kasikornbank - Global Alliance Partners

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KASIKORNBANK      Buy (15E TP Bt265.00) 

Earnings Review 

Close Bt233.00

Banking   April 21, 2015 

Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line  

 

Resilient quarter despite weak macro fronts   

 

FY15 

FY16 

Consensus EPS (Bt) 

21.062

23.901

KT ZMICO vs. consensus    Share data 

-3.2%

-5.4%

Reuters / Bloomberg 

   

KBANK.BK/KBANK TB  2,393.26

Paid‐up Shares (m) 

10.00

Par (Bt) 

558.00/17,215.00

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) 

48.98/48.97

Foreign limit / actual (%) 

252.00/183.50

52 week High / Low (Bt) 

5,522.00

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)  NVDR (%) 

28.14

Estimated free float (%) 

79.71

Beta 

1.12

URL 

www.kasikornbank.com 

CGR  

 

Maintain KBANK as our top Buy  We  maintain  a  BUY  call  and  keep  KBANK  as  our  top  Buy  stock  in  the  sector. We still expect KBANK to be in a better position to withstand the  headwinds and to manage its earnings growth when compared to peers,  thanks  to  its  stronger  non‐interest  income  base  and  its  efficient  risk  management.    1Q15 net profit in line with our forecast and the street     KBANK’s 1Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt12.4bn (+4% YoY, +24% QoQ) was in  line with our forecast (Bt12.5bn) and the street estimate (Bt12.8bn).     KBANK’s 1Q15 net profit of Bt12.4bn (+4% YoY, +24% QoQ)  The main drivers for the modest NP growth YoY came from 1) continued  solid  non‐interest  income  growth  of  12%  YoY;  2)  sound  loan  growth  of  7%  YoY;  and  3)  higher  NIM.  However,  NIM  contracted  by  18  bps  QoQ  partly  on  the  rate  cut  impact.  In  terms  of  credit  cost,  the  bank  set  a  higher  provision  in  this  quarter  as  hinted  earlier  (at  ~100  bps  while  maintaining its full‐year 2015E provision guidance of around 95 bps (+/‐).  However, the high NP growth QoQ was due to lower operating expenses  QoQ,  which  is  the  normal  pattern  for  KBANK  as  it  normally  books  high  operating expenses in 4Q.     Non‐interest income remained the main bright spot  The  bright  spot  for  1Q15  NP  remained  its  strong  non‐interest  income  with solid growth of 12% YoY and 10% QoQ despite the slow economic  growth.  The  growth  was  still  in  line  with  KBANK’s  target  of  low  teen  growth for 2015, backed mainly by robust net fee income growth of 15%  YoY and 5% QoQ and its sound bancassurance business.     Asset quality should still be manageable  The bank’s NPL ratio increased slightly QoQ to 2.26% of loans from 2.24%  following the weak economic recovery. We still expect KBANK to be able  to manage its asset quality efficiently, given its prudent risk management  and  solid  reserve  position,  with  the  reserve‐to‐NPL  ratio  staying  stable  QoQ  at  140%  and  the  reserve  to  the  BoT’s  required  reserve  improving  QoQ to 179% from 175%.     Financial and Valuation   FY Ended 31 Dec 

2013 

2014 

2015E 

2016E 

2017E 

PPOP (Btm) 

56,067 

63,365 

68,576 

75,532 

83,547 

Net profit (Btm) 

41,325 

46,153 

48,798 

54,136 

61,039 

17.27 

19.28 

20.39 

22.62 

25.50 

EPS growth (%) 

17% 

12% 

6% 

11% 

13% 

Book value (Bt) 

91.60 

107.41 

123.80 

142.42 

163.42 

EPS (Bt) 

Prapharas Nonthapiboon  Analyst, no 17836 

Dividend (Bt) 

3.50 

4.00 

4.00 

4.50 

5.00 

FY Ended 31 Dec

2013 

2014 

2015E 

2016E 

2017E 

66 (0) 2695‐5872 

PER (X) 

13.49 

12.08 

11.43 

10.30 

9.14 

 

PBV (X) 

2.54 

2.17 

1.88 

1.64 

1.43 

Dividend yield (%) 

1.50 

1.72 

1.72 

1.93 

2.15 

ROE (%) 

20% 

19% 

18% 

17% 

17% 

[email protected] 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 1 of 4 

Figure 1: 1Q15 earnings results  Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.

% YoY

% QoQ

19,494

1Q14

21,765

20,975

8%

-4%

Non Interest Income

13,668

13,944

15,284

12%

Operating Income

33,163

35,709

36,259

9%

Operating Expenses

13,247

18,080

15,417

Operating Profit

19,587

17,301

20,592

Net Interest Income

4Q14

1Q15

2015E

% YoY % 1Q to 15E

87,227

5%

24%

10%

62,286

12%

25%

2%

149,513

8%

24%

16%

-15%

66,796

9%

23%

5%

19%

82,717

7%

25%

Provision Expenses (Reversal)

3,660

3,886

4,007

9%

3%

16,013

12%

25%

Tax Expenses

3,237

2,822

3,321

3%

18%

13,341

5%

25%

Net Profit

11,939

9,967

12,401

4%

24%

48,798

6%

25%

PPOP-after tax

16,350

14,479

17,224

5%

19%

68,576

8%

25%

4.99

4.16

5.23

5%

25%

20.39

6%

26%

EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios

1Q14

Gross NPLs (Btmn)

33,853

Gross NPLs/Loans

4Q14 36,067

1Q15 37,911

2015E 40,214

2.14%

2.24%

2.26%

2.25%

137.8%

141.4%

139.7%

144.2%

Tier I/Risk Assets

12.4%

13.5%

13.2%

13.9%

C apital Adequacy Ratio

15.6%

17.3%

17.0%

16.3%

Loan to Deposit Ratio

93.3%

93.7%

93.6%

93.2%

Loan to Deposit & borrowing

89.7%

88.9%

89.1%

88.7%

Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs

Provision to loans

1.01%

1.02%

1.01%

0.98%

C ost to Income

39.9%

50.6%

42.5%

44.7% 41.7%

Non Interest Income/Total Income

41.2%

39.0%

42.2%

Net Interest Margin

3.62%

3.86%

3.68%

3.55%

Tax rate

19.9%

20.5%

19.9%

20.0%

Loan Growth YoY

7.0%

6.1%

6.7%

7.0%

Loan Growth QoQ

0.8%

1.7%

1.4%

Source: KTZMICO Research 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 2 of 4 

Figure 2: KBANK's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels   (X)

2015E

3.1 +2 S.D.

2.6

+1 S.D. 2.1

+0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.

1.6

-2 S.D.

1.1

Apr-15

Nov-14

Jan-14

Jun-14

Aug-13

Oct-12

Mar-13

May-12

Jul-11

Dec-11

Feb-11

Apr-10

Sep-10

Nov-09

Jan-09

Jun-09

Aug-08

Oct-07

Mar-08

Jan-07

Jun-07

0.6

PBV (x) Implied market

Upside/ Downside

price (Bt)

to current price (%)

+2.0SD

2.5

308

32

+1.5SD

2.3

287

23

+1.0SD

2.1

265

14

+0.5SD

2.0

243

4

Average

1.8

221

-5

-0.5SD

1.6

199

-14

-1.0SD

1.4

178

-24

-1.5SD

1.3

156

-33

-2.0SD

1.1

134

-43

 

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research 

    Figure 3: KBANK's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels   PER (x) Implied market

+2 S.D.

to current price (%)

+2.0SD

14.8

301

29

Avg.

+1.5SD

13.9

283

22

+1.0SD

13.0

265

14

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research 

Apr-15

Jun-14

Nov-14

Jan-14

Mar-13

Aug-13

Oct-12

Dec-11

May-12

Jul-11

Feb-11

Sep-10

Apr-10

Nov-09

Jun-09

Jan-09

Aug-08

-2 S.D.

Oct-07

Upside/ Downside

price (Bt) +1 S.D.

-1 S.D.

Mar-08

Jan-07

2015E

Jun-07

(X) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5

+0.5SD

12.1

247

6

Average

11.3

230

-1

-0.5SD

10.4

212

-9

-1.0SD

9.5

194

-17

-1.5SD

8.6

176

-24

-2.0SD

7.8

158

-32

 

       

     

                              REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 3 of 4 

                                        DISCLAIMER  This  document  is  produced  using  open  sources  believed  to  be  reliable.  However,  their  accuracy  and  completeness  cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as  information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This  document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The  use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. 

  KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS  STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS  BUY:  Expecting  positive  total  returns  of  15%  or  more    over the next 12 months        OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  exceed  market  return    over six months period because of specific catalysts       UNDERPERFORM:  Expecting  total  returns  between    ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  below  market  return  over  six  months  period  because  of  specific  catalysts     SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more  over the next 12 months 

 

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS    OVERWEIGHT:  The industry, as defined by the analyst's    coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  outperform  the    relevant  primary  market  index  by  at  least  10%  over  the  next 12 months.        NEUTRAL:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's  coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  perform  in  line  with  the  relevant  primary  market  index  over  the  next  12  months.    UNDERWEIGHT:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform  the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next  12 months. 

 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 4 of 4 

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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited

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8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

rd

Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

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nd

2

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,

Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000

Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550

Fax. (66-2) 686-1666

Fax. (66-2) 626-6111

Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600

Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100

Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,

114 Singhawat Road,

Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

Muang, Phitsanulok 65000

Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

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Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,

A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

Telephone: (038) 813-088

Telephone: (038) 287-635

Fax. (038) 362-430

Fax. (038) 813-099

Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,

Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

Chiang Mai Branch

Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,

16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,

Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970

624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.