Housing Market Summary North West Region Introduction This ...
Housing Market Summary North West Region
Introduction This issue will focus on the following areas: • • • •
House Prices, Sales and Affordability Repossession Statistics Mortgage Lending House Building
House Prices, Sales and Affordability Average house prices in the North West for the third quarter of 2010 stood at £164,812 (Hometrack data). Although house prices have fluctuated since the third quarter of 2009, this average figure represents an increase in annual house prices of 5.4% on the same period twelve months previously. Indeed, there has been a general upward trend in house prices since March 2009. As Figure 1 overleaf shows, overall prices in Cheshire and Greater Manchester are driving the increase in the region this quarter, where September figures are over £3,000 higher than in June. Prices for flats/maisonettes have fallen steadily since June to end September on £121,650 (Hometrack). Prices for all other property types have grown over the same period.
Figure 1: House Price Trends by Region and Sub-Region £200,000 £190,000 £180,000 £170,000 £160,000 £150,000 £140,000 £130,000
Cheshire
Cumbria
Lancashire
Greater Manchester
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
£120,000
Merseyside
Sales Further evidence of a continuing stabilising market is the number of sales covering the two corresponding quarters of 2009 and 2010. In the third quarter of 2010 there were 19,048 house sales recorded in the North West compared to 17,562 between July and September of 2009 – a 2.9% increase compared with a 5.4% increase between the third quarters of 2008 and 2009 (HM Land Registry). The greatest proportionate increase in sales on the corresponding quarter of 2009 was seen in Cumbria (22.4%). Increases were also seen in Cheshire (18.1%), Lancashire (10.5%) and Greater Manchester (5.4%). Sales of flats/maisonettes fell by 32.5% in Greater Manchester and by 27.3% in Lancashire compared to the third quarter of 2009. Lancashire also saw a reduction of 7.6% for detached properties. Meanwhile sales of flatted properties grew by almost onefifth in Merseyside (19%). Figure 2 overleaf shows property sales in the North West by property type since November 2008.
Figure 2: North West Property Sales by Type 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
Terraced
Semi-Detached
Detached
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
0
Flat/Maisonette
Affordability The relative affordability of different areas can be estimated using a ratio of mean house prices and mean incomes. The higher the value, the less affordable an area is. By comparing Hometrack’s house price data with income data from CACI, it can be seen that there is an average affordability ratio of 5.09 in the North West – one of the lowest in the country and down from 5.2 in 2009. The two least affordable places to live in the region are South Lakeland and Eden with ratios of 7.12 and 7.03 respectively. The most affordable authority areas are Burnley and Hyndburn with respective ratios of 3.4 and 3.64.
Map 1: Affordability ratios by local authority
Repossession Statistics Mortgage According to CLG figures, households approaching North Western local authorities with mortgage difficulties regarding the Mortgage Rescue Scheme during the third quarter of 2010 stood at 826, down from 827 in the previous quarter but up from 692 in the third quarter of 2009. Of the total approaches, the number of households at risk of repossession and in a priority need category was 371 (44.9% compared to a national average of 41.3%). The most common outcome of the approach to local authorities was being referred to the lender and/or to Money Advisors (389), while 252 were given an information pack or given advice. In terms of actual possession proceedings, Ministry of Justice data shows that there were 3,210 mortgage possession claims issued in the North West between July and September, which is a 17% decrease on the corresponding quarter of 2009. Annual changes in claims are down in most local authorities; the greatest reductions were seen in Burnley and Knowsley (both -39%). Meanwhile, Bury bucks the regional trend with an increase of 32%. Mortgage possession claims leading to orders made in the region stood at 2,525 – a 29% reduction on the third quarter of 2009 with largest reductions occurring in Wirral (50%) and Burnley (-40%). Wyre was the only district where an increase was recorded (42%). However, while no proportionate change was recorded for the Cumbrian districts, there was a 5% increase Cumbria-wide. Landlord Landlord possession claims issued in the region have fallen by 6% on the previous year’s figure to stand at 4,280. A number of authority areas have seen reductions of around one-third. These are Burnley (-34%), Sefton (-34%), South Lakeland (-32%) and Trafford (-32%). There were relatively large increases in Halton (46%), Warrington (34%) and Wigan (33%).
Landlord possession claims leading to orders made have decreased by 11% compared to the third quarter of 2009 to stand at 2,825. Hyndburn has one of the greatest decreases in landlord repossessions (-44%) along with Trafford (-42%). Meanwhile, Warrington (74%) and Bolton (49%) were the local authority areas to see the greatest increases. Mortgage Lending Figures released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) show that nationally, mortgage lending has taken a downward turn. Mortgages in the third quarter of this year were worth a total of £37.8bn. This is down slightly (-3.1%) on the same quarter in 2009. House Building There are signs that the building industry may be recovering as the 2,080 building starts in the third quarter represents a 25.3% increase on the third quarter of 2009. The vast majority of dwellings were started by the private sector (88.5%) with the remainder by social landlords. House building completions, however are showing a decrease on the third quarter of 2009. A 12.1% decrease has resulted in 1,970 homes being completed between July and September with 14.7% being built by RSLs. Endnote The next report will concentrate on the final quarter of 2010 and will be available to all NHC members. If you have any questions or queries regarding this document, please contact Barry Turnbull at Northern Housing Consortium on 0191 5661030 or at [email protected]. Alternatively visit our website at www.northern-consortium.org.uk.
Introduction This issue will focus on the following areas: • • • •
House Prices, Sales and Affordability Repossession Statistics Mortgage Lending House Building
House Prices, Sales and Affordability Average house prices in the North West for the third quarter of 2010 stood at £164,812 (Hometrack data). Although house prices have fluctuated since the third quarter of 2009, this average figure represents an increase in annual house prices of 5.4% on the same period twelve months previously. Indeed, there has been a general upward trend in house prices since March 2009. As Figure 1 overleaf shows, overall prices in Cheshire and Greater Manchester are driving the increase in the region this quarter, where September figures are over £3,000 higher than in June. Prices for flats/maisonettes have fallen steadily since June to end September on £121,650 (Hometrack). Prices for all other property types have grown over the same period.
Figure 1: House Price Trends by Region and Sub-Region £200,000 £190,000 £180,000 £170,000 £160,000 £150,000 £140,000 £130,000
Cheshire
Cumbria
Lancashire
Greater Manchester
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
£120,000
Merseyside
Sales Further evidence of a continuing stabilising market is the number of sales covering the two corresponding quarters of 2009 and 2010. In the third quarter of 2010 there were 19,048 house sales recorded in the North West compared to 17,562 between July and September of 2009 – a 2.9% increase compared with a 5.4% increase between the third quarters of 2008 and 2009 (HM Land Registry). The greatest proportionate increase in sales on the corresponding quarter of 2009 was seen in Cumbria (22.4%). Increases were also seen in Cheshire (18.1%), Lancashire (10.5%) and Greater Manchester (5.4%). Sales of flats/maisonettes fell by 32.5% in Greater Manchester and by 27.3% in Lancashire compared to the third quarter of 2009. Lancashire also saw a reduction of 7.6% for detached properties. Meanwhile sales of flatted properties grew by almost onefifth in Merseyside (19%). Figure 2 overleaf shows property sales in the North West by property type since November 2008.
Figure 2: North West Property Sales by Type 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
Terraced
Semi-Detached
Detached
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
0
Flat/Maisonette
Affordability The relative affordability of different areas can be estimated using a ratio of mean house prices and mean incomes. The higher the value, the less affordable an area is. By comparing Hometrack’s house price data with income data from CACI, it can be seen that there is an average affordability ratio of 5.09 in the North West – one of the lowest in the country and down from 5.2 in 2009. The two least affordable places to live in the region are South Lakeland and Eden with ratios of 7.12 and 7.03 respectively. The most affordable authority areas are Burnley and Hyndburn with respective ratios of 3.4 and 3.64.
Map 1: Affordability ratios by local authority
Repossession Statistics Mortgage According to CLG figures, households approaching North Western local authorities with mortgage difficulties regarding the Mortgage Rescue Scheme during the third quarter of 2010 stood at 826, down from 827 in the previous quarter but up from 692 in the third quarter of 2009. Of the total approaches, the number of households at risk of repossession and in a priority need category was 371 (44.9% compared to a national average of 41.3%). The most common outcome of the approach to local authorities was being referred to the lender and/or to Money Advisors (389), while 252 were given an information pack or given advice. In terms of actual possession proceedings, Ministry of Justice data shows that there were 3,210 mortgage possession claims issued in the North West between July and September, which is a 17% decrease on the corresponding quarter of 2009. Annual changes in claims are down in most local authorities; the greatest reductions were seen in Burnley and Knowsley (both -39%). Meanwhile, Bury bucks the regional trend with an increase of 32%. Mortgage possession claims leading to orders made in the region stood at 2,525 – a 29% reduction on the third quarter of 2009 with largest reductions occurring in Wirral (50%) and Burnley (-40%). Wyre was the only district where an increase was recorded (42%). However, while no proportionate change was recorded for the Cumbrian districts, there was a 5% increase Cumbria-wide. Landlord Landlord possession claims issued in the region have fallen by 6% on the previous year’s figure to stand at 4,280. A number of authority areas have seen reductions of around one-third. These are Burnley (-34%), Sefton (-34%), South Lakeland (-32%) and Trafford (-32%). There were relatively large increases in Halton (46%), Warrington (34%) and Wigan (33%).
Landlord possession claims leading to orders made have decreased by 11% compared to the third quarter of 2009 to stand at 2,825. Hyndburn has one of the greatest decreases in landlord repossessions (-44%) along with Trafford (-42%). Meanwhile, Warrington (74%) and Bolton (49%) were the local authority areas to see the greatest increases. Mortgage Lending Figures released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) show that nationally, mortgage lending has taken a downward turn. Mortgages in the third quarter of this year were worth a total of £37.8bn. This is down slightly (-3.1%) on the same quarter in 2009. House Building There are signs that the building industry may be recovering as the 2,080 building starts in the third quarter represents a 25.3% increase on the third quarter of 2009. The vast majority of dwellings were started by the private sector (88.5%) with the remainder by social landlords. House building completions, however are showing a decrease on the third quarter of 2009. A 12.1% decrease has resulted in 1,970 homes being completed between July and September with 14.7% being built by RSLs. Endnote The next report will concentrate on the final quarter of 2010 and will be available to all NHC members. If you have any questions or queries regarding this document, please contact Barry Turnbull at Northern Housing Consortium on 0191 5661030 or at [email protected]. Alternatively visit our website at www.northern-consortium.org.uk.
