Keys to Prosperity
Trumponomics
Reaganomics vs. Obamanomics Growth Gap – $3.1 Trillion vs. Reagan and $1.8 Trillion vs. Average
The Greatest Story Never Told
0%
-10% Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
40%
May-09
50%
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
America’s Oil Boom
Growth in Oil & Gas Employment Outpaces the Rest of the Economy
60%
Oil and Gas
Total Nonfarm
30%
20%
10%
$0
Source: Energy Information Administration Nov-2017
Sep-2017
Jul-2017
May-2017
Mar-2017
Jan-2017
Nov-2016
Sep-2016
Jul-2016
May-2016
Mar-2016
Jan-2016
Nov-2015
Sep-2015
Jul-2015
May-2015
Mar-2015
Jan-2015
Nov-2014
Sep-2014
Jul-2014
May-2014
Mar-2014
Jan-2014
Nov-2013
Sep-2013
Jul-2013
May-2013
Mar-2013
Jan-2013
The Falling Cost of Energy
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
America’s Soaring Gas and Oil Output Total Production Since 2000
4
10
Billions of barrels of oil equivalent
7
Oil & Gas
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Renewables other than hydro
Billions of barrels of oil equivalent
3.5
9 8
Growth in Production Since 2006
3 2.5
Oil & Gas 2 1.5 1
Renewables other than hydro
0.5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The growth in oil & gas production in the eight years exceeds by nearly two fold the total current production of energy from all renewable resources (excluding hydro dams). Most recent annual data through 2015. Source: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
National Ambient Air Quality
Source: epa.gov
Carbon Monoxide
Lead (Right Axis)
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0 0
Micrograms per Cubic Meter of Air
1
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Parts per Million (Index: 1980=1) 1.2 1.2
Ozone
Sulfur Dioxide 1
Nitrogen Dioxide
Don’t Forget to Turn the Lights On
Red States vs Blue States Absolute Domestic Migration 2006 - 2015 2,000,000 1,500,000
1,475,425
1,000,000
779,441
500,000 -
Texas
Florida
New York
California
(500,000) (1,000,000) -1,103,301 (1,500,000) (2,000,000) Source: Rich States Poor States, Tenth Edition, American Legislative Exchange Council
-1,381,449
During and After Recession Texas - 1.1 Million Jobs Created Rest of the U.S. - 350 Thousand Jobs Lost
State Economic Outlook Ranking Rank
Top Ten States
Rank
Bottom Ten States
1.
Utah
41.
Oregon
2.
Indiana
42.
Maine
3.
North Carolina
43.
Hawaii
4.
North Dakota
44.
Illinois
5.
Tennessee
45.
Minnesota
6.
Florida
46.
Connecticut
7.
Wyoming
47.
California
8.
Arizona
48.
New Jersey
9
Texas
49.
Vermont
10.
Idaho
50.
New York
Source: ALEC, Rich States Poor States, 2017
Low Rates = More Revenue 45%
80%
40%
35%
60%
30% 50% 25% 40% 20% 30% 15% 20%
Top Marginal Rate 10%
Top 1% Income Tax Share 0%
Source: TaxFoundation.org
10%
5%
0%
Top 1% Income Tax Share
Top Marginal Income Tax Rate
70%
2018 U.S. Corporate Tax Rate Compared with the OECD Average 45
COMBINED CENTRAL AND SUBCENTRAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE TAX RATE
Old U.S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate
40
35
New U.S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate
30
25
20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: The bars are the average tax rate in the rest of the world. Source: OECD Tax Policy Analysis
Old and New Corporate Rates Average Federal and State Corporate Rates 45.00%
40.00%
40.10%
35.00%
30.00%
26.10% 24.20%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
OLD U.S. Rates
NEW U.S. Rates
OECD Average Rates
Taxmageddon Tax Hikes Under Obama 35%
Death Tax
40% 15%
Dividends
23.8% Old Rate
15%
Capital Gains
23.8% 35%
Income tax rate 0.00%
Obama Rate
43.4% 10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Old Tax Rates vs Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 39.60%
Top Income Bracket
37.00%
39.60%
Small Business Tax
29.60%
35%
Corporate Tax
21% 0%
5%
10%
15%
Obama Era Source: Tax Foundation
20%
TCJA
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Top 1 Percent Contributes As Much As Bottom 95 Percent Bottom 95% Share
Top 1% Share
70%
Percentage of Total
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0%
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics on Income
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Rich Pay More Than Their Fair Share 2014 Income and Income Tax Shares 45.0% 39.5%
40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.6% 20.0% 15.0%
11.3%
10.0% 5.0%
2.8%
0.0%
Income Share Tax Foundation: Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2016 Update
Top 1%
Income Tax Share Bottom 50%
Growth in Manufacturing, Mining, Construction Since Election Manufacturing
Mining
12600
720
12550
700
12500
680
12450
660
12400
640
12350
620
12300
600
12250
580
12200
560
Construction 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500 6400 6300
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
5
Jan '15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Percentage Workforce
Black Unemployment Rate
12
11
10
9
8
7
6.8% Record Low
4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent of Population
Black Labor Participation Rate
63 62.5 62 61.5 61 60.5 60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Latino Unemployment Rate
8
Population Percentage
7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 Record Lows
4.5 4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Confidence Index
105.0
Confidence Value
103.0 101.0 99.0 97.0 95.0 93.0 91.0 89.0 87.0 85.0
Source: University at Michigan
Small Business Optimism Source: NFIB 110
Index Value (1986 = 100)
105
100
Post Election Effect 95
90
85
Dow Jones Monthly Price Averages 25000 24000 23000 22000
Price
21000 20000 19000 18000 17000 16000 15000
NASDAQ Monthly Price Averages 7500
7000
6500
Price
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
Source: Wall Street Journal
S&P 500 Monthly Price Averages 3000
2750
Price
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
Source: Wall Street Journal
Inflation Rate 1947 -2017
10 -Year Treasury Note Yield February 1962 to January 2018
Real Interest Rate on 10-year U.S Bonds January 2003 to December 2017
Education and Medical Prices Increase While Import Prices Drop Inflation by Sector Nov 2000 to Nov 2017 140%
123% 120%
100%
81% 80%
67%
60%
42%
41%
40%
20%
-3%
0%
-3%
-4%
-45%
-58%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Data from 2005
Worker Well-Being
Based on data from the Census Bureau and the Department of Labor.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Number of Years It Took for Major Technologies to Reach 50% of American Homes
High Technology
Free Countries are Wealthier and Healthier $60,000
90.0 85.0 80.7
80.0
Life Expectancy $42,463
75.4
75.0
$40,000 69.6
$30,000
70.0 64.4
65.0 60.0
$21,720 $20,000
55.0 50.0
$9,416
$10,000
$6,036
$0
45.0 40.0
Most Free
Second
Third
Economic Freedom Source: Cato Institute and Fraser Institute, Economic Freedom of the World, 2017.
Least Free
Life Expectancy at Birth, 2015
GDP per Capita, PPP, 2015 (Constant 2011 US $)
$50,000
Reaganomics vs. Obamanomics Growth Gap – $3.1 Trillion vs. Reagan and $1.8 Trillion vs. Average
The Greatest Story Never Told
0%
-10% Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
40%
May-09
50%
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
America’s Oil Boom
Growth in Oil & Gas Employment Outpaces the Rest of the Economy
60%
Oil and Gas
Total Nonfarm
30%
20%
10%
$0
Source: Energy Information Administration Nov-2017
Sep-2017
Jul-2017
May-2017
Mar-2017
Jan-2017
Nov-2016
Sep-2016
Jul-2016
May-2016
Mar-2016
Jan-2016
Nov-2015
Sep-2015
Jul-2015
May-2015
Mar-2015
Jan-2015
Nov-2014
Sep-2014
Jul-2014
May-2014
Mar-2014
Jan-2014
Nov-2013
Sep-2013
Jul-2013
May-2013
Mar-2013
Jan-2013
The Falling Cost of Energy
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
America’s Soaring Gas and Oil Output Total Production Since 2000
4
10
Billions of barrels of oil equivalent
7
Oil & Gas
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Renewables other than hydro
Billions of barrels of oil equivalent
3.5
9 8
Growth in Production Since 2006
3 2.5
Oil & Gas 2 1.5 1
Renewables other than hydro
0.5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The growth in oil & gas production in the eight years exceeds by nearly two fold the total current production of energy from all renewable resources (excluding hydro dams). Most recent annual data through 2015. Source: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
National Ambient Air Quality
Source: epa.gov
Carbon Monoxide
Lead (Right Axis)
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0 0
Micrograms per Cubic Meter of Air
1
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Parts per Million (Index: 1980=1) 1.2 1.2
Ozone
Sulfur Dioxide 1
Nitrogen Dioxide
Don’t Forget to Turn the Lights On
Red States vs Blue States Absolute Domestic Migration 2006 - 2015 2,000,000 1,500,000
1,475,425
1,000,000
779,441
500,000 -
Texas
Florida
New York
California
(500,000) (1,000,000) -1,103,301 (1,500,000) (2,000,000) Source: Rich States Poor States, Tenth Edition, American Legislative Exchange Council
-1,381,449
During and After Recession Texas - 1.1 Million Jobs Created Rest of the U.S. - 350 Thousand Jobs Lost
State Economic Outlook Ranking Rank
Top Ten States
Rank
Bottom Ten States
1.
Utah
41.
Oregon
2.
Indiana
42.
Maine
3.
North Carolina
43.
Hawaii
4.
North Dakota
44.
Illinois
5.
Tennessee
45.
Minnesota
6.
Florida
46.
Connecticut
7.
Wyoming
47.
California
8.
Arizona
48.
New Jersey
9
Texas
49.
Vermont
10.
Idaho
50.
New York
Source: ALEC, Rich States Poor States, 2017
Low Rates = More Revenue 45%
80%
40%
35%
60%
30% 50% 25% 40% 20% 30% 15% 20%
Top Marginal Rate 10%
Top 1% Income Tax Share 0%
Source: TaxFoundation.org
10%
5%
0%
Top 1% Income Tax Share
Top Marginal Income Tax Rate
70%
2018 U.S. Corporate Tax Rate Compared with the OECD Average 45
COMBINED CENTRAL AND SUBCENTRAL GOVERNMENT CORPORATE TAX RATE
Old U.S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate
40
35
New U.S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate
30
25
20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: The bars are the average tax rate in the rest of the world. Source: OECD Tax Policy Analysis
Old and New Corporate Rates Average Federal and State Corporate Rates 45.00%
40.00%
40.10%
35.00%
30.00%
26.10% 24.20%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
OLD U.S. Rates
NEW U.S. Rates
OECD Average Rates
Taxmageddon Tax Hikes Under Obama 35%
Death Tax
40% 15%
Dividends
23.8% Old Rate
15%
Capital Gains
23.8% 35%
Income tax rate 0.00%
Obama Rate
43.4% 10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Old Tax Rates vs Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 39.60%
Top Income Bracket
37.00%
39.60%
Small Business Tax
29.60%
35%
Corporate Tax
21% 0%
5%
10%
15%
Obama Era Source: Tax Foundation
20%
TCJA
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Top 1 Percent Contributes As Much As Bottom 95 Percent Bottom 95% Share
Top 1% Share
70%
Percentage of Total
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0%
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics on Income
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Rich Pay More Than Their Fair Share 2014 Income and Income Tax Shares 45.0% 39.5%
40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.6% 20.0% 15.0%
11.3%
10.0% 5.0%
2.8%
0.0%
Income Share Tax Foundation: Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2016 Update
Top 1%
Income Tax Share Bottom 50%
Growth in Manufacturing, Mining, Construction Since Election Manufacturing
Mining
12600
720
12550
700
12500
680
12450
660
12400
640
12350
620
12300
600
12250
580
12200
560
Construction 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500 6400 6300
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
5
Jan '15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Percentage Workforce
Black Unemployment Rate
12
11
10
9
8
7
6.8% Record Low
4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent of Population
Black Labor Participation Rate
63 62.5 62 61.5 61 60.5 60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Latino Unemployment Rate
8
Population Percentage
7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 Record Lows
4.5 4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Confidence Index
105.0
Confidence Value
103.0 101.0 99.0 97.0 95.0 93.0 91.0 89.0 87.0 85.0
Source: University at Michigan
Small Business Optimism Source: NFIB 110
Index Value (1986 = 100)
105
100
Post Election Effect 95
90
85
Dow Jones Monthly Price Averages 25000 24000 23000 22000
Price
21000 20000 19000 18000 17000 16000 15000
NASDAQ Monthly Price Averages 7500
7000
6500
Price
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
Source: Wall Street Journal
S&P 500 Monthly Price Averages 3000
2750
Price
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
Source: Wall Street Journal
Inflation Rate 1947 -2017
10 -Year Treasury Note Yield February 1962 to January 2018
Real Interest Rate on 10-year U.S Bonds January 2003 to December 2017
Education and Medical Prices Increase While Import Prices Drop Inflation by Sector Nov 2000 to Nov 2017 140%
123% 120%
100%
81% 80%
67%
60%
42%
41%
40%
20%
-3%
0%
-3%
-4%
-45%
-58%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Data from 2005
Worker Well-Being
Based on data from the Census Bureau and the Department of Labor.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Number of Years It Took for Major Technologies to Reach 50% of American Homes
High Technology
Free Countries are Wealthier and Healthier $60,000
90.0 85.0 80.7
80.0
Life Expectancy $42,463
75.4
75.0
$40,000 69.6
$30,000
70.0 64.4
65.0 60.0
$21,720 $20,000
55.0 50.0
$9,416
$10,000
$6,036
$0
45.0 40.0
Most Free
Second
Third
Economic Freedom Source: Cato Institute and Fraser Institute, Economic Freedom of the World, 2017.
Least Free
Life Expectancy at Birth, 2015
GDP per Capita, PPP, 2015 (Constant 2011 US $)
$50,000
