Expect 3Q16E earnings growth to surpass peers
Muangthai Leasing Company Update
Buy (17E TP Bt27.00) Close Bt19.00
Finance & Securities October 28, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Expect 3Q16E earnings growth to surpass peers Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.576
0.802
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
2.4%
2.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MTLS.BK/MTLS TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,120.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
40.00/1,148.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/2.88
52 week High / Low (Bt)
22.10/14.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
7,475.00 3.06
Estimated free float (%)
20.07
Beta
0.77
URL
www.muangthaileasing.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Growth outlook continues outpacing peers We maintain a BUY call for MTLS as we see that it remains appealing on being among the top growth stocks in the financial sector backed by its impressive earnings, which should continue outpacing peers (we expect robust EPS CARG of 42% in 2016‐18E). This should be thanks to its leading position in the field and the favorable industry outlook. Expect 3Q16E net profit of Bt350mn (+59% YoY, +17% QoQ) We expect MTLS to post robust 3Q16E net profit (NP) of Bt350mn (+59% YoY, +17% QoQ) and 9M16E NP of Bt931mn (+59% YoY). The sharp NP growth, especially YoY for 3Q16E, should be backed mainly by the likelihood of robust loan growth of 84% YoY and 17% QoQ and non‐ interest income growth of 40% YoY and 11% QoQ. This should be thanks primarily to its ongoing aggressive branch expansion to 1,515 branches at end‐3Q16 vs. 940 branches at end‐15, with 279 and 575 new branches opened in 3Q16 and 9M16, respectively, relatively in line with the firm’s target of ~1,600 branches at end‐16. The interest spread should remain quite stable QoQ at 19.4% but improve YoY from 18.7%, thanks mainly to its efficient funding cost management and the low interest environment. Likely see lower provision in 3Q16 based on its latest loan risk profile MTLS is in discussions with its auditor on a change in its provisioning policy/model to be based on the risk profile/probability default (PD) rate of each loan type instead of on the average rate, which is mainly based on its original focus on motorcycle title loans. Note that in the past few years, MTLS has diversified its portfolio to new products (loans collateralized by cars, agricultural trucks and land) from its original focus on its motorcycle collateralized lending (now ~50% of its loan portfolio vs. 91% in 2012). In 3Q16, MTLS expects its auditor to agree with this new provisioning model and this should result in a slightly lower provisioning burden (roughly by Bt20‐30mn+/‐) as motorcycle title loans normally require a higher provisioning level given the higher PD rate vs. car and land title loans. Note that our net profit forecast (Bt350mn) for 3Q16E factored in this change. In contrast, if the auditor does not approve the new provisioning model within 3Q16, the net profit for 3Q16E would stand at ~Bt335mn (+52% YoY, +12% QoQ). Asset quality remains manageable Its NPLs for 3Q16E will likely increase slightly both YoY and QoQ following its rapid credit expansion. However, the NPL ratio is likely to remain stable QoQ at ~0.94% of loans but drop from 1.01% in 3Q15. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
572
856
1,622
2,304
3,123
Net profit (Btmn)
544
825
1,255
1,736
2,373
EPS (Bt)
0.26
0.39
0.59
0.82
1.12
EPS growth (%)
15%
52%
52%
38%
37%
BV (Bt)
2.41
2.67
3.06
3.58
4.29
Dividend (Bt)
0.13
0.20
0.30
0.41
0.56
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
74.03
48.82
32.09
23.20
16.97
Analyst, no 17836
PBV (x)
7.89
7.13
6.21
5.31
4.43
[email protected]
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
0.68
1.05
1.56
2.16
2.95
15%
15%
21%
25%
28%
66 (0) 2695‐5872
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 3Q16E earnings preview Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
3Q15
Interest Income
591
897
1,027
74%
14% 1,545
2,694
74% 2,225
3,793
70%
71%
Interest Expenses
59
72
86
46%
20% 167
224
34% 228
308
35%
73%
Net Interest Income
532
826
941
77%
14% 1,378
2,470
79% 1,998
3,485
74%
71%
Non Interest Income
84
106
117
40%
11% 246
320
30% 334
447
34%
71%
Operating Income
616
931
1,059
72%
14% 1,624
2,789
72% 2,331
3,932
69%
71%
Operating Expenses
327
457
535
64%
17% 893
1,382
55% 1,269
1,993
57%
69%
Operating Profit
289
475
524
81%
10% 731
1,408
93% 1,063
1,939
82%
73%
Provision expenses (Reversal)
13
106
82
556%
‐22% (4) 245 ‐6664% 25
355 1334%
69%
Taxes
55
66
88
61%
33% 146
317
53%
71%
Gain(loss) from foreclosed assets
(2) (3) (3)
62%
17% (4) (8)
97%
61%
Net Profit PPOP EPS (Bt)
220 234 0.10
59% 86% 59%
17% 585 7% 585 17% 0.28
52% 90% 52%
74% 73% 74%
2Q16 3Q16E % YoY % QoQ 9M15 9M16E
300 409 0.14
350 435 0.17
225
2015
54% 207
931 1,183 0.44
3Q15
2Q16 3Q16E
9M15 9M16E
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
111
162
111
Gross NPLs/Loans
1.01% 0.94% 0.94%
1.01% 0.94%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
281%
302%
294%
281%
294%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2016E % YoY % 9M to 16E
75% (6) (12) 1,255 1,622 0.59
59% 825 102% 856 59% 0.39
Key Statistics and Ratios
190
% YoY
2015
190
2016E
117
198
0.92%
0.93%
287.6% 335.9% 2.7%
3.1%
43.2%
29.8%
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
46.3% 32.3% 29.4%
46.3% 29.4%
182%
182%
140%
Debt to equity ratio
1.2
1.2
2.4
Cost to Income
53.1% 49.0% 50.5%
55.0% 49.5%
54.4%
50.7%
Non Interest Income/Total Income 13.6% 11.4% 11.1%
15.2% 11.5%
14.3%
11.4%
145% 2.1
140% 2.4
177.3% 143.1% 1.3
2.4
Interest Spread
18.7% 19.9% 19.4%
17.3% 19.5%
17.9%
19.5%
Net Interest Margin
20.9% 20.8% 20.1%
20.4% 20.5%
19.4%
20.5%
Loan Growth YoY
57.8% 84.5% 83.6%
57.8% 83.6%
69.6%
69.1%
Loan Growth QoQ
17.4% 19.3% 16.8%
17.4% 16.8%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: MTLS's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside vs. market price
(Bt)
(%)
25
33
7.9
24
28
+1.5SD
7.6
23
22
+1.0SD
7.2
22
17
+0.5SD
6.9
21
11
Average
6.6
20
5
4.5
-0.5SD
6.2
19
0
4.0
-1.0SD
5.9
18
-6
-1.5SD
5.5
17
-11
-2.0SD
5.2
16
-17
9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5
PBV (x)
+2.5SD
8.3
+2.0SD
Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
+3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
5.0
2016E
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALLA, BPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Buy (17E TP Bt27.00) Close Bt19.00
Finance & Securities October 28, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Expect 3Q16E earnings growth to surpass peers Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.576
0.802
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
2.4%
2.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MTLS.BK/MTLS TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,120.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
40.00/1,148.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/2.88
52 week High / Low (Bt)
22.10/14.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
7,475.00 3.06
Estimated free float (%)
20.07
Beta
0.77
URL
www.muangthaileasing.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Growth outlook continues outpacing peers We maintain a BUY call for MTLS as we see that it remains appealing on being among the top growth stocks in the financial sector backed by its impressive earnings, which should continue outpacing peers (we expect robust EPS CARG of 42% in 2016‐18E). This should be thanks to its leading position in the field and the favorable industry outlook. Expect 3Q16E net profit of Bt350mn (+59% YoY, +17% QoQ) We expect MTLS to post robust 3Q16E net profit (NP) of Bt350mn (+59% YoY, +17% QoQ) and 9M16E NP of Bt931mn (+59% YoY). The sharp NP growth, especially YoY for 3Q16E, should be backed mainly by the likelihood of robust loan growth of 84% YoY and 17% QoQ and non‐ interest income growth of 40% YoY and 11% QoQ. This should be thanks primarily to its ongoing aggressive branch expansion to 1,515 branches at end‐3Q16 vs. 940 branches at end‐15, with 279 and 575 new branches opened in 3Q16 and 9M16, respectively, relatively in line with the firm’s target of ~1,600 branches at end‐16. The interest spread should remain quite stable QoQ at 19.4% but improve YoY from 18.7%, thanks mainly to its efficient funding cost management and the low interest environment. Likely see lower provision in 3Q16 based on its latest loan risk profile MTLS is in discussions with its auditor on a change in its provisioning policy/model to be based on the risk profile/probability default (PD) rate of each loan type instead of on the average rate, which is mainly based on its original focus on motorcycle title loans. Note that in the past few years, MTLS has diversified its portfolio to new products (loans collateralized by cars, agricultural trucks and land) from its original focus on its motorcycle collateralized lending (now ~50% of its loan portfolio vs. 91% in 2012). In 3Q16, MTLS expects its auditor to agree with this new provisioning model and this should result in a slightly lower provisioning burden (roughly by Bt20‐30mn+/‐) as motorcycle title loans normally require a higher provisioning level given the higher PD rate vs. car and land title loans. Note that our net profit forecast (Bt350mn) for 3Q16E factored in this change. In contrast, if the auditor does not approve the new provisioning model within 3Q16, the net profit for 3Q16E would stand at ~Bt335mn (+52% YoY, +12% QoQ). Asset quality remains manageable Its NPLs for 3Q16E will likely increase slightly both YoY and QoQ following its rapid credit expansion. However, the NPL ratio is likely to remain stable QoQ at ~0.94% of loans but drop from 1.01% in 3Q15. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
572
856
1,622
2,304
3,123
Net profit (Btmn)
544
825
1,255
1,736
2,373
EPS (Bt)
0.26
0.39
0.59
0.82
1.12
EPS growth (%)
15%
52%
52%
38%
37%
BV (Bt)
2.41
2.67
3.06
3.58
4.29
Dividend (Bt)
0.13
0.20
0.30
0.41
0.56
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
74.03
48.82
32.09
23.20
16.97
Analyst, no 17836
PBV (x)
7.89
7.13
6.21
5.31
4.43
[email protected]
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
0.68
1.05
1.56
2.16
2.95
15%
15%
21%
25%
28%
66 (0) 2695‐5872
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 3Q16E earnings preview Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
3Q15
Interest Income
591
897
1,027
74%
14% 1,545
2,694
74% 2,225
3,793
70%
71%
Interest Expenses
59
72
86
46%
20% 167
224
34% 228
308
35%
73%
Net Interest Income
532
826
941
77%
14% 1,378
2,470
79% 1,998
3,485
74%
71%
Non Interest Income
84
106
117
40%
11% 246
320
30% 334
447
34%
71%
Operating Income
616
931
1,059
72%
14% 1,624
2,789
72% 2,331
3,932
69%
71%
Operating Expenses
327
457
535
64%
17% 893
1,382
55% 1,269
1,993
57%
69%
Operating Profit
289
475
524
81%
10% 731
1,408
93% 1,063
1,939
82%
73%
Provision expenses (Reversal)
13
106
82
556%
‐22% (4) 245 ‐6664% 25
355 1334%
69%
Taxes
55
66
88
61%
33% 146
317
53%
71%
Gain(loss) from foreclosed assets
(2) (3) (3)
62%
17% (4) (8)
97%
61%
Net Profit PPOP EPS (Bt)
220 234 0.10
59% 86% 59%
17% 585 7% 585 17% 0.28
52% 90% 52%
74% 73% 74%
2Q16 3Q16E % YoY % QoQ 9M15 9M16E
300 409 0.14
350 435 0.17
225
2015
54% 207
931 1,183 0.44
3Q15
2Q16 3Q16E
9M15 9M16E
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
111
162
111
Gross NPLs/Loans
1.01% 0.94% 0.94%
1.01% 0.94%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
281%
302%
294%
281%
294%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2016E % YoY % 9M to 16E
75% (6) (12) 1,255 1,622 0.59
59% 825 102% 856 59% 0.39
Key Statistics and Ratios
190
% YoY
2015
190
2016E
117
198
0.92%
0.93%
287.6% 335.9% 2.7%
3.1%
43.2%
29.8%
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
46.3% 32.3% 29.4%
46.3% 29.4%
182%
182%
140%
Debt to equity ratio
1.2
1.2
2.4
Cost to Income
53.1% 49.0% 50.5%
55.0% 49.5%
54.4%
50.7%
Non Interest Income/Total Income 13.6% 11.4% 11.1%
15.2% 11.5%
14.3%
11.4%
145% 2.1
140% 2.4
177.3% 143.1% 1.3
2.4
Interest Spread
18.7% 19.9% 19.4%
17.3% 19.5%
17.9%
19.5%
Net Interest Margin
20.9% 20.8% 20.1%
20.4% 20.5%
19.4%
20.5%
Loan Growth YoY
57.8% 84.5% 83.6%
57.8% 83.6%
69.6%
69.1%
Loan Growth QoQ
17.4% 19.3% 16.8%
17.4% 16.8%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: MTLS's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside vs. market price
(Bt)
(%)
25
33
7.9
24
28
+1.5SD
7.6
23
22
+1.0SD
7.2
22
17
+0.5SD
6.9
21
11
Average
6.6
20
5
4.5
-0.5SD
6.2
19
0
4.0
-1.0SD
5.9
18
-6
-1.5SD
5.5
17
-11
-2.0SD
5.2
16
-17
9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5
PBV (x)
+2.5SD
8.3
+2.0SD
Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
+3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
5.0
2016E
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALLA, BPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
