Industry keeps recovering AWS
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
20 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY Industry keeps recovering CNI’s Industrial Survey shows that industry is still on a recovery track and that industrial activity is up on a year-on-year basis. Unlike the previous two years, industrial production edged up between September and October. Capacity utilization remains at low levels, but the indicator is higher than that registered in October 2016 and 2015. Inventory, which exceeded planned levels in September, declined in October. It also worth noting that industrial jobs are no longer declining, as indicated by the index of
number of employees. The indicator is virtually on the dividing line for the first time since November 2013. Expectations remain optimistic, even though they did not improve over the past two months. While entrepreneurs expect demand, export volumes, and purchases of raw materials to increase, they also believe that industrial employment will hold steady. Investment intentions in turn remain on the rise. The index has not declined in five months, accumulating growth of 4.1 points in the year.
Production in October (2010-2017) Diffusion index (0-100)*
54.9
54.5
52.7
52.6
Increase 50
50.8
Decrease
48.8 45.8 44.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
Production
2014
Dividing line
* Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in production.
1
2015
2016
2017
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
PERFORMANCE OF INDUSTRY IN OCTOBER 2017
Production on the rise as employment holds steady Industrial production posted growth in October, with the production index reaching 52.6 points. The index for October 2017 surpassed the figures observed in October 2015 and 2016, which stood below 50 points and thus showed a decline in production. It also exceeded the indicator recorded in 2014, which reached 50.8 points and thus indicated growth – albeit weaker than in 2017.
The index of number of employees shows that the layoff cycle came to an end in October. The index, which stood virtually on the dividing line at 49.7 points, shows stable employment levels for the first time since 2013.
Number of employees Diffusion index (0-100)*
Increase 50 Decrease
OCT 2013
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
JUN
OCT
Number of employees
FEB 2016
JUN
OCT
FEB 2017
JUN
OCT
Dividing line
* Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in number of employees.
Capacity utilization rate grows by one percentage point The capacity utilization rate rose by 1 percentage point and reached 67% in October. The indicator is up by 2 percentage points from the figure observed in the same month in 2016 and by 1 percentage point from 2015. The index, however, remains at a low level as it is 7 percentage points lower than the average for the month registered between 2011 (beginning of the series) and 2014.
2
The indicator measuring actual-usual capacity utilization levels increased by 1.2 points to 43 points. Although still a far cry from the 50-point mark between below and above usual activity levels for the month, the index is 6.2 points higher than that recorded in October 2016.
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
Average capacity utilization rate Percentage (%)
76 74 72
2011
70
2012
68
2013
67% Oct/17
2014
66
2015
64
2016
62
2017
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Inventories return to adjusted levels Inventory returned to the levels planned by companies after slightly exceeding desired levels in September. The inventory index amounted to
49.3 points, while the indicator of actual-planned inventory levels dropped by 0.8 points, down from 50.7 points to 49.9 points.
Indices of inventory and actual-planned inventory Diffusion index (0-100)*
Increase/ above planned level
49.9
50
50.1
50.3
50.9 50.4
50.7
50.9
51.1 50.7 51.0
50.1
49.9
49.8 49.4
49.9
49.5
49.6
AUG
SEP
49.3
49.1
49.0 Decrease/ under planned level
50.0
48.3
46.5 OCT 2016
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
FEB
MAR
Evolution
APR
MAY
Dividing line
JUN
JUL
Actual-planned
* Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in inventory levels or higher-than-planned actual inventory levels.
3
OCT
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
EXPECTATIONS OF INDUSTRY IN NOVEMBER 2017
Expectations remain optimistic Overall, expectations fell slightly in November after slowing down in October. Despite the declines seen this month, the indices measuring expected demand, purchases of raw materials and export volumes are still above the 50-point
mark, meaning they indicate optimism. The index of expected number of employees held steady as it stood virtually on the dividing line. At 49.2 points, the index shows an expected stability in industrial employment.
Expectation indices Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
Demand
Purchases of inputs and raw materials 56.9 55.7
Increase
Increase
54.5 53.2
54.4 50 49.9
52.5
50 47.5
Decrease
Decrease
JAN 2017
NOV 2016
MAR
JUL
MAY
Expected demand
SEP
NOV
NOV 2016
Dividing line
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY
JUL
SEP
Expected purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Exports
Increase
Increase
NOV
Dividing line
52.9
50 49.6
52.2
49.6
49.2 Decrease
Decrease 45.4
NOV 2016
52.7
50
49.1
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY
Expected number of employees
JUL
SEP
NOV 2016
NOV
Dividing line
JAN 2017
MAR
Expected exports
* Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
4
MAY
JUL
SEP
Dividing line
NOV
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
Investment intentions resume growth The index measuring investment intentions grew by 1 point between October and November to 50.6 points. The indicator, which has not dropped in five months, reached its highest point since February 2015 – compared with November 2016, it is up by 6.7 points.
Investment intentions Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
55
52.1 50.6 51
47
43
39
NOV 2014
MAR 2015
JUL
NOV
MAR 2016
JUL
NOV
MAR 2017
JUL
NOV
* The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
RESULTS BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND COMPANY SIZE Performance of industry PRODUCTION EVOLUTION
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES EVOLUTION
CAPACITY UTILIZATION (%)
ACTUAL-USUAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INVENTORIES LEVELS EVOLUTION
ACTUAL-PLANNED INVENTORIES
Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17
Total
45.8
48.1
52.6
45.8
49.0
49.7
65
66
67
36.8
41.8
43.0
49.9
49.6
49.3
50.6
50.7
49.9
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
46.8
44.0
52.2
46.1
46.4
47.2
71
69
72
40.5
41.7
44.9
50.0
49.0
44.8
45.9
50.7
46.1
Manufacturing 45.8
48.2
52.7
45.8
49.1
49.8
65
66
67
36.7
41.7
43.0
50.0
49.7
49.4
50.8
50.7
50.0
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
42.9
47.3
50.2
44.8
47.3
48.1
59
59
61
35.4
39.7
41.3
45.8
47.2
47.9
44.4
47.3
45.8
Medium2
44.8
47.4
51.4
45.4
47.8
48.7
63
64
65
35.8
39.8
42.1
50.0
48.1
48.8
49.9
49.3
50.0
Large3
47.7
48.9
54.5
46.6
50.5
51.1
70
71
72
38.1
43.8
44.4
51.9
51.6
50.3
54.0
53.2
51.9
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive evolution, higher-than-planned inventory levels, or higher-than-usual capacity utilization. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
5
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
Industry’s Expectations DEMAND
Total
EXPORTS VOLUMES
PURCHASES OF RAW MATERIALS
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES
INVESTMENT INTENTIONS*
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
49.9
55.7
54.4
49.6
52.9
52.2
47.5
53.2
52.5
45.4
49.1
49.2
43.9
49.6
50.6
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
43.4
49.4
48.0
44.0
53.8
52.9
42.7
48.9
50.2
43.8
45.7
46.0
49.3
52.2
52.5
Manufacturing
50.2
55.9
54.7
49.9
52.8
52.3
47.8
53.4
52.6
45.5
49.1
49.3
43.7
49.6
50.6
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
48.4
53.6
52.3
47.8
50.5
48.8
46.2
51.6
50.2
45.0
47.9
47.9
32.5
37.7
37.9
Medium2
49.6
54.8
54.2
48.5
53.0
52.0
48.5
52.5
52.1
45.5
48.4
48.9
40.2
44.9
45.8
Large3
50.8
57.2
55.5
51.1
54.0
54.0
47.7
54.4
53.8
45.6
50.0
50.0
51.5
58.0
59.5
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. * The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,379 enterprises, including 965 small, 856 medium and 558 large companies. Data collection period: November 1-14, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondindustrial
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Industrial Outubro 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
20 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY Industry keeps recovering CNI’s Industrial Survey shows that industry is still on a recovery track and that industrial activity is up on a year-on-year basis. Unlike the previous two years, industrial production edged up between September and October. Capacity utilization remains at low levels, but the indicator is higher than that registered in October 2016 and 2015. Inventory, which exceeded planned levels in September, declined in October. It also worth noting that industrial jobs are no longer declining, as indicated by the index of
number of employees. The indicator is virtually on the dividing line for the first time since November 2013. Expectations remain optimistic, even though they did not improve over the past two months. While entrepreneurs expect demand, export volumes, and purchases of raw materials to increase, they also believe that industrial employment will hold steady. Investment intentions in turn remain on the rise. The index has not declined in five months, accumulating growth of 4.1 points in the year.
Production in October (2010-2017) Diffusion index (0-100)*
54.9
54.5
52.7
52.6
Increase 50
50.8
Decrease
48.8 45.8 44.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
Production
2014
Dividing line
* Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in production.
1
2015
2016
2017
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
PERFORMANCE OF INDUSTRY IN OCTOBER 2017
Production on the rise as employment holds steady Industrial production posted growth in October, with the production index reaching 52.6 points. The index for October 2017 surpassed the figures observed in October 2015 and 2016, which stood below 50 points and thus showed a decline in production. It also exceeded the indicator recorded in 2014, which reached 50.8 points and thus indicated growth – albeit weaker than in 2017.
The index of number of employees shows that the layoff cycle came to an end in October. The index, which stood virtually on the dividing line at 49.7 points, shows stable employment levels for the first time since 2013.
Number of employees Diffusion index (0-100)*
Increase 50 Decrease
OCT 2013
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
JUN
OCT
Number of employees
FEB 2016
JUN
OCT
FEB 2017
JUN
OCT
Dividing line
* Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in number of employees.
Capacity utilization rate grows by one percentage point The capacity utilization rate rose by 1 percentage point and reached 67% in October. The indicator is up by 2 percentage points from the figure observed in the same month in 2016 and by 1 percentage point from 2015. The index, however, remains at a low level as it is 7 percentage points lower than the average for the month registered between 2011 (beginning of the series) and 2014.
2
The indicator measuring actual-usual capacity utilization levels increased by 1.2 points to 43 points. Although still a far cry from the 50-point mark between below and above usual activity levels for the month, the index is 6.2 points higher than that recorded in October 2016.
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
Average capacity utilization rate Percentage (%)
76 74 72
2011
70
2012
68
2013
67% Oct/17
2014
66
2015
64
2016
62
2017
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Inventories return to adjusted levels Inventory returned to the levels planned by companies after slightly exceeding desired levels in September. The inventory index amounted to
49.3 points, while the indicator of actual-planned inventory levels dropped by 0.8 points, down from 50.7 points to 49.9 points.
Indices of inventory and actual-planned inventory Diffusion index (0-100)*
Increase/ above planned level
49.9
50
50.1
50.3
50.9 50.4
50.7
50.9
51.1 50.7 51.0
50.1
49.9
49.8 49.4
49.9
49.5
49.6
AUG
SEP
49.3
49.1
49.0 Decrease/ under planned level
50.0
48.3
46.5 OCT 2016
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
FEB
MAR
Evolution
APR
MAY
Dividing line
JUN
JUL
Actual-planned
* Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in inventory levels or higher-than-planned actual inventory levels.
3
OCT
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
EXPECTATIONS OF INDUSTRY IN NOVEMBER 2017
Expectations remain optimistic Overall, expectations fell slightly in November after slowing down in October. Despite the declines seen this month, the indices measuring expected demand, purchases of raw materials and export volumes are still above the 50-point
mark, meaning they indicate optimism. The index of expected number of employees held steady as it stood virtually on the dividing line. At 49.2 points, the index shows an expected stability in industrial employment.
Expectation indices Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
Demand
Purchases of inputs and raw materials 56.9 55.7
Increase
Increase
54.5 53.2
54.4 50 49.9
52.5
50 47.5
Decrease
Decrease
JAN 2017
NOV 2016
MAR
JUL
MAY
Expected demand
SEP
NOV
NOV 2016
Dividing line
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY
JUL
SEP
Expected purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Exports
Increase
Increase
NOV
Dividing line
52.9
50 49.6
52.2
49.6
49.2 Decrease
Decrease 45.4
NOV 2016
52.7
50
49.1
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY
Expected number of employees
JUL
SEP
NOV 2016
NOV
Dividing line
JAN 2017
MAR
Expected exports
* Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
4
MAY
JUL
SEP
Dividing line
NOV
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
Investment intentions resume growth The index measuring investment intentions grew by 1 point between October and November to 50.6 points. The indicator, which has not dropped in five months, reached its highest point since February 2015 – compared with November 2016, it is up by 6.7 points.
Investment intentions Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
55
52.1 50.6 51
47
43
39
NOV 2014
MAR 2015
JUL
NOV
MAR 2016
JUL
NOV
MAR 2017
JUL
NOV
* The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
RESULTS BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND COMPANY SIZE Performance of industry PRODUCTION EVOLUTION
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES EVOLUTION
CAPACITY UTILIZATION (%)
ACTUAL-USUAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INVENTORIES LEVELS EVOLUTION
ACTUAL-PLANNED INVENTORIES
Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17 Oct/16 Sep/17 Oct/17
Total
45.8
48.1
52.6
45.8
49.0
49.7
65
66
67
36.8
41.8
43.0
49.9
49.6
49.3
50.6
50.7
49.9
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
46.8
44.0
52.2
46.1
46.4
47.2
71
69
72
40.5
41.7
44.9
50.0
49.0
44.8
45.9
50.7
46.1
Manufacturing 45.8
48.2
52.7
45.8
49.1
49.8
65
66
67
36.7
41.7
43.0
50.0
49.7
49.4
50.8
50.7
50.0
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
42.9
47.3
50.2
44.8
47.3
48.1
59
59
61
35.4
39.7
41.3
45.8
47.2
47.9
44.4
47.3
45.8
Medium2
44.8
47.4
51.4
45.4
47.8
48.7
63
64
65
35.8
39.8
42.1
50.0
48.1
48.8
49.9
49.3
50.0
Large3
47.7
48.9
54.5
46.6
50.5
51.1
70
71
72
38.1
43.8
44.4
51.9
51.6
50.3
54.0
53.2
51.9
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive evolution, higher-than-planned inventory levels, or higher-than-usual capacity utilization. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
5
Industrial Survey ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 20 • Number 10 • October 2017
Industry’s Expectations DEMAND
Total
EXPORTS VOLUMES
PURCHASES OF RAW MATERIALS
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES
INVESTMENT INTENTIONS*
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
Nov/16
Oct/17
Nov/17
49.9
55.7
54.4
49.6
52.9
52.2
47.5
53.2
52.5
45.4
49.1
49.2
43.9
49.6
50.6
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Mining and quarrying
43.4
49.4
48.0
44.0
53.8
52.9
42.7
48.9
50.2
43.8
45.7
46.0
49.3
52.2
52.5
Manufacturing
50.2
55.9
54.7
49.9
52.8
52.3
47.8
53.4
52.6
45.5
49.1
49.3
43.7
49.6
50.6
BY COMPANY SIZE Small1
48.4
53.6
52.3
47.8
50.5
48.8
46.2
51.6
50.2
45.0
47.9
47.9
32.5
37.7
37.9
Medium2
49.6
54.8
54.2
48.5
53.0
52.0
48.5
52.5
52.1
45.5
48.4
48.9
40.2
44.9
45.8
Large3
50.8
57.2
55.5
51.1
54.0
54.0
47.7
54.4
53.8
45.6
50.0
50.0
51.5
58.0
59.5
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. * The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest. 1 - Company with 10 to 49 employees. 2 - Company with 50 to 249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,379 enterprises, including 965 small, 856 medium and 558 large companies. Data collection period: November 1-14, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondindustrial
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Industrial Outubro 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
