Human Population and Economic Growth
Human Population and Economic Growth
Earth’s natural systems
Environmental Change iPat equation: I = f{P, A,T}
I = Impacts P = Population A = Affluence level T = Technology available
Human Population • Population size: past, present, future • Population growth rates Exponential growth and doubling time • Zero population growth Changing fertility rates, infant mortality rates, and life expectancies • Population pyramids • Demographic transitions
Population Size
Fig. 9.1
Map of Countries by Total Population
Current global population: 6.90 billion (worldometers) (World Resources Institute)
Population growth rate is declining
Population growth rates - 2007 World More Developed Less Developed Africa Asia Latin Amer. & Carib. South Amer. North Amer. Europe
1.2 0.1 1.5 2.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 -0.1
Population in Future
Human Population • Population size: past, present, future • Population growth rates Exponential growth and doubling time • Zero population growth Changing fertility rates, infant mortality rates, and life expectancies • Population pyramids • Demographic transitions
Exponential Growth N(t) = N(0)ert N = population, t = time, r = growth rate Example: for 5% growth rate, r = 0.05 Year
Population
1 2 3 4 5
1000 1050 1102.5 1157.63 1215.51
population (N(0) = 1000)
Exponential growth, r = 0.05 (5%) 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0
10
20
30 years
40
50
60
70
80
Doubling Time Time for population to double [N(t) = 2 x N(0)]
N(t) = N(0)ert N(t)/ N(0) = 2 = ert ln 2 = r t (ln 2)/r = t 0.69/r = t So, doubling time is about 70/growth rate in percent. Current doubling time = 69/1.2 = ~ 58 years
Doubling time of world population throughout human history Population (billions)
Year
Time Required
~1 2 4 8 (projected)
1850 1930 1975 2028
30,000 – 50,000 yrs 80 yrs 45 yrs 53 yrs
World’s Largest Countries Rank Country
Pop (millions)
Growth Rate (%)
Doubling Time (yrs)
1 2 3 4 5
China India US Indonesia Brazil
1341 1192 311 238 194
0.5 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.4
138 43 115 49 49
6
Pakistan
169
2.3
30
7
Bangladesh
149
1.9
36
Nigeria Russia Japan
144 142 128
2.5 -0.5 0
28 NA NA
8 9 10
World’s Largest Countries in 2050 Rank
Country
Pop (millions)
1 2 3 4 5
India China US Indonesia Pakistan
1747 1437 420 297 295
6 7 8 9 10
Nigeria Brazil Bangladesh D. R. Congo Philippines
282 260 231 187 150
Developing vs developed world Billions
(7.8-10.8 bill. range)
10 9 8 7 6
9.2 bill Growth rate peaked in 1980s
5 4 Less Developed Regions
3 2 1
More Developed Regions
0 1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Like Fig. 9.4
2050
Human Population • Population size: past, present, future • Population growth rates Exponential growth and doubling time • Zero population growth Changing fertility rates, infant mortality rates, and life expectancies • Population pyramids • Demographic transitions
Achieving Zero Population Growth (ZPG) # of births = # of deaths
Births: # of women of child-bearing age fertility rates Deaths: infant mortality rates life expectancy
Total Fertility Rate (2005-2010)
7-8 0-1 Like Fig. 9.13
Replacement rate: 2.1
Children per Woman
Fertility Levels 8.0 6.0 1950-55 4.0
1970 2007
2.0 0.0 Africa
Asia
Fig. 9.9
Latin N. Amer. Amer & Carib
Europe
World
(Replacement fertility rate = 2.1 children per couple)
Women of child-bearing age & fertility 3
6
2.0
2
2.0
Billions
1.8
4 3
0.9
1
1.3
2
0.6 1 0
0 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050 Women 15 to 49
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Children per woman
5
Education and Fertility
(Population Reference Bureau, 2007)
Total Fertility Rate vs GDP per capita (2009, USD; CIA World Factbook)
Like Fig. 9.12
Achieving Zero Population Growth (ZPG) # of births = # of deaths
Births: # of women of child-bearing age fertility rates Deaths: infant mortality rates life expectancy
Trends in Infant Mortality, by Region Annual number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births
147
112
104
91
89
56
53 32
26 8
World
Africa
Asia
Latin America/ Caribbean
More Developed Regions
1965-1970 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Life Expectancy at Birth 75.8
Life expectancy (yrs)
80
66.1
63.4
60
41.0
More dev.
40
Less dev.
20
0 1950-55
2000-05
2007 Lat. Amer. Asia Africa Europe N. Amer.
73 68 53 75 78
Estimates for Life Expectancy at birth (yrs) CIA World Factbook 2008
The Aging World
Aging of the World’s Population • Old people (>60 yrs) now outnumber young (
Earth’s natural systems
Environmental Change iPat equation: I = f{P, A,T}
I = Impacts P = Population A = Affluence level T = Technology available
Human Population • Population size: past, present, future • Population growth rates Exponential growth and doubling time • Zero population growth Changing fertility rates, infant mortality rates, and life expectancies • Population pyramids • Demographic transitions
Population Size
Fig. 9.1
Map of Countries by Total Population
Current global population: 6.90 billion (worldometers) (World Resources Institute)
Population growth rate is declining
Population growth rates - 2007 World More Developed Less Developed Africa Asia Latin Amer. & Carib. South Amer. North Amer. Europe
1.2 0.1 1.5 2.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.6 -0.1
Population in Future
Human Population • Population size: past, present, future • Population growth rates Exponential growth and doubling time • Zero population growth Changing fertility rates, infant mortality rates, and life expectancies • Population pyramids • Demographic transitions
Exponential Growth N(t) = N(0)ert N = population, t = time, r = growth rate Example: for 5% growth rate, r = 0.05 Year
Population
1 2 3 4 5
1000 1050 1102.5 1157.63 1215.51
population (N(0) = 1000)
Exponential growth, r = 0.05 (5%) 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0
10
20
30 years
40
50
60
70
80
Doubling Time Time for population to double [N(t) = 2 x N(0)]
N(t) = N(0)ert N(t)/ N(0) = 2 = ert ln 2 = r t (ln 2)/r = t 0.69/r = t So, doubling time is about 70/growth rate in percent. Current doubling time = 69/1.2 = ~ 58 years
Doubling time of world population throughout human history Population (billions)
Year
Time Required
~1 2 4 8 (projected)
1850 1930 1975 2028
30,000 – 50,000 yrs 80 yrs 45 yrs 53 yrs
World’s Largest Countries Rank Country
Pop (millions)
Growth Rate (%)
Doubling Time (yrs)
1 2 3 4 5
China India US Indonesia Brazil
1341 1192 311 238 194
0.5 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.4
138 43 115 49 49
6
Pakistan
169
2.3
30
7
Bangladesh
149
1.9
36
Nigeria Russia Japan
144 142 128
2.5 -0.5 0
28 NA NA
8 9 10
World’s Largest Countries in 2050 Rank
Country
Pop (millions)
1 2 3 4 5
India China US Indonesia Pakistan
1747 1437 420 297 295
6 7 8 9 10
Nigeria Brazil Bangladesh D. R. Congo Philippines
282 260 231 187 150
Developing vs developed world Billions
(7.8-10.8 bill. range)
10 9 8 7 6
9.2 bill Growth rate peaked in 1980s
5 4 Less Developed Regions
3 2 1
More Developed Regions
0 1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Like Fig. 9.4
2050
Human Population • Population size: past, present, future • Population growth rates Exponential growth and doubling time • Zero population growth Changing fertility rates, infant mortality rates, and life expectancies • Population pyramids • Demographic transitions
Achieving Zero Population Growth (ZPG) # of births = # of deaths
Births: # of women of child-bearing age fertility rates Deaths: infant mortality rates life expectancy
Total Fertility Rate (2005-2010)
7-8 0-1 Like Fig. 9.13
Replacement rate: 2.1
Children per Woman
Fertility Levels 8.0 6.0 1950-55 4.0
1970 2007
2.0 0.0 Africa
Asia
Fig. 9.9
Latin N. Amer. Amer & Carib
Europe
World
(Replacement fertility rate = 2.1 children per couple)
Women of child-bearing age & fertility 3
6
2.0
2
2.0
Billions
1.8
4 3
0.9
1
1.3
2
0.6 1 0
0 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050 Women 15 to 49
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Children per woman
5
Education and Fertility
(Population Reference Bureau, 2007)
Total Fertility Rate vs GDP per capita (2009, USD; CIA World Factbook)
Like Fig. 9.12
Achieving Zero Population Growth (ZPG) # of births = # of deaths
Births: # of women of child-bearing age fertility rates Deaths: infant mortality rates life expectancy
Trends in Infant Mortality, by Region Annual number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births
147
112
104
91
89
56
53 32
26 8
World
Africa
Asia
Latin America/ Caribbean
More Developed Regions
1965-1970 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Life Expectancy at Birth 75.8
Life expectancy (yrs)
80
66.1
63.4
60
41.0
More dev.
40
Less dev.
20
0 1950-55
2000-05
2007 Lat. Amer. Asia Africa Europe N. Amer.
73 68 53 75 78
Estimates for Life Expectancy at birth (yrs) CIA World Factbook 2008
The Aging World
Aging of the World’s Population • Old people (>60 yrs) now outnumber young (
