KASIKORNBANK Buy (15E TP Bt265.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt233.00
Banking April 21, 2015
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Resilient quarter despite weak macro fronts
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
21.062
23.901
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
-3.2%
-5.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KBANK.BK/KBANK TB 2,393.26
Paid‐up Shares (m)
10.00
Par (Bt)
558.00/17,215.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
48.98/48.97
Foreign limit / actual (%)
252.00/183.50
52 week High / Low (Bt)
5,522.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
28.14
Estimated free float (%)
79.71
Beta
1.12
URL
www.kasikornbank.com
CGR
Maintain KBANK as our top Buy We maintain a BUY call and keep KBANK as our top Buy stock in the sector. We still expect KBANK to be in a better position to withstand the headwinds and to manage its earnings growth when compared to peers, thanks to its stronger non‐interest income base and its efficient risk management. 1Q15 net profit in line with our forecast and the street KBANK’s 1Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt12.4bn (+4% YoY, +24% QoQ) was in line with our forecast (Bt12.5bn) and the street estimate (Bt12.8bn). KBANK’s 1Q15 net profit of Bt12.4bn (+4% YoY, +24% QoQ) The main drivers for the modest NP growth YoY came from 1) continued solid non‐interest income growth of 12% YoY; 2) sound loan growth of 7% YoY; and 3) higher NIM. However, NIM contracted by 18 bps QoQ partly on the rate cut impact. In terms of credit cost, the bank set a higher provision in this quarter as hinted earlier (at ~100 bps while maintaining its full‐year 2015E provision guidance of around 95 bps (+/‐). However, the high NP growth QoQ was due to lower operating expenses QoQ, which is the normal pattern for KBANK as it normally books high operating expenses in 4Q. Non‐interest income remained the main bright spot The bright spot for 1Q15 NP remained its strong non‐interest income with solid growth of 12% YoY and 10% QoQ despite the slow economic growth. The growth was still in line with KBANK’s target of low teen growth for 2015, backed mainly by robust net fee income growth of 15% YoY and 5% QoQ and its sound bancassurance business. Asset quality should still be manageable The bank’s NPL ratio increased slightly QoQ to 2.26% of loans from 2.24% following the weak economic recovery. We still expect KBANK to be able to manage its asset quality efficiently, given its prudent risk management and solid reserve position, with the reserve‐to‐NPL ratio staying stable QoQ at 140% and the reserve to the BoT’s required reserve improving QoQ to 179% from 175%. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btm)
56,067
63,365
68,576
75,532
83,547
Net profit (Btm)
41,325
46,153
48,798
54,136
61,039
17.27
19.28
20.39
22.62
25.50
EPS growth (%)
17%
12%
6%
11%
13%
Book value (Bt)
91.60
107.41
123.80
142.42
163.42
EPS (Bt)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836
Dividend (Bt)
3.50
4.00
4.00
4.50
5.00
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
66 (0) 2695‐5872
PER (X)
13.49
12.08
11.43
10.30
9.14
PBV (X)
2.54
2.17
1.88
1.64
1.43
Dividend yield (%)
1.50
1.72
1.72
1.93
2.15
ROE (%)
20%
19%
18%
17%
17%
[email protected] REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q15 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
% YoY
% QoQ
19,494
1Q14
21,765
20,975
8%
-4%
Non Interest Income
13,668
13,944
15,284
12%
Operating Income
33,163
35,709
36,259
9%
Operating Expenses
13,247
18,080
15,417
Operating Profit
19,587
17,301
20,592
Net Interest Income
4Q14
1Q15
2015E
% YoY % 1Q to 15E
87,227
5%
24%
10%
62,286
12%
25%
2%
149,513
8%
24%
16%
-15%
66,796
9%
23%
5%
19%
82,717
7%
25%
Provision Expenses (Reversal)
3,660
3,886
4,007
9%
3%
16,013
12%
25%
Tax Expenses
3,237
2,822
3,321
3%
18%
13,341
5%
25%
Net Profit
11,939
9,967
12,401
4%
24%
48,798
6%
25%
PPOP-after tax
16,350
14,479
17,224
5%
19%
68,576
8%
25%
4.99
4.16
5.23
5%
25%
20.39
6%
26%
EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios
1Q14
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
33,853
Gross NPLs/Loans
4Q14 36,067
1Q15 37,911
2015E 40,214
2.14%
2.24%
2.26%
2.25%
137.8%
141.4%
139.7%
144.2%
Tier I/Risk Assets
12.4%
13.5%
13.2%
13.9%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
15.6%
17.3%
17.0%
16.3%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
93.3%
93.7%
93.6%
93.2%
Loan to Deposit & borrowing
89.7%
88.9%
89.1%
88.7%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
Provision to loans
1.01%
1.02%
1.01%
0.98%
C ost to Income
39.9%
50.6%
42.5%
44.7% 41.7%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
41.2%
39.0%
42.2%
Net Interest Margin
3.62%
3.86%
3.68%
3.55%
Tax rate
19.9%
20.5%
19.9%
20.0%
Loan Growth YoY
7.0%
6.1%
6.7%
7.0%
Loan Growth QoQ
0.8%
1.7%
1.4%
Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 2: KBANK's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2015E
3.1 +2 S.D.
2.6
+1 S.D. 2.1
+0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
1.6
-2 S.D.
1.1
Apr-15
Nov-14
Jan-14
Jun-14
Aug-13
Oct-12
Mar-13
May-12
Jul-11
Dec-11
Feb-11
Apr-10
Sep-10
Nov-09
Jan-09
Jun-09
Aug-08
Oct-07
Mar-08
Jan-07
Jun-07
0.6
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
2.5
308
32
+1.5SD
2.3
287
23
+1.0SD
2.1
265
14
+0.5SD
2.0
243
4
Average
1.8
221
-5
-0.5SD
1.6
199
-14
-1.0SD
1.4
178
-24
-1.5SD
1.3
156
-33
-2.0SD
1.1
134
-43
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: KBANK's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels PER (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
14.8
301
29
Avg.
+1.5SD
13.9
283
22
+1.0SD
13.0
265
14
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-15
Jun-14
Nov-14
Jan-14
Mar-13
Aug-13
Oct-12
Dec-11
May-12
Jul-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Apr-10
Nov-09
Jun-09
Jan-09
Aug-08
-2 S.D.
Oct-07
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt) +1 S.D.
-1 S.D.
Mar-08
Jan-07
2015E
Jun-07
(X) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5
+0.5SD
12.1
247
6
Average
11.3
230
-1
-0.5SD
10.4
212
-9
-1.0SD
9.5
194
-17
-1.5SD
8.6
176
-24
-2.0SD
7.8
158
-32
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.