Low Carbon Potential in China Energy Efficiency AWS
Low Carbon Potential in China Energy Efficiency John Millhone Visiting Scholar Carnegie Endowment for International Peace October 26, 2010 CSIS Conference Center
Sources • Mark Levine, Group Leader China Energy Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory • William Chandler Adjunct Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Energy Efficiency and Climate An Overview • History: Good Times and Bad • Energy Efficiency - Sources: Electricity, Heat, Fluids - End Uses: Industry, Buildings and Transportation
• Summary • The Future Outlook
History: The Good and the Bad 1980-2002: China declared the goal of “decoupling” the economic and energy growth that was accompanied by a collection of very strong policies. 2002-2005: Energy intensity (energy/unit of GDP) increased for the first time since 1980 with very significant consequences. 2005-2010: The Politburo mandated a 20% energy intensity gain in 2005; Similar statements were made by the Premier and National Peoples Congress; Multiple actions were initiated at the federal, provincial and local levels Mark D. Levine. “Will China Overwhelm the World with its Greenhouse Gas Emissions? Asilomar Summer Study, 2010 ….
美国和中国年均能源相关二氧化碳排放 Annual Energy-Related CO2 Emissions: US & China, 1980 to 2008 8,000
百 万 吨 二 氧 化 碳
Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide
7,000
美国 US
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000
中国China 2,000 1,000 0 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
US Data from 1950 to 1979 are from: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (ORNL), 2006. US data from 1980 to 2007 are from: EIA, Annual Energy Review, 2009. "Environmental Indicators", http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/envir.html; US data of 2008 is from EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gas Report, "Table 6 Energy-Related Emissions", 2009. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/carbon.html; China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL. Per-capita emission data of US are from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (ORNL), 2010 and EIA, International Energy Statistics (Database).
5
中国的能源强度 （1980年至今） China’s Energy Intensity (1980-present) 4,000
/
千 克 标 准 煤 万 元 人 民 币 （
2005
年 价 格 ）
kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2005) RMB
3,500 1980-2002: 平均每年下降5% Average Annual Decline of 5% per year
3,000
2,500 2002-2005: 平均每年上升5% Average Annual Increase of 5% per year
2,000 1,500
2005-2009: 下降15.6% 15.6% Decrease
1,000 500 0 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008 6
Elements of Low Carbon and Energy Efficiency • Primary sources to end uses - Electricity - Heat - Liquid fuels
• Energy end uses - Industrial sector - Buildings sector - Transportation
比较： 三峡和电冰箱及空调的能效改进 Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements 120
/
十 亿 千 瓦 每 年
TWH/Year
100
80
60
40
20
三峡 Three Gorges
空调 Air Conditioners
电冰箱 Refrigerators
0
节能量按照标准实施十年后的节能量计算 Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect.
8
Electricity + Electricity prices have been increased to more closely reflect costs o Electricity prices are regulated; coal prices aren’t, requiring large subsidies + Small, inefficient coal-fired electricity plants have been closed + Improvements in coal-fired electrical boilers
Industry + The goal of the Top-1000 Energy-Consuming Enterprise Program, launched in 2006, is to improve the efficiency of China’s 1000 highest energy-consuming industries. + The Ten Key Projects launched in 2007 supports energy efficiency and pollution abatement projects. + Small, inefficient industrial plants have been closed + Waste heat and pressure utilization increased + Improved energy efficiency of motors +/o Differential, high electricity prices for high energyconsuming industries. In some areas, preferential low electricity tariffs were given such industries without authorization +/o Tax rebates for exporters have boosted their markets. In 2006, rebates were reduced slightly for low-value, high energy-consuming products.
产品的能源强度下降 Economic Energy Intensity of Production is Declining
千 克 标 煤
Non-Metal Minerals
/2000
年 人 民 币
Fuel Processing 燃料
非金属矿物
Iron & Steel
钢铁
Chemicals 化工 N-F 有色金属 Metals
11
Buildings +/o Building energy codes, initiated in North China in 1986, have been expanded country-wide. Compliance has been slow but strengthened in recent years. o Limited progress has been made in the retrofit of existing buildings. +/o Mandatory appliance standards, introduced in 1990, have expanded to 23 products, including most residential and commercial appliances, lighting and heating and cooling equipment. Compliance varies widely. + Government procurement of energy efficient products.
例外：既有建筑节能改造和供热改造的既定目标及实现的节能量对比 Exception: Targeted and Achieved Energy Savings through Existing Building Retrofit and Heat Supply Reform
16 供热改造 （百万吨标煤） Heat Supply Reform (Mtce)
12 10 8 6 4 2
Planed and Achieved Primary Energy Savings (mtce)
14 Planed and Achieved Primary Energy Savings (mtce)
计 划 和 实 际 实 现 的 一 次 能 源 节 省 量 （ 百 万 吨 标 煤 ）
Existing Building Retrofit (Mtce) 既有建筑节能改造 （百万吨标煤）
0 Total savings 2006-2008 2006-2008总节能量
2010 target 2010年目标
Transportation + Mandatory fuel economy standards for vehicles. The 16 weight classes cover passenger cars, SUVs and multiple-purpose vans (MPVs) + Emission standards. China follows the European standards for emission requirements + China has adopted 24 types of vehicle taxes with higher taxes on larger, energy-inefficient vehicles.
Summary • The aggressive top-down priority China has given to energy efficiency, with its emissionreduction benefits, has achieved unparalleled results. • The challenges are to build implementation capacity, to strengthen compliance, and to prioritize and integrate its efforts. • The reports being received on China’s 12th FiveYear Plan send an encouraging message that these efforts will continue.
The Future Outlook 12th Five-Year Plan • Tough targets are expected for energy efficiency and carbon emissions • The plan is expected to include a 15 to 20% reduction in energy intensity • A spending program for as much as $754 billion for alternative energy over the next 10 years Source: ClimateWire. “Beijing eyes strict energy goals in new 5-year plan.” 10/19/2010
两个情景下的碳排放预期(不考虑碳捕获与存储) Carbon Emissions Outlook for CIS and AIS Scenarios (without Carbon Capture and Storage) 加速改进 Accelerated Improvement
持续改进 Continued Improvement 14,000 12,000 10,000
Agriculture Industry Transport Commercial Residential 居民生活
农业 工业 交通
14,000
11,931
11,192
12,000
公共建筑
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0 2000
Agriculture Industry Transport Commercial Residential 居民生活
2010
农业 工业 交通 公共建筑
9,680 7,352
2020
2030
2040
2050
Mt CO2 Emissions 17
劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的情景分析与其他分析之间的重要 区别：我们的分析显示中国的能源消费将在2025年（加速改 进情景）或2030年（持续改进情景）开始进入一个平台期 Important Difference between LBNL scenarios and the others: our cases show a plateau beginning around 2025 (AIS) or 2030 (CIS) 我们相信这一平台期很可能在此时间段内出现 We believe this plateau is very likely to take place in this time frame • 饱和效应 Saturation effects • 城市化进程的减慢 Slowdown of urbanization • 人口增长趋缓 Low population growth • 出口转向高附加值产品 Change in exports to high value added products
18
Sources • Mark Levine, Group Leader China Energy Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory • William Chandler Adjunct Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Energy Efficiency and Climate An Overview • History: Good Times and Bad • Energy Efficiency - Sources: Electricity, Heat, Fluids - End Uses: Industry, Buildings and Transportation
• Summary • The Future Outlook
History: The Good and the Bad 1980-2002: China declared the goal of “decoupling” the economic and energy growth that was accompanied by a collection of very strong policies. 2002-2005: Energy intensity (energy/unit of GDP) increased for the first time since 1980 with very significant consequences. 2005-2010: The Politburo mandated a 20% energy intensity gain in 2005; Similar statements were made by the Premier and National Peoples Congress; Multiple actions were initiated at the federal, provincial and local levels Mark D. Levine. “Will China Overwhelm the World with its Greenhouse Gas Emissions? Asilomar Summer Study, 2010 ….
美国和中国年均能源相关二氧化碳排放 Annual Energy-Related CO2 Emissions: US & China, 1980 to 2008 8,000
百 万 吨 二 氧 化 碳
Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide
7,000
美国 US
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000
中国China 2,000 1,000 0 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
US Data from 1950 to 1979 are from: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (ORNL), 2006. US data from 1980 to 2007 are from: EIA, Annual Energy Review, 2009. "Environmental Indicators", http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/envir.html; US data of 2008 is from EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gas Report, "Table 6 Energy-Related Emissions", 2009. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/carbon.html; China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL. Per-capita emission data of US are from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (ORNL), 2010 and EIA, International Energy Statistics (Database).
5
中国的能源强度 （1980年至今） China’s Energy Intensity (1980-present) 4,000
/
千 克 标 准 煤 万 元 人 民 币 （
2005
年 价 格 ）
kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2005) RMB
3,500 1980-2002: 平均每年下降5% Average Annual Decline of 5% per year
3,000
2,500 2002-2005: 平均每年上升5% Average Annual Increase of 5% per year
2,000 1,500
2005-2009: 下降15.6% 15.6% Decrease
1,000 500 0 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008 6
Elements of Low Carbon and Energy Efficiency • Primary sources to end uses - Electricity - Heat - Liquid fuels
• Energy end uses - Industrial sector - Buildings sector - Transportation
比较： 三峡和电冰箱及空调的能效改进 Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements 120
/
十 亿 千 瓦 每 年
TWH/Year
100
80
60
40
20
三峡 Three Gorges
空调 Air Conditioners
电冰箱 Refrigerators
0
节能量按照标准实施十年后的节能量计算 Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect.
8
Electricity + Electricity prices have been increased to more closely reflect costs o Electricity prices are regulated; coal prices aren’t, requiring large subsidies + Small, inefficient coal-fired electricity plants have been closed + Improvements in coal-fired electrical boilers
Industry + The goal of the Top-1000 Energy-Consuming Enterprise Program, launched in 2006, is to improve the efficiency of China’s 1000 highest energy-consuming industries. + The Ten Key Projects launched in 2007 supports energy efficiency and pollution abatement projects. + Small, inefficient industrial plants have been closed + Waste heat and pressure utilization increased + Improved energy efficiency of motors +/o Differential, high electricity prices for high energyconsuming industries. In some areas, preferential low electricity tariffs were given such industries without authorization +/o Tax rebates for exporters have boosted their markets. In 2006, rebates were reduced slightly for low-value, high energy-consuming products.
产品的能源强度下降 Economic Energy Intensity of Production is Declining
千 克 标 煤
Non-Metal Minerals
/2000
年 人 民 币
Fuel Processing 燃料
非金属矿物
Iron & Steel
钢铁
Chemicals 化工 N-F 有色金属 Metals
11
Buildings +/o Building energy codes, initiated in North China in 1986, have been expanded country-wide. Compliance has been slow but strengthened in recent years. o Limited progress has been made in the retrofit of existing buildings. +/o Mandatory appliance standards, introduced in 1990, have expanded to 23 products, including most residential and commercial appliances, lighting and heating and cooling equipment. Compliance varies widely. + Government procurement of energy efficient products.
例外：既有建筑节能改造和供热改造的既定目标及实现的节能量对比 Exception: Targeted and Achieved Energy Savings through Existing Building Retrofit and Heat Supply Reform
16 供热改造 （百万吨标煤） Heat Supply Reform (Mtce)
12 10 8 6 4 2
Planed and Achieved Primary Energy Savings (mtce)
14 Planed and Achieved Primary Energy Savings (mtce)
计 划 和 实 际 实 现 的 一 次 能 源 节 省 量 （ 百 万 吨 标 煤 ）
Existing Building Retrofit (Mtce) 既有建筑节能改造 （百万吨标煤）
0 Total savings 2006-2008 2006-2008总节能量
2010 target 2010年目标
Transportation + Mandatory fuel economy standards for vehicles. The 16 weight classes cover passenger cars, SUVs and multiple-purpose vans (MPVs) + Emission standards. China follows the European standards for emission requirements + China has adopted 24 types of vehicle taxes with higher taxes on larger, energy-inefficient vehicles.
Summary • The aggressive top-down priority China has given to energy efficiency, with its emissionreduction benefits, has achieved unparalleled results. • The challenges are to build implementation capacity, to strengthen compliance, and to prioritize and integrate its efforts. • The reports being received on China’s 12th FiveYear Plan send an encouraging message that these efforts will continue.
The Future Outlook 12th Five-Year Plan • Tough targets are expected for energy efficiency and carbon emissions • The plan is expected to include a 15 to 20% reduction in energy intensity • A spending program for as much as $754 billion for alternative energy over the next 10 years Source: ClimateWire. “Beijing eyes strict energy goals in new 5-year plan.” 10/19/2010
两个情景下的碳排放预期(不考虑碳捕获与存储) Carbon Emissions Outlook for CIS and AIS Scenarios (without Carbon Capture and Storage) 加速改进 Accelerated Improvement
持续改进 Continued Improvement 14,000 12,000 10,000
Agriculture Industry Transport Commercial Residential 居民生活
农业 工业 交通
14,000
11,931
11,192
12,000
公共建筑
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0 2000
Agriculture Industry Transport Commercial Residential 居民生活
2010
农业 工业 交通 公共建筑
9,680 7,352
2020
2030
2040
2050
Mt CO2 Emissions 17
劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的情景分析与其他分析之间的重要 区别：我们的分析显示中国的能源消费将在2025年（加速改 进情景）或2030年（持续改进情景）开始进入一个平台期 Important Difference between LBNL scenarios and the others: our cases show a plateau beginning around 2025 (AIS) or 2030 (CIS) 我们相信这一平台期很可能在此时间段内出现 We believe this plateau is very likely to take place in this time frame • 饱和效应 Saturation effects • 城市化进程的减慢 Slowdown of urbanization • 人口增长趋缓 Low population growth • 出口转向高附加值产品 Change in exports to high value added products
18
