Industrial activity keeps growing
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 1 • January 2018
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity keeps growing The January 2018 issue of the Industrial Indicators survey shows that industrial activity remains on a recovery path. Hours worked in production have risen for the third consecutive month now, accumulating growth of 1.9% during the period. The average capacity utilization rate increased again and reached 78.1% – its highest point since July 2015. While real sales held virtually steady in the month (down by 0.1%), the indicator is up by 7.7%
from January 2017, reflecting the recovery started last year. In the labor market, the indicators of real average earnings of industrial workers and total payroll have increased again after falling for two consecutive months. However, special mention should be made of the 0.5% decrease in employment in January – even after seasonal adjustments. This was the most pronounced monthly drop in the indicator since September 2016.
Industrial indicators - January 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from December 2017
Ç da Construção
Média
Indústria de Energia
Indústrias Diversas
Grande
REAL SALES Down by 0.1%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.5%
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up by 0.4%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.5%
Ç
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.2 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 0.2%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 1 • January 2018
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Stable sales at the start of the year
130
Compared with December 2017, real sales in industry remained virtually stable: down by 0.1% in seasonally adjustment terms. This marked the second consecutive month of small declines in the index (in December, it fell by 0.3%). Still, real sales in industry are up by 7.7% in January 2018 on a year-over-year basis.
120
110
100
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Upward trend in employment comes to a halt
114
110
106
102
98
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Industrial jobs dropped by 0.5% in January 2018 as compared to the same month last year in the seasonally adjusted series. This was the most pronounced month-over-month decline since September 2016, when the index dropped by 0.8%. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that this is the first negative result after three months of growth: + 0.2% in October and November and +0.5% in December (these three results were revised upward in January). Employment experienced a 0.5% year-over-year decline in January 2018.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked grow for third month straight
105
100
In seasonally adjusted terms, hours worked in production posted growth of 0.4% in January 2018, marking the third consecutive monthly increase in the indicator (+ 0.8% in November and + 0.7% in December). Hours worked increased by 1.1% in January 2018 as compared to the same month the year before.
95
90
85
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 1 • January 2018
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
January sees increase in total payroll
130
Real total payroll recorded a 0.5% increase in January 2018 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The indicator is up after falling for two consecutive months (-0.8% in November and -0.7% in December). In January 2018, real total payroll is down by 0.3% from the figure observed in January 2017.
125
120
115
110
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Earnings are also up
130
Real average earnings of industrial workers posted a seasonally adjusted month-over-month increase of 0.2% in January 2018. This increase breaks a two-month downward trend (-0.8% in November and -0.9% in December). The indicator for January 2018 is 0.2% lower than that observed in the same month the year before.
125
120
115
110
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization continues to trend upward
83
81
Grande
78.1%
79
77
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
3
Capacity utilization starts 2018 at 78.1% in the seasonally adjusted series, down by 0.2 percentage points from December 2017. The indicator is 0.6 percentage points above the figure recorded in January 2017 and hit its highest point since July 2015, when it amounted to 78.5%.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 1 • January 2018
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
JAN18/ DEC17
JAN18/ DEC17 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
JAN18/ JAN17
JAN-JAN18/ JAN-JAN17
Real sales1
-9.5
-0.1
7.7
7.7
Worked hours in production
2.0
0.4
1.1
1.1
Employment
-0.8
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
Real total payroll2
-17.6
0.5
-0.3
-0.3
Real average earnings2
-16.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
JAN18
DEC17
JAN17
Capacity utilization
76.5
76.1
75.9
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.1
77.9
77.5
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais janeiro/2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity keeps growing The January 2018 issue of the Industrial Indicators survey shows that industrial activity remains on a recovery path. Hours worked in production have risen for the third consecutive month now, accumulating growth of 1.9% during the period. The average capacity utilization rate increased again and reached 78.1% – its highest point since July 2015. While real sales held virtually steady in the month (down by 0.1%), the indicator is up by 7.7%
from January 2017, reflecting the recovery started last year. In the labor market, the indicators of real average earnings of industrial workers and total payroll have increased again after falling for two consecutive months. However, special mention should be made of the 0.5% decrease in employment in January – even after seasonal adjustments. This was the most pronounced monthly drop in the indicator since September 2016.
Industrial indicators - January 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from December 2017
Ç da Construção
Média
Indústria de Energia
Indústrias Diversas
Grande
REAL SALES Down by 0.1%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.5%
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up by 0.4%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.5%
Ç
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.2 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 0.2%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 1 • January 2018
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Stable sales at the start of the year
130
Compared with December 2017, real sales in industry remained virtually stable: down by 0.1% in seasonally adjustment terms. This marked the second consecutive month of small declines in the index (in December, it fell by 0.3%). Still, real sales in industry are up by 7.7% in January 2018 on a year-over-year basis.
120
110
100
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Upward trend in employment comes to a halt
114
110
106
102
98
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Industrial jobs dropped by 0.5% in January 2018 as compared to the same month last year in the seasonally adjusted series. This was the most pronounced month-over-month decline since September 2016, when the index dropped by 0.8%. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that this is the first negative result after three months of growth: + 0.2% in October and November and +0.5% in December (these three results were revised upward in January). Employment experienced a 0.5% year-over-year decline in January 2018.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked grow for third month straight
105
100
In seasonally adjusted terms, hours worked in production posted growth of 0.4% in January 2018, marking the third consecutive monthly increase in the indicator (+ 0.8% in November and + 0.7% in December). Hours worked increased by 1.1% in January 2018 as compared to the same month the year before.
95
90
85
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 1 • January 2018
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
January sees increase in total payroll
130
Real total payroll recorded a 0.5% increase in January 2018 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The indicator is up after falling for two consecutive months (-0.8% in November and -0.7% in December). In January 2018, real total payroll is down by 0.3% from the figure observed in January 2017.
125
120
115
110
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Earnings are also up
130
Real average earnings of industrial workers posted a seasonally adjusted month-over-month increase of 0.2% in January 2018. This increase breaks a two-month downward trend (-0.8% in November and -0.9% in December). The indicator for January 2018 is 0.2% lower than that observed in the same month the year before.
125
120
115
110
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization continues to trend upward
83
81
Grande
78.1%
79
77
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jan/18
3
Capacity utilization starts 2018 at 78.1% in the seasonally adjusted series, down by 0.2 percentage points from December 2017. The indicator is 0.6 percentage points above the figure recorded in January 2017 and hit its highest point since July 2015, when it amounted to 78.5%.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 1 • January 2018
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
JAN18/ DEC17
JAN18/ DEC17 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
JAN18/ JAN17
JAN-JAN18/ JAN-JAN17
Real sales1
-9.5
-0.1
7.7
7.7
Worked hours in production
2.0
0.4
1.1
1.1
Employment
-0.8
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
Real total payroll2
-17.6
0.5
-0.3
-0.3
Real average earnings2
-16.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
JAN18
DEC17
JAN17
Capacity utilization
76.5
76.1
75.9
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.1
77.9
77.5
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais janeiro/2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
