EU PASSENGER CARS CO2 EMISSION
EU PASSENGER CARS CO2 EMISSION DATA SOURCE: EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY, REGULATION 443/2009
Tianyun Gao
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pain point • Current CO2 emission of new passenger cars has to be reduced significantly by 2020 to meet new European standard. 2014: 140g/km. 2020 standard: 95g/km.
Context • Regulation: Strengthen management of high CO2 emission cars • Fiscal measure: Encourage new technologies to reduce CO2 emission, encourage production and purchasing of low emission cars
Analysis • Target high CO2 emission groups (country, vehicle type, etc.) • Identify positive factors contributed to low CO2 emission
Analysis Framework • Analyze main factors affecting CO2 emission • Compare countries • Compare car manufacturers
TO REACH 2020 CO2 EMISSION TARGET IS VERY CHALLENGING CO2 EMISSION TARGET OF NEW PASSENGER CARS New EU standard (Jan,2014):The passenger car standards are 95 g/km of CO2, phasing in for 95% of vehicles in 2020 with 100% compliance in 2021. This means a fuel consumption of around 4.1l/100km of petrol or 3.6l/100km of diesel CURRENT SITUATION • Average CO2 emission from 2010 to 2014: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 124g/km 120g/km 116g/km 115g/km 114g/km • Annual decreasing rate 1%-4% • Average CO2 emission has to be reduced at least 20% in 6 years. Pain Point
Target 2020: 95 g/km
Data Source: European Environment Agency, regulation 443/2009
ABOUT REGULATION 443/2009 BACKGROUND • In order to address global climate change, by 2050 the EU wishes to cut its CO2 emissions by 80-95% compared to 1990 levels. According to the Commission, by 2050 transport emissions (excluding international maritime transport) must be cut by 54-67% compared to 1990 levels. • CO2 emissions from road transport represent approx. 20% of total EU CO2 emissions. SCOPE • Regulation 443/2009 aims to reduce CO2 emission of new passenger cars. • It requires Member States to record information for each new passenger car registered in its territory and submit to EU every year. • Data include following details for each new passenger car registered: manufacturer name, type approval number, type, variant, version, make and commercial name, specific emissions of CO2, mass of the vehicle, wheel base, track width, engine capacity, fuel type and fuel mode, etc. • The aim of this Regulation is to create incentives for the car industry to invest in new technologies Context
ABOUT REGULATION 443/2009 MEASURES • Limit value curve: Emission limits are set according to the mass of vehicle, using a limit value curve.The curve is set in such a way that the targets set for new cars fleet average emissions are achieved.The limit value curve means that heavier cars are allowed higher emission than lighter cars. • Penalty payments for excess emissions: 5 euro for the first g/km of exceedance 15 euro for the second g/km 25 euro for the third g/km 95 euro for each subsequent g/km • Super credits: Each new passenger car with emission less than 50 g CO2/km will be counted more than one: 3.5 vehicles in 2012 and 2013 2.5 in 2014 1.5 in 2015 1 from 2016 to 2019 Context
REDUCING CO2 EMISSION MUST INVOLVE ALL STAKEHOLDERS • Encourage purchasing of low emission cars (tax reduction, subsidy, etc.) • Infrastructure development to facilitate use of low emission cars such as electric cars • Discourage use of high emission cars such as luxury cars, oversize cars, etc. • Awareness of environmental impact
Government • Incentives to low emission technology • Penalty or prohibit to high emission cars • Investment in innovation
Consumer
Industry
Increase market share of low emission passenger cars Context
• Technology innovation to reduce emission
THE MAIN FACTORS AFFECTING CO2 EMISSION -- I. MASS Heavier cars generally have higher CO2 emission CO2 v.s. Mass 2014
CO2 emission decreases from 2010 to 2015, Mass v.s. CO2 correlation remains the same Linear regression CO2 v.s. Mass 2010,2014,2015 2010 2014 2015
Analysis
P.S. 2015 published data is preliminary. Final dataset may be slightly different
THE MAIN FACTORS AFFECTING CO2 EMISSION -- II. FUEL TYPE • Diesel and Petrol cars count for more than 90% of the total • Diesel cars have higher engine efficiency than petrol cars. (higher mass, lower CO2 emission
• Hydrogen & Electric car tail-pipe emission = 0 • Hybrid electric emission significantly lower than conventional Petrol and Diesel cars • Other alternative fuel types, e.g. Biodiesel, Compare different fuel types, CO2 .v.s. Mass (left:2010, right:2014) Petrol-gas, don’t have advantage in regarding to tail-pipe CO2 emission CO2 emission of different fuel types (2014)
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
Analysis
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
TARGET HIGH CO2 EMISSION GROUPS -- COUNTRIES
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
Analysis
P.S. 2015 published data is preliminary. Final dataset may be slightly different
• These 10 countries have 90% of the registered cars • Top 3 high CO2 emission: Portugal, Germany & Slovenia
TARGET HIGH CO2 EMISSION GROUPS -- MANUFACTURES
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
Analysis
• These 16 manufacturers have 90% of the registered cars • Top 5 high CO2 emission: Opel,Audi, BMW, Dacia, Daimler
Tianyun Gao
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pain point • Current CO2 emission of new passenger cars has to be reduced significantly by 2020 to meet new European standard. 2014: 140g/km. 2020 standard: 95g/km.
Context • Regulation: Strengthen management of high CO2 emission cars • Fiscal measure: Encourage new technologies to reduce CO2 emission, encourage production and purchasing of low emission cars
Analysis • Target high CO2 emission groups (country, vehicle type, etc.) • Identify positive factors contributed to low CO2 emission
Analysis Framework • Analyze main factors affecting CO2 emission • Compare countries • Compare car manufacturers
TO REACH 2020 CO2 EMISSION TARGET IS VERY CHALLENGING CO2 EMISSION TARGET OF NEW PASSENGER CARS New EU standard (Jan,2014):The passenger car standards are 95 g/km of CO2, phasing in for 95% of vehicles in 2020 with 100% compliance in 2021. This means a fuel consumption of around 4.1l/100km of petrol or 3.6l/100km of diesel CURRENT SITUATION • Average CO2 emission from 2010 to 2014: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 124g/km 120g/km 116g/km 115g/km 114g/km • Annual decreasing rate 1%-4% • Average CO2 emission has to be reduced at least 20% in 6 years. Pain Point
Target 2020: 95 g/km
Data Source: European Environment Agency, regulation 443/2009
ABOUT REGULATION 443/2009 BACKGROUND • In order to address global climate change, by 2050 the EU wishes to cut its CO2 emissions by 80-95% compared to 1990 levels. According to the Commission, by 2050 transport emissions (excluding international maritime transport) must be cut by 54-67% compared to 1990 levels. • CO2 emissions from road transport represent approx. 20% of total EU CO2 emissions. SCOPE • Regulation 443/2009 aims to reduce CO2 emission of new passenger cars. • It requires Member States to record information for each new passenger car registered in its territory and submit to EU every year. • Data include following details for each new passenger car registered: manufacturer name, type approval number, type, variant, version, make and commercial name, specific emissions of CO2, mass of the vehicle, wheel base, track width, engine capacity, fuel type and fuel mode, etc. • The aim of this Regulation is to create incentives for the car industry to invest in new technologies Context
ABOUT REGULATION 443/2009 MEASURES • Limit value curve: Emission limits are set according to the mass of vehicle, using a limit value curve.The curve is set in such a way that the targets set for new cars fleet average emissions are achieved.The limit value curve means that heavier cars are allowed higher emission than lighter cars. • Penalty payments for excess emissions: 5 euro for the first g/km of exceedance 15 euro for the second g/km 25 euro for the third g/km 95 euro for each subsequent g/km • Super credits: Each new passenger car with emission less than 50 g CO2/km will be counted more than one: 3.5 vehicles in 2012 and 2013 2.5 in 2014 1.5 in 2015 1 from 2016 to 2019 Context
REDUCING CO2 EMISSION MUST INVOLVE ALL STAKEHOLDERS • Encourage purchasing of low emission cars (tax reduction, subsidy, etc.) • Infrastructure development to facilitate use of low emission cars such as electric cars • Discourage use of high emission cars such as luxury cars, oversize cars, etc. • Awareness of environmental impact
Government • Incentives to low emission technology • Penalty or prohibit to high emission cars • Investment in innovation
Consumer
Industry
Increase market share of low emission passenger cars Context
• Technology innovation to reduce emission
THE MAIN FACTORS AFFECTING CO2 EMISSION -- I. MASS Heavier cars generally have higher CO2 emission CO2 v.s. Mass 2014
CO2 emission decreases from 2010 to 2015, Mass v.s. CO2 correlation remains the same Linear regression CO2 v.s. Mass 2010,2014,2015 2010 2014 2015
Analysis
P.S. 2015 published data is preliminary. Final dataset may be slightly different
THE MAIN FACTORS AFFECTING CO2 EMISSION -- II. FUEL TYPE • Diesel and Petrol cars count for more than 90% of the total • Diesel cars have higher engine efficiency than petrol cars. (higher mass, lower CO2 emission
• Hydrogen & Electric car tail-pipe emission = 0 • Hybrid electric emission significantly lower than conventional Petrol and Diesel cars • Other alternative fuel types, e.g. Biodiesel, Compare different fuel types, CO2 .v.s. Mass (left:2010, right:2014) Petrol-gas, don’t have advantage in regarding to tail-pipe CO2 emission CO2 emission of different fuel types (2014)
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
Analysis
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
TARGET HIGH CO2 EMISSION GROUPS -- COUNTRIES
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
Analysis
P.S. 2015 published data is preliminary. Final dataset may be slightly different
• These 10 countries have 90% of the registered cars • Top 3 high CO2 emission: Portugal, Germany & Slovenia
TARGET HIGH CO2 EMISSION GROUPS -- MANUFACTURES
Size of circles indicate registration numbers
Analysis
• These 16 manufacturers have 90% of the registered cars • Top 5 high CO2 emission: Opel,Audi, BMW, Dacia, Daimler
