Industrial activity increases in May
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY Industrial activity increases in May After a weak April, activity data from the Industrial Survey show a recovery. Both production and capacity utilization – which had fallen sharply last month influenced by the large number of public holidays – are up in May. The capacity utilization rate hit the mark of 66%, the same figure observed in 2015 and two percentage points higher than the one recorded in 2016, albeit below the average for the month
in previous years (73%, considering the average for May in the 2011-2014 period). The more favorable results in May, however, did not affect entrepreneurs’ outlook for the next six months or their willingness to invest. The index measuring entrepreneurs’ expectations remained unchanged from May to June, as did the investment intentions index.
Average capacity utilization rate Percentage (%)
76 74 72
2011
70
2012 2013
68
66% May/17
66
2014 2015
64
2016
62
2017
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
1
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
PERFORMANCE OF INDUSTRY IN MAY 2017
Production grows after atypical month Industrial production edged up in May as compared to April. The production index is once again above the 50-point mark at 53.8 points. This increase in production comes after an atypical month with a large number of holidays. Industrial jobs kept
falling, but at a slower pace. The index of number of employees approached the 50-point dividing line as it rose by 1.1 points to 48.1 points. The distance of the index from the dividing line, which indicates employment stability, is the lowest since April 2014.
Production in May (2011-2017) Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
53.8
Increase 50
51.5
51.6
51.1
Decrease 48.4
45.5
41.7 2011
2012
2013
2014
Production
2015
2016
2017
Dividing line
* Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in production.
Lower idleness levels The average capacity utilization rate reached 66% in May, up by three percentage points on a month-over-month basis. As a result of this growth, the index is two percentage points higher than the figure registered in 2016 and at the same level as in 2015. Despite the
2
increase in capacity utilization, activity remains significantly below usual levels. The index measuring actual-usual capacity utilization increased by 4.4 points to 41.0 points – a far cry from the 50-point dividing line.
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
Actual-usual capacity utilization levels Diffusion index (0-100)*
Above the usual
50
Below the usual
41.9
41.2 41.0
36.6 35.1
34.9
MAY 2014
SEP
JAN 2015
MAY
SEP
JAN 2016
MAY
SEP
JAN 2017
MAY
* Figures below 50 points indicate lower-than-usual capacity utilization for the month.
Stable inventories Inventories remain stable and at the levels planned by industry. Both the inventory index and the index of actual-planned inventory levels
are close to the 50-point mark, at 50.7 points and 49.8 points respectively.
Inventory levels and actual-planned inventory levels Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Increase/ above planned level 50.8
50.9
50.6
50.3 49.9
49.6
50 50.4 49.8 Decrease/ 48.9 under planned level
49.8 49.3
50.7
49.4 49.2
48.9
50.4
50.1
49.9 49.7
48.3
49.0
49.8 49.1
48.6
47.8
46.5 MAY 2016
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
Evolution
NOV
DEC
Dividing line
JAN 2017
FEB
MAR
Actual-planned
* Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in inventory levels or that actual inventory is above planned levels.
3
APR
MAY
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN JUNE 2017
Entrepreneurs’ expectations stay unchanged All expectations indices released by the Industrial Survey remained unchanged in June as compared to the previous month. Entrepreneurs have plans to
step up their purchases of raw materials and reduce employee numbers over the next six months.
Expectation index Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
Demand
Purchases of inputs and raw materials
56.2 Increase
55.1
Increase
53.7
54.8 50
51.0
53.1 52.6
50
48.5 Decrease
Decrease
JUN 2016
AUG
OCT
DEC
Expected demand
FEB 2017
APR
JUN 2016
JUN
Dividing line
AUG
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
APR
Expected purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Exports
Increase
Increase
Dividing line
54.0 52.5
50
49.1
53.5 53.2
50
48.8
JUN
48.7 Decrease
Decrease 45.3
JUN 2016
AUG
OCT
DEC
Expected number of employees
FEB 2017
APR
JUN 2016
JUN
Dividing line
AUG
OCT
Expected exports
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
4
DEC
FEB 2017
APR
Dividing line
JUN
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
Investment intentions remain at low levels Entrepreneurs’ willingness to invest did not change between May and June 2017. The investment intentions index dropped by 0.1 points to 46.5 points. Since February, the index has been hovering around 46.5 and 47 points.
Investment intentions Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
60
55
54.6
50
46.5 45
40
MAY 2014
SEP
JAN 2015
MAY
SEP
JAN 2016
MAY
SEP
JAN 2017
MAY
* The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
RESULTS BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND COMPANY SIZE Performance of industry PRODUCTION EVOLUTION
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES EVOLUTION
CAPACITY UTILIZATION (%)
ACTUAL-USUAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INVENTORIES LEVELS EVOLUTION
ACTUAL-PLANNED INVENTORIES
May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17
Total
45.5
41.6
53.8
43.7
47.0
48.1
64
63
66
35.1
36.6
41.0
48.9
50.9
50.7
49.8
50.4
49.8
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
50.5
44.0
54.2
45.6
45.3
46.5
73
69
68
39.3
39.9
43.8
48.4
51.2
51.2
49.4
49.6
51.1
Manufacturing 45.3
41.6
53.8
43.6
47.1
48.2
64
63
65
34.9
36.5
40.9
48.8
50.8
50.7
49.8
50.3
49.8
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
40.6
41.7
49.8
41.2
45.4
46.1
57
57
59
32.3
35.3
38.7
45.0
48.4
48.6
44.4
45.5
45.5
Medium2
44.4
41.5
52.3
43.1
46.4
47.7
62
61
64
34.6
35.9
40.0
48.7
50.5
50.3
48.6
50.1
49.9
Large3
48.5
41.7
56.6
45.3
48.2
49.4
69
67
70
36.7
37.7
42.6
51.0
52.4
52.0
53.1
52.9
51.8
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive evolution, higher-than-planned inventory levels, or higher-than-usual capacity utilization. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
5
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
Industry’s Expectations DEMAND
Total
EXPORTS VOLUMES
PURCHASES OF RAW MATERIALS
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES
INVESTMENT INTENTIONS*
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
51.0
54.8
55.1
52.5
53.2
53.5
48.5
52.6
53.1
45.3
48.7
48.8
41.2
46.6
46.5
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
50.2
53.3
49.8
52.4
49.2
54.7
45.3
52.4
47.1
43.6
47.4
45.0
43.6
51.1
44.4
Manufacturing
51.1
54.7
55.2
52.3
53.3
53.4
48.7
52.6
53.3
45.4
48.7
48.9
41.1
46.5
46.5
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
47.2
52.6
52.8
46.3
50.6
48.9
45.2
49.6
50.7
42.9
46.9
47.6
29.9
34.0
34.8
Medium2
50.7
55.6
55.0
53.7
53.7
52.3
47.8
52.8
52.5
44.6
48.7
48.3
37.3
42.2
42.6
Large3
53.1
55.4
56.3
54.9
54.3
56.5
50.6
54.0
54.7
46.9
49.5
49.6
48.8
55.2
54.3
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. * The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,354 enterprises, including 963 small, 850 medium and 541 large companies. Data collection period: June 1-12, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondindustrial
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Industrial Maio 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Juliana Lucena do Nascimento, Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY Industrial activity increases in May After a weak April, activity data from the Industrial Survey show a recovery. Both production and capacity utilization – which had fallen sharply last month influenced by the large number of public holidays – are up in May. The capacity utilization rate hit the mark of 66%, the same figure observed in 2015 and two percentage points higher than the one recorded in 2016, albeit below the average for the month
in previous years (73%, considering the average for May in the 2011-2014 period). The more favorable results in May, however, did not affect entrepreneurs’ outlook for the next six months or their willingness to invest. The index measuring entrepreneurs’ expectations remained unchanged from May to June, as did the investment intentions index.
Average capacity utilization rate Percentage (%)
76 74 72
2011
70
2012 2013
68
66% May/17
66
2014 2015
64
2016
62
2017
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
1
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
PERFORMANCE OF INDUSTRY IN MAY 2017
Production grows after atypical month Industrial production edged up in May as compared to April. The production index is once again above the 50-point mark at 53.8 points. This increase in production comes after an atypical month with a large number of holidays. Industrial jobs kept
falling, but at a slower pace. The index of number of employees approached the 50-point dividing line as it rose by 1.1 points to 48.1 points. The distance of the index from the dividing line, which indicates employment stability, is the lowest since April 2014.
Production in May (2011-2017) Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
53.8
Increase 50
51.5
51.6
51.1
Decrease 48.4
45.5
41.7 2011
2012
2013
2014
Production
2015
2016
2017
Dividing line
* Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in production.
Lower idleness levels The average capacity utilization rate reached 66% in May, up by three percentage points on a month-over-month basis. As a result of this growth, the index is two percentage points higher than the figure registered in 2016 and at the same level as in 2015. Despite the
2
increase in capacity utilization, activity remains significantly below usual levels. The index measuring actual-usual capacity utilization increased by 4.4 points to 41.0 points – a far cry from the 50-point dividing line.
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
Actual-usual capacity utilization levels Diffusion index (0-100)*
Above the usual
50
Below the usual
41.9
41.2 41.0
36.6 35.1
34.9
MAY 2014
SEP
JAN 2015
MAY
SEP
JAN 2016
MAY
SEP
JAN 2017
MAY
* Figures below 50 points indicate lower-than-usual capacity utilization for the month.
Stable inventories Inventories remain stable and at the levels planned by industry. Both the inventory index and the index of actual-planned inventory levels
are close to the 50-point mark, at 50.7 points and 49.8 points respectively.
Inventory levels and actual-planned inventory levels Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Increase/ above planned level 50.8
50.9
50.6
50.3 49.9
49.6
50 50.4 49.8 Decrease/ 48.9 under planned level
49.8 49.3
50.7
49.4 49.2
48.9
50.4
50.1
49.9 49.7
48.3
49.0
49.8 49.1
48.6
47.8
46.5 MAY 2016
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
Evolution
NOV
DEC
Dividing line
JAN 2017
FEB
MAR
Actual-planned
* Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in inventory levels or that actual inventory is above planned levels.
3
APR
MAY
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN JUNE 2017
Entrepreneurs’ expectations stay unchanged All expectations indices released by the Industrial Survey remained unchanged in June as compared to the previous month. Entrepreneurs have plans to
step up their purchases of raw materials and reduce employee numbers over the next six months.
Expectation index Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
Demand
Purchases of inputs and raw materials
56.2 Increase
55.1
Increase
53.7
54.8 50
51.0
53.1 52.6
50
48.5 Decrease
Decrease
JUN 2016
AUG
OCT
DEC
Expected demand
FEB 2017
APR
JUN 2016
JUN
Dividing line
AUG
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
APR
Expected purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Exports
Increase
Increase
Dividing line
54.0 52.5
50
49.1
53.5 53.2
50
48.8
JUN
48.7 Decrease
Decrease 45.3
JUN 2016
AUG
OCT
DEC
Expected number of employees
FEB 2017
APR
JUN 2016
JUN
Dividing line
AUG
OCT
Expected exports
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
4
DEC
FEB 2017
APR
Dividing line
JUN
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
Investment intentions remain at low levels Entrepreneurs’ willingness to invest did not change between May and June 2017. The investment intentions index dropped by 0.1 points to 46.5 points. Since February, the index has been hovering around 46.5 and 47 points.
Investment intentions Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
60
55
54.6
50
46.5 45
40
MAY 2014
SEP
JAN 2015
MAY
SEP
JAN 2016
MAY
SEP
JAN 2017
MAY
* The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
RESULTS BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND COMPANY SIZE Performance of industry PRODUCTION EVOLUTION
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES EVOLUTION
CAPACITY UTILIZATION (%)
ACTUAL-USUAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INVENTORIES LEVELS EVOLUTION
ACTUAL-PLANNED INVENTORIES
May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17 May/16 Apr/17 May/17
Total
45.5
41.6
53.8
43.7
47.0
48.1
64
63
66
35.1
36.6
41.0
48.9
50.9
50.7
49.8
50.4
49.8
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
50.5
44.0
54.2
45.6
45.3
46.5
73
69
68
39.3
39.9
43.8
48.4
51.2
51.2
49.4
49.6
51.1
Manufacturing 45.3
41.6
53.8
43.6
47.1
48.2
64
63
65
34.9
36.5
40.9
48.8
50.8
50.7
49.8
50.3
49.8
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
40.6
41.7
49.8
41.2
45.4
46.1
57
57
59
32.3
35.3
38.7
45.0
48.4
48.6
44.4
45.5
45.5
Medium2
44.4
41.5
52.3
43.1
46.4
47.7
62
61
64
34.6
35.9
40.0
48.7
50.5
50.3
48.6
50.1
49.9
Large3
48.5
41.7
56.6
45.3
48.2
49.4
69
67
70
36.7
37.7
42.6
51.0
52.4
52.0
53.1
52.9
51.8
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive evolution, higher-than-planned inventory levels, or higher-than-usual capacity utilization. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
5
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 5 • May 2017
Industry’s Expectations DEMAND
Total
EXPORTS VOLUMES
PURCHASES OF RAW MATERIALS
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES
INVESTMENT INTENTIONS*
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
Jun/16
May/17
Jun/17
51.0
54.8
55.1
52.5
53.2
53.5
48.5
52.6
53.1
45.3
48.7
48.8
41.2
46.6
46.5
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
50.2
53.3
49.8
52.4
49.2
54.7
45.3
52.4
47.1
43.6
47.4
45.0
43.6
51.1
44.4
Manufacturing
51.1
54.7
55.2
52.3
53.3
53.4
48.7
52.6
53.3
45.4
48.7
48.9
41.1
46.5
46.5
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
47.2
52.6
52.8
46.3
50.6
48.9
45.2
49.6
50.7
42.9
46.9
47.6
29.9
34.0
34.8
Medium2
50.7
55.6
55.0
53.7
53.7
52.3
47.8
52.8
52.5
44.6
48.7
48.3
37.3
42.2
42.6
Large3
53.1
55.4
56.3
54.9
54.3
56.5
50.6
54.0
54.7
46.9
49.5
49.6
48.8
55.2
54.3
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. * The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,354 enterprises, including 963 small, 850 medium and 541 large companies. Data collection period: June 1-12, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondindustrial
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Industrial Maio 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Juliana Lucena do Nascimento, Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
