Low Carbon City Initiative In China
Low Carbon City Initiative In China
WWF China 10 Sep, 2007
Main Contents • Context of City Development in China • • • • •
Growing city Increasing urban Area Population dynamics Strengthened economic development Speeding up industrialization
• Challenges for sustainable development • • • • •
Coal dominated energy consumption Increased oil dependence Low energy efficiency Growing CO2 emission Local environment problem
• Solution— Low Carbon City Development
Growing Cities Year 1978
Year 2005
Mega-cities
13
54
Large cities
27
85
Medium-sized cities
59
226
Small cities
115
296
Total
214
661
SOURCE: Ministry of Construction ,2006
¾It’s estimated that the total number of city will reach 1000 in
next 10 years ¾Big difference among east, west and middle of China on the scale and function of the city
Increasing Urban Area
Example: Beijing, the capital city of China, has experienced explosive growth since economic reforms in 1979 1978: Beijing in 1978 •• Beijing in 1978 • 2000: Extent of urban clearly visible
Population Dynamics
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Y1990
Y1995
Y2000
Y2001
Y2002
Urban
Y2003
Y2004
Y2005
Rural
¾ Every year about 18 million people flood from rural areas to cities during the past four years ¾The trend is not expected to stop in the near future. ¾The Proportion of Urban population is estimated to reach 75% by 2050
Year
Y1990
Y1995
Y2000
Y2001
Y2002
Y2003
Y2004
Y2005
Urban (%)
26.41
29.04
36.22
37.66
39.09
40.53
41.76
42.99
Rural (%)
73.59
70.96
63.78
62.34
60.91
59.47
58.24
57.01
SOURCE: National Bureau of Statistics, China,2006
Strengthened Economic Development 20000 18000
10.0% 9.1%
16000
Billion RMB
14000 12000
10.1% 15988
10.4%
12.0% 10.0%
13582
8.3% 10966
18309
12033
8.0%
10000
6.0%
8000 4.0%
6000 4000
2.0%
2000 0
0.0% Y2001
GDP
Y2002
Y2003
Y2004
Y2005
Growth Rate
SOURCE: National Bureau of Statistics of China,2006
China’s GDP ranked from 6th to 4th of the world –-World Bank
Strengthened Economic Development (Billion US$)
Year 2001 Rating
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Value of Country and Imports and District Exports Worldwide Total USA Germany Japan France England PRC Canada Italy Holland Hongkong
Year 2005 Percentage Percentage Value of of the total Country and of the total Imports and worldwide District worldwide Exports （ %） （ %）
12666
100
1908 1058 753 652 606 510 487 481 440 393
15.1 8.4 5.9 5.2 4.8 4 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.1
SOURCE: WTO & National Bureau of Statistics of China,2006
Worldwide Total USA Germany PRC Japan France England Holland Italy Canada Belgium
21146
100
2637 1745 1422 1112 955 879 759 747 680 650
12.5 8.3 6.7 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.1
Continued Industrialization
Continued Industrialization
80%
¾Investment accounts for 50% of total GDP ¾Heavy industry growing driven by investment on infrastructure construction caused by urbanization
70% 60% 50% 40%
Invest on Heavy Industry
30% 20% 10% 0% 1985 1990 2000 2005
Facts Summary ¾85% GDP generated in city ¾90% Service industry allocated in city ¾Most industry factories and plants located in cities and suburbs, which drive the GDP growth of China intensively ¾In 2005 global trade, 20% copper and nickel, 25% iron and steel, 40% newly added demand of oil, and 53% cement consumed in China for it’s rapid urbanization ¾Infrastructure in top 10 cities has occupied 30% of total fixed assets investment ¾It takes UK 120 years, USA 40 years, Japan 30 years, while China only 22 years to increase the urbanization rate from 20% to 40% ¾The future of the city will decide the economic development pattern of China
Coal Dominated Energy Consumption
1% 6%
Chi na
WORLD
21%
6%
6% 37%
3% Oi l Nat ur al Gas
28%
Coal Nucl ear Ener gy 69%
Hydr o el ect r i c
SOURCE:BP energy statistic review 2006
23%
Increased Oil Dependence 35000
• By 2020, China will import 80%of its oil
30000 25000 20000
10000 5000 0 19 80 年 19 85 年 19 90 年 19 91 年 19 92 年 19 93 年 19 94 年 19 95 年 19 96 年 19 97 年 19 98 年 19 99 年 20 00 年 20 01 年 20 02 年 20 03 年 20 04 年 20 05 年
10K Ton
15000
oi l pr oduct i on
oi l consumpt i on
oi l i mpor t
SOURCE: The energy development report of China 2006, china energy statistics yearbook
Increased Oil Dependence
70
18000
wor l d spot oi l pr i ce wei ght ed chi na oi l i mpor t
16000
2003
Dollars per million Btu
50
14000 2005
2004
60
40
12000 10000 8000
30
6000
20
4000
10
2000 0
0 1990
2000
SOURCE: EIA 2006 , The energy development report of China 2006
10k Tons
80
Low Energy Efficiency
Growing CO2 Emission China's CO2 Emission Trend 1971-2003 4000
3500
3000
Million tons
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987 Year
1989
1991
1993
Source: CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion, IEA, 2005
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Growing CO2 Emission Energy: 5.82% (火电厂) Industrial process: 1.75% (已二酸生产) Agriculture: 92.43% (氮肥)
Energy: 27% Agriculture: 50%
CH4 20%
N2O 7%
Energy: 91% Industrial process: 9%
Waste: 23% CO2 73%
Land use: -13%
GHG emissions in CO2 equivalents, Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004
“Millions at Risk”
“Delaying action for a decade, or even just years, is not a serious option” Sir David King (Science, 9 January 2004)
Source: Malte Meinhausen, Sep 2004
Local Environment Problem SO2排放量( 万吨) 能源消费量( 万吨标煤)
烟尘排放量( 万吨) 煤炭消费量( 万吨) 250000
3000 2500 ¾Coal Consumption
2000
¾SO2 Emission
1500
200000 150000 100000
¾Energy Consumption
1000
¾Particulates Emission
500
50000
0
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Local Environment Problem
•China has 16 of the top 20 air polluted cities globally •SO2/Acid Rain •The largest SO2 emitter； •Acid rain covers 30% of national land •Economic loss over 100 million •Particulates •In most of big and northern cities •63.2% of the cities exceed national standards on the second class 0.20mg/m3） Source: World Bank; World Health Organization
Facts Summary
Climate Change
Environment Energy Economic Politics
Environment
Energy Efficiency + Economic Pattern
Future of City
National Environment Policy
+
International Environment Policy
Facts Summary
¾ 75% Energy consumed in city ¾ Coal use is responsible for • 70% of airborne particulates • 90% SO2 emissions • 67% NOx emissions • 70% CO2 emissions • Low pollutants emission, Low energy consumption is the only way for China to reach harmony development among energy, environment and economy in the national and international political regime.
Solution--Low Carbon City Development 300 Million New Migrations of China=? 250 Million total population in USA 350 Million total population in Europe 23 Beijing, 21 Shanghai
• Improve energy efficiency on both supply and demand sides • Provide high efficiency infrastructure on housing and transporting • Enhance the monitoring and enforcement capability at city level If urbanization and industrialization Continues…
Solution--Low Carbon City Development
• Energy Intensity Target 20% reduction per GDP unit • Major Environmental Pollutants 10% Reduction •Forest Covering Rate Increasing from 18.2% to 20%
Premier Wen Jiabao
Low Carbon City Initiative Govt
Business
Clear vision on China’s energy development Concrete demonstration on feasible solutions
Public
Communicating and marketing for magnification
Low Carbon City Initiative
Energy Efficiency
Industry
buildings
Renewable Energy
Transport
Demonstrations of various path to low carbon development
Best Practice on Regulation & policy
Low Emission Technology Cooperation and Diffusion
Low Emission Business Expansion
Capacity Building & Awareness Raising
1. Define and encourage green investment
INVESTMENTS
Low Emission Business Expansion
TRADE 2. Corporate synergies
In Low Carbon City
4. Define and encourage green export
3. Discuss, revise & improve incentive policies
Tech Cooperation & Diffusion
1. Identify the needs of sustainable energy tech cooperation
In Low Carbon City
3. Define and promote best practice on tech cooperation
2.Pilot and improve incentive policies
Best practice introduction, and close interaction with decision makers in govt departments and business Awareness Raising in Low Carbon City
Energy efficiency and climate campaign For civil society participation
Low Carbon City Initiative Objective: Contribute to the national target of a 20% reduction in energy density by attempting to decouple economic development and CO2 emissions. Strategy: Promote climate friendly solutions for key sectors in target cities to showcase and promote the positive effects of using clean and sustainable technology. Outcomes: 1. A portfolio of best practice models for the implementation 0f low carbon projects so as to promote and facilitate the practice of similar techniques and technology throughout China. 2. A large network of partners, funding and expertise.
Low Carbon City Initiative
• Beijing: Policy influence and communication of the initiative’s developments and outcomes. ‐ • Shanghai: Energy Efficiency improvement in Building Sector • Baoding: Development of renewable energy and efficient energy Industry. • ……
Low Carbon City Pilot- Shanghai ¾ Energy efficiency of large commercial buildings - Energy consumption survey, database, quota and auditing; - Renovation and management demonstrations in office buildings and hotels; - Tech, product, and Financing mechanism for renovation; ¾ Newly built eco-buildings - best practice on promotion policy development and implementation
As the focal point of Chinese business and with a population over 17 million, Shanghai the largest consumer of energy per capita, especially in commercial buildings
© destination360.com
Low Carbon City Pilot-Baoding ¾ Networking on sustainable energy info exchange and tech cooperation ¾ Encouraging the investment and export of sustainable energy product ¾Capacity building in city planning and industrial park •Solar energy demonstration city •Industrial park of wind and solar technology
130 companies with revenues of 9 billion RMB in 2006, increase very quickly by 50%,export increase by 327%.
Low carbon city development of China, it’s of your business Chinese policy work: Central/Provincial Government Support International and national policy work: Export support of EE and RE industry
International and national B&I: Multi-national companies investment
City Planning Public private partnerships North-South: North-south EE and RE Technology transfer and cooperation
Building Transport
Industry Public
International B&I + academic Best practice and expertise from developed countries
International and national B&I: Support from the financial sector International GAA: Fund support from other donors and countries
Conclusions
• City is providing more and more opportunities, while also generating sufferings • The success of global target is only possible with strong and effective implementation at national and local level. • Low carbon path is the only choice for China, which needs support from international govt and business on best practice of policy development and low carbon technology diffusion
Thanks for your attention For Further Information, pls contact: Chen Dongmei [email protected] +86-10-65227100-3209 www.wwfchina.org
WWF China 10 Sep, 2007
Main Contents • Context of City Development in China • • • • •
Growing city Increasing urban Area Population dynamics Strengthened economic development Speeding up industrialization
• Challenges for sustainable development • • • • •
Coal dominated energy consumption Increased oil dependence Low energy efficiency Growing CO2 emission Local environment problem
• Solution— Low Carbon City Development
Growing Cities Year 1978
Year 2005
Mega-cities
13
54
Large cities
27
85
Medium-sized cities
59
226
Small cities
115
296
Total
214
661
SOURCE: Ministry of Construction ,2006
¾It’s estimated that the total number of city will reach 1000 in
next 10 years ¾Big difference among east, west and middle of China on the scale and function of the city
Increasing Urban Area
Example: Beijing, the capital city of China, has experienced explosive growth since economic reforms in 1979 1978: Beijing in 1978 •• Beijing in 1978 • 2000: Extent of urban clearly visible
Population Dynamics
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Y1990
Y1995
Y2000
Y2001
Y2002
Urban
Y2003
Y2004
Y2005
Rural
¾ Every year about 18 million people flood from rural areas to cities during the past four years ¾The trend is not expected to stop in the near future. ¾The Proportion of Urban population is estimated to reach 75% by 2050
Year
Y1990
Y1995
Y2000
Y2001
Y2002
Y2003
Y2004
Y2005
Urban (%)
26.41
29.04
36.22
37.66
39.09
40.53
41.76
42.99
Rural (%)
73.59
70.96
63.78
62.34
60.91
59.47
58.24
57.01
SOURCE: National Bureau of Statistics, China,2006
Strengthened Economic Development 20000 18000
10.0% 9.1%
16000
Billion RMB
14000 12000
10.1% 15988
10.4%
12.0% 10.0%
13582
8.3% 10966
18309
12033
8.0%
10000
6.0%
8000 4.0%
6000 4000
2.0%
2000 0
0.0% Y2001
GDP
Y2002
Y2003
Y2004
Y2005
Growth Rate
SOURCE: National Bureau of Statistics of China,2006
China’s GDP ranked from 6th to 4th of the world –-World Bank
Strengthened Economic Development (Billion US$)
Year 2001 Rating
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Value of Country and Imports and District Exports Worldwide Total USA Germany Japan France England PRC Canada Italy Holland Hongkong
Year 2005 Percentage Percentage Value of of the total Country and of the total Imports and worldwide District worldwide Exports （ %） （ %）
12666
100
1908 1058 753 652 606 510 487 481 440 393
15.1 8.4 5.9 5.2 4.8 4 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.1
SOURCE: WTO & National Bureau of Statistics of China,2006
Worldwide Total USA Germany PRC Japan France England Holland Italy Canada Belgium
21146
100
2637 1745 1422 1112 955 879 759 747 680 650
12.5 8.3 6.7 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.1
Continued Industrialization
Continued Industrialization
80%
¾Investment accounts for 50% of total GDP ¾Heavy industry growing driven by investment on infrastructure construction caused by urbanization
70% 60% 50% 40%
Invest on Heavy Industry
30% 20% 10% 0% 1985 1990 2000 2005
Facts Summary ¾85% GDP generated in city ¾90% Service industry allocated in city ¾Most industry factories and plants located in cities and suburbs, which drive the GDP growth of China intensively ¾In 2005 global trade, 20% copper and nickel, 25% iron and steel, 40% newly added demand of oil, and 53% cement consumed in China for it’s rapid urbanization ¾Infrastructure in top 10 cities has occupied 30% of total fixed assets investment ¾It takes UK 120 years, USA 40 years, Japan 30 years, while China only 22 years to increase the urbanization rate from 20% to 40% ¾The future of the city will decide the economic development pattern of China
Coal Dominated Energy Consumption
1% 6%
Chi na
WORLD
21%
6%
6% 37%
3% Oi l Nat ur al Gas
28%
Coal Nucl ear Ener gy 69%
Hydr o el ect r i c
SOURCE:BP energy statistic review 2006
23%
Increased Oil Dependence 35000
• By 2020, China will import 80%of its oil
30000 25000 20000
10000 5000 0 19 80 年 19 85 年 19 90 年 19 91 年 19 92 年 19 93 年 19 94 年 19 95 年 19 96 年 19 97 年 19 98 年 19 99 年 20 00 年 20 01 年 20 02 年 20 03 年 20 04 年 20 05 年
10K Ton
15000
oi l pr oduct i on
oi l consumpt i on
oi l i mpor t
SOURCE: The energy development report of China 2006, china energy statistics yearbook
Increased Oil Dependence
70
18000
wor l d spot oi l pr i ce wei ght ed chi na oi l i mpor t
16000
2003
Dollars per million Btu
50
14000 2005
2004
60
40
12000 10000 8000
30
6000
20
4000
10
2000 0
0 1990
2000
SOURCE: EIA 2006 , The energy development report of China 2006
10k Tons
80
Low Energy Efficiency
Growing CO2 Emission China's CO2 Emission Trend 1971-2003 4000
3500
3000
Million tons
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987 Year
1989
1991
1993
Source: CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion, IEA, 2005
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Growing CO2 Emission Energy: 5.82% (火电厂) Industrial process: 1.75% (已二酸生产) Agriculture: 92.43% (氮肥)
Energy: 27% Agriculture: 50%
CH4 20%
N2O 7%
Energy: 91% Industrial process: 9%
Waste: 23% CO2 73%
Land use: -13%
GHG emissions in CO2 equivalents, Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004
“Millions at Risk”
“Delaying action for a decade, or even just years, is not a serious option” Sir David King (Science, 9 January 2004)
Source: Malte Meinhausen, Sep 2004
Local Environment Problem SO2排放量( 万吨) 能源消费量( 万吨标煤)
烟尘排放量( 万吨) 煤炭消费量( 万吨) 250000
3000 2500 ¾Coal Consumption
2000
¾SO2 Emission
1500
200000 150000 100000
¾Energy Consumption
1000
¾Particulates Emission
500
50000
0
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Local Environment Problem
•China has 16 of the top 20 air polluted cities globally •SO2/Acid Rain •The largest SO2 emitter； •Acid rain covers 30% of national land •Economic loss over 100 million •Particulates •In most of big and northern cities •63.2% of the cities exceed national standards on the second class 0.20mg/m3） Source: World Bank; World Health Organization
Facts Summary
Climate Change
Environment Energy Economic Politics
Environment
Energy Efficiency + Economic Pattern
Future of City
National Environment Policy
+
International Environment Policy
Facts Summary
¾ 75% Energy consumed in city ¾ Coal use is responsible for • 70% of airborne particulates • 90% SO2 emissions • 67% NOx emissions • 70% CO2 emissions • Low pollutants emission, Low energy consumption is the only way for China to reach harmony development among energy, environment and economy in the national and international political regime.
Solution--Low Carbon City Development 300 Million New Migrations of China=? 250 Million total population in USA 350 Million total population in Europe 23 Beijing, 21 Shanghai
• Improve energy efficiency on both supply and demand sides • Provide high efficiency infrastructure on housing and transporting • Enhance the monitoring and enforcement capability at city level If urbanization and industrialization Continues…
Solution--Low Carbon City Development
• Energy Intensity Target 20% reduction per GDP unit • Major Environmental Pollutants 10% Reduction •Forest Covering Rate Increasing from 18.2% to 20%
Premier Wen Jiabao
Low Carbon City Initiative Govt
Business
Clear vision on China’s energy development Concrete demonstration on feasible solutions
Public
Communicating and marketing for magnification
Low Carbon City Initiative
Energy Efficiency
Industry
buildings
Renewable Energy
Transport
Demonstrations of various path to low carbon development
Best Practice on Regulation & policy
Low Emission Technology Cooperation and Diffusion
Low Emission Business Expansion
Capacity Building & Awareness Raising
1. Define and encourage green investment
INVESTMENTS
Low Emission Business Expansion
TRADE 2. Corporate synergies
In Low Carbon City
4. Define and encourage green export
3. Discuss, revise & improve incentive policies
Tech Cooperation & Diffusion
1. Identify the needs of sustainable energy tech cooperation
In Low Carbon City
3. Define and promote best practice on tech cooperation
2.Pilot and improve incentive policies
Best practice introduction, and close interaction with decision makers in govt departments and business Awareness Raising in Low Carbon City
Energy efficiency and climate campaign For civil society participation
Low Carbon City Initiative Objective: Contribute to the national target of a 20% reduction in energy density by attempting to decouple economic development and CO2 emissions. Strategy: Promote climate friendly solutions for key sectors in target cities to showcase and promote the positive effects of using clean and sustainable technology. Outcomes: 1. A portfolio of best practice models for the implementation 0f low carbon projects so as to promote and facilitate the practice of similar techniques and technology throughout China. 2. A large network of partners, funding and expertise.
Low Carbon City Initiative
• Beijing: Policy influence and communication of the initiative’s developments and outcomes. ‐ • Shanghai: Energy Efficiency improvement in Building Sector • Baoding: Development of renewable energy and efficient energy Industry. • ……
Low Carbon City Pilot- Shanghai ¾ Energy efficiency of large commercial buildings - Energy consumption survey, database, quota and auditing; - Renovation and management demonstrations in office buildings and hotels; - Tech, product, and Financing mechanism for renovation; ¾ Newly built eco-buildings - best practice on promotion policy development and implementation
As the focal point of Chinese business and with a population over 17 million, Shanghai the largest consumer of energy per capita, especially in commercial buildings
© destination360.com
Low Carbon City Pilot-Baoding ¾ Networking on sustainable energy info exchange and tech cooperation ¾ Encouraging the investment and export of sustainable energy product ¾Capacity building in city planning and industrial park •Solar energy demonstration city •Industrial park of wind and solar technology
130 companies with revenues of 9 billion RMB in 2006, increase very quickly by 50%,export increase by 327%.
Low carbon city development of China, it’s of your business Chinese policy work: Central/Provincial Government Support International and national policy work: Export support of EE and RE industry
International and national B&I: Multi-national companies investment
City Planning Public private partnerships North-South: North-south EE and RE Technology transfer and cooperation
Building Transport
Industry Public
International B&I + academic Best practice and expertise from developed countries
International and national B&I: Support from the financial sector International GAA: Fund support from other donors and countries
Conclusions
• City is providing more and more opportunities, while also generating sufferings • The success of global target is only possible with strong and effective implementation at national and local level. • Low carbon path is the only choice for China, which needs support from international govt and business on best practice of policy development and low carbon technology diffusion
Thanks for your attention For Further Information, pls contact: Chen Dongmei [email protected] +86-10-65227100-3209 www.wwfchina.org
