greenreport 0h0p17
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: September 27, 2017
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 39: September 12 – September 25, 2017
GREENNESS VALUES Low Biomass
4 2 3 1
High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
1) Beneficial Moisture for the Previously Parched Western High Plains. There was great news last week for farmers from west Texas north into Nebraska as tropical moisture surged along a slow-moving cold front. Days of heavy rain with 1 to 3 inches common across the region (see 7-day totals, lower right) likely led to some harvest delays. But the rain also provided a significant improvement to soil moisture that will help to accelerate winter wheat planting in the area which has been running behind schedule due to the very dry soils. 2) Tracking the Slow March to Maturity. Despite the summer-like conditions of the prior week, we continue to see evidence of slower than normal crop development. The dark green signature is indicative of healthy biomass but also is a sign that crops are delayed in their development. USDA’s latest Crop Progress Bulletin (dated 7- DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION September 27-October 4, 2017
September 25, 2017) bears that out, particularly for Corn. Double-digit maturity deficits are reported against the 5-year average, some quite impressive, including: South Dakota (32% vs. 57% avg), North Dakota (30% vs. 48% avg), Minnesota (33% vs. 54% avg), Wisconsin (23% vs. 44% avg), Illinois (57% vs. 77% avg), Indiana (54% vs. 65% avg), and Iowa (52% vs. 63% avg). After a brief cool-down, higher temperatures and humidity return next week and should keep any killing freeze at bay and extend development.
month. Corn and Soybean health is being reported below the national average in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Little, if any, moisture is expected in the short term, exacerbating the negative trend. 4) Improving Fortunes in the Northwest. Recent storms have helped alleviate the drought and replenish soils. Mountain snow occurred in the Northern Rockies, always a good development this early. More rain and mountain snow is on the way for next week.
3) Drier Trend in Eastern Regions Affecting Crop Health. While beneficial moisture came to the Plains, it has been a rather dry stretch for growing areas east of the Mississippi over the past couple of weeks with most receiving less than 25% of normal moisture. Many along the East Coast have not experienced any rain since the passage of Hurricane Irma earlier this
Seven Day Forecast After a week of scorching temperatures in the Midwest and East, a cold frontal passage is expected to bring cooler temperatures to end the week and continue through the weekend. Daytime highs will be in the 60s and 70s, closer to normal. While the interior West will remain near to slightly cooler than normal, the West Coast will heat up again. However, as we get into next week, expect above normal heat and humidity to return to the eastern half of the U.S., the warmest anomalies from the Corn Belt into the Southeast. Crops will again get a needed ‘heat units’ boost. The West will experience another cooler surge. Along with that cooler trend, expect the return of Pacific moisture next week from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. While not totally busting the drought, this will bode well for farmers and ranchers who have endured a very difficult season. California, however, will be dry. Much of Texas and the Western High Plains will continue to experience periods of showers, even some isolated thunderstorms—localized flooding is possible and fieldwork delays are likely. However, outside of tropical moisture in Florida most eastern regions are likely to remain on the dry side. With the return of above normal heat next week, crop stress may be on the increase. Weather for harvest and other field operations should be very good.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 39: September 12 – September 25, 2017 COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Last Week
Compared to Normal
Areas of scattered Greenness decreases are noted across a good portion of the Corn Belt states. Much warmer temperatures with highs in the 80s and low 90s this past week appear to have accelerated the senescence of summer crops. After a brief cool-down the next few days, expect above normal warmth to return which should allow crops to continue to mature prior to a killing freeze. The likelihood of that event occurring earlier than normal is very low in most areas. On the flip side, significant Greenness increases are noted across all of Florida and southern Georgia. It is no coincidence that this is the area that was inundated by floodwaters from Hurricane Irma. Biomass has come back as floodwaters have receded. Unfortunately, more rain is on the way for soaked Florida in the coming week so some spots may have to deal with flooding again. Greenness increases are also noted in the Mid-Atlantic region which is interesting given the hot and dry week experienced there. However, soil moisture is in good shape overall and crops are being reported healthier than normal. In the West, a cooler, wetter week has brought some Greenness improvement for some areas – although much more moisture is needed. After a warm-up into early next week, expect another cooler surge and more storms across the Northwest which should improve the droughty situation there.
Against our 28-year average of Greenness (NDVI) data, current Greenness trends remain very regional with little change in overall trends. Greenness levels remain considerably higher than typical across all of the Corn Belt states, particularly the Western Corn Belt. This tells us 2 things: 1) Summer crops are generally healthy given an overall lack of heat-related stress and plentiful moisture and 2) despite two weeks of very warm temperatures, crop development is still running behind schedule for most. A cold front crossing the region from west to east over the next couple of days will bring more beneficial rain and will cool temperatures back toward normal. This will be short-lived, however, as a warmer trend is likely later next week. Increased Greenness remains in place for the Southern Plains and Delta, reflecting healthy crops. More wet weather is on tap for Texas in the coming days, ensuring a good finish. Despite a week of cooler, wet conditions, Greenness challenges remain firmly in place across the West. Soils are considerably depleted and crops, turf and grasses are generally in distress as a result.
Produced in collaboration with our partners at TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc., this Vegetation Condition Map is based on input from current satellite NDVI composites, combined with 28-year maximum and minimum temperature values. The model takes the current NDVI and Temp values and compares them to the historic data to illustrate current conditions where: Higher Temps and Lower NDVI values = Stress Conditions Lower Temps and Higher NDVI values = Good Conditions © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 39: September 12 – September 25, 2017
GREENNESS VALUES Low Biomass
4 2 3 1
High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
1) Beneficial Moisture for the Previously Parched Western High Plains. There was great news last week for farmers from west Texas north into Nebraska as tropical moisture surged along a slow-moving cold front. Days of heavy rain with 1 to 3 inches common across the region (see 7-day totals, lower right) likely led to some harvest delays. But the rain also provided a significant improvement to soil moisture that will help to accelerate winter wheat planting in the area which has been running behind schedule due to the very dry soils. 2) Tracking the Slow March to Maturity. Despite the summer-like conditions of the prior week, we continue to see evidence of slower than normal crop development. The dark green signature is indicative of healthy biomass but also is a sign that crops are delayed in their development. USDA’s latest Crop Progress Bulletin (dated 7- DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION September 27-October 4, 2017
September 25, 2017) bears that out, particularly for Corn. Double-digit maturity deficits are reported against the 5-year average, some quite impressive, including: South Dakota (32% vs. 57% avg), North Dakota (30% vs. 48% avg), Minnesota (33% vs. 54% avg), Wisconsin (23% vs. 44% avg), Illinois (57% vs. 77% avg), Indiana (54% vs. 65% avg), and Iowa (52% vs. 63% avg). After a brief cool-down, higher temperatures and humidity return next week and should keep any killing freeze at bay and extend development.
month. Corn and Soybean health is being reported below the national average in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Little, if any, moisture is expected in the short term, exacerbating the negative trend. 4) Improving Fortunes in the Northwest. Recent storms have helped alleviate the drought and replenish soils. Mountain snow occurred in the Northern Rockies, always a good development this early. More rain and mountain snow is on the way for next week.
3) Drier Trend in Eastern Regions Affecting Crop Health. While beneficial moisture came to the Plains, it has been a rather dry stretch for growing areas east of the Mississippi over the past couple of weeks with most receiving less than 25% of normal moisture. Many along the East Coast have not experienced any rain since the passage of Hurricane Irma earlier this
Seven Day Forecast After a week of scorching temperatures in the Midwest and East, a cold frontal passage is expected to bring cooler temperatures to end the week and continue through the weekend. Daytime highs will be in the 60s and 70s, closer to normal. While the interior West will remain near to slightly cooler than normal, the West Coast will heat up again. However, as we get into next week, expect above normal heat and humidity to return to the eastern half of the U.S., the warmest anomalies from the Corn Belt into the Southeast. Crops will again get a needed ‘heat units’ boost. The West will experience another cooler surge. Along with that cooler trend, expect the return of Pacific moisture next week from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. While not totally busting the drought, this will bode well for farmers and ranchers who have endured a very difficult season. California, however, will be dry. Much of Texas and the Western High Plains will continue to experience periods of showers, even some isolated thunderstorms—localized flooding is possible and fieldwork delays are likely. However, outside of tropical moisture in Florida most eastern regions are likely to remain on the dry side. With the return of above normal heat next week, crop stress may be on the increase. Weather for harvest and other field operations should be very good.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 39: September 12 – September 25, 2017 COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Last Week
Compared to Normal
Areas of scattered Greenness decreases are noted across a good portion of the Corn Belt states. Much warmer temperatures with highs in the 80s and low 90s this past week appear to have accelerated the senescence of summer crops. After a brief cool-down the next few days, expect above normal warmth to return which should allow crops to continue to mature prior to a killing freeze. The likelihood of that event occurring earlier than normal is very low in most areas. On the flip side, significant Greenness increases are noted across all of Florida and southern Georgia. It is no coincidence that this is the area that was inundated by floodwaters from Hurricane Irma. Biomass has come back as floodwaters have receded. Unfortunately, more rain is on the way for soaked Florida in the coming week so some spots may have to deal with flooding again. Greenness increases are also noted in the Mid-Atlantic region which is interesting given the hot and dry week experienced there. However, soil moisture is in good shape overall and crops are being reported healthier than normal. In the West, a cooler, wetter week has brought some Greenness improvement for some areas – although much more moisture is needed. After a warm-up into early next week, expect another cooler surge and more storms across the Northwest which should improve the droughty situation there.
Against our 28-year average of Greenness (NDVI) data, current Greenness trends remain very regional with little change in overall trends. Greenness levels remain considerably higher than typical across all of the Corn Belt states, particularly the Western Corn Belt. This tells us 2 things: 1) Summer crops are generally healthy given an overall lack of heat-related stress and plentiful moisture and 2) despite two weeks of very warm temperatures, crop development is still running behind schedule for most. A cold front crossing the region from west to east over the next couple of days will bring more beneficial rain and will cool temperatures back toward normal. This will be short-lived, however, as a warmer trend is likely later next week. Increased Greenness remains in place for the Southern Plains and Delta, reflecting healthy crops. More wet weather is on tap for Texas in the coming days, ensuring a good finish. Despite a week of cooler, wet conditions, Greenness challenges remain firmly in place across the West. Soils are considerably depleted and crops, turf and grasses are generally in distress as a result.
Produced in collaboration with our partners at TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc., this Vegetation Condition Map is based on input from current satellite NDVI composites, combined with 28-year maximum and minimum temperature values. The model takes the current NDVI and Temp values and compares them to the historic data to illustrate current conditions where: Higher Temps and Lower NDVI values = Stress Conditions Lower Temps and Higher NDVI values = Good Conditions © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
