Housing Market Snapshot Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011
Market Tracker *Arrows = Current Qtr Trend
Unemployment Rate
Single Family Permits
Trust Deed Sales Maricopa County Only
Notices of Trust Deed Sales Maricopa County Only
0.2%
4,080
272
1,167
Phoenix metro housing industry starting to show signs of a slow recovery moving forward in 2011. PHOENIX LAND
Detached New Home Median Price DETACHED NEW HOME MEDIAN PRICE: Quarterly-Maricopa County County QuarterlyMaricopa
(1)
(1)
March 2011 Statistics Phoenix $212,813
325,000 300,000 275,000 250 000 250, 225,000 200 200, 000 175,000
Since the collapse of 2008 where home resale median prices dropped significantly, home resale prices have remained relatively flat for much of the past three years throughout Maricopa County. The resale median home price of $109,996 continued this trend for the first quarter 2011 where it was down slightly compared to the fourth quarter 2010 average of $115,083(2). The detached new home price for the first quarter 2011 dropped for the second straight quarter to $221,587(1). Single Family permits increased 272 permits from the 4th quarter 2010 to 1st quarter 2011 but continue to struggle overall with an YTD 2010 comparison showing a decrease of 38 percent according to the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona.
150,000 125,000 1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
Resale Home Median Price
1Q10
1Q11
(2)
Per Month
(2)
Resale Home Median Price Per Month
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Jan Feb Mar
2006
Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2007
2008
2009
Quarterly Home Closings
2010
2011
(3)
Maricopa County Quarterly Home Closings –Maricopa County 60,000 ,
50,000
40,000
30, 30 000
20,000
10,000
0
H Home R S les Re-Sa
New H Home Cl os ings
(3)
The high number of foreclosures continues to remain a key concern for Maricopa County housing industry. Notices of trustee sales were down for the second straight quarter, as well as compared to first quarter 2010. Actual trust deed sales increased over 4,000 from the previous 4th quarter 2010(1). Upon comparing trust deed sales to the first quarter 2010, the decrease isn’t as large with a difference of 510 trust deed sales(1). The drop in pending foreclosures does offer some signs of improvement, but Phoenix is still facing a long, slow recovery process in terms of foreclosures. The results of the 2010 US Census results showed that Phoenix metro grew over 28 percent from 2000 to 2010, but the last two years were slow in terms of growth falling under 2 percent growth valleywide. Overall Phoenix just missed landing in the top 5 largest cities in the United States. The West Valley saw the largest increase when looking at the metro growth area in the last 10 years. A few positive signs were Pinal County, which is included in the Phoenix metro for measuring purposes, more than doubled in size according to the 2010 census. Maricopa County is now the fourth largest county in the nation, but as a whole Phoenix’s population was actually lower than projected. In fact, the state of Arizona’s population projection for 2010 was the biggest miss of all projections for the entire country at 4 percent off of earlier census projections. Population for 2011 is projected to remain relatively flat with a slight increase according to the First Quarter 2011 Phoenix Blue Chip Economic Forecast. Net Migration continues to be concern as well, but should experience a slight improvement moving forward in 2011. Unemployment rate for the Phoenix metro continues to show signs of improvement as we move forward in 2011. While unemployment rate increased slightly by 0.2 percent from the 4th quarter 2010, it was down 0.8 percent from 1st quarter 2010. www.cassidyturley.com
Cassidy Turley Housing Market Snapshot Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011
Metro Phoenix Non-Farm Employment
(6)(7)
(In Thousands)
Metro Phoenix Construction Employment
(6)(7)
(In Thousands) ment thro gh March 2011 has o tperformed Nonfarm emplo employment through outperformed Eller’s 1st Qtr 2011 forecasted numbers. Nonfarm Employment has increased 0.5% over the past 12 months through March.
2,100 2,000
200
1,900
160
1,800
140
1,700
120
, 1,600
100
1,500
80
1,400
60
1 300 1,300
40
1,200
20
1,100
Although March 2011 construction employment was currently down -3.1% over the past 12 months, the month of March saw an added 1,600 construction jobs
180
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year End Numbers –U.S. Dept. of Labor
Projected Growth-Eller College of Mgmt. 1Q11
March 2011-U.S. Dept of Labor
994 19 19 995 19 996 19 997 19 998 19 999 20 000 20 001 20 002 20 003 20 004 20 005 20 006 20 007 20 008 20 009 20 010 20 011 20 012 20 013 20 014 20 015 20 016
0
1 000 1,000
Year End Numbers –U.S. Dept. of Labor March 2011--U.S. Dept. of Labor
Comparing States: Unemployment Rates State Unemployment %: March 2011 (Seasonally adjusted in thousands) U.S. Average (0.9% decrease Comparative State:8.8% Unemployment Rates from March 2010) State Unemployment % - March 2011 (Seasonally adjusted in thousands) U.S. Average 8.8% (0.9% decrease from March 2010)
9.5% 9.4% 9.6 9.4% 9.5% 9.5%
Projected Growth-Eller College of Mgmt. 1Q11 Forecast
Comparing Markets: Affordability
Cassidy Turley Housing Market Snapshot
Percentage of new and existing homes that were sold during the 4th quarter of 2010 that were affordable to Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011 families earning the area’s median income.
Comparing Market Affordability(10)
Seattle 65.9%
Percentage of new and existing homes that were sold during the 4th quarter of 2010 that were affordable to families earning the area’s median income
Portland 69.3%
San Francisco 31.5%
Reno 86.1%
Chicago 70.1%
Salt Lake 78.1%
Denver 76.1%
Las Vegas 82.8%
Los Angeles 42.9%
Phoenix 83.4%
San Diego 51.7%
Albuquerque Alb 82.3%
Tucson 84.3% Dallas 68.0% San Antonio 70.1%
Houston 72.5%
Median Priceofof Existing Single Family (9) Median Sales Sales Price Existing Single Family HomesHomes 2010 4th Quarter 4th Quarter 2010
Source: National Association All Active Home Listings (2) of Home Builders
All Active Home Listings
(2)
San Francisco
60,000
San Diego Los Angeles
50,000
S Seattle Portland Denver
40,000
Salt Lake City Chicago g Albuquerque
30,000
Reno U.S. Average
20,000
Houston San Antonio Tucson
10,000
Dallas Las Vegas
0
Greater Phoenix Ja n Ma -03 r Ma -03 yJu 03 l Se -03 pNo 03 v Ja -0 3 nMa 04 r Ma -04 yJu 04 Se l-04 pDe 04 c Fe -04 b Ap -05 r Ju -05 n Au -05 gO c 05 t De -05 c Fe -05 b Ap -06 r Ju -06 n Au -06 gO c 06 t De -06 c Fe -06 b Ap -07 Ju r-07 ne Au -07 gO c 07 t De -07 c Fe -07 b-0 Ap 8 r-0 Ju 8 n Au -08 gO c 08 De t-08 c Fe -08 b-0 Ap 9 r Ju -09 n Au -09 gO c 09 t De -09 c Fe -09 b Ap -10 r-1 Ju 0 n Au -10 gO c 10 t De -10 c Fe -10 b-1 1
Tampa
g y, townhomes,, and manufactured homes Includes all single-family,
--------- Normal Market Conditions Source: ARMLS
Source: National Association of Realtors
© Copyright 2011 Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial.
Maricopa County Foreclosures
(1)
Maricopa County Quarterly Foreclosures Quarterly
(1)
11
(4) Metro Phoenix Single Phoenix Metro Family Single Family Building Permits Building Permits
30000
70,000
25000
60,000
YTD number of permits through March 2011 is currently 1,509 permits (4).
50,000
20000
40,000 15000
30,000
10000
20,000
5000
10 000 10,000 0
0 1st Qtr 07
3rd Qtr 07
1st Qtr 08
3rd Qtr 08
1st Qtr 09
3rd Qtr 09
1st Qtr 10
Notice of trustee sale, precursor to foreclosure
3rd Qtr 10
1st Qtr 11
Trust Deed Sales Historical-Home Builders Association of Central Arizona
Projected-Eller College of Management 1Q11 Forecast
Source: The Information Market per The Cromford Report
© Copyright 2010 Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial.
13
Source: 1988-2010-Home Builders Association of Central Arizona, 2011-2016 Eller College of Management 1Q11 Forecast, University of Arizona
© Copyright 2011 Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial.
14
Cassidy Turley Housing Market Snapshot Phoenix Land • First Quarter • 2011 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1Q 2011
2012
Population Growth Blue Chip Consensus (Approx Total) Eller
3.20%
3.40%
3.70%
3.30%
2.00%
1.40%
1.50%
1.50%
1.90%
113,000
122,900
133,682
123,403
96,292
55,272
60,049
60,949
78,360
3,495,000
3,606,800
3,739,488
3,851,673
3,947,964
4,003,236
4,063,284
4,124,233
4,202,593
2.8%
1.8%
0.2%
0.5%
1.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
116,000
76,800
8,300
19,900
45,900
4,281,900
4,364,100
4,372,400
4,392,300
4,438,100
(5)
(6)
(Approx Total) Employment Growth Blue Chip Consensus (Approx Total) Eller
3.4%
4.4%
6.0%
1.0%
-0.6%
-5.4%
-0.6%
1.7%
2.8%
53,600
71,700
71,729
18,360
-11,112
-99,535
-10,462
29,465
49,355
1,630,200
1,701,900
1,836,000
1,854,360
1,843,234
1,743,699
1,733,237
1,762,702
1,812,057
-2.5%
-7.8%
-1.6%
0.8%
1.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
-47,000
-145,000
-27,500
13,300
32,400
1,867,800
1,720,400
1,692,800
1,706,100
1,738,500
(5)
(6)
(Approx Total) Income Growth 9.4%
10.9%
9.7%
4.3%
2.3%
-3.5%
2.5%
3.5%
3.7%
86,273
122,119
121,465
84,239
68,092
36,475
-26,700
-14,300
10,100
61,754
58,760
40,048
29,388
13,242
8,388
7,110
1,509
United States
5.5%
5.1%
4.6%
4.6%
5.8%
9.3%
9.6%
8.8%
Phoenix Metro
4.5%
4.1%
3.6%
3.3%
5.2%
9.1%
9.2%
8.7%
Eller
(6)
Net Migration Eller
(6)
Single Family Home Permits
(4)
Unemployment Rate (7)
Sources: (1) The Information Market per The Cromford Report (2) ARMLS (3) The Information Market per The Cromford Report (Includes: Single Family Detached, Townhomes,& Condos) (4) Home Builders Association of Central Arizona (5) Blue Chip Consensus
(6) Eller College of Management 1Q 11 Forecast, The University of Arizona (7) US Dept. of Labor - BLS Report, State of Arizona Research Center (March 2011) (8) State & Regional Employment U.S. Department of Labor (9) National Association of Realtors (10) National Association of Home Builders
About Cassidy Turley Cassidy Turley is a leading commercial real estate services provider with over 3,000 professionals in 60 offices nationwide. The firm completed transactions valued over $17 billion in 2010, manages over 430 million square feet on behalf of private, institutional and corporate clients and supports over 25,700 domestic corporate services locations. Cassidy Turley serves owners, investors and occupiers with a full spectrum of integrated commercial real estate services—including capital markets, corporate services, project leasing, property management, project and development services, and tenant representation. Outside of North America, Cassidy Turley has served the international needs of its clients since 1985. In 2010, the firm enhanced its global service delivery through its partnership with GVA. The firm recently ranked in the Top 10 on the Lipsey Co.’s Commercial Real Estate Top Brands Survey, and was ranked #1 by Real Estate Alert for Office Sales in 3 of the Top 6 Markets. Please visit www.cassidyturley.com for more information about the company.
Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial
Prepared by:
2375 E. Camelback Road, Suite 300 Phoenix, AZ, 85016 ph: 602.954.9000 | fx: 602.468.8588 www.brephoenix.com
Chris Jantz Vice President Research 602.224.4485
[email protected] Zach Aulick Senior Research Analyst 602.468.8521
[email protected] Ambri Bizek Research Analyst 602.468.8542
[email protected] Bobby Szeto Research Analyst 602.468.8583
[email protected] The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. Copyright © 2011 Cassidy Turley. All rights reserved.
Jerad Silver Research Analyst 602.468.8571
[email protected]