Expect 1Q17E earnings to remain solid
Srisawad Power 1979 Company Update
Buy (17E TP Bt57.00) Close Bt44.50
Finance & Securities May 3, 2017
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Expect 1Q17E earnings to remain solid Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.275
2.747
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
0.2%
0.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,045.50
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
47.00/1,349.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/21.94
52 week High / Low (Bt)
44.75/25.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
6,228.00 8.94
Estimated free float (%)
47.63
Remaining among the leading growth stocks against financial peers We maintain our BUY rating for SAWAD for being among the top growth stocks in the financial sector. Expect 1Q17E net profit of Bt614mn (+46% YoY, +1% QoQ) We expect SAWAD to post solid 1Q17E net profit (NP) of Bt614mn (+46% YoY, +1% QoQ). The strong NP growth YoY should be backed by solid loan growth of 48% YoY and 5% QoQ and non‐interest income growth of 47% YoY and 3% QoQ. This also should be thanks to the ongoing branch expansion to ~2,250 branches at end‐1Q17 vs. 2,130 branches at end‐ 2016. Meanwhile, the loan spread is likely to be quite stable YoY but down QoQ to around 24.2% from 25%. This is partly due to seasonality as well as SAWAD’s short‐term special promotion to clients, especially on car and agricultural land products. We are seeing higher competition in these products, especially from MTLS’s aggressive expansion and more attractive pricing. SAWAD initially expects this promotion to last until 1H17. Asset quality should remain controllable Its NPL ratio for 1Q17E is likely to be quite stable QoQ at around 3.6% following its more stringent measures in the lending, collection and NPL control processes since late 2014. Note that SAWAD normally does loan write‐offs twice a year in every 2Q and 4Q, and we normally see lower NPLs and slightly higher provisions in such quarters. Potential benefits from BFIT acquisition to be seen in L‐T not near term SAWAD recently completed the tender offer process of BFIT, with very few shareholders selling shares for this tender offer. SAWAD now holds a 36.35% stake in BFIT after the tender offer and expects to see consolidation of BFIT in 2H17. As stated in an earlier report, we expect SAWAD’s move to restructure as a holding company and to acquire BFIT posting benefits to SAWAD in the longer run (expected in 2018 onwards) not in the near term as we could see some transition risk in the earlier stage. The LT benefits will depend on how well and quickly SAWAD utilizes the deposit funding benefit and turns this into its current high‐ yield asset base.
Beta
1.39
URL
www.meebaanmeerod.com
CGR
Financials and Valuation
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
1,043
1,504
2,167
2,853
3,575
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Note: An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a member of SAWAD’s board. Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Net profit (Btmn)
855
1,336
2,005
2,440
3,038
EPS (Bt)
0.85
1.31
1.92
2.28
2.77
EPS growth (%)
11%
53%
46%
19%
21%
BV (Bt)
3.43
4.67
6.54
8.52
11.04
Dividend (Bt)
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.06
0.08
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
52.07
33.97
23.21
19.54
16.09
PBV (x)
12.97
9.52
6.80
5.22
4.03
0.05
0.07
0.10
0.14
0.17
37%
33%
35%
31%
29%
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q17 Earnings Preview Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
1Q16
4Q16
1Q17E
% YoY % QoQ
2016
2017E
% YoY % 1Q to 17E
Interest Income
837
1,186
1,237
48%
4% 4,008
5,643
41%
22%
Interest Expenses
78
108
125
60%
16% 369
527
43%
24%
Net Interest Income
759
1,079
1,112
47%
3% 3,639
5,116
41%
22%
Non Interest Income
294
360
378
28%
5% 1,327
1,563
18%
24%
Operating Income
1,053
1,439
1,490
42%
4% 4,967
6,678
34%
22%
Operating Expenses
488
654
675
38%
3% 2,298
3,214
40%
21%
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
565
785
815
44%
4% 2,669
3,465
30%
24%
38
24
45
17%
84% 158
408
158%
11%
Taxes
105
151
154
46%
2% 502
611
22%
25%
Net Profit
420
608
614
46%
1% 2,005
2,440
22%
25%
PPOP
459
634
661
44%
4% 2,167
2,853
32%
23%
EPS (Bt)
0.41
0.58
0.59
43%
1% 1.92
2.28
19%
26%
1Q16
4Q16
599
635
Key Statistics and Ratios (%) Gross NPLs (Btmn)
1Q17E
2016
665
635
2017E 992
Gross NPLs/Loans
4.85%
3.63%
3.63%
3.63%
4.16%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
89.3%
61.3%
64.5%
61.3%
81.2%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
3.4%
34.6%
30.8%
33.5%
30.8%
32.9%
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
136.1%
Debt to equity ratio (x)
1.9
Cost to Income
120.9% 2.2
46.4%
126.1%
120.9%
2.1
45.4%
2.2
45.3%
46.3%
135.2% 2.0 48.1%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
28.0%
25.0%
25.4%
26.7%
23.4%
Interest Spread
24.4%
25.4%
24.2%
24.4%
24.0%
Loan Growth YoY
40.8%
51.0%
48.3%
51.0%
36.4%
6.9%
11.6%
5.0%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2017E
p Downside to current price
+3.5 S.D. +3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
(Bt)
(%)
+2.0SD
9.0
76
72
+1.5SD
8.3
71
59
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
+1.0SD
7.7
65
47
+0.5SD
7.0
60
35
Average
6.4
55
23
-0.5SD
5.8
49
10
-1.0SD
5.1
44
-2
-1.5SD
4.5
38
-14
-2.0SD
3.8
33
-26
Apr-17
Feb-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Jan-16
Mar-16
Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Nov-15
May-…
Jul-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
May-…
Avg.
Jul-14
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Implied PBV (x) market price
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 45
2017E
Implied PER (x) market price (Bt)
(%)
+2.0SD
32.0
73
64
+1.5SD
29.7
68
52
+1.0S.D.
25
+1.0SD
27.3
62
40
Avg.
20
+0.5SD
25.0
57
28
-1 S.D.
Average
22.7
52
16
-0.5SD
20.4
46
4
-1.0SD
18.0
41
-8
-1.5SD
15.7
36
-20
-2.0SD
13.4
31
-31
40 +3.0 S.D. +2.0 S.D.
15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
May-14
10
-2 S.D.
Jul-14
30
Sep-14
35
Downside to current price
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Buy (17E TP Bt57.00) Close Bt44.50
Finance & Securities May 3, 2017
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Expect 1Q17E earnings to remain solid Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.275
2.747
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
0.2%
0.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,045.50
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
47.00/1,349.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/21.94
52 week High / Low (Bt)
44.75/25.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
6,228.00 8.94
Estimated free float (%)
47.63
Remaining among the leading growth stocks against financial peers We maintain our BUY rating for SAWAD for being among the top growth stocks in the financial sector. Expect 1Q17E net profit of Bt614mn (+46% YoY, +1% QoQ) We expect SAWAD to post solid 1Q17E net profit (NP) of Bt614mn (+46% YoY, +1% QoQ). The strong NP growth YoY should be backed by solid loan growth of 48% YoY and 5% QoQ and non‐interest income growth of 47% YoY and 3% QoQ. This also should be thanks to the ongoing branch expansion to ~2,250 branches at end‐1Q17 vs. 2,130 branches at end‐ 2016. Meanwhile, the loan spread is likely to be quite stable YoY but down QoQ to around 24.2% from 25%. This is partly due to seasonality as well as SAWAD’s short‐term special promotion to clients, especially on car and agricultural land products. We are seeing higher competition in these products, especially from MTLS’s aggressive expansion and more attractive pricing. SAWAD initially expects this promotion to last until 1H17. Asset quality should remain controllable Its NPL ratio for 1Q17E is likely to be quite stable QoQ at around 3.6% following its more stringent measures in the lending, collection and NPL control processes since late 2014. Note that SAWAD normally does loan write‐offs twice a year in every 2Q and 4Q, and we normally see lower NPLs and slightly higher provisions in such quarters. Potential benefits from BFIT acquisition to be seen in L‐T not near term SAWAD recently completed the tender offer process of BFIT, with very few shareholders selling shares for this tender offer. SAWAD now holds a 36.35% stake in BFIT after the tender offer and expects to see consolidation of BFIT in 2H17. As stated in an earlier report, we expect SAWAD’s move to restructure as a holding company and to acquire BFIT posting benefits to SAWAD in the longer run (expected in 2018 onwards) not in the near term as we could see some transition risk in the earlier stage. The LT benefits will depend on how well and quickly SAWAD utilizes the deposit funding benefit and turns this into its current high‐ yield asset base.
Beta
1.39
URL
www.meebaanmeerod.com
CGR
Financials and Valuation
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
1,043
1,504
2,167
2,853
3,575
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Note: An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a member of SAWAD’s board. Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Net profit (Btmn)
855
1,336
2,005
2,440
3,038
EPS (Bt)
0.85
1.31
1.92
2.28
2.77
EPS growth (%)
11%
53%
46%
19%
21%
BV (Bt)
3.43
4.67
6.54
8.52
11.04
Dividend (Bt)
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.06
0.08
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
52.07
33.97
23.21
19.54
16.09
PBV (x)
12.97
9.52
6.80
5.22
4.03
0.05
0.07
0.10
0.14
0.17
37%
33%
35%
31%
29%
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q17 Earnings Preview Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
1Q16
4Q16
1Q17E
% YoY % QoQ
2016
2017E
% YoY % 1Q to 17E
Interest Income
837
1,186
1,237
48%
4% 4,008
5,643
41%
22%
Interest Expenses
78
108
125
60%
16% 369
527
43%
24%
Net Interest Income
759
1,079
1,112
47%
3% 3,639
5,116
41%
22%
Non Interest Income
294
360
378
28%
5% 1,327
1,563
18%
24%
Operating Income
1,053
1,439
1,490
42%
4% 4,967
6,678
34%
22%
Operating Expenses
488
654
675
38%
3% 2,298
3,214
40%
21%
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
565
785
815
44%
4% 2,669
3,465
30%
24%
38
24
45
17%
84% 158
408
158%
11%
Taxes
105
151
154
46%
2% 502
611
22%
25%
Net Profit
420
608
614
46%
1% 2,005
2,440
22%
25%
PPOP
459
634
661
44%
4% 2,167
2,853
32%
23%
EPS (Bt)
0.41
0.58
0.59
43%
1% 1.92
2.28
19%
26%
1Q16
4Q16
599
635
Key Statistics and Ratios (%) Gross NPLs (Btmn)
1Q17E
2016
665
635
2017E 992
Gross NPLs/Loans
4.85%
3.63%
3.63%
3.63%
4.16%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
89.3%
61.3%
64.5%
61.3%
81.2%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
3.2%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
3.4%
34.6%
30.8%
33.5%
30.8%
32.9%
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
136.1%
Debt to equity ratio (x)
1.9
Cost to Income
120.9% 2.2
46.4%
126.1%
120.9%
2.1
45.4%
2.2
45.3%
46.3%
135.2% 2.0 48.1%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
28.0%
25.0%
25.4%
26.7%
23.4%
Interest Spread
24.4%
25.4%
24.2%
24.4%
24.0%
Loan Growth YoY
40.8%
51.0%
48.3%
51.0%
36.4%
6.9%
11.6%
5.0%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2017E
p Downside to current price
+3.5 S.D. +3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
(Bt)
(%)
+2.0SD
9.0
76
72
+1.5SD
8.3
71
59
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
+1.0SD
7.7
65
47
+0.5SD
7.0
60
35
Average
6.4
55
23
-0.5SD
5.8
49
10
-1.0SD
5.1
44
-2
-1.5SD
4.5
38
-14
-2.0SD
3.8
33
-26
Apr-17
Feb-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Jan-16
Mar-16
Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Nov-15
May-…
Jul-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
May-…
Avg.
Jul-14
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Implied PBV (x) market price
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 45
2017E
Implied PER (x) market price (Bt)
(%)
+2.0SD
32.0
73
64
+1.5SD
29.7
68
52
+1.0S.D.
25
+1.0SD
27.3
62
40
Avg.
20
+0.5SD
25.0
57
28
-1 S.D.
Average
22.7
52
16
-0.5SD
20.4
46
4
-1.0SD
18.0
41
-8
-1.5SD
15.7
36
-20
-2.0SD
13.4
31
-31
40 +3.0 S.D. +2.0 S.D.
15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
May-14
10
-2 S.D.
Jul-14
30
Sep-14
35
Downside to current price
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
