Indian Nuclear Scientific Enclave
Indo-US Nuclear Scientific Collaboration A Nonproliferation Way Forward By Saurabh Dutta Chowdhury MIIS
Outline Indian Nuclear Scientific Enclave Three stage Indian Nuclear Program Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal and AEC Projection of Current Status Quo Alternatives Outcome summary Next Steps
Indian Nuclear Scientific Enclave Atomic Energy Commission led by AEC Chairman Direct Access to the Prime Ministers Office
R&D Labs
BARC Trombay (AHWR) IGCAR Kalpakkam (FBR) RRCAT Indore (Accelerator Driven Systems) VECC Kolkata (Variable Energy Cyclotron Center) NFC Hyderabad (Nuclear Fuels)
PSU (Public Sector Undertakings) NPCIL Mumbai BHAVINI Kalpakkam
Proliferation Risky Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR’s) mainstay Proliferation and safety risks enhanced by the 2nd stage Fast Breeder Reactor No Accelerator driven systems to leverage thorium fuel cycle or waste management
Indo-US Nuclear Deal India Gets Access to Nuclear fuel from NSG
US Gets Access to Indian Nuclear Power Market
India Agrees to Put Civilian Nuclear reactors under IAEA Safeguards Allow safeguards on reprocessing of NSG fuel
India Does not agree to (Sticking Points) Put Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) under Safeguards India gives no date on signing FMCT
Indo-US Nuclear Deal : Indian Scientific Enclave Initially AEC outright opposed the Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal (Kakodkar’s Interview to Hindu 2004) AEC continued to view the Indo-US Nuclear deal with competitive suspicion (Press Releases 2006) AEC turned around and supported the deal after 2008
AEC an Uneasy Partner With Influence
Projection of Current Status Quo
NPCIL decides on Reactors purchase.
AEC collaborates 1:1 with Fermilab on Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS)
NPCIL under control of Scientific Enclave (Pg3)
AEC pushes for FBR w/ Russia
US Engage via Private Sector JV
US has no leverage on AEC
Liability laws etc keep US commercial interests out
Alternative I NPCIL Independent of AEC NPCIL “Buys” based on Commercial Viability Invite Indian Scientific Enclave to join Gen IV initiative US Engage in managed dialog with Indian Scientific Enclave to achieve its proliferation and commercial goals
Access to ADS Collaboration with US tied to India allowing FBR safeguards India Signing FMCT
India gets commercially viable and safe Nuclear Power plants Confidence is build between Indian Scientific enclave and US Technology US leverages Indian scientific talent in a collaborative fashion
Alternative II Scientific Enclave continues to push 3 stage program thru PSU’s like BHAVINI Indian Nuclear Scientists continue getting isolated from West Indian Private sector (L&T, Tata) tie up with Western/Japanese LWR’s to compete with BHAVINI BHAVINI loses out to Private sector players like L&TWestinghouse and L&T-GEH.
~ 1000 Indian Nuclear Scientists at the government run scientific enclaves of IGCAR and BARC become marginalized. LTTE, Maoists and Al Queda continue to operate in the neighborhood Indian Nuclear scientists working at BHAVINI become Proliferation risk.
Policy Alternatives & Outcomes Policy Alternatives
Outcomes Assessed by Criteria
Fast Breeder Reactor safeguards
Leverage on India to sign the FMCT
US Commercial Success in selling civil Nuclear technology
Proliferation risks from "brain drain" and/or export control violations
Allow unmanaged US India Scientific Enclave engagements (Current Status Quo)
Low
Low
Medium
High
Managed Engagement with Indian Scientific Enclave tied to non proliferation and commercial goals (Alternative I)
High
High
High
Low
Bypass Indian Scientific Enclave (Alternative II)
Low
Low
Low
High
Next Steps US Sticks India allowing safeguards on Fast breeder reactors India signing the FMCT
US Carrots Offer Indian Scientific Enclave Collaboration on ADS Invite Indian Scientific Enclave to join Gen IV Consortia Joint Funding w/ Govt. Of India for Venture Development
Proliferation risks from “brain drain” & Plutonium threat addressed
Appendix
BHAVINI-PSU To Sell FBR’s
Press Clippings: AEC Response
2006
Acknowledgements • Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki Veress, CNS MIIS • Ms. Elena Sokova, CNS MIIS • Dr. Glynn Wood, MIIS
Outline Indian Nuclear Scientific Enclave Three stage Indian Nuclear Program Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal and AEC Projection of Current Status Quo Alternatives Outcome summary Next Steps
Indian Nuclear Scientific Enclave Atomic Energy Commission led by AEC Chairman Direct Access to the Prime Ministers Office
R&D Labs
BARC Trombay (AHWR) IGCAR Kalpakkam (FBR) RRCAT Indore (Accelerator Driven Systems) VECC Kolkata (Variable Energy Cyclotron Center) NFC Hyderabad (Nuclear Fuels)
PSU (Public Sector Undertakings) NPCIL Mumbai BHAVINI Kalpakkam
Proliferation Risky Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR’s) mainstay Proliferation and safety risks enhanced by the 2nd stage Fast Breeder Reactor No Accelerator driven systems to leverage thorium fuel cycle or waste management
Indo-US Nuclear Deal India Gets Access to Nuclear fuel from NSG
US Gets Access to Indian Nuclear Power Market
India Agrees to Put Civilian Nuclear reactors under IAEA Safeguards Allow safeguards on reprocessing of NSG fuel
India Does not agree to (Sticking Points) Put Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) under Safeguards India gives no date on signing FMCT
Indo-US Nuclear Deal : Indian Scientific Enclave Initially AEC outright opposed the Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal (Kakodkar’s Interview to Hindu 2004) AEC continued to view the Indo-US Nuclear deal with competitive suspicion (Press Releases 2006) AEC turned around and supported the deal after 2008
AEC an Uneasy Partner With Influence
Projection of Current Status Quo
NPCIL decides on Reactors purchase.
AEC collaborates 1:1 with Fermilab on Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS)
NPCIL under control of Scientific Enclave (Pg3)
AEC pushes for FBR w/ Russia
US Engage via Private Sector JV
US has no leverage on AEC
Liability laws etc keep US commercial interests out
Alternative I NPCIL Independent of AEC NPCIL “Buys” based on Commercial Viability Invite Indian Scientific Enclave to join Gen IV initiative US Engage in managed dialog with Indian Scientific Enclave to achieve its proliferation and commercial goals
Access to ADS Collaboration with US tied to India allowing FBR safeguards India Signing FMCT
India gets commercially viable and safe Nuclear Power plants Confidence is build between Indian Scientific enclave and US Technology US leverages Indian scientific talent in a collaborative fashion
Alternative II Scientific Enclave continues to push 3 stage program thru PSU’s like BHAVINI Indian Nuclear Scientists continue getting isolated from West Indian Private sector (L&T, Tata) tie up with Western/Japanese LWR’s to compete with BHAVINI BHAVINI loses out to Private sector players like L&TWestinghouse and L&T-GEH.
~ 1000 Indian Nuclear Scientists at the government run scientific enclaves of IGCAR and BARC become marginalized. LTTE, Maoists and Al Queda continue to operate in the neighborhood Indian Nuclear scientists working at BHAVINI become Proliferation risk.
Policy Alternatives & Outcomes Policy Alternatives
Outcomes Assessed by Criteria
Fast Breeder Reactor safeguards
Leverage on India to sign the FMCT
US Commercial Success in selling civil Nuclear technology
Proliferation risks from "brain drain" and/or export control violations
Allow unmanaged US India Scientific Enclave engagements (Current Status Quo)
Low
Low
Medium
High
Managed Engagement with Indian Scientific Enclave tied to non proliferation and commercial goals (Alternative I)
High
High
High
Low
Bypass Indian Scientific Enclave (Alternative II)
Low
Low
Low
High
Next Steps US Sticks India allowing safeguards on Fast breeder reactors India signing the FMCT
US Carrots Offer Indian Scientific Enclave Collaboration on ADS Invite Indian Scientific Enclave to join Gen IV Consortia Joint Funding w/ Govt. Of India for Venture Development
Proliferation risks from “brain drain” & Plutonium threat addressed
Appendix
BHAVINI-PSU To Sell FBR’s
Press Clippings: AEC Response
2006
Acknowledgements • Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki Veress, CNS MIIS • Ms. Elena Sokova, CNS MIIS • Dr. Glynn Wood, MIIS
