EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Hybrid Trucks and Buses - Navigant Research
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Hybrid Trucks and Buses Medium and Heavy Duty Commercial Truck Markets for Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Drives NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger research report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at [email protected] Published 2Q 2010
Dave Hurst Industry Analyst Clint Wheelock Managing Director
Hybrid Trucks and Buses
Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Trucks are classified based on the gross vehicle weight (GVW) of their chassis. In the United States, these weights are separated into classes 1 through 8, from light duty to heavy duty. Medium-duty (MD) trucks fall into classes 2b to 6 (8,501 to 26,000 pounds GVW), which roughly match the European weight classes N1 and N2. Heavy-duty (HD) trucks are classes 7 and 8 (26,000 pounds or more) and European class N3. These distinctions are important because they help ensure that the vehicles can carry their required loads. Within each class, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) build trucks of several different formats, including stripped chassis, cab and chassis, and open cab and chassis. Once OEMs manufacture the chassis, other companies fit van bodies or additional equipment on the structure, thereby creating step vans, refuse trucks, shuttle buses, ambulances, or specialized power take-off (PTO) equipment trucks. In PTO trucks, power is directed from the engine to the truck’s particular equipment, which can be aerial lifts, cranes, diggers, or other apparatus. This equipment then draws its power from the engine. There are essentially five types of hybrid systems that can be implemented on board MD and HD vehicles:
Hybrid electric: Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) generate all their power on board, and deliver that power to the wheels either in parallel with an internal combustion engine (ICE) or in serial with no connection between the ICE and the wheels. Plug-in hybrid electric: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) systems get some of their power, either parallel or serial, from an off-vehicle source. Battery electric: Battery electric vehicle (BEV) systems get all of their power from off-vehicle sources, and they store the power on the vehicle. Therefore, these vehicles require large batteries and recharging time, but they have zero emissions. Mild electric power take-off (EPTO) hybrids: These systems do not provide any power to the wheels from electricity; rather, they power all PTO equipment via battery storage. Therefore these vehicles do not require the ICE to idle for extended periods during equipment usage. Hydraulic hybrid: These systems generate power on board the vehicle by utilizing hydraulic pressure accumulated during braking. This pressure is used to provide power for the hydraulic motors that move the wheels.
MD delivery vehicles are currently one of the biggest markets for hybrid trucks, with Eaton Corp. holding the largest market share of hybrid systems. Chassis OEMs typically partner with a third-party supplier who provides and installs the hybrid components (electric motor, battery, battery management system, or hydraulics). Within the delivery vehicle market, Federal Express and UPS both have fleets of more than 200 MD hybrid vans. Utility trucks, such as diggers or aerial lifts, equipped with EPTO hybrid technology, can save substantial fuel because they do not need to idle the engine while crews work at a jobsite. These systems also often include the ability to draw power from an outside source in addition to the engine (an example would be Terex Utilities’ HyPower hybrid system), which helps reduce the idle time. Systems like these tend to save between 1,000 and 1,500 gallons of diesel per year, depending on how they are integrated into the vehicle and
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses what kind of equipment they are powering. Because they have the physical space to add the equipment, HD transit buses have typically been test beds for hybrid systems. Additionally, transit companies are more willing to test such innovative technologies because they receive government funding to explore such solutions. As a result, Pike Research forecasts that there will be 9,052 hybrid buses operating in the U.S. in 2010. As with MD trucks, hybrid HD trucks recover the majority of their battery energy through regenerative braking. Because over-the-road (OTR) trucks do a lot of freeway driving, they do not have the chance to recapture that energy via braking and rely on the engine to recharge the batteries. Therefore HD OTR trucks, such as semi trucks, are often considered inappropriate candidates for hybrid systems because they need to maintain consistent high speeds and travel long distances. Currently, Peterbilt is the only manufacturer in the U.S. to market a hybrid OTR truck. However, it is common for OTR truck drivers to park and idle their trucks during long distance travel for several hours or overnight in order to maintain cab comfort. Alternative Power Units (APUs) power the cab off of batteries (or other small generators) instead of using the large truck engine. This allows the large truck engine to be turned off, thereby saving perhaps as much as 1,000 gallons of fuel per year. Chart 1.1
Petroleum Consumption by Transportation Sector, United States
(Source: Rocky Mountain Institute)
Demand for hybrid MD and HD trucks is dependent on multiple factors, like the overall economics of specific industries; increased regulations on emissions; and the availability of other alternative fuels. Package delivery has been a key focus for hybrid truck designs because the demand for these vehicles has been strong, as fleets seek to reduce their fuel consumption and emissions. HEV and plug-in electric transit bus builders have been focusing on the U.S. market in the last couple of years because of an increased spending on transit buses, and the popular alternative of natural gas buses remains expensive to install stations or a difficult fuel to find in many parts of the country.
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses Overall, the demand for hybrid MD and HD trucks will be strong in Asia Pacific and North America. China and the U.S. will be the main sources of the demand; though by 2015, demand for MD hybrids in China is likely to outpace demand in the U.S. (CAGR of 107% and 38%, respectively). Within the HD truck market, the plug-in hybrid is not likely to see strong growth as BEV and HEV numbers grow. Fleets that need to cover expansive territory while carrying HD loads will likely adopt HEV technology to help contain the costs of the battery. Fleets that have a set delivery or commuter route will likely gravitate toward BEV technology. Pike Research anticipates that the HD plug-in hybrid truck market will grow to 2,213 vehicles globally in 2015, but this market will be dwarfed by the HEV HD truck market, which will see its numbers grow to 13,938 vehicles, and by BEV trucks, which will reach 4,354 vehicles in 2015. Worldwide, the market for hybrid and plug-in MD and HD vehicles is expected to grow to 103,940 vehicles by 2015. Chart 1.2
HEV/PHEV/BEV MD and HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
(Source: Pike Research)
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses
Section 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Market Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Definitions...................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Overview by Truck Types.............................................................................................................. 5 2.2.1 Medium-Duty Delivery Trucks ................................................................................................. 5 2.2.2 Medium-Duty Trucks for Nondelivery Applications ................................................................. 6 2.2.3 Heavy-Duty Trucks .................................................................................................................. 7 2.2.4 Over-the-Road Heavy-Duty Trucks ......................................................................................... 8 2.2.5 Buses....................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Industry Impact on Hybrid Truck Market ..................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Economic Growth of Specific Industries ................................................................................ 11 2.4 Purchase Costs of Hybrid Systems............................................................................................. 11 2.4.1 Recovery of Cost Premiums.................................................................................................. 11 2.5 Impact on the Market from Alternative Fuel Vehicles ................................................................. 12 2.5.1 Biodiesel ................................................................................................................................ 12 2.5.2 Natural Gas Buses and Trucks ............................................................................................. 13 2.5.3 Fuel Cell Buses and Trucks .................................................................................................. 13 2.6 Service and Maintenance Issues with Hybrid Trucks ................................................................. 13 Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Technology Issues .................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Hybrid Truck Drivetrains .............................................................................................................. 14 3.1.1 Parallel Hybrid Electric Design .............................................................................................. 14 3.1.2 Series Hybrids ....................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.3 Mild EPTO Hybrids ................................................................................................................ 15 3.2 Auxiliary Power Units in Heavy-Duty Classes 7 and 8................................................................ 15 3.3 Plug-in Hybrids and Battery Electric Trucks ................................................................................ 16 3.4 Recharging Infrastructure............................................................................................................ 17 3.4.1 Electric Utilities and Smart Grid Technologies ...................................................................... 17 3.5 Voltage and Current Conversion ................................................................................................. 18 3.6 Battery Technology ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.6.1 Lead-Acid Batteries ............................................................................................................... 18 3.6.2 Nickel-Metal Hydride Batteries .............................................................................................. 18 3.6.3 Lithium-Ion Batteries ............................................................................................................. 18 3.6.4 Lithium-Titanate Batteries ..................................................................................................... 19 3.7 Ultracapacitors ............................................................................................................................ 19 3.8 Regenerative Braking .................................................................................................................. 19 3.9 Hydraulic Hybrid Systems ........................................................................................................... 19 3.10 Emissions Control Equipment ..................................................................................................... 20 Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 22 Demand Drivers ......................................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Fuel Prices .................................................................................................................................. 22 4.2 “No Idle” Rules ............................................................................................................................ 23 4.3 Greening of Fleets ....................................................................................................................... 23 4.4 Government Emissions Regulations ........................................................................................... 24 4.4.1 United States ......................................................................................................................... 25 4.4.1.1 EPA Emissions Limitations ........................................................................................... 25
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses 4.4.2 Canada .................................................................................................................................. 25 4.4.3 South America ....................................................................................................................... 25 4.4.4 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 25 4.4.5 Japan ..................................................................................................................................... 26 4.4.6 China ..................................................................................................................................... 26 4.4.7 Other Markets ........................................................................................................................ 26 4.5 Government Incentives ............................................................................................................... 26 4.5.1 United States ......................................................................................................................... 26 4.5.2 Canada .................................................................................................................................. 26 4.5.3 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 26 4.5.4 Japan ..................................................................................................................................... 27 4.5.5 China ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 28 Key Industry Players................................................................................................................................. 28 5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers.............................................................................................. 28 5.1.1 Altec Industries ...................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.2 Azure Dynamics .................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.3 Beiqi Foton Motor Co. Ltd. .................................................................................................... 28 5.1.4 Crane Carrier Company ........................................................................................................ 28 5.1.5 Daimler Trucks/Freightliner ................................................................................................... 28 5.1.6 Dueco/Odyne......................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.7 Electric Vehicles International ............................................................................................... 29 5.1.8 Ford Motor Co. ...................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.9 General Motors ...................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.10 Gillig Corp. ........................................................................................................................ 30 5.1.11 Hyundai ............................................................................................................................. 30 5.1.12 Iveco .................................................................................................................................. 30 5.1.13 MAN SE ............................................................................................................................ 30 5.1.14 Mitsubishi Fuso Truck ....................................................................................................... 30 5.1.15 Navistar/International Truck and Engine Corp. ................................................................. 30 5.1.16 New Flyer Bus ................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.17 Nissan and Renault ........................................................................................................... 31 5.1.18 Orion Bus .......................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.19 Proterra ............................................................................................................................. 31 5.1.20 PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF .................................................................................... 31 5.1.21 Toyota Motor Corp./Hino ................................................................................................... 31 5.1.22 Terex Utilities .................................................................................................................... 32 5.1.23 Volvo Trucks ..................................................................................................................... 32 5.1.24 Zero Truck ......................................................................................................................... 32 5.2 Key Suppliers .............................................................................................................................. 32 5.2.1 A123 Systems ....................................................................................................................... 32 5.2.2 ArvinMeritor ........................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.3 BAE Systems......................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.4 Bosch Rexroth AG ................................................................................................................. 33 5.2.5 Cobasys................................................................................................................................. 33 5.2.6 Dow Kokam Inc. .................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.7 Eaton Corp. ........................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.8 Enova Systems Inc. ............................................................................................................... 34 5.2.9 ISE Corp. ............................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.10 Johnson Controls-Saft ...................................................................................................... 35 5.2.11 LG Chemical/Compact Power ........................................................................................... 35 5.2.12 Maxwell Technologies ....................................................................................................... 35 5.2.13 Panasonic EV Energy ....................................................................................................... 35
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses 5.2.14 Siemens ............................................................................................................................ 35 5.2.15 UQM Technologies ........................................................................................................... 35 5.2.16 Valence Energy Storage Solutions ................................................................................... 36 5.2.17 ZF Friedrichshafen AG ...................................................................................................... 36 Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 37 Market Forecasts....................................................................................................................................... 37 6.1 Commercial Vehicle Registrations .............................................................................................. 37 6.1.1 North America........................................................................................................................ 37 6.1.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 37 6.1.3 Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 38 6.2 Hybrid Medium-Duty Truck Sales ............................................................................................... 38 6.2.1 North America........................................................................................................................ 39 6.2.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 40 6.2.3 Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 41 6.3 Hybrid Heavy-Duty Truck Sales .................................................................................................. 42 6.4 United States Trucks by Vehicle Type ........................................................................................ 43 6.5 Plug-in Hybrid Medium-Duty Truck Sales ................................................................................... 44 6.6 Plug-in Hybrid Heavy-Duty Truck Sales ...................................................................................... 45 6.7 Battery Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales ................................................................................. 46 6.8 Battery Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Sales .................................................................................... 47 6.9 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 48 Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 49 Company Directory ................................................................................................................................... 49 Section 8 .................................................................................................................................................... 57 Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 57 Section 9 .................................................................................................................................................... 60 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 60 Section 10 .................................................................................................................................................. 63 Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 63 Section 11 .................................................................................................................................................. 64 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 64 Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 64 Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 65
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses
Section 10 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Chart 1.2 Chart 2.1 Chart 3.1 Chart 4.1 Chart 4.2 Chart 6.1 Chart 6.2 Chart 6.3 Chart 6.4 Chart 6.5 Chart 6.6 Chart 6.7 Chart 6.8 Chart 6.9 Chart 6.10 Chart 6.11
Petroleum Consumption by Transportation Sector, United States ......................................... 2 HEV/PHEV/BEV MD and HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015................................. 3 Petroleum Consumption by Sector, Total and Transportation, United States ........................ 8 Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ................................................ 16 Average Yearly On-Highway Diesel Costs per Liter, World Markets: 2010-2015 ................ 22 Energy Use by Trucks: 1970–2020 ....................................................................................... 24 Commercial Vehicle Registrations, World Markets: 2010–2015 ........................................... 37 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 .............................. 38 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, North America: 2010–2015 ............................... 39 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, Europe: 2010–2015 ........................................... 40 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, Asia Pacific: 2010–2015 .................................... 41 Hybrid Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 .................................. 42 Truck Sales by Vehicle Type, United States: 2010–2015 ..................................................... 43 PHEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015............................................. 44 PHEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 ............................................... 45 BEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 ............................................... 46 BEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 .................................................. 47
Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3
United States Truck Classes ................................................................................................... 4 Cutaway-Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles ........................................................................ 6 Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles ...................................................................................................... 7 Hybrid Truck Electric System ................................................................................................ 15 Eaton Corp. Hydraulic Series Hybrid System ....................................................................... 20 Diesel Engine Emission Control System ............................................................................... 21
Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 4.1
European Vehicle Classes ...................................................................................................... 5 Hybrid Electric Buses in Operation by State, United States: 2010 ......................................... 9 Typical Hybrid Vehicle Costs................................................................................................. 11 Cost of Diesel Compared to Other Fuels .............................................................................. 23
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses
Section 11 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the hybrid truck market, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, trade associations, battery manufacturers, and fleet managers, with a study of the market for hybrid vehicle technologies within the medium- and heavy-duty truck market among vehicle fleet purchasers. The fleet market is defined as vehicles purchased by corporate, government, or university entities for their everyday operations, and does not include vehicles purchased by private individuals that may be used for business purposes (such as daily commuting). The report’s major objective is to determine the state of the industry and likely future growth of hybrid medium- and heavy-duty trucks within the fleet market. It also provides a review of major demand drivers as well as key industry players within the competitive landscape. The report’s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and vehicles covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included. The forecast period extends through 2015.
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing research reports. The key component of Pike Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research’s analysts and the firm’s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
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NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire time frame in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2010 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses
Published 2Q 2010
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Dave Hurst Industry Analyst Clint Wheelock Managing Director
Hybrid Trucks and Buses
Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Trucks are classified based on the gross vehicle weight (GVW) of their chassis. In the United States, these weights are separated into classes 1 through 8, from light duty to heavy duty. Medium-duty (MD) trucks fall into classes 2b to 6 (8,501 to 26,000 pounds GVW), which roughly match the European weight classes N1 and N2. Heavy-duty (HD) trucks are classes 7 and 8 (26,000 pounds or more) and European class N3. These distinctions are important because they help ensure that the vehicles can carry their required loads. Within each class, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) build trucks of several different formats, including stripped chassis, cab and chassis, and open cab and chassis. Once OEMs manufacture the chassis, other companies fit van bodies or additional equipment on the structure, thereby creating step vans, refuse trucks, shuttle buses, ambulances, or specialized power take-off (PTO) equipment trucks. In PTO trucks, power is directed from the engine to the truck’s particular equipment, which can be aerial lifts, cranes, diggers, or other apparatus. This equipment then draws its power from the engine. There are essentially five types of hybrid systems that can be implemented on board MD and HD vehicles:
Hybrid electric: Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) generate all their power on board, and deliver that power to the wheels either in parallel with an internal combustion engine (ICE) or in serial with no connection between the ICE and the wheels. Plug-in hybrid electric: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) systems get some of their power, either parallel or serial, from an off-vehicle source. Battery electric: Battery electric vehicle (BEV) systems get all of their power from off-vehicle sources, and they store the power on the vehicle. Therefore, these vehicles require large batteries and recharging time, but they have zero emissions. Mild electric power take-off (EPTO) hybrids: These systems do not provide any power to the wheels from electricity; rather, they power all PTO equipment via battery storage. Therefore these vehicles do not require the ICE to idle for extended periods during equipment usage. Hydraulic hybrid: These systems generate power on board the vehicle by utilizing hydraulic pressure accumulated during braking. This pressure is used to provide power for the hydraulic motors that move the wheels.
MD delivery vehicles are currently one of the biggest markets for hybrid trucks, with Eaton Corp. holding the largest market share of hybrid systems. Chassis OEMs typically partner with a third-party supplier who provides and installs the hybrid components (electric motor, battery, battery management system, or hydraulics). Within the delivery vehicle market, Federal Express and UPS both have fleets of more than 200 MD hybrid vans. Utility trucks, such as diggers or aerial lifts, equipped with EPTO hybrid technology, can save substantial fuel because they do not need to idle the engine while crews work at a jobsite. These systems also often include the ability to draw power from an outside source in addition to the engine (an example would be Terex Utilities’ HyPower hybrid system), which helps reduce the idle time. Systems like these tend to save between 1,000 and 1,500 gallons of diesel per year, depending on how they are integrated into the vehicle and
© 2010 Pike Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and may not otherwise be accessed or used, without the express written permission of Pike Research LLC.
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses what kind of equipment they are powering. Because they have the physical space to add the equipment, HD transit buses have typically been test beds for hybrid systems. Additionally, transit companies are more willing to test such innovative technologies because they receive government funding to explore such solutions. As a result, Pike Research forecasts that there will be 9,052 hybrid buses operating in the U.S. in 2010. As with MD trucks, hybrid HD trucks recover the majority of their battery energy through regenerative braking. Because over-the-road (OTR) trucks do a lot of freeway driving, they do not have the chance to recapture that energy via braking and rely on the engine to recharge the batteries. Therefore HD OTR trucks, such as semi trucks, are often considered inappropriate candidates for hybrid systems because they need to maintain consistent high speeds and travel long distances. Currently, Peterbilt is the only manufacturer in the U.S. to market a hybrid OTR truck. However, it is common for OTR truck drivers to park and idle their trucks during long distance travel for several hours or overnight in order to maintain cab comfort. Alternative Power Units (APUs) power the cab off of batteries (or other small generators) instead of using the large truck engine. This allows the large truck engine to be turned off, thereby saving perhaps as much as 1,000 gallons of fuel per year. Chart 1.1
Petroleum Consumption by Transportation Sector, United States
(Source: Rocky Mountain Institute)
Demand for hybrid MD and HD trucks is dependent on multiple factors, like the overall economics of specific industries; increased regulations on emissions; and the availability of other alternative fuels. Package delivery has been a key focus for hybrid truck designs because the demand for these vehicles has been strong, as fleets seek to reduce their fuel consumption and emissions. HEV and plug-in electric transit bus builders have been focusing on the U.S. market in the last couple of years because of an increased spending on transit buses, and the popular alternative of natural gas buses remains expensive to install stations or a difficult fuel to find in many parts of the country.
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses Overall, the demand for hybrid MD and HD trucks will be strong in Asia Pacific and North America. China and the U.S. will be the main sources of the demand; though by 2015, demand for MD hybrids in China is likely to outpace demand in the U.S. (CAGR of 107% and 38%, respectively). Within the HD truck market, the plug-in hybrid is not likely to see strong growth as BEV and HEV numbers grow. Fleets that need to cover expansive territory while carrying HD loads will likely adopt HEV technology to help contain the costs of the battery. Fleets that have a set delivery or commuter route will likely gravitate toward BEV technology. Pike Research anticipates that the HD plug-in hybrid truck market will grow to 2,213 vehicles globally in 2015, but this market will be dwarfed by the HEV HD truck market, which will see its numbers grow to 13,938 vehicles, and by BEV trucks, which will reach 4,354 vehicles in 2015. Worldwide, the market for hybrid and plug-in MD and HD vehicles is expected to grow to 103,940 vehicles by 2015. Chart 1.2
HEV/PHEV/BEV MD and HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015
(Source: Pike Research)
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Section 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Market Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Definitions...................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Overview by Truck Types.............................................................................................................. 5 2.2.1 Medium-Duty Delivery Trucks ................................................................................................. 5 2.2.2 Medium-Duty Trucks for Nondelivery Applications ................................................................. 6 2.2.3 Heavy-Duty Trucks .................................................................................................................. 7 2.2.4 Over-the-Road Heavy-Duty Trucks ......................................................................................... 8 2.2.5 Buses....................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Industry Impact on Hybrid Truck Market ..................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Economic Growth of Specific Industries ................................................................................ 11 2.4 Purchase Costs of Hybrid Systems............................................................................................. 11 2.4.1 Recovery of Cost Premiums.................................................................................................. 11 2.5 Impact on the Market from Alternative Fuel Vehicles ................................................................. 12 2.5.1 Biodiesel ................................................................................................................................ 12 2.5.2 Natural Gas Buses and Trucks ............................................................................................. 13 2.5.3 Fuel Cell Buses and Trucks .................................................................................................. 13 2.6 Service and Maintenance Issues with Hybrid Trucks ................................................................. 13 Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Technology Issues .................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Hybrid Truck Drivetrains .............................................................................................................. 14 3.1.1 Parallel Hybrid Electric Design .............................................................................................. 14 3.1.2 Series Hybrids ....................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.3 Mild EPTO Hybrids ................................................................................................................ 15 3.2 Auxiliary Power Units in Heavy-Duty Classes 7 and 8................................................................ 15 3.3 Plug-in Hybrids and Battery Electric Trucks ................................................................................ 16 3.4 Recharging Infrastructure............................................................................................................ 17 3.4.1 Electric Utilities and Smart Grid Technologies ...................................................................... 17 3.5 Voltage and Current Conversion ................................................................................................. 18 3.6 Battery Technology ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.6.1 Lead-Acid Batteries ............................................................................................................... 18 3.6.2 Nickel-Metal Hydride Batteries .............................................................................................. 18 3.6.3 Lithium-Ion Batteries ............................................................................................................. 18 3.6.4 Lithium-Titanate Batteries ..................................................................................................... 19 3.7 Ultracapacitors ............................................................................................................................ 19 3.8 Regenerative Braking .................................................................................................................. 19 3.9 Hydraulic Hybrid Systems ........................................................................................................... 19 3.10 Emissions Control Equipment ..................................................................................................... 20 Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 22 Demand Drivers ......................................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Fuel Prices .................................................................................................................................. 22 4.2 “No Idle” Rules ............................................................................................................................ 23 4.3 Greening of Fleets ....................................................................................................................... 23 4.4 Government Emissions Regulations ........................................................................................... 24 4.4.1 United States ......................................................................................................................... 25 4.4.1.1 EPA Emissions Limitations ........................................................................................... 25
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses 4.4.2 Canada .................................................................................................................................. 25 4.4.3 South America ....................................................................................................................... 25 4.4.4 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 25 4.4.5 Japan ..................................................................................................................................... 26 4.4.6 China ..................................................................................................................................... 26 4.4.7 Other Markets ........................................................................................................................ 26 4.5 Government Incentives ............................................................................................................... 26 4.5.1 United States ......................................................................................................................... 26 4.5.2 Canada .................................................................................................................................. 26 4.5.3 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 26 4.5.4 Japan ..................................................................................................................................... 27 4.5.5 China ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 28 Key Industry Players................................................................................................................................. 28 5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers.............................................................................................. 28 5.1.1 Altec Industries ...................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.2 Azure Dynamics .................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.3 Beiqi Foton Motor Co. Ltd. .................................................................................................... 28 5.1.4 Crane Carrier Company ........................................................................................................ 28 5.1.5 Daimler Trucks/Freightliner ................................................................................................... 28 5.1.6 Dueco/Odyne......................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.7 Electric Vehicles International ............................................................................................... 29 5.1.8 Ford Motor Co. ...................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.9 General Motors ...................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.10 Gillig Corp. ........................................................................................................................ 30 5.1.11 Hyundai ............................................................................................................................. 30 5.1.12 Iveco .................................................................................................................................. 30 5.1.13 MAN SE ............................................................................................................................ 30 5.1.14 Mitsubishi Fuso Truck ....................................................................................................... 30 5.1.15 Navistar/International Truck and Engine Corp. ................................................................. 30 5.1.16 New Flyer Bus ................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.17 Nissan and Renault ........................................................................................................... 31 5.1.18 Orion Bus .......................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.19 Proterra ............................................................................................................................. 31 5.1.20 PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF .................................................................................... 31 5.1.21 Toyota Motor Corp./Hino ................................................................................................... 31 5.1.22 Terex Utilities .................................................................................................................... 32 5.1.23 Volvo Trucks ..................................................................................................................... 32 5.1.24 Zero Truck ......................................................................................................................... 32 5.2 Key Suppliers .............................................................................................................................. 32 5.2.1 A123 Systems ....................................................................................................................... 32 5.2.2 ArvinMeritor ........................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.3 BAE Systems......................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.4 Bosch Rexroth AG ................................................................................................................. 33 5.2.5 Cobasys................................................................................................................................. 33 5.2.6 Dow Kokam Inc. .................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.7 Eaton Corp. ........................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.8 Enova Systems Inc. ............................................................................................................... 34 5.2.9 ISE Corp. ............................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.10 Johnson Controls-Saft ...................................................................................................... 35 5.2.11 LG Chemical/Compact Power ........................................................................................... 35 5.2.12 Maxwell Technologies ....................................................................................................... 35 5.2.13 Panasonic EV Energy ....................................................................................................... 35
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Hybrid Trucks and Buses 5.2.14 Siemens ............................................................................................................................ 35 5.2.15 UQM Technologies ........................................................................................................... 35 5.2.16 Valence Energy Storage Solutions ................................................................................... 36 5.2.17 ZF Friedrichshafen AG ...................................................................................................... 36 Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 37 Market Forecasts....................................................................................................................................... 37 6.1 Commercial Vehicle Registrations .............................................................................................. 37 6.1.1 North America........................................................................................................................ 37 6.1.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 37 6.1.3 Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 38 6.2 Hybrid Medium-Duty Truck Sales ............................................................................................... 38 6.2.1 North America........................................................................................................................ 39 6.2.2 Europe ................................................................................................................................... 40 6.2.3 Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 41 6.3 Hybrid Heavy-Duty Truck Sales .................................................................................................. 42 6.4 United States Trucks by Vehicle Type ........................................................................................ 43 6.5 Plug-in Hybrid Medium-Duty Truck Sales ................................................................................... 44 6.6 Plug-in Hybrid Heavy-Duty Truck Sales ...................................................................................... 45 6.7 Battery Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales ................................................................................. 46 6.8 Battery Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Sales .................................................................................... 47 6.9 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 48 Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 49 Company Directory ................................................................................................................................... 49 Section 8 .................................................................................................................................................... 57 Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 57 Section 9 .................................................................................................................................................... 60 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 60 Section 10 .................................................................................................................................................. 63 Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 63 Section 11 .................................................................................................................................................. 64 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 64 Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 64 Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 65
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Section 10 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Chart 1.2 Chart 2.1 Chart 3.1 Chart 4.1 Chart 4.2 Chart 6.1 Chart 6.2 Chart 6.3 Chart 6.4 Chart 6.5 Chart 6.6 Chart 6.7 Chart 6.8 Chart 6.9 Chart 6.10 Chart 6.11
Petroleum Consumption by Transportation Sector, United States ......................................... 2 HEV/PHEV/BEV MD and HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015................................. 3 Petroleum Consumption by Sector, Total and Transportation, United States ........................ 8 Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ................................................ 16 Average Yearly On-Highway Diesel Costs per Liter, World Markets: 2010-2015 ................ 22 Energy Use by Trucks: 1970–2020 ....................................................................................... 24 Commercial Vehicle Registrations, World Markets: 2010–2015 ........................................... 37 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 .............................. 38 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, North America: 2010–2015 ............................... 39 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, Europe: 2010–2015 ........................................... 40 Hybrid Electric Medium-Duty Truck Sales, Asia Pacific: 2010–2015 .................................... 41 Hybrid Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 .................................. 42 Truck Sales by Vehicle Type, United States: 2010–2015 ..................................................... 43 PHEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015............................................. 44 PHEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 ............................................... 45 BEV Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 ............................................... 46 BEV Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2010–2015 .................................................. 47
Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3
United States Truck Classes ................................................................................................... 4 Cutaway-Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles ........................................................................ 6 Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles ...................................................................................................... 7 Hybrid Truck Electric System ................................................................................................ 15 Eaton Corp. Hydraulic Series Hybrid System ....................................................................... 20 Diesel Engine Emission Control System ............................................................................... 21
Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 4.1
European Vehicle Classes ...................................................................................................... 5 Hybrid Electric Buses in Operation by State, United States: 2010 ......................................... 9 Typical Hybrid Vehicle Costs................................................................................................. 11 Cost of Diesel Compared to Other Fuels .............................................................................. 23
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Section 11 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the hybrid truck market, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, trade associations, battery manufacturers, and fleet managers, with a study of the market for hybrid vehicle technologies within the medium- and heavy-duty truck market among vehicle fleet purchasers. The fleet market is defined as vehicles purchased by corporate, government, or university entities for their everyday operations, and does not include vehicles purchased by private individuals that may be used for business purposes (such as daily commuting). The report’s major objective is to determine the state of the industry and likely future growth of hybrid medium- and heavy-duty trucks within the fleet market. It also provides a review of major demand drivers as well as key industry players within the competitive landscape. The report’s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and vehicles covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included. The forecast period extends through 2015.
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing research reports. The key component of Pike Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research’s analysts and the firm’s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
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NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire time frame in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2010 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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Published 2Q 2010
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