Planalytics GreenReport 06142017
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: June 14, 2017
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 24: May 30 – June 12, 2017
GREENNESS VALUES Low Biomass
1 5
2
4
3 High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
1) In the Western Corn Belt states, Greenness is evident but appears uneven across the region. Weeks of very dry conditions combined with recent heat have taken a toll on early season growth. Biomass levels are particularly low across eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and southern Minnesota; this broad area has had less than 10% of normal moisture from the start of June. Reports of crop health issues are increasing. (See page 2 for changes vs. last year and vs. normal) 2) Greenness challenges are extending further east across the ‘I-states’ as well. A spring of surplus moisture that led to increased replanting in May has given way to a very dry trend in June. Not only are emergence rates of corn and soybeans behind normal, crop health is lagging as well. For corn, “Poor to Very Poor “ratings in South Dakota (18% P-VP), Indiana (20% 7 DAY FORECAST RAINFALL ACCUMULATION June 14– June 21, 2017
P-VP), and Illinois (14% P-VP) compare to 6% P-VP nationally. A wetter trend is expected for the week ahead, however. 3) In the Missouri Valley and Delta regions, a strong biomass signature remains in place. While southwest Missouri is still reporting issues with Soybean planting progress, it is clear that the excessive moisture this spring has had a beneficial impact on all forms of plant life. The southern Missouri - northern Arkansas region was the epicenter of the flooding rainfall that occurred several weeks ago and is testament to the benefit of having excess soil moisture coming into the heart of the growing season. Emergence pace is accelerated and crop health levels are very robust. 4) The Appalachian region is also reaping the benefits of a wetter spring with very
high Greenness levels evident across this broad area. While the majority of this would be associated with deciduous plants and turf, we would extend that to farmland as well. Crops are very healthy in the region. For example, in Pennsylvania 84% of its corn crop is reported Good to Excellent, easily exceeding the 67% national average. More wetness is on tap in the near term. 5) Western Region Greenness is evident but appears ‘patchy’. A winter of excess moisture has given way to a very dry trend much of the spring resulting in a gradual decrease in biomass levels. There is growing concern regarding a potential return to drought given the continuation of dry weather and the start of what will be very hot conditions for the remainder of June. Temperatures could reach well into the 100s at times in the California valleys.
Seven Day Forecast The summerlike heat is expected to continue in the Corn Belt states for the remainder of the work week with highs in the low to mid 90s and mid to upper 90s further south. However, a cooler surge that began in the West will traverse the region west to east beginning this weekend dropping temperatures closer to normal. Meanwhile, the heat will build in the West with daytime highs in the 90s with 100s (and some 110s) in the California Valleys and Desert Southwest. While scattered storms are possible at times through Saturday in the parched Northern Plains, conditions will turn much drier again as we head into next week. The best chance for moisture will be in regions east of the Mississippi River as most days will feature the chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of those containing large hail and high winds. This will include Florida and the Southeast which will continue to improve upon their drought status. Fieldwork could be delayed in the wettest areas. California and most of the West will remain dry.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 24: May 30 – June 12, 2017 COMPARED TO LAST YEAR
COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Last Year
Compared to Normal
Greenness challenges are noted in a couple of key areas this year compared to last. Starting in the Western Corn Belt states, concerns are mounting given the very dry trend of late. Soils are depleted, drought is increasing, and now the Greenness deficits are quite notable as a result. The ‘anchor’ of the strongest biomass deficits had been in the Dakotas, but is now extending south and east through Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Illinois. While showers are in the current forecast, this area will remain a concern in the short term.
Against our 28-year average of Greenness (NDVI) data as our “normal”, we note the following this week:
Looking south to Texas and the Western High Plains, the wheat harvest is continuing to accelerate, particularly in Kansas. This is one reason for the biomass change. However, we conjecture that the wheat crop is relatively less healthy this year, having been challenged by periods of either too little or too much rain. This is also an area where planting and emergence delays of corn, sorghum, and other spring crops were reported, lagging last year’s very strong pace. There is better news overall in the Delta and Missouri Valley states this year given all of the moisture seen this spring. Despite periods of flooding and areas where crops had to be replanted, Greenness trends vs. last year are robust. That more robust biomass trend also extends into the Eastern Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. While there have been fieldwork challenges this spring given cool, wet periods, it has clearly been more beneficial against last year’s droughty trend. While drier conditions have been the rule for most of the Western Corn Belt, CB, eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin continue to benefit from periods of heavy rain. This past winter’s excess moisture in the West is beginning to reap dividends as evidenced by increased Greenness, particularly in California and the Southwest. This is despite what has been a relatively dry trend for the region. A cooler spring in the Northwest has resulted in less accelerated winter wheat and spring crops. © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Greenness deficits are quite evident in the heart of the Western Corn Belt, compelling evidence that the hot and dry conditions of the past few weeks have been having an increasingly negative impact on spring crops. While challenges are being felt from Nebraska to Indiana, South Dakota appears to be the epicenter of the troubles. Crop health is lagging considerably in the state as reported in the latest USDA/NASS Crop Progress report. Fully 46% of the Winter Wheat crop is being reported as ‘Poor-Very Poor’ (P-VP), far outpacing the 16% avg. Sorghum is at 33% P-VP, Corn at 18% P-VP, and Soybeans at 15% P-VP, all well above the avg. While some moisture has occurred in the past week, troubles are likely to mount. However, an overall increased Greenness trend suggests that most other growing areas are reaping the benefit of a season of adequate to excess moisture, particularly across the Delta states and extending north and east into the Mid-Atlantic region. Although ‘Cloud Affected’, the Southeast region is seeing very good drought relief which will bode very well as we enter the heart of the growing season. More rainfall in the short term will ensure continued improvement. While lagging last year, Greenness levels vs. normal are looking robust in western Kansas. A periodically wet spring has given the winter wheat crop what it needs for a good finish. An increased biomass signature is also evident in the Northern Rockies, an area that has seen record snowpack and above normal wetness through the spring. Deciduous and grassland areas are clearly more healthy as a result. Much of California and the Southwest, after a winter of excess moisture, have become quite dry through the spring which is taking a toll on biomass. We still note a late season snowpack in the Sierras. Good news as spring runoffs have been and will continue to be tremendous in the coming weeks. www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 24: May 30 – June 12, 2017
GREENNESS VALUES Low Biomass
1 5
2
4
3 High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
1) In the Western Corn Belt states, Greenness is evident but appears uneven across the region. Weeks of very dry conditions combined with recent heat have taken a toll on early season growth. Biomass levels are particularly low across eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and southern Minnesota; this broad area has had less than 10% of normal moisture from the start of June. Reports of crop health issues are increasing. (See page 2 for changes vs. last year and vs. normal) 2) Greenness challenges are extending further east across the ‘I-states’ as well. A spring of surplus moisture that led to increased replanting in May has given way to a very dry trend in June. Not only are emergence rates of corn and soybeans behind normal, crop health is lagging as well. For corn, “Poor to Very Poor “ratings in South Dakota (18% P-VP), Indiana (20% 7 DAY FORECAST RAINFALL ACCUMULATION June 14– June 21, 2017
P-VP), and Illinois (14% P-VP) compare to 6% P-VP nationally. A wetter trend is expected for the week ahead, however. 3) In the Missouri Valley and Delta regions, a strong biomass signature remains in place. While southwest Missouri is still reporting issues with Soybean planting progress, it is clear that the excessive moisture this spring has had a beneficial impact on all forms of plant life. The southern Missouri - northern Arkansas region was the epicenter of the flooding rainfall that occurred several weeks ago and is testament to the benefit of having excess soil moisture coming into the heart of the growing season. Emergence pace is accelerated and crop health levels are very robust. 4) The Appalachian region is also reaping the benefits of a wetter spring with very
high Greenness levels evident across this broad area. While the majority of this would be associated with deciduous plants and turf, we would extend that to farmland as well. Crops are very healthy in the region. For example, in Pennsylvania 84% of its corn crop is reported Good to Excellent, easily exceeding the 67% national average. More wetness is on tap in the near term. 5) Western Region Greenness is evident but appears ‘patchy’. A winter of excess moisture has given way to a very dry trend much of the spring resulting in a gradual decrease in biomass levels. There is growing concern regarding a potential return to drought given the continuation of dry weather and the start of what will be very hot conditions for the remainder of June. Temperatures could reach well into the 100s at times in the California valleys.
Seven Day Forecast The summerlike heat is expected to continue in the Corn Belt states for the remainder of the work week with highs in the low to mid 90s and mid to upper 90s further south. However, a cooler surge that began in the West will traverse the region west to east beginning this weekend dropping temperatures closer to normal. Meanwhile, the heat will build in the West with daytime highs in the 90s with 100s (and some 110s) in the California Valleys and Desert Southwest. While scattered storms are possible at times through Saturday in the parched Northern Plains, conditions will turn much drier again as we head into next week. The best chance for moisture will be in regions east of the Mississippi River as most days will feature the chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of those containing large hail and high winds. This will include Florida and the Southeast which will continue to improve upon their drought status. Fieldwork could be delayed in the wettest areas. California and most of the West will remain dry.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 24: May 30 – June 12, 2017 COMPARED TO LAST YEAR
COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Last Year
Compared to Normal
Greenness challenges are noted in a couple of key areas this year compared to last. Starting in the Western Corn Belt states, concerns are mounting given the very dry trend of late. Soils are depleted, drought is increasing, and now the Greenness deficits are quite notable as a result. The ‘anchor’ of the strongest biomass deficits had been in the Dakotas, but is now extending south and east through Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Illinois. While showers are in the current forecast, this area will remain a concern in the short term.
Against our 28-year average of Greenness (NDVI) data as our “normal”, we note the following this week:
Looking south to Texas and the Western High Plains, the wheat harvest is continuing to accelerate, particularly in Kansas. This is one reason for the biomass change. However, we conjecture that the wheat crop is relatively less healthy this year, having been challenged by periods of either too little or too much rain. This is also an area where planting and emergence delays of corn, sorghum, and other spring crops were reported, lagging last year’s very strong pace. There is better news overall in the Delta and Missouri Valley states this year given all of the moisture seen this spring. Despite periods of flooding and areas where crops had to be replanted, Greenness trends vs. last year are robust. That more robust biomass trend also extends into the Eastern Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. While there have been fieldwork challenges this spring given cool, wet periods, it has clearly been more beneficial against last year’s droughty trend. While drier conditions have been the rule for most of the Western Corn Belt, CB, eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin continue to benefit from periods of heavy rain. This past winter’s excess moisture in the West is beginning to reap dividends as evidenced by increased Greenness, particularly in California and the Southwest. This is despite what has been a relatively dry trend for the region. A cooler spring in the Northwest has resulted in less accelerated winter wheat and spring crops. © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Greenness deficits are quite evident in the heart of the Western Corn Belt, compelling evidence that the hot and dry conditions of the past few weeks have been having an increasingly negative impact on spring crops. While challenges are being felt from Nebraska to Indiana, South Dakota appears to be the epicenter of the troubles. Crop health is lagging considerably in the state as reported in the latest USDA/NASS Crop Progress report. Fully 46% of the Winter Wheat crop is being reported as ‘Poor-Very Poor’ (P-VP), far outpacing the 16% avg. Sorghum is at 33% P-VP, Corn at 18% P-VP, and Soybeans at 15% P-VP, all well above the avg. While some moisture has occurred in the past week, troubles are likely to mount. However, an overall increased Greenness trend suggests that most other growing areas are reaping the benefit of a season of adequate to excess moisture, particularly across the Delta states and extending north and east into the Mid-Atlantic region. Although ‘Cloud Affected’, the Southeast region is seeing very good drought relief which will bode very well as we enter the heart of the growing season. More rainfall in the short term will ensure continued improvement. While lagging last year, Greenness levels vs. normal are looking robust in western Kansas. A periodically wet spring has given the winter wheat crop what it needs for a good finish. An increased biomass signature is also evident in the Northern Rockies, an area that has seen record snowpack and above normal wetness through the spring. Deciduous and grassland areas are clearly more healthy as a result. Much of California and the Southwest, after a winter of excess moisture, have become quite dry through the spring which is taking a toll on biomass. We still note a late season snowpack in the Sierras. Good news as spring runoffs have been and will continue to be tremendous in the coming weeks. www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
