Low Carbon Future Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China
Low Carbon Future Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China
Jiang Kejun Energy gy Research Institute IGES-ERI Policy Dialogue Towards a Sustainable, Low-Carbon Asia: Policies and international collaborations Sep.22-23, Beijing
Low Carbon Future: our vision • • • •
Low carbon/GHG emission Comfortable life/high welfare Green/eco-friendly development Well ll developed d l d transport system with i h focus f on easy walking/bicycle • Environment friendly life style • Promote economy development
2
Scenario Framework
Good effects on Climate Change
High GDP low carbon scenario
High GDP Enhanced Low CarbonLow GDP Scenario Low Carbon Scenario
Bad effects on energy security
Good effects on energy security
BaU Scenario Bad effects on Climate Change
Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC) Energy demand and supply Price/investment Economic impact Medium/long-term analysis
IPAC-SGM
IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL
Energy demand and supply Price/investment IPAC-TIMER Medium/long-term analysis
IPAC-Emission
IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport) IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm
Technology development Environment impact Technology policy
IPAC/AIM-Local Region analysis Medium/short analysis Energy demand and supply Technology policy
IPAC-AIM/tech
IPAC/Gains-Asia
AIM-air
IPAC-health
Environment industry Pollutant emission Medium/long-term analys
Energy demand and suppl F ll range emission Full i i Price, resource, technolog Medium-long term analysis Economic impact Short term forecast/ energy early warning
Medium/short term analysis T h l Technology assessment Detailed technology flow
Climate Model ERI, China
There are many publication on IPAC
There are many publication on IPAC: IPCC TAR, AR4
Methodology framework Global Model IPAC-Emission
Global energy demand and supply Global GHG Emission Global Target g Burden sharing Energy import/export Energy Price Reduction cost
China energy gy and emission scenarios Energy demand by sectors Energy supply Reduction cost
Future economic sector detail Energy gy intensive industryy Reduction cost
Energy technology model IPAC-AIM/technology
Energy economic model IPAC-CGE
GDP by industry sectors: What is the meaning of Low Carbon Economy 煤气的生产和供应业
GDP部门结构
蒸汽热水生产供应业 电力生产供应业
亿元
其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械
1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业 普通机械、专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属 黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业 非金属矿物制品业 橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业 化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业 石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业 木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业 烟草加工业 食品饮料加工、制造业 非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业 有色金属矿采选业
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年份
黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油 煤炭采选业 农业
Investment by industrial sectors 建筑业
工业分部门投资
自来水的生产和供应业 煤气的生产和供应业 蒸汽热水生产供应业
180000
电力生产供应业 其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械
160000
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业
140000
普通机械、专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属
120000
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
亿元
非金属矿物制品业
100000
橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业
80000
化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业
60000
石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业
40000
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业
20000
烟草加工业 食品饮料加工、制造业
0 2005
非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
年份
有色金属矿采选业 黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油
Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC Unit Million Million Million Glass cases Copper Million Ammonia Million Ethylene Million Soda Ash Million Casutic Million Paper Million FertilizerMillion Aluminum Million Paper Million Calcium caMillion Steel Cement
ton ton
ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton
2005 355 1060
2020 610 1600
2030 570 1600
2040 440 1200
2050 360 900
399
650
690
670
580
2.6 8.51 5.1 14.67 12.64 62.05 52.2 7.56 46.3 8.5
7 16 7.2 23 24 110 61 34 50 10
7 16 7 24.5 25 115 61 36 50 8
6.5 15 6.5 23.5 25 120 61 36 50 7
4.6 12 5.5 22 24 120 61 33 45 4
Population Population Urbanization rate Urban Population Person per Household Urban Household Rural Population Person per Household Rural Household
2005 1307.56 43% 562.12 2.96 189.91 745.44 4.08 182.71
2010 1360.00 49% 666.40 2.88 221.94 693.60 3.80 189.68
2020 1440.00 63% 907.20 2.80 288.00 532.80 3.50 181.03
2030 1470.00 70% 1029.00 2.75 336.76 441.00 3.40 159.97
2040 1470.00 74% 1087.80 2.70 364.78 382.20 3.20 151.59
Steel production process in China Coke making DIOS or COREX
Direct Reduction
Sintering
Iron making
Pig Iron Steel making
Recycled steel
Electric Furnace
Convertor
Open Hearth
Casting Continuous Casting Heating Hot Rolling Steel Heating
Cool Rolling Steel
2050 1440.00 79% 1137.60 2.65 380.38 302.40 3.00 144.00
Parameter of Urban Household: by 2030 same life quality as that in developed countries Service
Unit
Household, million Share of HH with space heating Index of space heating intensity, 2000=1 Index of space heating time, 2000=1 Sh Share off bbuilding ildi with i h 50% efficiency ffi i standard Ownership of Air Conditioner Index of Air conditioner intensity, 2000=1 Index of air conditioner utilization time, 2000=1 Ownership of Refrigerator Average space of refregeretor Efficiency of Refregeretor Ownership of washing machine times to use washing machine per week O Ownership hi off TV Average Capacity of TV Hours per TV per day Penetration rate of CFL Light per HH Ownership of Water heater Ownership of Solar heater Ownership of Electric cooking Hours per day of electric cooking Capacity of other electric applicance Hours of other electric appliance
2020 288 42% 1.35 1.33 20%
Service 2030 336 44% 1.5 1.36 45%
2050 380 48% 1.6 1.4 65%
130 1.3 1.6
180 1.4 1.8
260 1.6 2.2
120 310
130 390
0.8kWh/天 100 8 220 300W 3.2 100% 21 100% 25% 140 30 1800W 80
0.7kWh/天 100 8 290 280 2.9 100% 27 100% 33% 260 50 2300W 100
per 100HH 100 250 L 0.8kWh/天 per 100HH 100 5.4 per 100HH 180 320W 3.5 100% 14 per 100HH 100% per 100HH 18% per 100HH 130 12 Minutes 1500W W 50 Minutes
2050年的低碳住宅
太阳能利用
舒适和节能 生态生活教育
光伏电池 (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池， 转换效率接近30%
减少10-20% 能源需求 屋顶植被 高效照明 【如 LED照明】 照明】
太阳热利用 普及率: 20-60%
减少50%照明需求， 普及率 100%
（目前 6%）
能源检测系统
高效绝热
（家用电器)
减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率70%
超高效空调
燃料电池
COP =8, 普及率 100%
待机电源耗电 降低1/3 ， 普及率100%
热泵采暖
普及率 0-20%
COP＝5 普及率 30-70%
向公众提供经济和环境 信息促使大家成为 低碳消费
高效家用电器 减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式
5
机动车普及率 Car Ownership 600
US 明显的左 移效应
500
Italy
Canada
Sweden France UK
400
北京2020
Spain 300 台湾
北京2007
200
Greece
杭州2007
100
中国 2030PPP 法
中国2030 汇率法
东营2005 上海2007
新加坡 香港
韩国
India
0 0
5,000
Source: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum
10,000 15,000 GDP per Capita (1997 $ PPP)
20,000
25,000
Vehicle fleet, Low Carbon scenario, 10000 2000 Total Vehicle P Passenger Freight Car Family Car Other Car Mini-Bus Large Bus Bus Motor Cycle
1609 854 716 670 57 613 108 75.3293 184 3771
2005 3160 2132 1027 1919 1100 819 131 82.3080335 214 6582
2010 6227 4299 1928 3921 3145 776 265 113.4 378 9848
2020 18583 15504 3079 14982 14032 950 313 208.8 522 10613
2030 36318 32323 3995 31558 30454 1104 383 382.5 765 11193
2040 51717 46083 5634 45075 43675 1400 524 483.84 1008 11193
2050 55810 48922 6888 47662 46062 1600 214 1045.8 1260 10634
Transport, Low carbon scenario
Family car ownership, per 100HH
Urban Rural
Family car annual travel distance distance, km Average engin size of family cars, litter Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % Share of Biofuel, % Share of electric car, % Share of fuel cell car, %
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
3.37 0.08 9500 1.7 9.2 0.011 1.10% 0% 0%
14 0.2 9500 1.6 8.9 0.016 1.30% 0.12% 0%
36 8 9300 1.6 7.1 0.025 4.1% 3.2% 0.80%
65 38 8635 1.6 5.9 0.046 7.70% 6.80% 1.60%
77 70 8300 1.5 4.8 0.1 12% 12.5% 4.70%
78 90 7480 1.4 4.1 0.21 13% 19.8% 7.90%
Comparison of BaU and Low Carbon Scenario hnology
Efficiency
Ratio in 2030 Reference scenario
ed
Low carbon scenario
Ratio in 2050 Reference scenario
Note
Low carbon Scenario
coke
11900 Mcal/ ton coke, with gas pproduction of 1340 Mcal
58%
50%
77%
42%
generation en
10300 Mcal/ ton coke, with gas production of 1420Mcal
17%
47%
23%
58%
nching
2.4 Mcal/ ton J Recovery
80%
100%
90%
100%
Localization, with promising prospect of market potential
g furnace ternational d level
390 Mcal/ ton sinter lump, saving gy 42% of energy
45%
85%
67%
90%
Needed to localization
urnace of ional d level
3750 Mcal/ ton hot metal, saving 21% of energy
40%
65%
64%
87%
s recovery
Heat and electricity recovery 0.7 Mcal/ ton hot metal
44%
70%
85%
100%
ous
Saving energy
90%
98%
85%
95%
and
86%
of
Fully localization
be
Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario Unit Steel C Cement
Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/Weight Cases
Glass
Kgce/万块 Brick Kgce/t Ammonia Kgce/t Ethylene Kgce/t Soda Ash Kgce/t Casutic Kgce/t Calcium carbide Kgce/t pp Copper kWh/t Aluminum Kgce/t Paper Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh
2005 760 132
2020 650 101
24
18
685 1645 1092 340 1410 1482 1273 14320 1047 350
466 1328 796 310 990 1304 1063 12870 840 305
2030 2040 564 554 86 81 14.5 13.8 433 1189 713 290 890 1215 931 12170 761 287
421 1141 693 284 868 1201 877 11923 721 274
2050 545 77 13.1 408 1096 672 279 851 1193 827 11877 686 264
Technology learning curve 1.2
Index, 2005=1
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2005
2020
2030 Year
2050
Hydrate Biomass Ethanol Biomass-Ethanol IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell Hydrogen Vehicle Poly-Generation Solar Thermal Power PV 4th Generation Nuclear Off Shore Wind O Shore On Sh Wind Wi d Biomass Power Advanced NGCC
Primary energy demand, BaU Primary Energy Demand, BaU Bio-Diesel
7000
Ethonal
6000
Biomass Power Wind
4000
Nuclear
3000
Hydro
2000
N.Gas
1000
Oil
0 2000
Coal
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Primary Energy Demand 7000 6000 5000
Mtce
Mtce
5000
Baseline
4000
HLC 3000
HELC
2000
LLC
1000 0 2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CO2 Emission in China 4000 3500 3500 3000
Mt‐C
2500 Baseline
2000
Policy
1500
ELC
1000 500 500 0 2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Investment Demand of Energy Industry 10000
8000
A hundred 6000 million
Base scenario Policy scenario
4000
2000
0 2000
2005
2010 Year
2020
2030
National Energy Expenses 200000 A hundred million
150000 Base scenario 100000 Policy scenario 50000
0 2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
Year
25
GDP Loss, % 6.00% 5.00% 650ppm
4.00%
550ppm
3.00%
450ppm 2.00%
Per Capita
1 00% 1.00%
Carbon Intensity b
0.00% ‐1.00%
2010
2020
2030
2050
2075
2100
Technology Roadmap Field Industry
Transport
Technology
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Advanced energy technique of industryy
2035
2040
2045
Popularization Rate: 90%- 100%
Hybrid Electric Vehicle Popularization Rate:30%
2050
斯德歌尔摩：在欧洲许多城市，自行车、步行在逐渐形成主要交通 方式
32
CCS future 120 100 IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC US-Critical Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal
60 40 20 0 2000
2005
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
33
Cost curve in power generation in China, 2050 4000 3000 2000
Yuan/t‐C
%
80
1000 0 ‐1000 0
200
400
600
800
1000
‐2000 ‐3000
reduction, m‐tC
1200
1400
1600
Fixed Unit Ivestment 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
3000 yuan/kW
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 International International IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell
China IGCC
China SC
China USC
20% Energy Intensity Target in 11th Five Year Plan: China is taking the lead • 20% energy intensity reduction within 11th Five Year Plan(2005-2010) • Very good for China, not only for energy, but also for environment, i economic i structure optimization i i i • Most ambitious target in the world: making full effort to reach the target • One of the Biggest actions on GHG mitigation: 190million t-C reduction in 2010 compared with baseline, 410million t-C reduction compared with no intensity change
36
Post 2012 option road map of China 2010
2020
2030
2040
Domestic Energy Saving Target APP Post Kyoto Mechanism Bilateral Cooperation Emission Trade Non-constraint Emission R d ti Reduction Target GHG Reduction Target Considering Promises
What is happening now on policy
• • • •
Negotiation towards Copenhagen, and after that 12th Five Year Plan on Energy, Energy Climate change Low Carbon Development Planning and Strategy National long-term energy plan
2050
Domestic climate change strategy • What is the targets of GHG in China? Short-term and longterm? • Key policies and countermeasures for low carbon future • Long-term Energy and emission pathways? • Economy development pattern? • Technology R&D strategy? What kind of technologies? • Near-term action and policies? Cost and benefit of these near-term policies?
Other relative studies: 2008-2010 • Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030: Energy Bureau • 2050 Low carbon Society Emission Scenarios: MOE(Japan), Defra(UK) • New IPCC Scenarios • CCICED low carbon scenarios • Chinese Academy of Engineering: 2050 Energy Strategy, energy ceiling. • Post-Kyoto Options for China • Sector based approach pp analysis: y case studyy for ppower generation in China • Low Carbon Scenario in Province and Cities: Guangdong, Hongkong, Jilin, Jilin City, Baoding, Shanghai, Beijing, Shijiazhuang • AEEMF: Asian Scenarios • Embedded Carbon: international trade, final products
Jiang Kejun Energy gy Research Institute IGES-ERI Policy Dialogue Towards a Sustainable, Low-Carbon Asia: Policies and international collaborations Sep.22-23, Beijing
Low Carbon Future: our vision • • • •
Low carbon/GHG emission Comfortable life/high welfare Green/eco-friendly development Well ll developed d l d transport system with i h focus f on easy walking/bicycle • Environment friendly life style • Promote economy development
2
Scenario Framework
Good effects on Climate Change
High GDP low carbon scenario
High GDP Enhanced Low CarbonLow GDP Scenario Low Carbon Scenario
Bad effects on energy security
Good effects on energy security
BaU Scenario Bad effects on Climate Change
Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC) Energy demand and supply Price/investment Economic impact Medium/long-term analysis
IPAC-SGM
IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL
Energy demand and supply Price/investment IPAC-TIMER Medium/long-term analysis
IPAC-Emission
IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport) IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm
Technology development Environment impact Technology policy
IPAC/AIM-Local Region analysis Medium/short analysis Energy demand and supply Technology policy
IPAC-AIM/tech
IPAC/Gains-Asia
AIM-air
IPAC-health
Environment industry Pollutant emission Medium/long-term analys
Energy demand and suppl F ll range emission Full i i Price, resource, technolog Medium-long term analysis Economic impact Short term forecast/ energy early warning
Medium/short term analysis T h l Technology assessment Detailed technology flow
Climate Model ERI, China
There are many publication on IPAC
There are many publication on IPAC: IPCC TAR, AR4
Methodology framework Global Model IPAC-Emission
Global energy demand and supply Global GHG Emission Global Target g Burden sharing Energy import/export Energy Price Reduction cost
China energy gy and emission scenarios Energy demand by sectors Energy supply Reduction cost
Future economic sector detail Energy gy intensive industryy Reduction cost
Energy technology model IPAC-AIM/technology
Energy economic model IPAC-CGE
GDP by industry sectors: What is the meaning of Low Carbon Economy 煤气的生产和供应业
GDP部门结构
蒸汽热水生产供应业 电力生产供应业
亿元
其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械
1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业 普通机械、专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属 黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业 非金属矿物制品业 橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业 化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业 石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业 木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业 烟草加工业 食品饮料加工、制造业 非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业 有色金属矿采选业
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年份
黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油 煤炭采选业 农业
Investment by industrial sectors 建筑业
工业分部门投资
自来水的生产和供应业 煤气的生产和供应业 蒸汽热水生产供应业
180000
电力生产供应业 其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械
160000
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业
140000
普通机械、专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属
120000
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
亿元
非金属矿物制品业
100000
橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业
80000
化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业
60000
石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业
40000
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业
20000
烟草加工业 食品饮料加工、制造业
0 2005
非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
年份
有色金属矿采选业 黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油
Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC Unit Million Million Million Glass cases Copper Million Ammonia Million Ethylene Million Soda Ash Million Casutic Million Paper Million FertilizerMillion Aluminum Million Paper Million Calcium caMillion Steel Cement
ton ton
ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton ton
2005 355 1060
2020 610 1600
2030 570 1600
2040 440 1200
2050 360 900
399
650
690
670
580
2.6 8.51 5.1 14.67 12.64 62.05 52.2 7.56 46.3 8.5
7 16 7.2 23 24 110 61 34 50 10
7 16 7 24.5 25 115 61 36 50 8
6.5 15 6.5 23.5 25 120 61 36 50 7
4.6 12 5.5 22 24 120 61 33 45 4
Population Population Urbanization rate Urban Population Person per Household Urban Household Rural Population Person per Household Rural Household
2005 1307.56 43% 562.12 2.96 189.91 745.44 4.08 182.71
2010 1360.00 49% 666.40 2.88 221.94 693.60 3.80 189.68
2020 1440.00 63% 907.20 2.80 288.00 532.80 3.50 181.03
2030 1470.00 70% 1029.00 2.75 336.76 441.00 3.40 159.97
2040 1470.00 74% 1087.80 2.70 364.78 382.20 3.20 151.59
Steel production process in China Coke making DIOS or COREX
Direct Reduction
Sintering
Iron making
Pig Iron Steel making
Recycled steel
Electric Furnace
Convertor
Open Hearth
Casting Continuous Casting Heating Hot Rolling Steel Heating
Cool Rolling Steel
2050 1440.00 79% 1137.60 2.65 380.38 302.40 3.00 144.00
Parameter of Urban Household: by 2030 same life quality as that in developed countries Service
Unit
Household, million Share of HH with space heating Index of space heating intensity, 2000=1 Index of space heating time, 2000=1 Sh Share off bbuilding ildi with i h 50% efficiency ffi i standard Ownership of Air Conditioner Index of Air conditioner intensity, 2000=1 Index of air conditioner utilization time, 2000=1 Ownership of Refrigerator Average space of refregeretor Efficiency of Refregeretor Ownership of washing machine times to use washing machine per week O Ownership hi off TV Average Capacity of TV Hours per TV per day Penetration rate of CFL Light per HH Ownership of Water heater Ownership of Solar heater Ownership of Electric cooking Hours per day of electric cooking Capacity of other electric applicance Hours of other electric appliance
2020 288 42% 1.35 1.33 20%
Service 2030 336 44% 1.5 1.36 45%
2050 380 48% 1.6 1.4 65%
130 1.3 1.6
180 1.4 1.8
260 1.6 2.2
120 310
130 390
0.8kWh/天 100 8 220 300W 3.2 100% 21 100% 25% 140 30 1800W 80
0.7kWh/天 100 8 290 280 2.9 100% 27 100% 33% 260 50 2300W 100
per 100HH 100 250 L 0.8kWh/天 per 100HH 100 5.4 per 100HH 180 320W 3.5 100% 14 per 100HH 100% per 100HH 18% per 100HH 130 12 Minutes 1500W W 50 Minutes
2050年的低碳住宅
太阳能利用
舒适和节能 生态生活教育
光伏电池 (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池， 转换效率接近30%
减少10-20% 能源需求 屋顶植被 高效照明 【如 LED照明】 照明】
太阳热利用 普及率: 20-60%
减少50%照明需求， 普及率 100%
（目前 6%）
能源检测系统
高效绝热
（家用电器)
减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率70%
超高效空调
燃料电池
COP =8, 普及率 100%
待机电源耗电 降低1/3 ， 普及率100%
热泵采暖
普及率 0-20%
COP＝5 普及率 30-70%
向公众提供经济和环境 信息促使大家成为 低碳消费
高效家用电器 减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式
5
机动车普及率 Car Ownership 600
US 明显的左 移效应
500
Italy
Canada
Sweden France UK
400
北京2020
Spain 300 台湾
北京2007
200
Greece
杭州2007
100
中国 2030PPP 法
中国2030 汇率法
东营2005 上海2007
新加坡 香港
韩国
India
0 0
5,000
Source: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum
10,000 15,000 GDP per Capita (1997 $ PPP)
20,000
25,000
Vehicle fleet, Low Carbon scenario, 10000 2000 Total Vehicle P Passenger Freight Car Family Car Other Car Mini-Bus Large Bus Bus Motor Cycle
1609 854 716 670 57 613 108 75.3293 184 3771
2005 3160 2132 1027 1919 1100 819 131 82.3080335 214 6582
2010 6227 4299 1928 3921 3145 776 265 113.4 378 9848
2020 18583 15504 3079 14982 14032 950 313 208.8 522 10613
2030 36318 32323 3995 31558 30454 1104 383 382.5 765 11193
2040 51717 46083 5634 45075 43675 1400 524 483.84 1008 11193
2050 55810 48922 6888 47662 46062 1600 214 1045.8 1260 10634
Transport, Low carbon scenario
Family car ownership, per 100HH
Urban Rural
Family car annual travel distance distance, km Average engin size of family cars, litter Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % Share of Biofuel, % Share of electric car, % Share of fuel cell car, %
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
3.37 0.08 9500 1.7 9.2 0.011 1.10% 0% 0%
14 0.2 9500 1.6 8.9 0.016 1.30% 0.12% 0%
36 8 9300 1.6 7.1 0.025 4.1% 3.2% 0.80%
65 38 8635 1.6 5.9 0.046 7.70% 6.80% 1.60%
77 70 8300 1.5 4.8 0.1 12% 12.5% 4.70%
78 90 7480 1.4 4.1 0.21 13% 19.8% 7.90%
Comparison of BaU and Low Carbon Scenario hnology
Efficiency
Ratio in 2030 Reference scenario
ed
Low carbon scenario
Ratio in 2050 Reference scenario
Note
Low carbon Scenario
coke
11900 Mcal/ ton coke, with gas pproduction of 1340 Mcal
58%
50%
77%
42%
generation en
10300 Mcal/ ton coke, with gas production of 1420Mcal
17%
47%
23%
58%
nching
2.4 Mcal/ ton J Recovery
80%
100%
90%
100%
Localization, with promising prospect of market potential
g furnace ternational d level
390 Mcal/ ton sinter lump, saving gy 42% of energy
45%
85%
67%
90%
Needed to localization
urnace of ional d level
3750 Mcal/ ton hot metal, saving 21% of energy
40%
65%
64%
87%
s recovery
Heat and electricity recovery 0.7 Mcal/ ton hot metal
44%
70%
85%
100%
ous
Saving energy
90%
98%
85%
95%
and
86%
of
Fully localization
be
Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario Unit Steel C Cement
Kgce/t Kgce/t Kgce/Weight Cases
Glass
Kgce/万块 Brick Kgce/t Ammonia Kgce/t Ethylene Kgce/t Soda Ash Kgce/t Casutic Kgce/t Calcium carbide Kgce/t pp Copper kWh/t Aluminum Kgce/t Paper Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh
2005 760 132
2020 650 101
24
18
685 1645 1092 340 1410 1482 1273 14320 1047 350
466 1328 796 310 990 1304 1063 12870 840 305
2030 2040 564 554 86 81 14.5 13.8 433 1189 713 290 890 1215 931 12170 761 287
421 1141 693 284 868 1201 877 11923 721 274
2050 545 77 13.1 408 1096 672 279 851 1193 827 11877 686 264
Technology learning curve 1.2
Index, 2005=1
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2005
2020
2030 Year
2050
Hydrate Biomass Ethanol Biomass-Ethanol IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell Hydrogen Vehicle Poly-Generation Solar Thermal Power PV 4th Generation Nuclear Off Shore Wind O Shore On Sh Wind Wi d Biomass Power Advanced NGCC
Primary energy demand, BaU Primary Energy Demand, BaU Bio-Diesel
7000
Ethonal
6000
Biomass Power Wind
4000
Nuclear
3000
Hydro
2000
N.Gas
1000
Oil
0 2000
Coal
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Primary Energy Demand 7000 6000 5000
Mtce
Mtce
5000
Baseline
4000
HLC 3000
HELC
2000
LLC
1000 0 2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CO2 Emission in China 4000 3500 3500 3000
Mt‐C
2500 Baseline
2000
Policy
1500
ELC
1000 500 500 0 2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Investment Demand of Energy Industry 10000
8000
A hundred 6000 million
Base scenario Policy scenario
4000
2000
0 2000
2005
2010 Year
2020
2030
National Energy Expenses 200000 A hundred million
150000 Base scenario 100000 Policy scenario 50000
0 2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
Year
25
GDP Loss, % 6.00% 5.00% 650ppm
4.00%
550ppm
3.00%
450ppm 2.00%
Per Capita
1 00% 1.00%
Carbon Intensity b
0.00% ‐1.00%
2010
2020
2030
2050
2075
2100
Technology Roadmap Field Industry
Transport
Technology
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Advanced energy technique of industryy
2035
2040
2045
Popularization Rate: 90%- 100%
Hybrid Electric Vehicle Popularization Rate:30%
2050
斯德歌尔摩：在欧洲许多城市，自行车、步行在逐渐形成主要交通 方式
32
CCS future 120 100 IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC US-Critical Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal
60 40 20 0 2000
2005
2010
2020 Year
2030
2040
2050
33
Cost curve in power generation in China, 2050 4000 3000 2000
Yuan/t‐C
%
80
1000 0 ‐1000 0
200
400
600
800
1000
‐2000 ‐3000
reduction, m‐tC
1200
1400
1600
Fixed Unit Ivestment 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
3000 yuan/kW
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 International International IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell
China IGCC
China SC
China USC
20% Energy Intensity Target in 11th Five Year Plan: China is taking the lead • 20% energy intensity reduction within 11th Five Year Plan(2005-2010) • Very good for China, not only for energy, but also for environment, i economic i structure optimization i i i • Most ambitious target in the world: making full effort to reach the target • One of the Biggest actions on GHG mitigation: 190million t-C reduction in 2010 compared with baseline, 410million t-C reduction compared with no intensity change
36
Post 2012 option road map of China 2010
2020
2030
2040
Domestic Energy Saving Target APP Post Kyoto Mechanism Bilateral Cooperation Emission Trade Non-constraint Emission R d ti Reduction Target GHG Reduction Target Considering Promises
What is happening now on policy
• • • •
Negotiation towards Copenhagen, and after that 12th Five Year Plan on Energy, Energy Climate change Low Carbon Development Planning and Strategy National long-term energy plan
2050
Domestic climate change strategy • What is the targets of GHG in China? Short-term and longterm? • Key policies and countermeasures for low carbon future • Long-term Energy and emission pathways? • Economy development pattern? • Technology R&D strategy? What kind of technologies? • Near-term action and policies? Cost and benefit of these near-term policies?
Other relative studies: 2008-2010 • Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030: Energy Bureau • 2050 Low carbon Society Emission Scenarios: MOE(Japan), Defra(UK) • New IPCC Scenarios • CCICED low carbon scenarios • Chinese Academy of Engineering: 2050 Energy Strategy, energy ceiling. • Post-Kyoto Options for China • Sector based approach pp analysis: y case studyy for ppower generation in China • Low Carbon Scenario in Province and Cities: Guangdong, Hongkong, Jilin, Jilin City, Baoding, Shanghai, Beijing, Shijiazhuang • AEEMF: Asian Scenarios • Embedded Carbon: international trade, final products
