ISS, 1 July 2016
VIOLENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE FUTURE OF THE ANC What do rising levels of protest and a depreciating economic and political climate mean for South Africa’s future?
Jakkie Cilliers & Ciara Aucoin, African Futures and Innovation, Institute for Security Studies (ISS)
SCOPE
1. Previous work 2. Scenarios to 2024 3. Violence: where we are, where we’re headed 4. Policy recommendations & conclusion
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
3
PREVIOUS FORECASTS
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
4
PREVIOUS SCENARIOS
MANDELA MAGIC
BAFANA BAFANA
A NATION DIVIDED South African futures
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
5
1. Economics, violence and instability in South Africa ISS paper no 293
2. South Africa Scenarios to 2024 ISS paper no 294
3. Rainbow at risk Policy Brief no 83 All available at www.issafrica.org/publications [email protected] [email protected]
2014 ELECTION FORECAST VS ACTUAL RESULTS 100 90 80 % of electorate
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ANC
DA Forecast
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
EFF
Others
Actual
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
7
Scenarios to 2024
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
9
THE CHALLENGE • South Africa squarely in a middle-income trap • Risk of long-term low growth trajectory • Decreased government effectiveness & rising corruption • Escape possible… • But developments in the ANC are key
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
10
ELECTIONS AND THE ANC NATIONAL CONFERENCE
2016 Local Elec
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
Dec 2017 Nat Conf
2019 Nat/ Prov Elec
2021 Local Elec
2024 Nat/ Prov Elec
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
11
DOMINANT FACTIONS IN THE ANC (DUMMY’S GUIDE)
TRADITIONALISTS
• • • • • •
Rural, black nationalist Socially conservative Loyal to Jacob Zuma Dominated by Zulu speakers Centralised state Redistributive policies and not constitutionalists
Ø Premier League and others
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
REFORMERS
• Social democrats • Typically urban • Supported by born-free voters with jobs • Multi-ethnic • Mixed economy & inclusive economic growth Ø Gauteng ANC and others
12
ANC MEMBERSHIPS (PAID-UP) 2007-2015
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
13
FOUR SCENARIOS
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
14
KEY DEVELOPMENTS 2016/2017
• Intra-ANC violence to inter-party violence to 3 Aug 2016 • Investment downgrade • Increase in social discord, poverty, unemployment & crime • ANC absorbed in internal squabbles • Factional violence in ANC, particularly KZN • Uncertain outcome in Dec 2017
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
15
SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS IN PAPER
• Reformers or traditionalists?
MANDELA MAGIC Reformers triumph in ANC
• Time before SA regains investment status
BAFANA BAFANA
• Level of minimum wage
Our current pathway
• Nature of nuclear build
A NATION DIVIDED
• Economic growth and structure 2017 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
Traditionalists triumph, ANC turns populist but could split
2024 @jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
16
CURRENT SEATS IN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
20
BAFANA BAFANA FORECAST
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
21
MANDELA MAGIC FORECAST
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
25
NATION DIVIDED FORECAST
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
27
Protest and violence Where we are, where we’re headed
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
28
PROTEST AND VIOLENCE: KEY FINDINGS
• SA culture of violence • Large increase since 2010/2011 • Majority peaceful yet increasingly violent • Fuelled by long-standing grievances • Murder & armed robbery increasing since 2012 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
29
VIOLENCE - A FORM OF COMMUNICATION ATTERIDGEVILLE, TSHWANE, 21 JUNE 2016
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
Photo credit: Aki Anastasiou (@AkiAnatasiou) via Twitter
30
SAPS PUBLIC GATHERINGS DATA, 2004/5 TO 2014/5 Peaceful Events
Violent Events
14000 12000 10000
11668 10832
10156
8000
12451
11843 10517
8981 7993
7858 6640
6342
6000 4000 2000
660
965
753
755
753
1014
974
1226
1882
1907
2289
0
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
33
SOUTH AFRICA’S GOVERNANCE INDICATORS AND RIOTS AND PROTESTS, 1997-2014 • Inverse relationship between public perception of government effectiveness and number of riots and protests • And with control of corruption.
Source: ACLED, Version 6, 2016; World Governance Indicators, 2015
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
34
ANC SUPPORT AND RIOTS AND PROTESTS
Source: ACLED, Version 6, 2016; Afrobarometer Round 6, 2016 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
35
SOUTH AFRICA PUBLIC VIOLENCE BY LOCATION AND MOTIVATION
Source: ISS Public Violence Monitor 2016 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
36
SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS IN PAPER
• To Aug 2016 – between parties MANDELA MAGIC
• To Dec 2017 internal ANC violence
Reformers triumph in ANC
BAFANA BAFANA
• Direction thereafter unclear
Our current pathway
• If no growth, jobs, etc, violence will increase
Traditionalists triumph, ANC turns populist but could split
• Social control agencies? 2017 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
A NATION DIVIDED
2024 @jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
37
Policy recommendations & Conclusion
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
45
OUR ANALYSIS POINT OUT THAT
Things will get worse before they get better
No
South Africa has considerable growth potential © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
46
IN SUMMARY
Mandela Magic outcomes
Inclusive economy
Knowledge economy
Only jobs can significantly reduce inequality in medium/ long term © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
47
POLITICALLY A SOURCE OF HOPE?
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
48
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Reclaim political inclusion • Establish economic inclusion • Or provide coherent leadership © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
49
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
51
Violence, economics and the future of the ANC
African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria 21 June 2016 © Institute for Security Studies
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
53
Violence, economics and the future of the ANC
African Futures and Innovation, Institute for Security Studies 29 June 2016 © Institute for Security Studies
Jakkie Cilliers & Ciara Aucoin, African Futures and Innovation, Institute for Security Studies (ISS)
SCOPE
1. Previous work 2. Scenarios to 2024 3. Violence: where we are, where we’re headed 4. Policy recommendations & conclusion
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
3
PREVIOUS FORECASTS
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
4
PREVIOUS SCENARIOS
MANDELA MAGIC
BAFANA BAFANA
A NATION DIVIDED South African futures
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
5
1. Economics, violence and instability in South Africa ISS paper no 293
2. South Africa Scenarios to 2024 ISS paper no 294
3. Rainbow at risk Policy Brief no 83 All available at www.issafrica.org/publications [email protected] [email protected]
2014 ELECTION FORECAST VS ACTUAL RESULTS 100 90 80 % of electorate
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ANC
DA Forecast
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
EFF
Others
Actual
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
7
Scenarios to 2024
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
9
THE CHALLENGE • South Africa squarely in a middle-income trap • Risk of long-term low growth trajectory • Decreased government effectiveness & rising corruption • Escape possible… • But developments in the ANC are key
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
10
ELECTIONS AND THE ANC NATIONAL CONFERENCE
2016 Local Elec
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
Dec 2017 Nat Conf
2019 Nat/ Prov Elec
2021 Local Elec
2024 Nat/ Prov Elec
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
11
DOMINANT FACTIONS IN THE ANC (DUMMY’S GUIDE)
TRADITIONALISTS
• • • • • •
Rural, black nationalist Socially conservative Loyal to Jacob Zuma Dominated by Zulu speakers Centralised state Redistributive policies and not constitutionalists
Ø Premier League and others
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
REFORMERS
• Social democrats • Typically urban • Supported by born-free voters with jobs • Multi-ethnic • Mixed economy & inclusive economic growth Ø Gauteng ANC and others
12
ANC MEMBERSHIPS (PAID-UP) 2007-2015
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
13
FOUR SCENARIOS
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
14
KEY DEVELOPMENTS 2016/2017
• Intra-ANC violence to inter-party violence to 3 Aug 2016 • Investment downgrade • Increase in social discord, poverty, unemployment & crime • ANC absorbed in internal squabbles • Factional violence in ANC, particularly KZN • Uncertain outcome in Dec 2017
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
15
SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS IN PAPER
• Reformers or traditionalists?
MANDELA MAGIC Reformers triumph in ANC
• Time before SA regains investment status
BAFANA BAFANA
• Level of minimum wage
Our current pathway
• Nature of nuclear build
A NATION DIVIDED
• Economic growth and structure 2017 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
Traditionalists triumph, ANC turns populist but could split
2024 @jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
16
CURRENT SEATS IN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
20
BAFANA BAFANA FORECAST
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
21
MANDELA MAGIC FORECAST
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
25
NATION DIVIDED FORECAST
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
27
Protest and violence Where we are, where we’re headed
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
28
PROTEST AND VIOLENCE: KEY FINDINGS
• SA culture of violence • Large increase since 2010/2011 • Majority peaceful yet increasingly violent • Fuelled by long-standing grievances • Murder & armed robbery increasing since 2012 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
29
VIOLENCE - A FORM OF COMMUNICATION ATTERIDGEVILLE, TSHWANE, 21 JUNE 2016
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
Photo credit: Aki Anastasiou (@AkiAnatasiou) via Twitter
30
SAPS PUBLIC GATHERINGS DATA, 2004/5 TO 2014/5 Peaceful Events
Violent Events
14000 12000 10000
11668 10832
10156
8000
12451
11843 10517
8981 7993
7858 6640
6342
6000 4000 2000
660
965
753
755
753
1014
974
1226
1882
1907
2289
0
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
33
SOUTH AFRICA’S GOVERNANCE INDICATORS AND RIOTS AND PROTESTS, 1997-2014 • Inverse relationship between public perception of government effectiveness and number of riots and protests • And with control of corruption.
Source: ACLED, Version 6, 2016; World Governance Indicators, 2015
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
34
ANC SUPPORT AND RIOTS AND PROTESTS
Source: ACLED, Version 6, 2016; Afrobarometer Round 6, 2016 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
35
SOUTH AFRICA PUBLIC VIOLENCE BY LOCATION AND MOTIVATION
Source: ISS Public Violence Monitor 2016 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
36
SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS IN PAPER
• To Aug 2016 – between parties MANDELA MAGIC
• To Dec 2017 internal ANC violence
Reformers triumph in ANC
BAFANA BAFANA
• Direction thereafter unclear
Our current pathway
• If no growth, jobs, etc, violence will increase
Traditionalists triumph, ANC turns populist but could split
• Social control agencies? 2017 © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
A NATION DIVIDED
2024 @jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
37
Policy recommendations & Conclusion
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
45
OUR ANALYSIS POINT OUT THAT
Things will get worse before they get better
No
South Africa has considerable growth potential © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
46
IN SUMMARY
Mandela Magic outcomes
Inclusive economy
Knowledge economy
Only jobs can significantly reduce inequality in medium/ long term © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
47
POLITICALLY A SOURCE OF HOPE?
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
48
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Reclaim political inclusion • Establish economic inclusion • Or provide coherent leadership © Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
49
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
51
Violence, economics and the future of the ANC
African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria 21 June 2016 © Institute for Security Studies
© Copyright – Institute for Security Studies – 1 July 2016
@jakkiecilliers
@aucoin
@ISSAfrica
53
Violence, economics and the future of the ANC
African Futures and Innovation, Institute for Security Studies 29 June 2016 © Institute for Security Studies
