Housing market Capital city market report Prepared March 2014 Dr Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
apm.com.au | 1800 817 616 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
Housing market report Housing markets continue to rise with lower rates
National overview Australian housing markets continue to provide positive indications of ongoing resilience in both buyer and seller activity. Historically low interest rates have fuelled significant improvements in affordability and this has continued to activate buyers at the highest levels for four years in most centres. Although the Reserve Bank has decided to leave interest rates on hold again over March, mortgage costs continue to fall as banks compete vigorously for market share. Signs are emerging of a more positive outlook for the national economy with construction, exports, retail sales, business profits and confidence on the rise. Unemployment however remains a concern, with the national rate at its highest level since 2003.
However much will depend on the direction of the jobs market – particularly in Melbourne where unemployment levels are the highest since 1999 and set to continue rising. Sydney remains the super-star of capital city housing markets, with a record auction clearance rate reported over February for that month – and just below the all-time record set in September last year. Melbourne has also begun the year in a positive manner with clearance rates over February higher than December last year. Other housing markets are also exhibiting increased buyer and seller activity, in a generally robust environment, is set to continue at least through to mid-year.
The Reserve Bank will likely leave rates on hold over the short term, however it is also likely that the current easing cycle is over.
Yearly median price growth, Top 10, Dec Qtr ‘13
Median prices, national $600k
Houses
16.2%
Sydney Houses 12.5%
Melbourne Houses
11.6%
Sydney Units
$500k
10.5%
Darwin Units
10.1%
Perth Houses
Units
6.4%
Perth Units
5.8%
Melbourne Units
$400k
4.5%
Brisbane Houses Adelaide Houses
Jul 13
Change since last month
3.2%
Jan 14
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jul 10
Jan 10
Jul 09
Jan 09
Jul 08
Jan 08
Jul 07
Jul 06
Darwin Houses
Jan 07
$300k
3.4%
p
2.7%
p
4.5%
p
0.9%
p
1.8%
p
3.7%
q
-3.6%
p
2.3%
p
2.3%
p
1.2%
q -10.4%
source: APM
source: APM
Median prices: 3 months to end January 2014
Houses
Units Jan 2014
Quarterly change
Yearly change
Jan 2014
Quarterly change
Yearly change
Sydney
$767,637
3.6%
16.2%
$541,811
2.4%
11.6%
Melbourne
$601,688
2.9%
12.5%
$415,522
1.0%
5.8%
Brisbane
$461,642
1.4%
4.5%
$362,576
-0.9%
1.0%
Adelaide
$449,819
2.0%
3.4%
$277,183
-2.0%
-0.7%
Perth
$615,344
2.3%
10.1%
$399,594
0.2%
6.4%
Canberra
$568,518
0.0%
0.0%
$416,819
-0.7%
0.9%
Gold Coast
$481,250
0.3%
2.4%
$350,649
0.2%
1.6%
National
$609,034
2.7%
11.3%
$456,632
1.4%
8.0%
National | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Sydney
Quick stats
The Sydney housing market continues to lead capital city market performance with buyer and seller activity at records levels. Weekend auction clearance rates have consistently exceeded 80 percent over February and into March with sales levels unprecedented for this time of the year. Auction listings are considerably higher than over the same period in 2013 indicating high levels of confidence from sellers.
Auction clearance rate
77% Feb 2014
65 %
62%
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average days on market
Most suburban regions are recording consistently high clearance rates at auction with the inner west, the upper north shore and south mid-price range markets particularly vibrant.
63 Feb 2014
88
77
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Indications are that the relatively quiet prestige market is gathering momentum with rising listing numbers and clearance rates on the lower north shore, northern beaches and city and east regions.
Average discount
Sydney’s strong housing market can be expected to continue at its current level through to mid-year with investor activity remaining a significant component of the market energy.
4.8%
5.8%
6.0 %
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Auction clearance rates, Sydney*
Median prices, Sydney
80%
$800k
Stock on market
22k
Houses
$700k
70%
Feb 2014
$600k 60%
Units
$500k 50%
Change 12 months ago
-24.5 % Change long-term trend
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions
Inner West QoQ: +5.4% YoY: +22.5% CanBankstown QoQ: +2.9% YoY: +13.8% South West QoQ: +4.3% YoY: +14.0%
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 12
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) West QoQ: +5.1% YoY: +15.4%
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 06
$300k
Jan 07
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
$400k
Aug 06
40%
-17.2%
Median price change by region (units) Upper North QoQ: +4.0% YoY: +20.1% Northern Beaches QoQ: +4.0% YoY: +13.9% Lower North QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +14.3% City & East QoQ: -0.6% YoY: +14.9% South QoQ: +3.0% YoY: +15.5%
West QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +11.3%
Inner West QoQ: +0.2% YoY: +9.1% CanBankstown QoQ: +1.2% YoY: +11.9% South West QoQ: -1.0% YoY: +6.6%
Upper North QoQ: -1.7% YoY: +4.9% Northern Beaches QoQ: +1.7% YoY: +8.9% Lower North QoQ: +2.8% YoY: +18.0% City & East QoQ: +0.3% YoY: +9.4% South QoQ: -1.0% YoY: +8.4%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Sydney | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Melbourne
Quick stats
The Melbourne housing market has started 2014 resolutely as buyer and seller activity continues to track higher than last year.
Auction clearance rate
Low interest rates and restored confidence will keep the Melbourne housing market ticking over despite increasing gloominess over the state of the local economy. Melbourne’s prestige property market has been a key element in the revival of the housing market over the past year – and its input continues to be significant this year. 399 properties were reported sold at auction over February this year with a price of $1 million or above. This compares to just 261 over February last year.
71%
69 %
66 %
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average days on market
Melbourne’s inner south suburban region has been particularly prominent this year with the leading regional clearance rate over February at 79.7 percent compared to 72.0 recorded over February 2013. The inner east and outer east continue to be popular with buyers with February clearance rates of 78.6 percent and 74.8 percent respectively. Higher auction listing numbers are also a feature of the Melbourne market this year with 4,400 properties scheduled to go under the hammer over March compared to just 3052 over March last year.
104
100
78
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average discount
6.3%
6.9 %
6.5 %
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
Melbourne’s resilient performance so far this year can be expected to continue to mid-year particularly driven by momentum in inner-city prestige markets. The local economy however remains a concern with the latest unemployment rate at 7.3 percent clearly the highest of the mainland capitals and the highest monthly result since 1999.
41k
5.8 %
16.3%
Feb 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Median prices, Melbourne
Auction clearance rates, Melbourne* 90%
$600k
Houses 80%
$500k
70%
Units
$400k 60%
* January has been excluded due to low number of auctions
West QoQ: +4.7% YoY: +8.4% Inner QoQ: +4.1% YoY: +9.1% Inner South QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +16.8%
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 12
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) North QoQ: +3.2% YoY: +11.0%
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 07
Jan 08
$200k
Jul 06
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
Aug 06
40%
Jan 07
$300k
50%
Median price change by region (units) North East QoQ: +5.0 YoY: +11.7% Inner East QoQ: -3.6% YoY: +12.5% Outer East QoQ: +3.7% YoY: +18.0% South East QoQ: +3.8% YoY: +9.0%
North QoQ: +0.1% YoY: +6.1% West QoQ: -0.6% YoY: -1.1% Inner QoQ: -1.0% YoY: +3.0% Inner South QoQ: -0.4% YoY: +9.7%
North East QoQ: +0.4% YoY: +9.1% Inner East QoQ: +0.4% YoY: +10.1% Outer East QoQ: +4.7% YoY: +16.1% South East QoQ: +4.6% YoY: +5.4%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Melbourne | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Brisbane The Brisbane housing market remains poised for steady growth in home buyer activity through 2014.
Auction clearance rate
Brisbane local government sub-markets have all recorded house price growth over 2013 with the City of Brisbane clearly the top performer at 7.5 percent followed by Ipswich City at 5.6 percent. Logan City and Redland City remain the underperformers in the region recording growth of 1.2 percent and 3.3 percent respectively over 2013.
Feb 2014
46% 109
8
7.3
7.4
Units
$400k
5 3.6
4
3.9
103
Long-term trend
5.7%
7.1%
7.5 %
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market Houses
6.8
6.3
5.8
109
12 months ago
Average discount
Median prices, Brisbane
7.9
7.5
7 6
Feb 2014
$500k
9
35 %
Long-term trend
Average days on market
Economic activity is slowly improving in Brisbane as the impact of a lower dollar activates Queensland export markets and tourism. Unemployment remains high with a sharp increase over February to 7.4 percent. The jobs market should gradually improve although buyer activity will continue to be driven by high affordability courtesy of the second lowest mainland capital median house price and low interest rates.
Unemployment rate by city, Feb 2014
41%
12 months ago
27k
6.1%
6.0 %
Feb 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
$300k
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 07
Jan 08
$200k
1
Jul 06
2
Jan 07
3
Nat
Hob
Dar
Can
Per
Ade
Bris
Melb
Syd
0
source: ABS
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) Caboolture QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +1.4% Pine Rivers QoQ: +3.8% YoY: +3.8% NW Outer QoQ: +2.7% YoY: +3.8% SE Outer QoQ: +1.0% YoY: +6.4% Ipswich QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +3.1%
Median price change by region (units) NW Inner QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +5.1%
Caboolture QoQ: +0.6% YoY: -3.8%
Inner QoQ: +4.3% YoY: +11.7%
Pine Rivers QoQ: -0.9% YoY: -2.0%
SE Inner QoQ: +0.8% YoY: +9.9%
NW Outer QoQ: -1.5% YoY: -1.0%
SE Inner QoQ: -5.7% YoY: +3.9%
SE Outer QoQ: -0.9% YoY: -3.8%
Redland QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +0.8%
Ipswich QoQ: -17.0% YoY: -24.6%
Logan QoQ: -9.5% YoY: -27.3%
Redland QoQ: +3.3% YoY: +3.3% Logan QoQ: -2.5% YoY: +1.2%
NW Inner QoQ: -1.1% YoY: +0.6%
Inner QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +5.6%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Brisbane | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Adelaide
Average days on market
Despite an underperforming economy Adelaide’s housing market will continue to provide solid buyer activity through 2014. Latest ABS jobs data is a concern with a February unemployment rate of 7.5 percent - the highest rate fo 12 years.
117 Feb 2014
Low interest rates are not only activating home buying in Adelaide but also increased dwelling construction. Latest ABS building approval data for January reported 678 dwelling approvals over January 2014 compared to the 411 recorded over January last year - again a solid reflection of increased home buyer demand in Adelaide.
Adelaide unemployment rate
Median prices, Adelaide $500k
6.2%
7.1%
6.7%
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
Houses
9%
119
Long-term trend
Average discount
Adelaide also has a healthy first home buyer market that can be expected to continue to flourish through 2014, driven by relatively low entry level prices. Currently 16 percent of buyer activity in South Australia is from first home buyers which is close to the long-term average for the state and second only to Western Australia.
10%
148
12 months ago
11k
-4.2%
2.3%
Feb 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
$400k
8% 7%
Units
$300k
6% 5%
$200k
4%
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 06
Feb 14
Nov 13
Aug 13
May 13
Feb 13
Nov 12
Aug 12
May 12
Feb 12
Nov 11
$100k Aug 11
2%
Jan 07
3%
source: APM
source: ABS
Median price change by region (houses)
Median price change by region (units)
North QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +0.4%
North QoQ: -1.6% YoY: -1.3%
West QoQ: +3.1% YoY: +4.3%
West QoQ: +3.0% YoY: -3.5%
East QoQ: +5.2% YoY: +6.0%
East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +0.3%
South QoQ: +4.5% YoY: +3.4%
South QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +1.0%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Adelaide | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Perth The Perth housing market can be expected to continue to record solid buyer activity through 2014 with the market characterised by an even performance from buyer types and price ranges. Western Australia has the highest market share of first home buyers of all the states with the numbers of this buyer group consistently at long-term averages and expected to remain so. Perth’s east and south east and south west suburban regions have been the best performers over the past 12 months recording house price annual growth of 12 and 11.5 percent respectively over 2013.
Average days on market
90
83
97
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average discount
Challenges have emerged for the local economy as a surge in interstate jobseekers has placed pressure on a Western Australian employment market adjusting to the end of the construction phase of the resources boom.
5.3%
5.3%
6.9 %
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
Median weekly asking rent, houses December 2013
Median prices, Perth
$550
$700k
$500
Perth
$450
National
23k
6.4%
5.2%
Feb 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Houses
$600k $500k
Units
$400k $400
source: APM
North QoQ: +4.1% YoY: +11.3%
South West QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +11.5%
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 09
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses)
Central QoQ: +5.3% YoY: +5.9%
Jan 10
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 06
Jan 07
$200k
Dec 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
Jun 12
Sep 12
Mar 12
Dec 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
Mar 11
Dec 10
Jun 10
Sep 10
Mar 10
Dec 09
$350
Sep 09
$300k
East QoQ: 3.1% YoY: +9.8%
South East QoQ: +3.0% YoY: +12.0%
Median price change by region (units) North QoQ: +6.3% YoY: +12.0% Central QoQ: +8.8% YoY: +7.5%
South West QoQ: +7.3% YoY: +17.8%
East QoQ: +8.8% YoY: +6.5%
South East QoQ: -2.6% YoY: +2.3%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014.
Perth | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Canberra
Average days on market
Latest auction clearance rates signal the Canberra housing market remains relatively subdued, although there are some early signs of a revival. Low interest rates will be a catalyst for a sustained lift in buyer activity although a strengthening local economy is also a key factor – early signs of which are also emerging. The Canberra unemployment rate for February was 3.6 percent, which was down sharply from the 5.1 percent recorded over February 2013.
Auction clearance rates however remain well below the recent previous peak for February of 73 percent recorded in 2010. Median prices, Canberra
6.0% 5.5%
Houses $500k
4.5%
Units
4.0% 3.5%
73
12 months ago
Long-term trend
3.7%
5.0 %
4.8 %
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Stock on market
$600k
5.0%
97
Feb 2014
Average discount
Canberra recorded an auction clearance rate of 55.7 percent over February which is similar to the 54.2 percent result reported over February last year.
Canberra unemployment rate
78
$400k
2.1k
18.9 %
44.7%
Feb 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
3.0% 2.5%
$300k
2.0%
source: ABS
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 10
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses) Belconnen QoQ: -1.2% YoY: +1.1%
Jan 11
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 06
$200k
Jan 07
Jan 14
Jul 13
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jul 11
Jan 11
Jul 10
Jul 09
Jan 10
1.0%
Jan 09
1.5%
Median price change by region (units) Gungahlin QoQ: -1.9% YoY: +1.9%
Belconnen QoQ: -2.5% YoY: -1.3%
North QoQ: -2.3% YoY: -5.3%
North QoQ: -2.8% YoY: +2.3% Woden Valley QoQ: +2.7% YoY: -3.3%
Tuggeranong QoQ: +3.1% YoY: +4.7%
South QoQ: -6.6% YoY: +7.4%
Gungahlin QoQ: -8.1% YoY: +7.0%
Woden Valley QoQ: -8.2% YoY: -2.5%
South QoQ: +5.1% YoY: -11.3%
Tuggeranong QoQ: +6.1% YoY: +4.9%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of January 2014
Canberra | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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Housing market report Quick stats
Gold Coast The Gold Coast housing market can be expected to continue the encouraging prices growth and buyer activity that emerged through 2013 in line with other south-east Queensland housing markets.
Average days on market
136
176
142
The central and south Gold Coast suburban regions have clearly been the best performers of the all the regions over the past year with prices growth over 2013 of 5 percent and 12.5 percent respectively.
Feb 2014
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Average discount
The local economy also continues to provide positive signs of revival with an unemployment rate over January of 4.6 percent – the second consecutive month at this low rate and well below the 5.7 percent recorded the year before. Average days on market, Gold Coast
Median prices, Gold Coast
200
$600k
9.7%
12 months ago
Long-term trend
Houses
$500k
140 $400k
Units
120 100
9.7%
Feb 2014
Stock on market
180 160
7.2%
$300k
10k
-0.2%
-12.4%
Feb 2014
Change 12 months ago
Change long-term trend
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 06
$200k
Jan 07
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Feb 08
Aug 08
Feb 07
Aug 07
60
Aug 06
80
source: APM
Median price change by region (houses)
Gold Coast West QoQ: +1.2% YoY: +5.1%
Median price change by region (units)
Gold Coast West QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +1.4%
Gold Coast East QoQ: -1.1% YoY: +2.2%
Gold Coast East QoQ: -1.5% YoY: 0.0%
QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of December 2013.
Gold Coast | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors Copyright Australian Property Monitors. Any reproduction of or reference to any part of this report must attribute Australian Property Monitors as the source.
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Housing market report Hobart
Darwin
The Hobart housing market can be expected to build on the recovery in prices growth reported through 2013. Changes to the local first home buyers grant - now increased temporarily to $30,000, and the highest of all the states - will facilitate a surge from first home buyers and in home building. There are indicators that this surge is already emerging.
Home buying activity in Darwin has continued solidly in 2014 driven by high levels of immigration activated by a strong local economy and the lowest unemployment of all the capitals at just 2.5 percent and falling.
The local economy remains under pressure with a February unemployment rate of 7.9 percent – the highest of all the capitals.
Rising investor activity has been a characteristic of the Darwin housing market over the past year and this can be expected to continue through 2014 despite rising vacancy rates - particularly for units.
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Hobart and Darwin | March 2014 Commentary provided by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors
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