How US may Engage with Scientific Enclave in India on the Nuclear ...

Indo-US Nuclear Scientific Collaboration A Nonproliferation Way Forward By Saurabh Dutta Chowdhury MIIS

Outline Indian Nuclear Scientific Enclave

Three stage Indian Nuclear Program Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal and AEC

Projection of Current Status Quo Alternatives Outcome summary Next Steps

Indian Nuclear Scientific Enclave  Atomic Energy Commission led by AEC Chairman  Direct Access to the Prime Ministers Office

 R&D Labs     

BARC Trombay (AHWR) IGCAR Kalpakkam (FBR) RRCAT Indore (Accelerator Driven Systems) VECC Kolkata (Variable Energy Cyclotron Center) NFC Hyderabad (Nuclear Fuels)

 PSU (Public Sector Undertakings)  NPCIL Mumbai  BHAVINI Kalpakkam

  

Proliferation Risky Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR’s) mainstay Proliferation and safety risks enhanced by the 2nd stage Fast Breeder Reactor No Accelerator driven systems to leverage thorium fuel cycle or waste management

Indo-US Nuclear Deal  India Gets  Access to Nuclear fuel from NSG

 US Gets  Access to Indian Nuclear Power Market

 India Agrees to  Put Civilian Nuclear reactors under IAEA Safeguards  Allow safeguards on reprocessing of NSG fuel

 India Does not agree to (Sticking Points)  Put Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) under Safeguards  India gives no date on signing FMCT

Indo-US Nuclear Deal : Indian Scientific Enclave  Initially AEC outright opposed the Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal (Kakodkar’s Interview to Hindu 2004)  AEC continued to view the Indo-US Nuclear deal with competitive suspicion (Press Releases 2006)

 AEC turned around and supported the deal after 2008

AEC an Uneasy Partner With Influence

Projection of Current Status Quo 

NPCIL decides on Reactors purchase.



AEC collaborates 1:1 with Fermilab on Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS)



NPCIL under control of Scientific Enclave (Pg3)



AEC pushes for FBR w/ Russia



US Engage via Private Sector JV



US has no leverage on AEC



Liability laws etc keep US commercial interests out

Alternative I  NPCIL Independent of AEC

 NPCIL “Buys” based on Commercial Viability  Invite Indian Scientific Enclave to join Gen IV initiative  US Engage in managed dialog with Indian Scientific Enclave to achieve its proliferation and commercial goals

 Access to ADS Collaboration with US tied to  India allowing FBR safeguards  India Signing FMCT

 India gets commercially viable and safe Nuclear Power plants  Confidence is build between Indian Scientific enclave and US Technology  US leverages Indian scientific talent in a collaborative fashion

Alternative II  Scientific Enclave continues to push 3 stage program thru PSU’s like BHAVINI  Indian Nuclear Scientists continue getting isolated from West  Indian Private sector (L&T, Tata) tie up with Western/Japanese LWR’s to compete with BHAVINI  BHAVINI loses out to Private sector players like L&TWestinghouse and L&T-GEH.

 ~ 1000 Indian Nuclear Scientists at the government run scientific enclaves of IGCAR and BARC become marginalized.  LTTE, Maoists and Al Queda continue to operate in the neighborhood  Indian Nuclear scientists working at BHAVINI become Proliferation risk.

Policy Alternatives & Outcomes Policy Alternatives

Outcomes Assessed by Criteria

Fast Breeder Reactor safeguards

Leverage on India to sign the FMCT

US Commercial Success in selling civil Nuclear technology

Proliferation risks from "brain drain" and/or export control violations

Allow unmanaged US India Scientific Enclave engagements (Current Status Quo)

Low

Low

Medium

High*

Managed Engagement with Indian Scientific Enclave tied to non proliferation and commercial goals (Alternative I)

High

High

High

Low

Bypass Indian Scientific Enclave (Alternative II)

Low

Low

Low

High

* Could quest for Accelerator Systems really be quest for Tritium for Thermonuclear device

Next Steps  US Sticks  India allowing safeguards on Fast breeder reactors  India signing the FMCT

 US Carrots  Offer Indian Scientific Enclave Collaboration on ADS  Invite Indian Scientific Enclave to join Gen IV Consortia  Joint Funding w/ Govt. Of India for Venture Development

Proliferation risks from “brain drain” & Plutonium threat addressed

Appendix

BHAVINI-PSU To Sell FBR’s

Press Clippings: AEC Response

2006

Acknowledgements • Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki Veress, CNS MIIS • Ms. Elena Sokova, CNS MIIS • Dr. Glynn Wood, MIIS