IEA
International Energy Agency (IEA) From Science to Policy Opportunities and challenges managed by the IEA Standing Committee on Research and Technology (CERT) by Peter H. Cunz (Chair CERT)
CERT – a major player within the IEA The Standing Committee on Energy Research and Technology CERT • Established in Nov. 1975 • Revised Mandate in Jan. 1997 Actual Strategy 2007-2011 • Vision: “Technology will have a decisive impact” ... • Mission: “Optimising international collaborative RD&D and deployment” ... • 5 Objectives: Focus on leadership, clean energy, communication to policy makers, liaison within the IEA, and collaboration with non-member countries. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
2
MEMBER
CERT – Committee on Energy Research and Technology Fusion Power Co-ordination Committee
Renewable Fossil Fuels End Use Working Party Working Party Working Party
R&D Priority Expert Group
Science IMPLEMENTING IMPLEMENTING IMPLEMENTING IMPLEMENTING Expert Group AGREEMENTS
AGREEMENTS
AGREEMENTS
AGREEMENTS
Oil & Gas Platform INTERSECTORAL IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENTS
INDUSTRY IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
SECRETARIAT
IEA
IEA GOVERNING BOARD IEA
COUNTRIES
The CERT as an organisation
NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES 3
IEA Collaborative RD&D and Dissemination Implementing Agreements (IA) • Buildings (Retrofit, Heating/Cooling, Space Planning) • Electric Appliances • Transport (Motor Fuel, Drive Train, Vehicles, Behaviour) • Industrial Processes • Efficiency in Fossil Fuel Production and Power Generation • (Oil, Gas, Coal, CCS) • Renewable Energies • Nuclear Fusion • Electric Grids (Intelligence, Storage, DSM) • Modelling (MARKAL) • Information Centres, R&D Data IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
4
CURRENT STATUS OF PARTICIPATION
51
453
50
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
5
Who can Participate in an IA? Governmental offices or organizations designated by a government of any country may participate as Contracting Party. (Participation in the CERT or Working Parties is reserved to OECDmembers. Other countries may be invited as Observers.)
Any public or private organization, international organizations, or non-governmental organizations may participate as Sponsor. Each IA signatory designates a representative to sit on the Executive Committee (ExCo) that governs the work of the IA as well as the joint projects. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
6
Steps for participation in an IA If your organization is interested in participating in an IA, the first step is to contact the Chair, the Operating Agent or the Executive Secretary and to discuss together the win-win of working together. Thereafter follows an exchange of formal letters of invitation and acceptance between the Executive Committee of the IA and the interested party. Then approval by the CERT is required.
The final step is the signature of the Implementing Agreement. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
7
Considerations for the CERT Strategy 2012-16 • The world in which we act • Changes that occurred in the last 5 years • Changes (if any) in spirit and style (GB, Standing Committees and Secretariat) • CERT acts on behalf of the GB, but likewise it acts as ambassador for the autonomous Implementing Agreements and Expert Groups • The roles and strategies of the Working Parties and Expert Groups And surely there is more to consider IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
8
A strongly changed environment • Non-OECD countries account for 87% of the increase in global demand between 2006 & 2030, driven largely by China & India. • The shuttered world economy makes new investments difficult. Immediate needs for the BLUE Map Scenario (minus 50% CO2-emissions by 2050) are over 10 Trill $. • Instead of rigorous funding decisions, the G8, G20 and IEA Ministerial Meeting launch new initiatives with unclear budget commitments. • New initiatives such as IPEEC and IRENA compete with the IEA for funds and human resources. new: LCETP IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
9
International players compete for resources
Energy Charter PEEREA
NEET: Network of Expertise in Energy Technology BRICS: Brasil, Russia, India, China und South Afrika IPEEC: Internat. Partnership for En. Efficiency Cooperation
UNECE EE21
IRENA Renewable En.
OECD: IEA / CERT IAs
IRENA: International Renewable Energy Agency PEEREA: Protocol on Energy Efficiency and Related Environmental Aspects EE21: Energy Efficiency Project of the UN Economic Commission for Europe
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
Research EU Funded
IPEEC Energy Efficiency
IEA/NEET BRICS New: Low-carbon Energy Technology Platform
Regional Co-operations Asian Pacific etc. 10
WEO, ETP and Roadmaps: strong publications We know that each scenario is wrong. But the comparison of scenarios offers some insight.” (GianCarlos Tosato, ETSAP) World Energy Outlook (WEO) • The classical best-seller of the IEA
Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) • First issue 2006 with • Joins now the WEO as best-seller Roadmaps • Initiated by G8 in 2008 (Hokkaido, Toyako) IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
11
ETP 2010: The context •
Need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change and energy security challenges.
•
Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done. Which technologies can play a role? What are the costs and benefits?
What policies are needed?
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
12
Gt CO2
ETP 2010: Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios 60 50
Other
40
Buildings Transport
30
Industry 20
Other transformation Power generation
10
0 2007
2030
2050
Baseline
2030
2050
BLUE Map
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
13
Gt CO2
ETP 2010: Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions 60 55
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50
CCS 19% Renewables 17%
45 40
Nuclear 6%
35 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% End-use fuel switching 15%
30
25 20 15
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
10 5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
ETP2010 analysis
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
14
Gt CO2
ETP 2010: World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region 60
55
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50
Other Non-OECD 19% Other OME 14%
45
India 12%
40 35
China 27%
30
Other OECD 10%
25
OECD Europe 7%
20 15
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
United States 11%
10 5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case
ETP2010 analysis
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
15
ETP 2010: Technology policies
• Public RD&D spending must increase 2 to 5 times current level
• Governments need to implement best practices in energy RD&D • A number of enabling actions are also needed: Private sector leadership
Greater government outreach and planning on infrastructure
• •
needs Expanded human capacity with more effective international collaboration Carbon pricing is important, but should be complemented by other policies Policies must be tailored to the technology’s stage of development
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
16
ETP 2010: Policies for supporting low-carbon technologies
Supporting policies need to be appropriately tailored to the stage(s) of technological development. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
17
WEO, ETP and Roadmaps: basis for decisions Scenarios and roadmaps show us problems and needs.
But: how to stay on track? The CERT continuously discusses • The use of Roadmaps for policy making • Are we doing enough for the implementation of Roadmaps? Decisions are easier if popular • Money is tight • Politicians want to be re-elected How to create popularity for our issues? IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
18
The importance of science Wealth decreases if you keep on spending it. Knowledge increases the more you distribute it. • Policy is strongly limited by country-borders, not so science • Innovative policy is dependent on technological progress and input from science We have to foster and strengthen the scientific community by • Stronger international RD&D collaboration • Stronger visibility and outreach of scientific results • More funds for demonstration and pilot plants Meetings of Scientists and Engineers foster the sense of solidarity in an inevitably increasing inter-dependency. To make this possible is the main task of the CERT. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
19
Much information can be found in the Web • Home: www.iea.org • Technology: http://www.iea.org/techno/index.asp
• By Topics: http://www.iea.org/subjectqueries/index.asp • Input for G8 und G20: http://www.iea.org/G8/index.asp • IEA Open Bulletin: http://mailing.iea.org/
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
20
CERT – a major player within the IEA The Standing Committee on Energy Research and Technology CERT • Established in Nov. 1975 • Revised Mandate in Jan. 1997 Actual Strategy 2007-2011 • Vision: “Technology will have a decisive impact” ... • Mission: “Optimising international collaborative RD&D and deployment” ... • 5 Objectives: Focus on leadership, clean energy, communication to policy makers, liaison within the IEA, and collaboration with non-member countries. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
2
MEMBER
CERT – Committee on Energy Research and Technology Fusion Power Co-ordination Committee
Renewable Fossil Fuels End Use Working Party Working Party Working Party
R&D Priority Expert Group
Science IMPLEMENTING IMPLEMENTING IMPLEMENTING IMPLEMENTING Expert Group AGREEMENTS
AGREEMENTS
AGREEMENTS
AGREEMENTS
Oil & Gas Platform INTERSECTORAL IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENTS
INDUSTRY IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
SECRETARIAT
IEA
IEA GOVERNING BOARD IEA
COUNTRIES
The CERT as an organisation
NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES 3
IEA Collaborative RD&D and Dissemination Implementing Agreements (IA) • Buildings (Retrofit, Heating/Cooling, Space Planning) • Electric Appliances • Transport (Motor Fuel, Drive Train, Vehicles, Behaviour) • Industrial Processes • Efficiency in Fossil Fuel Production and Power Generation • (Oil, Gas, Coal, CCS) • Renewable Energies • Nuclear Fusion • Electric Grids (Intelligence, Storage, DSM) • Modelling (MARKAL) • Information Centres, R&D Data IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
4
CURRENT STATUS OF PARTICIPATION
51
453
50
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
5
Who can Participate in an IA? Governmental offices or organizations designated by a government of any country may participate as Contracting Party. (Participation in the CERT or Working Parties is reserved to OECDmembers. Other countries may be invited as Observers.)
Any public or private organization, international organizations, or non-governmental organizations may participate as Sponsor. Each IA signatory designates a representative to sit on the Executive Committee (ExCo) that governs the work of the IA as well as the joint projects. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
6
Steps for participation in an IA If your organization is interested in participating in an IA, the first step is to contact the Chair, the Operating Agent or the Executive Secretary and to discuss together the win-win of working together. Thereafter follows an exchange of formal letters of invitation and acceptance between the Executive Committee of the IA and the interested party. Then approval by the CERT is required.
The final step is the signature of the Implementing Agreement. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
7
Considerations for the CERT Strategy 2012-16 • The world in which we act • Changes that occurred in the last 5 years • Changes (if any) in spirit and style (GB, Standing Committees and Secretariat) • CERT acts on behalf of the GB, but likewise it acts as ambassador for the autonomous Implementing Agreements and Expert Groups • The roles and strategies of the Working Parties and Expert Groups And surely there is more to consider IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
8
A strongly changed environment • Non-OECD countries account for 87% of the increase in global demand between 2006 & 2030, driven largely by China & India. • The shuttered world economy makes new investments difficult. Immediate needs for the BLUE Map Scenario (minus 50% CO2-emissions by 2050) are over 10 Trill $. • Instead of rigorous funding decisions, the G8, G20 and IEA Ministerial Meeting launch new initiatives with unclear budget commitments. • New initiatives such as IPEEC and IRENA compete with the IEA for funds and human resources. new: LCETP IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
9
International players compete for resources
Energy Charter PEEREA
NEET: Network of Expertise in Energy Technology BRICS: Brasil, Russia, India, China und South Afrika IPEEC: Internat. Partnership for En. Efficiency Cooperation
UNECE EE21
IRENA Renewable En.
OECD: IEA / CERT IAs
IRENA: International Renewable Energy Agency PEEREA: Protocol on Energy Efficiency and Related Environmental Aspects EE21: Energy Efficiency Project of the UN Economic Commission for Europe
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
Research EU Funded
IPEEC Energy Efficiency
IEA/NEET BRICS New: Low-carbon Energy Technology Platform
Regional Co-operations Asian Pacific etc. 10
WEO, ETP and Roadmaps: strong publications We know that each scenario is wrong. But the comparison of scenarios offers some insight.” (GianCarlos Tosato, ETSAP) World Energy Outlook (WEO) • The classical best-seller of the IEA
Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) • First issue 2006 with • Joins now the WEO as best-seller Roadmaps • Initiated by G8 in 2008 (Hokkaido, Toyako) IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
11
ETP 2010: The context •
Need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change and energy security challenges.
•
Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done. Which technologies can play a role? What are the costs and benefits?
What policies are needed?
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
12
Gt CO2
ETP 2010: Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios 60 50
Other
40
Buildings Transport
30
Industry 20
Other transformation Power generation
10
0 2007
2030
2050
Baseline
2030
2050
BLUE Map
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
13
Gt CO2
ETP 2010: Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions 60 55
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50
CCS 19% Renewables 17%
45 40
Nuclear 6%
35 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% End-use fuel switching 15%
30
25 20 15
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
10 5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
ETP2010 analysis
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
14
Gt CO2
ETP 2010: World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region 60
55
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50
Other Non-OECD 19% Other OME 14%
45
India 12%
40 35
China 27%
30
Other OECD 10%
25
OECD Europe 7%
20 15
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
United States 11%
10 5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case
ETP2010 analysis
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
15
ETP 2010: Technology policies
• Public RD&D spending must increase 2 to 5 times current level
• Governments need to implement best practices in energy RD&D • A number of enabling actions are also needed: Private sector leadership
Greater government outreach and planning on infrastructure
• •
needs Expanded human capacity with more effective international collaboration Carbon pricing is important, but should be complemented by other policies Policies must be tailored to the technology’s stage of development
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
16
ETP 2010: Policies for supporting low-carbon technologies
Supporting policies need to be appropriately tailored to the stage(s) of technological development. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
17
WEO, ETP and Roadmaps: basis for decisions Scenarios and roadmaps show us problems and needs.
But: how to stay on track? The CERT continuously discusses • The use of Roadmaps for policy making • Are we doing enough for the implementation of Roadmaps? Decisions are easier if popular • Money is tight • Politicians want to be re-elected How to create popularity for our issues? IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
18
The importance of science Wealth decreases if you keep on spending it. Knowledge increases the more you distribute it. • Policy is strongly limited by country-borders, not so science • Innovative policy is dependent on technological progress and input from science We have to foster and strengthen the scientific community by • Stronger international RD&D collaboration • Stronger visibility and outreach of scientific results • More funds for demonstration and pilot plants Meetings of Scientists and Engineers foster the sense of solidarity in an inevitably increasing inter-dependency. To make this possible is the main task of the CERT. IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
19
Much information can be found in the Web • Home: www.iea.org • Technology: http://www.iea.org/techno/index.asp
• By Topics: http://www.iea.org/subjectqueries/index.asp • Input for G8 und G20: http://www.iea.org/G8/index.asp • IEA Open Bulletin: http://mailing.iea.org/
IEA / CERT, Istanbul 13-14 January 2011 Peter Cunz, Chair CERT
20
