KASIKORNBANK
KASIKORNBANK Outperform (16E TP Bt175.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt162.50
Banking January 22, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 net profit below forecast on lower gain on FX transactions Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
18.219
21.478
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.6%
‐13.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KBANK.BK/KBANK TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,393.26
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
389.00/10,717.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
48.98/48.97
52 week High / Low (Bt)
236.00/144.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
7,490.00
NVDR (%)
21.39
Estimated free float (%)
78.45
Beta
1.17
URL
www.kasikornbank.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Solid non‐NII and sound balance sheet remain its main cushions We maintain our Outperform rating and the 16TP for KBANK. We still expect the bank to be able to manage the headwinds during the slow economic recovery given its solid non‐interest income base and its more solid balance sheet vs. peers. 4Q15 results slightly below our forecast but in line with the street KBANK’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt5.5bn (‐45% YoY, ‐46% QoQ) was slightly below our forecast (Bt6.0bn) by 9% but in line with the consensus estimate (Bt5.5bn). The higher NP vs. our forecast was due mainly to the lower‐than‐expected gain on trading and FX transactions. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt5.5bn (‐45% YoY, ‐46% QoQ) The main reasons behind the NP drop were 1) its booking of an extra one‐off impairment expense (Bt2.3bn) for its IT system software in 4Q15; 2) a higher provision; and 3) the normal seasonality with higher operating expenses every 4Q. 2015 net profit stood at Bt39.5bn (‐14% YoY) The decline in NP was due largely to 1) a higher provision (164bps in 2015 vs. 93 bps in 2014) following its weaker asset quality; 2) weakened NIM by ~26bps on the rate cut impact and higher NPLs; and 3) the booking of an extra one‐off impairment expense (Bt2.3bn or ~5% of 2015 net profit) for its IT system software as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, core profit (PPOP) for 2015 still grew solidly by 13% YoY backed by 1) its modest loan growth of 5.4% YoY and 2% QoQ; and 2) especially from its main earnings cushion from its solid growth in non‐interest income (+13%); this was due mainly to robust growth in its gain on trading and FX transactions (+45%) and the 11% growth in its net fee income. Asset quality still weakened QoQ as estimated NPLs still increased QoQ to 2.7% of loans from 2.6% in 3Q15, in line with the bank’s latest indication of 2.7‐2.8% in 2015 and 3.5‐3.6% in 2016E, mainly from the small SME segments. However, given the bank’s prudent policy, it set a higher provision to cope with higher NPL risk. Thus, its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve remained solid and was the second highest after BBL, with KBANK’s ratio at 192% in 2015 vs. 175% in 2014 and 186% in 3Q15 (vs. BBL 217%, SCB 119%, TMB 168%, KTB 138%, TCAP 158%, TISCO 126% and KKP 160% in 2015). Meanwhile, its reserve‐to‐ NPL ratio was stable QoQ at 130% but still down from 141% in 2014. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btm) Provision (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
2013 56,067 11,743 41,325 17.27 17% 91.60 3.50 2013 9.41 1.77 2.15 20%
2014 63,365 14,243 46,153 19.28 12% 107.41 4.00 2014 8.43 1.51 2.46 19%
2015 71,867 26,377 39,474 16.49 ‐14% 119.42 4.00 2015 9.85 1.36 2.46 15%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 74,603 28,943 41,619 17.39 5% 133.52 4.50 2016E 9.34 1.22 2.77 14%
2017E 79,690 30,968 44,396 18.55 7% 147.57 5.00 2017E 8.76 1.10 3.08 13%
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q14
Net Interest Income
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ
21,765
21,094
21,825
0%
3%
Non Interest Income
13,944
16,051
14,530
4%
-9%
Operating Income
35,709
37,145
36,355
2%
-2%
Operating Expenses
18,080
15,460
19,832
10%
28%
Operating Profit
17,301
21,442
18,755
8%
-13%
Provision Expenses (Reversal)
3,886
7,507
8,827
127%
18%
Tax Expenses
2,822
2,743
1,540
-45%
-44%
Net Profit
2014 83,132
2015
% YoY
85,012
2%
55,523
62,503
13%
138,656
147,515
6%
61,419
66,656
9%
77,237
80,859
5%
14,243
26,377
85%
12,692
10,527
-17%
9,967
10,117
5,477
-45%
-46%
46,153
39,474
-14%
14,479
18,699
17,216
19%
-8%
63,365
71,867
13%
EPS (Bt)
4.16
4.23
2.29
-45%
-46%
19.28
16.49
-14%
Key Statistics & Ratios
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
PPOP-after tax
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
36,067
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
46,035
2014
49,490
36,067
2015 49,490
2.24%
2.62%
2.70%
2.24%
2.70%
141.4%
131.6%
130.0%
141.4%
130.0%
Tier I/Risk Assets
13.5%
14.6%
14.5%
13.5%
14.5%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
17.3%
17.7%
18.0%
17.3%
18.0%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
93.7%
94.1%
94.4%
93.7%
94.4%
Loan to Deposit & borrowing
88.9%
89.8%
89.9%
88.9%
89.9%
Provision to loans
1.02%
1.90%
2.19%
0.93%
1.64%
C ost to Income
50.6%
41.6%
54.6%
44.3%
45.2%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
39.0%
43.2%
40.0%
40.0%
42.4%
Net Interest Margin
3.86%
3.57%
3.60%
3.81%
3.55%
Tax rate
20.5%
19.3%
20.0%
20.1%
19.2%
Loan Growth YoY
6.1%
5.1%
5.4%
6.1%
5.4%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
1.7%
0.7%
2.0%
1.7%
Figure 2: KBANK's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
2016E +2 S.D. +1 .5 S.D. +1 S.D.
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
+0.5S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D.
1.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0.5
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
2.4
321
98
+1.5SD
2.2
300
85
+1.0SD
2.1
279
71
+0.5SD
1.9
257
58
Average
1.8
236
45
-0.5SD
1.6
214
32
-1.0SD
1.4
193
19
-1.5SD
1.3
172
6
-2.0SD
1.1
150
-8
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: KBANK's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels 2016E
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
-1 S.D.
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
(X) 17 16 +2 S.D. 15 14 +1 S.D. 13 12 Avg. 11 10 9 -2 S.D. 8 7 6 5
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
14.5
253
56
+1.5SD
13.7
238
47
+1.0SD
12.9
224
38
+0.5SD
12.0
209
29
Average
11.2
195
20
-0.5SD
10.4
180
11
-1.0SD
9.5
166
2
-1.5SD
8.7
151
-7
-2.0SD
7.9
137
-16
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt162.50
Banking January 22, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 net profit below forecast on lower gain on FX transactions Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
18.219
21.478
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.6%
‐13.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KBANK.BK/KBANK TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,393.26
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
389.00/10,717.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
48.98/48.97
52 week High / Low (Bt)
236.00/144.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
7,490.00
NVDR (%)
21.39
Estimated free float (%)
78.45
Beta
1.17
URL
www.kasikornbank.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Solid non‐NII and sound balance sheet remain its main cushions We maintain our Outperform rating and the 16TP for KBANK. We still expect the bank to be able to manage the headwinds during the slow economic recovery given its solid non‐interest income base and its more solid balance sheet vs. peers. 4Q15 results slightly below our forecast but in line with the street KBANK’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt5.5bn (‐45% YoY, ‐46% QoQ) was slightly below our forecast (Bt6.0bn) by 9% but in line with the consensus estimate (Bt5.5bn). The higher NP vs. our forecast was due mainly to the lower‐than‐expected gain on trading and FX transactions. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt5.5bn (‐45% YoY, ‐46% QoQ) The main reasons behind the NP drop were 1) its booking of an extra one‐off impairment expense (Bt2.3bn) for its IT system software in 4Q15; 2) a higher provision; and 3) the normal seasonality with higher operating expenses every 4Q. 2015 net profit stood at Bt39.5bn (‐14% YoY) The decline in NP was due largely to 1) a higher provision (164bps in 2015 vs. 93 bps in 2014) following its weaker asset quality; 2) weakened NIM by ~26bps on the rate cut impact and higher NPLs; and 3) the booking of an extra one‐off impairment expense (Bt2.3bn or ~5% of 2015 net profit) for its IT system software as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, core profit (PPOP) for 2015 still grew solidly by 13% YoY backed by 1) its modest loan growth of 5.4% YoY and 2% QoQ; and 2) especially from its main earnings cushion from its solid growth in non‐interest income (+13%); this was due mainly to robust growth in its gain on trading and FX transactions (+45%) and the 11% growth in its net fee income. Asset quality still weakened QoQ as estimated NPLs still increased QoQ to 2.7% of loans from 2.6% in 3Q15, in line with the bank’s latest indication of 2.7‐2.8% in 2015 and 3.5‐3.6% in 2016E, mainly from the small SME segments. However, given the bank’s prudent policy, it set a higher provision to cope with higher NPL risk. Thus, its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve remained solid and was the second highest after BBL, with KBANK’s ratio at 192% in 2015 vs. 175% in 2014 and 186% in 3Q15 (vs. BBL 217%, SCB 119%, TMB 168%, KTB 138%, TCAP 158%, TISCO 126% and KKP 160% in 2015). Meanwhile, its reserve‐to‐ NPL ratio was stable QoQ at 130% but still down from 141% in 2014. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btm) Provision (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
2013 56,067 11,743 41,325 17.27 17% 91.60 3.50 2013 9.41 1.77 2.15 20%
2014 63,365 14,243 46,153 19.28 12% 107.41 4.00 2014 8.43 1.51 2.46 19%
2015 71,867 26,377 39,474 16.49 ‐14% 119.42 4.00 2015 9.85 1.36 2.46 15%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 74,603 28,943 41,619 17.39 5% 133.52 4.50 2016E 9.34 1.22 2.77 14%
2017E 79,690 30,968 44,396 18.55 7% 147.57 5.00 2017E 8.76 1.10 3.08 13%
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q14
Net Interest Income
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ
21,765
21,094
21,825
0%
3%
Non Interest Income
13,944
16,051
14,530
4%
-9%
Operating Income
35,709
37,145
36,355
2%
-2%
Operating Expenses
18,080
15,460
19,832
10%
28%
Operating Profit
17,301
21,442
18,755
8%
-13%
Provision Expenses (Reversal)
3,886
7,507
8,827
127%
18%
Tax Expenses
2,822
2,743
1,540
-45%
-44%
Net Profit
2014 83,132
2015
% YoY
85,012
2%
55,523
62,503
13%
138,656
147,515
6%
61,419
66,656
9%
77,237
80,859
5%
14,243
26,377
85%
12,692
10,527
-17%
9,967
10,117
5,477
-45%
-46%
46,153
39,474
-14%
14,479
18,699
17,216
19%
-8%
63,365
71,867
13%
EPS (Bt)
4.16
4.23
2.29
-45%
-46%
19.28
16.49
-14%
Key Statistics & Ratios
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
PPOP-after tax
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
36,067
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
46,035
2014
49,490
36,067
2015 49,490
2.24%
2.62%
2.70%
2.24%
2.70%
141.4%
131.6%
130.0%
141.4%
130.0%
Tier I/Risk Assets
13.5%
14.6%
14.5%
13.5%
14.5%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
17.3%
17.7%
18.0%
17.3%
18.0%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
93.7%
94.1%
94.4%
93.7%
94.4%
Loan to Deposit & borrowing
88.9%
89.8%
89.9%
88.9%
89.9%
Provision to loans
1.02%
1.90%
2.19%
0.93%
1.64%
C ost to Income
50.6%
41.6%
54.6%
44.3%
45.2%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
39.0%
43.2%
40.0%
40.0%
42.4%
Net Interest Margin
3.86%
3.57%
3.60%
3.81%
3.55%
Tax rate
20.5%
19.3%
20.0%
20.1%
19.2%
Loan Growth YoY
6.1%
5.1%
5.4%
6.1%
5.4%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
1.7%
0.7%
2.0%
1.7%
Figure 2: KBANK's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
2016E +2 S.D. +1 .5 S.D. +1 S.D.
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
+0.5S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D.
1.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
0.5
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
2.4
321
98
+1.5SD
2.2
300
85
+1.0SD
2.1
279
71
+0.5SD
1.9
257
58
Average
1.8
236
45
-0.5SD
1.6
214
32
-1.0SD
1.4
193
19
-1.5SD
1.3
172
6
-2.0SD
1.1
150
-8
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: KBANK's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels 2016E
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
-1 S.D.
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
(X) 17 16 +2 S.D. 15 14 +1 S.D. 13 12 Avg. 11 10 9 -2 S.D. 8 7 6 5
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
14.5
253
56
+1.5SD
13.7
238
47
+1.0SD
12.9
224
38
+0.5SD
12.0
209
29
Average
11.2
195
20
-0.5SD
10.4
180
11
-1.0SD
9.5
166
2
-1.5SD
8.7
151
-7
-2.0SD
7.9
137
-16
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
