Global Crude Oil, Refining & Fuels Outlook to 2035 - Hart Energy
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1616 S. Voss Road | Suite 1000 | Houston, TX | United States | +1.713.260.6400
Bogotá | Brussels | Denver | Houston | London | Melbourne | Mexico City New Delhi | New York | San Diego | São Paulo | Singapore | Washington, D.C.
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Fuels Outlook to 2035
Strategic Insights Across the Energy Value Chain
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Fuels Outlook to 2035 World Refining & Fuels Service
www.HartWRFS.com
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
Table of Contents 1.
Executive Summary ♦ Global Refining Industry Business Climate ♦ Crude Oil Supply and Quality & Non-Refinery Inputs ♦ Petroleum Product Demand Projections ♦ Worldwide Fuel Quality and Specification Outlook ♦ Inter-Regional Product Trade Trends ♦ Refining Capacity Expansion & Reconfiguration ♦ Renewable Fuel Outlook
2.
Economic Outlook ♦ Introduction and Global Context ♦ Global GDP Analysis ♦ Geopolitics of Oil Supply and Demand ♦ Crude Oil Pricing
3.
Global Outlook ♦ Introduction ♦ Supply and Demand Balance ♦ Crude Oil Supply and Quality ♦ Non-Crude Oil Supply ♦ Refined Product Demand ♦ Refined Product Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput and Refined Product Trade ♦ Refinery Capacity and Expansion Requirements
4.
North America ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
1
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
5.
Latin America & the Caribbean ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
6.
Europe ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
7.
Commonwealth Of Independent States ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ ♦
8.
Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
Asia-Pacific ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
2
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
9.
Middle East ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
10. Africa ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities 11. Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids Fuels ♦ Introduction ♦ Drivers and Markets ♦ Synthetic Fuels and Refining ♦ Worldwide GTL Facilities: Current Picture ♦ Future Outlook ♦ Appendix: Gas-to-Liquids Process Technology 12. Biofuels Outlook ♦ ♦
Introduction: Global View & Trends Regional Outlook North America Latin America & the Caribbean Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Asia-Pacific Africa: The Next Frontier?
13. Glossary
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
3
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
List of Tables for Each Region Table X.1: Countries Table X.2: Quality of Crude Oil and Refinery Input (2012-2035) Table X.3: Refined Product Demand (2012-2035) Table X.4: Current Select Gasoline Specifications Table X.5: Announced or Anticipated Revisions to Gasoline Specifications Table X.6: Trends for Gasoline Quality (2012-2035) Table X.7: Gasoline Demand by Sulfur Category (2012-2035) Table X.8: Current Diesel Fuel Specifications Table X.9: Announced or Anticipated Revisions to Diesel Fuel Specifications Table X.10: Trends for Diesel Quality (2012-2035) Table X.11: Distillate Demand by Sulfur Category (2012-2035) Table X.12: Refining Capacity and Anticipated Expansions Table X.13: Reported Expansion Projects Table X.14: Refinery Complexity Ranking Table X.15: Top 10 Refinery Complexity Ranking Table X.16: Refinery and Blender Input and Production (2012-2035) Table X.17: Renewable Fuels and GTL/CTL Supplies Market (2012-2035) Table X.18: Refined Product Balance (2012) Table X.19: Refined Product Balance (2013-2035) Table X.20: Incremental Capacity Requirements (2013-2035) Table X.21: Projected Capacity Requirements (2013-2035) Table X.22: Incremental H2 Production & Sulfur Recovery Requirements (2013-2035)
List of Figures for Each Region Figure X.1: Map Figure X.2: Crude Oil and NGL Production (2012) Figure X.3: Crude Oil and NGL Supply (2012) Figure X.4: Quality of Crude Oil Processed (2012-2035) Figure X.5: Refined Product Demand Composition (2012) Figure X.6: Refined Product Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.7: Product Mix and Incremental Product Distribution (2012-2035) Figure X.8: Gasoline and Naphtha Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.9: Total Distillate and On-Road Diesel Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.10: Jet Fuel and Kerosene Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.11: Heavy Fuel Oil and Residual Bunker Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.12: Average Market Octane and Refinery Production (2012-2035) Figure X.13: Renewable Fuels and GTL/CTL Supplies Market (2012-2035) Figure X.14: Gasoline-to-Distillate Production Ratio (2010-2035) Figure X.15: Downstream Refining Capacity (2010-2035) Figure X.16: Incremental Hydrogen Production Requirements (2013-2035) Figure X.17: Incremental Sulfur Recovery Requirements (2013-2035)
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
4
1616 S. Voss Road | Suite 1000 | Houston, TX | United States | +1.713.260.6400
Bogotá | Brussels | Denver | Houston | London | Melbourne | Mexico City New Delhi | New York | San Diego | São Paulo | Singapore | Washington, D.C.
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Fuels Outlook to 2035
Strategic Insights Across the Energy Value Chain
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Fuels Outlook to 2035 World Refining & Fuels Service
www.HartWRFS.com
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
Table of Contents 1.
Executive Summary ♦ Global Refining Industry Business Climate ♦ Crude Oil Supply and Quality & Non-Refinery Inputs ♦ Petroleum Product Demand Projections ♦ Worldwide Fuel Quality and Specification Outlook ♦ Inter-Regional Product Trade Trends ♦ Refining Capacity Expansion & Reconfiguration ♦ Renewable Fuel Outlook
2.
Economic Outlook ♦ Introduction and Global Context ♦ Global GDP Analysis ♦ Geopolitics of Oil Supply and Demand ♦ Crude Oil Pricing
3.
Global Outlook ♦ Introduction ♦ Supply and Demand Balance ♦ Crude Oil Supply and Quality ♦ Non-Crude Oil Supply ♦ Refined Product Demand ♦ Refined Product Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput and Refined Product Trade ♦ Refinery Capacity and Expansion Requirements
4.
North America ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
1
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
5.
Latin America & the Caribbean ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
6.
Europe ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
7.
Commonwealth Of Independent States ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ ♦
8.
Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
Asia-Pacific ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
2
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
9.
Middle East ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities
10. Africa ♦ Key Findings and Conclusions ♦ Assumptions and Inputs ♦ The Region ♦ Crude Oil and NGL Supply and Quality ♦ Petroleum Product Supply and Demand ♦ Transportation Fuel Quality ♦ Refinery Capacity and Configuration ♦ Refinery Throughput, Blending and Production ♦ Refinery Challenges and Opportunities 11. Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids Fuels ♦ Introduction ♦ Drivers and Markets ♦ Synthetic Fuels and Refining ♦ Worldwide GTL Facilities: Current Picture ♦ Future Outlook ♦ Appendix: Gas-to-Liquids Process Technology 12. Biofuels Outlook ♦ ♦
Introduction: Global View & Trends Regional Outlook North America Latin America & the Caribbean Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Asia-Pacific Africa: The Next Frontier?
13. Glossary
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
3
Global Crude Oil, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035
List of Tables for Each Region Table X.1: Countries Table X.2: Quality of Crude Oil and Refinery Input (2012-2035) Table X.3: Refined Product Demand (2012-2035) Table X.4: Current Select Gasoline Specifications Table X.5: Announced or Anticipated Revisions to Gasoline Specifications Table X.6: Trends for Gasoline Quality (2012-2035) Table X.7: Gasoline Demand by Sulfur Category (2012-2035) Table X.8: Current Diesel Fuel Specifications Table X.9: Announced or Anticipated Revisions to Diesel Fuel Specifications Table X.10: Trends for Diesel Quality (2012-2035) Table X.11: Distillate Demand by Sulfur Category (2012-2035) Table X.12: Refining Capacity and Anticipated Expansions Table X.13: Reported Expansion Projects Table X.14: Refinery Complexity Ranking Table X.15: Top 10 Refinery Complexity Ranking Table X.16: Refinery and Blender Input and Production (2012-2035) Table X.17: Renewable Fuels and GTL/CTL Supplies Market (2012-2035) Table X.18: Refined Product Balance (2012) Table X.19: Refined Product Balance (2013-2035) Table X.20: Incremental Capacity Requirements (2013-2035) Table X.21: Projected Capacity Requirements (2013-2035) Table X.22: Incremental H2 Production & Sulfur Recovery Requirements (2013-2035)
List of Figures for Each Region Figure X.1: Map Figure X.2: Crude Oil and NGL Production (2012) Figure X.3: Crude Oil and NGL Supply (2012) Figure X.4: Quality of Crude Oil Processed (2012-2035) Figure X.5: Refined Product Demand Composition (2012) Figure X.6: Refined Product Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.7: Product Mix and Incremental Product Distribution (2012-2035) Figure X.8: Gasoline and Naphtha Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.9: Total Distillate and On-Road Diesel Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.10: Jet Fuel and Kerosene Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.11: Heavy Fuel Oil and Residual Bunker Demand (2010-2035) Figure X.12: Average Market Octane and Refinery Production (2012-2035) Figure X.13: Renewable Fuels and GTL/CTL Supplies Market (2012-2035) Figure X.14: Gasoline-to-Distillate Production Ratio (2010-2035) Figure X.15: Downstream Refining Capacity (2010-2035) Figure X.16: Incremental Hydrogen Production Requirements (2013-2035) Figure X.17: Incremental Sulfur Recovery Requirements (2013-2035)
© 2013 Hart Energy. All rights reserved.
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