Housing Market Snapshot

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Housing Market Snapshot Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011

Market Tracker *Arrows = Current Qtr Trend

Unemployment Rate

Single Family Permits

Trust Deed Sales Maricopa County Only

Notices of Trust Deed Sales Maricopa County Only

0.2%

4,080

272

1,167

Phoenix metro housing industry starting to show signs of a slow recovery moving forward in 2011. PHOENIX LAND

Detached New Home Median Price DETACHED NEW HOME MEDIAN PRICE: Quarterly-Maricopa County County QuarterlyMaricopa

(1)

(1)

March 2011 Statistics Phoenix $212,813

325,000 300,000 275,000 250 000 250, 225,000 200 200, 000 175,000

Since the collapse of 2008 where home resale median prices dropped significantly, home resale prices have remained relatively flat for much of the past three years throughout Maricopa County. The resale median home price of $109,996 continued this trend for the first quarter 2011 where it was down slightly compared to the fourth quarter 2010 average of $115,083(2). The detached new home price for the first quarter 2011 dropped for the second straight quarter to $221,587(1). Single Family permits increased 272 permits from the 4th quarter 2010 to 1st quarter 2011 but continue to struggle overall with an YTD 2010 comparison showing a decrease of 38 percent according to the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona.

150,000 125,000 1Q03

1Q04

1Q05

1Q06

1Q07

1Q08

1Q09

Resale Home Median Price

1Q10

1Q11

(2)

Per Month

(2)

Resale Home Median Price Per Month

300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

Jan Feb Mar

2006

Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2007

2008

2009

Quarterly Home Closings

2010

2011

(3)

Maricopa County Quarterly Home Closings –Maricopa County 60,000 ,

50,000

40,000

30, 30 000

20,000

10,000

0

H Home R S les Re-Sa

New H Home Cl os ings

(3)

The high number of foreclosures continues to remain a key concern for Maricopa County housing industry. Notices of trustee sales were down for the second straight quarter, as well as compared to first quarter 2010. Actual trust deed sales increased over 4,000 from the previous 4th quarter 2010(1). Upon comparing trust deed sales to the first quarter 2010, the decrease isn’t as large with a difference of 510 trust deed sales(1). The drop in pending foreclosures does offer some signs of improvement, but Phoenix is still facing a long, slow recovery process in terms of foreclosures. The results of the 2010 US Census results showed that Phoenix metro grew over 28 percent from 2000 to 2010, but the last two years were slow in terms of growth falling under 2 percent growth valleywide. Overall Phoenix just missed landing in the top 5 largest cities in the United States. The West Valley saw the largest increase when looking at the metro growth area in the last 10 years. A few positive signs were Pinal County, which is included in the Phoenix metro for measuring purposes, more than doubled in size according to the 2010 census. Maricopa County is now the fourth largest county in the nation, but as a whole Phoenix’s population was actually lower than projected. In fact, the state of Arizona’s population projection for 2010 was the biggest miss of all projections for the entire country at 4 percent off of earlier census projections. Population for 2011 is projected to remain relatively flat with a slight increase according to the First Quarter 2011 Phoenix Blue Chip Economic Forecast. Net Migration continues to be concern as well, but should experience a slight improvement moving forward in 2011. Unemployment rate for the Phoenix metro continues to show signs of improvement as we move forward in 2011. While unemployment rate increased slightly by 0.2 percent from the 4th quarter 2010, it was down 0.8 percent from 1st quarter 2010. www.cassidyturley.com

Cassidy Turley Housing Market Snapshot Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011

Metro Phoenix Non-Farm Employment

(6)(7)

(In Thousands)

Metro Phoenix Construction Employment

(6)(7)

(In Thousands) ment thro gh March 2011 has o tperformed Nonfarm emplo employment through outperformed Eller’s 1st Qtr 2011 forecasted numbers. Nonfarm Employment has increased 0.5% over the past 12 months through March.

2,100 2,000

200

1,900

160

1,800

140

1,700

120

, 1,600

100

1,500

80

1,400

60

1 300 1,300

40

1,200

20

1,100

Although March 2011 construction employment was currently down -3.1% over the past 12 months, the month of March saw an added 1,600 construction jobs

180

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year End Numbers –U.S. Dept. of Labor

Projected Growth-Eller College of Mgmt. 1Q11

March 2011-U.S. Dept of Labor

994 19 19 995 19 996 19 997 19 998 19 999 20 000 20 001 20 002 20 003 20 004 20 005 20 006 20 007 20 008 20 009 20 010 20 011 20 012 20 013 20 014 20 015 20 016

0

1 000 1,000

Year End Numbers –U.S. Dept. of Labor March 2011--U.S. Dept. of Labor

Comparing States: Unemployment Rates State Unemployment %: March 2011 (Seasonally adjusted in thousands) U.S. Average (0.9% decrease Comparative State:8.8% Unemployment Rates from March 2010) State Unemployment % - March 2011 (Seasonally adjusted in thousands) U.S. Average 8.8% (0.9% decrease from March 2010)

9.5% 9.4% 9.6 9.4% 9.5% 9.5%

Projected Growth-Eller College of Mgmt. 1Q11 Forecast

Comparing Markets: Affordability

Cassidy Turley Housing Market Snapshot

Percentage of new and existing homes that were sold during the 4th quarter of 2010 that were affordable to Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011 families earning the area’s median income.

Comparing Market Affordability(10)

Seattle 65.9%

Percentage of new and existing homes that were sold during the 4th quarter of 2010 that were affordable to families earning the area’s median income

Portland 69.3%

San Francisco 31.5%

Reno 86.1%

Chicago 70.1%

Salt Lake 78.1%

Denver 76.1%

Las Vegas 82.8%

Los Angeles 42.9%

Phoenix 83.4%

San Diego 51.7%

Albuquerque Alb 82.3%

Tucson 84.3% Dallas 68.0% San Antonio 70.1%

Houston 72.5%

Median Priceofof Existing Single Family (9) Median Sales Sales Price Existing Single Family HomesHomes 2010 4th Quarter 4th Quarter 2010

Source: National Association All Active Home Listings (2) of Home Builders

All Active Home Listings

(2)

San Francisco

60,000

San Diego Los Angeles

50,000

S Seattle Portland Denver

40,000

Salt Lake City Chicago g Albuquerque

30,000

Reno U.S. Average

20,000

Houston San Antonio Tucson

10,000

Dallas Las Vegas

0

Greater Phoenix Ja n Ma -03 r Ma -03 yJu 03 l Se -03 pNo 03 v Ja -0 3 nMa 04 r Ma -04 yJu 04 Se l-04 pDe 04 c Fe -04 b Ap -05 r Ju -05 n Au -05 gO c 05 t De -05 c Fe -05 b Ap -06 r Ju -06 n Au -06 gO c 06 t De -06 c Fe -06 b Ap -07 Ju r-07 ne Au -07 gO c 07 t De -07 c Fe -07 b-0 Ap 8 r-0 Ju 8 n Au -08 gO c 08 De t-08 c Fe -08 b-0 Ap 9 r Ju -09 n Au -09 gO c 09 t De -09 c Fe -09 b Ap -10 r-1 Ju 0 n Au -10 gO c 10 t De -10 c Fe -10 b-1 1

Tampa

g y, townhomes,, and manufactured homes Includes all single-family,

--------- Normal Market Conditions Source: ARMLS

Source: National Association of Realtors

© Copyright 2011 Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial.

Maricopa County Foreclosures

(1)

Maricopa County Quarterly Foreclosures Quarterly

(1)

11

(4) Metro Phoenix Single Phoenix Metro Family Single Family Building Permits Building Permits

30000

70,000

25000

60,000

YTD number of permits through March 2011 is currently 1,509 permits (4).

50,000

20000

40,000 15000

30,000

10000

20,000

5000

10 000 10,000 0

0 1st Qtr 07

3rd Qtr 07

1st Qtr 08

3rd Qtr 08

1st Qtr 09

3rd Qtr 09

1st Qtr 10

Notice of trustee sale, precursor to foreclosure

3rd Qtr 10

1st Qtr 11

Trust Deed Sales Historical-Home Builders Association of Central Arizona

Projected-Eller College of Management 1Q11 Forecast

Source: The Information Market per The Cromford Report

© Copyright 2010 Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial.

13

Source: 1988-2010-Home Builders Association of Central Arizona, 2011-2016 Eller College of Management 1Q11 Forecast, University of Arizona

© Copyright 2011 Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial.

14

Cassidy Turley Housing Market Snapshot Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1Q 2011

2012

Population Growth Blue Chip Consensus (Approx Total) Eller

3.20%

3.40%

3.70%

3.30%

2.00%

1.40%

1.50%

1.50%

1.90%

113,000

122,900

133,682

123,403

96,292

55,272

60,049

60,949

78,360

3,495,000

3,606,800

3,739,488

3,851,673

3,947,964

4,003,236

4,063,284

4,124,233

4,202,593

2.8%

1.8%

0.2%

0.5%

1.0%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

116,000

76,800

8,300

19,900

45,900

4,281,900

4,364,100

4,372,400

4,392,300

4,438,100

(5)

(6)

(Approx Total) Employment Growth Blue Chip Consensus (Approx Total) Eller

3.4%

4.4%

6.0%

1.0%

-0.6%

-5.4%

-0.6%

1.7%

2.8%

53,600

71,700

71,729

18,360

-11,112

-99,535

-10,462

29,465

49,355

1,630,200

1,701,900

1,836,000

1,854,360

1,843,234

1,743,699

1,733,237

1,762,702

1,812,057

-2.5%

-7.8%

-1.6%

0.8%

1.9%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

-47,000

-145,000

-27,500

13,300

32,400

1,867,800

1,720,400

1,692,800

1,706,100

1,738,500

(5)

(6)

(Approx Total) Income Growth 9.4%

10.9%

9.7%

4.3%

2.3%

-3.5%

2.5%

3.5%

3.7%

86,273

122,119

121,465

84,239

68,092

36,475

-26,700

-14,300

10,100

61,754

58,760

40,048

29,388

13,242

8,388

7,110

1,509

United States

5.5%

5.1%

4.6%

4.6%

5.8%

9.3%

9.6%

8.8%

Phoenix Metro

4.5%

4.1%

3.6%

3.3%

5.2%

9.1%

9.2%

8.7%

Eller

(6)

Net Migration Eller

(6)

Single Family Home Permits

(4)

Unemployment Rate (7)

Sources: (1) The Information Market per The Cromford Report (2) ARMLS (3) The Information Market per The Cromford Report (Includes: Single Family Detached, Townhomes,& Condos) (4) Home Builders Association of Central Arizona (5) Blue Chip Consensus

(6) Eller College of Management 1Q 11 Forecast, The University of Arizona (7) US Dept. of Labor - BLS Report, State of Arizona Research Center (March 2011) (8) State & Regional Employment U.S. Department of Labor (9) National Association of Realtors (10) National Association of Home Builders

About Cassidy Turley Cassidy Turley is a leading commercial real estate services provider with over 3,000 professionals in 60 offices nationwide. The firm completed transactions valued over $17 billion in 2010, manages over 430 million square feet on behalf of private, institutional and corporate clients and supports over 25,700 domestic corporate services locations. Cassidy Turley serves owners, investors and occupiers with a full spectrum of integrated commercial real estate services—including capital markets, corporate services, project leasing, property management, project and development services, and tenant representation. Outside of North America, Cassidy Turley has served the international needs of its clients since 1985. In 2010, the firm enhanced its global service delivery through its partnership with GVA. The firm recently ranked in the Top 10 on the Lipsey Co.’s Commercial Real Estate Top Brands Survey, and was ranked #1 by Real Estate Alert for Office Sales in 3 of the Top 6 Markets. Please visit www.cassidyturley.com for more information about the company.

Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial

Prepared by:

2375 E. Camelback Road, Suite 300 Phoenix, AZ, 85016 ph: 602.954.9000 | fx: 602.468.8588 www.brephoenix.com

Chris Jantz Vice President Research 602.224.4485 [email protected]

Zach Aulick Senior Research Analyst 602.468.8521 [email protected]

Ambri Bizek Research Analyst 602.468.8542 [email protected]

Bobby Szeto Research Analyst 602.468.8583 [email protected]

The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. Copyright © 2011 Cassidy Turley. All rights reserved.

Jerad Silver Research Analyst 602.468.8571 [email protected]