Krungthai Card Outperform (17E TP Bt140.00)
Krungthai Card Outperform (17E TP Bt140.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt145.00
Financial October 21, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Solid 3Q16 operating results Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
9.312
10.729
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐0.2%
‐1.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTC.BK/KTC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
257.83
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
37.00/1,069.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/13.21
52 week High / Low (Bt)
150.00/78.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
1,011.00 3.80
Estimated free float (%)
41.97
Beta
0.95
URL
www.ktc.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Solid balance sheet and sound earnings outlook the main appeals We maintain an Outperform rating for KTC. We still like KTC on 1) its stronger financial position in comparison to peers; 2) its inexpensive valuation vs. financial peers; and 3) its stabilized earnings outlook. 3Q16 net profit in line with both our forecast and the street KTC’s 3Q16 net profit (NP) of Bt640mn (+28% YoY, +10% QoQ) was in line with both our forecast and the street estimate of Bt625mn. 3Q16 net profit stood at Bt640mn (+28% YoY, +10% QoQ) The solid NP was backed mainly by 1) solid loan portfolio growth of 1.5% QoQ and 11.4% YoY (+10% YoY for credit card loans, +16% YoY for personal loans), which is quite in line with the firm’s guidance of +10% for 2016E; and 2) net fee income growth of 13% YoY and 2% QoQ. The favorable net fee income growth was backed largely by its credit card spending growth that continued outpacing the sector (+14.2% for KTC in 8M16 vs. industry growth of +7.1%) vs. KTC’s card spending growth target of +15% for 2016E. Asset quality remained well controlled The NPL ratio in 3Q16 continued to decline to 1.86% from 1.91% in 2Q16 and 2.19% in 3Q15, while the reserve‐to‐NPL ratio improved to 447% from 439% in 2Q16 and 395% in 3Q15. 9M16 net profit up 21% YoY The 9M16 net profit of Bt1.85bn (+21% YoY) represented 77% of our FY16 NP forecast; thus, we maintain our earnings forecasts. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
6,744
7,256
8,217
9,297
10,580
Net profit (Btm)
1,755
2,073
2,395
2,719
3,103
6.81
8.04
9.29
10.54
12.04
EPS growth (%)
36.8%
18.1%
15.5%
13.5%
14.2%
Book value (Bt)
54.27
EPS (Bt)
Note: Krung Thai Bank (KTB) is the major shareholder of both Krungthai Card Pcl. (KTC) and KT ZMICO Securities.
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected]
28.58
33.87
39.91
46.45
Dividend (Bt)
2.75
3.25
4.00
4.22
4.81
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E 12.05
PER (X)
21.30
18.04
15.61
13.75
PBV (X)
5.07
4.28
3.63
3.12
2.67
Dividend yield (%)
1.90
2.24
2.76
2.91
3.32
26.0%
25.7%
25.2%
24.4%
23.9%
ROE (%)
66 (0) 2695‐5872 REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 3Q16 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) 3Q15
2Q16
9M15
9M16
Net Interest Income
Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
1,253
1,396
1,473
3Q16 % YoY % QoQ 18%
5% 3,586
4,214
% YoY
18% 4,893
2015
5,751
2016E % YoY % 9M to 16E 18%
73%
Non Interest Income
2,274
2,514
2,572
13%
2% 6,595
7,510
14% 9,045
10,282
14%
73%
Operating Income
3,527
3,910
4,045
15%
3% 10,181
11,724
15% 13,938
16,032
15%
73%
Operating Expenses
1,579
1,705
1,727
9%
1% 4,447
5,084
14% 6,139
7,197
17%
71%
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
1,948
2,205
2,318
19%
5% 5,734
6,640
16% 7,799
8,835
13%
75%
1,319
1,480
1,517
15%
3% 3,796
4,314
14% 5,183
5,823
12%
74%
Tax expenses
130
146
161
24%
11% 400
472
18% 543
617
14%
76%
Net Profit
499
580
640
28%
10% 1,538
1,854
21% 2,073
2,395
16%
77%
PPOP
1,819
2,060
2,157
19%
5% 5,334
6,168
16% 7,256
8,217
13%
75%
EPS (Bt)
1.94
2.25
2.48
28%
10% 5.96
7.19
21% 8.04
9.29
16%
77%
Key Statistics and Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn)
3Q15
2Q16
3Q16
9M15
9M16
2015
1,220
1,173
1,155
1,220
1,155
1,252
2016E 1,253
Gross NPLs/Loans
2.19%
1.91%
1.86%
2.19%
1.86%
2.06%
1.85%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
395%
439%
447%
395%
447%
400%
405%
Loan to borrowing
134%
Debt to Equity ratio (X)
134%
5.7
Provision to loans
135%
5.6
134%
5.3
5.7
135%
135%
5.3
135%
5.9
5.5
9.5%
9.7%
9.8%
9.3%
9.4%
8.5%
8.6%
Cost to Income
44.8%
43.6%
42.7%
43.7%
43.4%
44.0%
44.9%
Non Interest Inc./Total Income
64.5%
64.3%
63.6%
64.8%
64.1%
64.9%
64.1%
Net Interest Margin
13.8%
15.1%
15.2%
14.1%
15.0%
14.0%
14.6%
Tax rate
20.6%
20.1%
20.1%
20.6%
20.3%
20.8%
20.5%
Loan Growth YoY
7.9%
12.0%
11.4%
7.9%
11.4%
10.3%
11.6%
Loan Growth QoQ
2.0%
3.6%
1.5%
2.0%
1.5%
8.8%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: KTC's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
4.5
+3.5 S.D. +3 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Oct-16
Jul-15
Feb-16
Apr-14
Nov-14
Jan-13
Sep-13
Oct-11
Jun-12
Jul-10
Mar-11
Dec-09
Sep-08
May-09
Jun-07
Feb-08
Apr-06
Nov-06
Aug-05
-2 S.D.
Jan-05
Avg.
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
PBV (x)
Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+3.5SD +3.0SD
3.9 3.5
155 140
7 -4
+2.5SD
3.1
125
-14
+2.0SD
2.8
110
-24
+1.5SD
2.4
95
-35
+1.0SD
2.0
80
-45
+0.5SD
1.6
65
-55
Average
1.2
50
-66
-0.5SD
0.9
35
-76
-1.0SD
0.5
20
-86
-1.5SD
0.1
5
-97
Figure 3: KTC's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Oct-16
Jul-15
Feb-16
Apr-14
Nov-14
Jan-13
Sep-13
Oct-11
Jun-12
Mar-11
Jul-10
Dec-09
Sep-08
May-09
Jun-07
Avg.
Feb-08
Apr-06
2016E
Nov-06
Jan-05
Aug-05
(X) 35 30 +2.5 S.D. 25 +2 S.D. 20 +1 5S D +1 S.D. 15 +0.5 S.D. 10 5 -0.5 S.D. 0 -1 S.D. -5 -1 .5S.D. -10 -2 S.D. -15
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
25.2
234
61
+1.5SD
21.3
198
36
+1.0SD
17.4
162
11
+0.5SD
13.5
125
-13
Average
9.6
89
-38
-0.5SD
5.7
53
-63
-1.0SD
1.8
17
-88
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of RJH, BCPG, ITEL, SQ, ALLA, BPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt145.00
Financial October 21, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Solid 3Q16 operating results Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
9.312
10.729
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐0.2%
‐1.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTC.BK/KTC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
257.83
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
37.00/1,069.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/13.21
52 week High / Low (Bt)
150.00/78.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
1,011.00 3.80
Estimated free float (%)
41.97
Beta
0.95
URL
www.ktc.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Solid balance sheet and sound earnings outlook the main appeals We maintain an Outperform rating for KTC. We still like KTC on 1) its stronger financial position in comparison to peers; 2) its inexpensive valuation vs. financial peers; and 3) its stabilized earnings outlook. 3Q16 net profit in line with both our forecast and the street KTC’s 3Q16 net profit (NP) of Bt640mn (+28% YoY, +10% QoQ) was in line with both our forecast and the street estimate of Bt625mn. 3Q16 net profit stood at Bt640mn (+28% YoY, +10% QoQ) The solid NP was backed mainly by 1) solid loan portfolio growth of 1.5% QoQ and 11.4% YoY (+10% YoY for credit card loans, +16% YoY for personal loans), which is quite in line with the firm’s guidance of +10% for 2016E; and 2) net fee income growth of 13% YoY and 2% QoQ. The favorable net fee income growth was backed largely by its credit card spending growth that continued outpacing the sector (+14.2% for KTC in 8M16 vs. industry growth of +7.1%) vs. KTC’s card spending growth target of +15% for 2016E. Asset quality remained well controlled The NPL ratio in 3Q16 continued to decline to 1.86% from 1.91% in 2Q16 and 2.19% in 3Q15, while the reserve‐to‐NPL ratio improved to 447% from 439% in 2Q16 and 395% in 3Q15. 9M16 net profit up 21% YoY The 9M16 net profit of Bt1.85bn (+21% YoY) represented 77% of our FY16 NP forecast; thus, we maintain our earnings forecasts. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
6,744
7,256
8,217
9,297
10,580
Net profit (Btm)
1,755
2,073
2,395
2,719
3,103
6.81
8.04
9.29
10.54
12.04
EPS growth (%)
36.8%
18.1%
15.5%
13.5%
14.2%
Book value (Bt)
54.27
EPS (Bt)
Note: Krung Thai Bank (KTB) is the major shareholder of both Krungthai Card Pcl. (KTC) and KT ZMICO Securities.
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected]
28.58
33.87
39.91
46.45
Dividend (Bt)
2.75
3.25
4.00
4.22
4.81
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E 12.05
PER (X)
21.30
18.04
15.61
13.75
PBV (X)
5.07
4.28
3.63
3.12
2.67
Dividend yield (%)
1.90
2.24
2.76
2.91
3.32
26.0%
25.7%
25.2%
24.4%
23.9%
ROE (%)
66 (0) 2695‐5872 REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 3Q16 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) 3Q15
2Q16
9M15
9M16
Net Interest Income
Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
1,253
1,396
1,473
3Q16 % YoY % QoQ 18%
5% 3,586
4,214
% YoY
18% 4,893
2015
5,751
2016E % YoY % 9M to 16E 18%
73%
Non Interest Income
2,274
2,514
2,572
13%
2% 6,595
7,510
14% 9,045
10,282
14%
73%
Operating Income
3,527
3,910
4,045
15%
3% 10,181
11,724
15% 13,938
16,032
15%
73%
Operating Expenses
1,579
1,705
1,727
9%
1% 4,447
5,084
14% 6,139
7,197
17%
71%
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
1,948
2,205
2,318
19%
5% 5,734
6,640
16% 7,799
8,835
13%
75%
1,319
1,480
1,517
15%
3% 3,796
4,314
14% 5,183
5,823
12%
74%
Tax expenses
130
146
161
24%
11% 400
472
18% 543
617
14%
76%
Net Profit
499
580
640
28%
10% 1,538
1,854
21% 2,073
2,395
16%
77%
PPOP
1,819
2,060
2,157
19%
5% 5,334
6,168
16% 7,256
8,217
13%
75%
EPS (Bt)
1.94
2.25
2.48
28%
10% 5.96
7.19
21% 8.04
9.29
16%
77%
Key Statistics and Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn)
3Q15
2Q16
3Q16
9M15
9M16
2015
1,220
1,173
1,155
1,220
1,155
1,252
2016E 1,253
Gross NPLs/Loans
2.19%
1.91%
1.86%
2.19%
1.86%
2.06%
1.85%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
395%
439%
447%
395%
447%
400%
405%
Loan to borrowing
134%
Debt to Equity ratio (X)
134%
5.7
Provision to loans
135%
5.6
134%
5.3
5.7
135%
135%
5.3
135%
5.9
5.5
9.5%
9.7%
9.8%
9.3%
9.4%
8.5%
8.6%
Cost to Income
44.8%
43.6%
42.7%
43.7%
43.4%
44.0%
44.9%
Non Interest Inc./Total Income
64.5%
64.3%
63.6%
64.8%
64.1%
64.9%
64.1%
Net Interest Margin
13.8%
15.1%
15.2%
14.1%
15.0%
14.0%
14.6%
Tax rate
20.6%
20.1%
20.1%
20.6%
20.3%
20.8%
20.5%
Loan Growth YoY
7.9%
12.0%
11.4%
7.9%
11.4%
10.3%
11.6%
Loan Growth QoQ
2.0%
3.6%
1.5%
2.0%
1.5%
8.8%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: KTC's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
4.5
+3.5 S.D. +3 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Oct-16
Jul-15
Feb-16
Apr-14
Nov-14
Jan-13
Sep-13
Oct-11
Jun-12
Jul-10
Mar-11
Dec-09
Sep-08
May-09
Jun-07
Feb-08
Apr-06
Nov-06
Aug-05
-2 S.D.
Jan-05
Avg.
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
PBV (x)
Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+3.5SD +3.0SD
3.9 3.5
155 140
7 -4
+2.5SD
3.1
125
-14
+2.0SD
2.8
110
-24
+1.5SD
2.4
95
-35
+1.0SD
2.0
80
-45
+0.5SD
1.6
65
-55
Average
1.2
50
-66
-0.5SD
0.9
35
-76
-1.0SD
0.5
20
-86
-1.5SD
0.1
5
-97
Figure 3: KTC's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Oct-16
Jul-15
Feb-16
Apr-14
Nov-14
Jan-13
Sep-13
Oct-11
Jun-12
Mar-11
Jul-10
Dec-09
Sep-08
May-09
Jun-07
Avg.
Feb-08
Apr-06
2016E
Nov-06
Jan-05
Aug-05
(X) 35 30 +2.5 S.D. 25 +2 S.D. 20 +1 5S D +1 S.D. 15 +0.5 S.D. 10 5 -0.5 S.D. 0 -1 S.D. -5 -1 .5S.D. -10 -2 S.D. -15
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
25.2
234
61
+1.5SD
21.3
198
36
+1.0SD
17.4
162
11
+0.5SD
13.5
125
-13
Average
9.6
89
-38
-0.5SD
5.7
53
-63
-1.0SD
1.8
17
-88
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of RJH, BCPG, ITEL, SQ, ALLA, BPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
