

5%

22%

2,518

4,245

3,207

27%

-24%

15,123

11%

21%

Provision expenses (Reversal) Tax expenses

25%

2,979

3,062

3,341

12%

9%

12,635

7%

26%

Net Profit

13,116

11,752

13,129

0%

12%

51,586

3%

25%

PPOP

15,318

12,571

16,396

7%

30%

64,684

4%

25%

3.86

3.46

3.86

0%

12%

15.18

3%

25%

EPS (Bt) Key Statistics and Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs

1Q13 36,823

4Q13

1Q14

40,000

2014E

40,258

44,170

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.2%

144.8%

150.8%

147.9%

160.6%

Tier I/Risk Assets

11.5%

12.0%

12.2%

12.7%

C apital Adequacy Ratio

16.0%

15.4%

15.6%

15.5%

Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Deposit & borrowing

96.3%

95.2%

96.9%

96.4%

89.3%

90.5%

92.1%

91.9%

Provision to loans

0.63%

0.98%

0.74%

0.83%

C ost to Income

36.6%

40.0%

35.7%

38.9%

Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.

41.7%

40.6%

37.3%

40.0%

Net Interest Margin

3.11%

3.21%

3.21%

3.12%

Tax rate

18.4%

20.5%

20.1%

19.5%

Loan Growth YoY

18.2%

12.1%

8.8%

5.0%

Loan Growth QoQ 3.0% Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research

3.3%

-0.02%

Figure 2: Loans by segment and growth as of 1Q14 Loans by segment

% Breakdown

QoQ Growth

YoY Growth

Corporate

37%

1.9%

7.3%

SME

20%

-0.8%

11.7%

Retail

43%

-1.2%

8.8%

-Housing

28%

0.4%

12.4%

-Automobile

11%

-2.5%

1.1%

-Other loans

4%

-8.3%

7.1%

100%

-0.02%

8.8%

Total loans Source: SCB, KT ZMICO Research

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

page 2 of 4

Figure 3: SCB’s PER Band

Figure 4: SCB’s PBV Band

(X)

(X) 3.0

18

+2 S.D.

16

+2 S.D.

14

+1 S.D.

12

-0.5 S.D. Avg.

+0.5 S.D. Avg. 2.0

-1 S.D.

-1 S.D.

-2 S.D.

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Jan-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-08

Jan-08

1.0

May-08

Jan-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-08

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-07

Jan-07

May-07

4

Sep-07

1.5 -2 S.D.

6

Jan-07

8

-0.5 S.D.

May-07

10

+1 S.D.

2.5

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

page 3 of 4

DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.

KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.

SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals

The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

page 4 of 4

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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited

st

8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

rd

Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

th

nd

2

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,

Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000

Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550

Fax. (66-2) 686-1666

Fax. (66-2) 626-6111

Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600

Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100

Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,

114 Singhawat Road,

Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

Muang, Phitsanulok 65000

Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

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Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,

A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

Telephone: (038) 813-088

Telephone: (038) 287-635

Fax. (038) 362-430

Fax. (038) 813-099

Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,

Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

Chiang Mai Branch

Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,

16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,

Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970

624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.

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