Manpreet Sethi
Manpreet Sethi, Ph.D ICSSR Senior Fellow at Centre for Air Power Studies New Delhi Manila, 02 June 2013
NPT RevCon 2010: 64 action items New START ratified – Feb 2011 1st NPT PrepCom in Apr-May 2012 ◦ Perfunctory meeting, healthy atm ◦ Adoption of agenda for 2nd meeting
2nd NPT PrepCom in Apr- May 2013 ◦ Issues get thornier
Other developments ◦ No Conference on Middle East WMDFZ ◦ Oslo Conference ◦ DPRK nuclear saber rattling
•Half
Way point in Review Cycle •Assessment of Action Items on 3 pillars • RCW Reports & State of Play
•
Full implementation of 2 items • NWS commit to fully respect their existing commitments on NSA • No discussions in CD on ‘effective int arrangements on NSA
• NWS commit to refrain from nuclear testing pending CTBT’s EIF • No steps to being CTBT into force
No progress on 9 items
◦ No undertaking to eliminate NW/ No commitment to steps leading to disarmt ◦ No change in doctrine US Jan 2012 “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense” commits US “to field nuc forces that can under any circumstances confront an adv with prospect of unacc damage” China 2013 White Paper – No mention of NFU
◦ No agreement to establish subsidiary body in CD ◦ No process to dismantle/convert FM facilities ◦ Nuc modernisation continues
Some
progress on 12 items
◦ Overall reduction in global stockpile of NW ◦ P-5 discussions on transparency, CBM & verification Met 4 times China chairing the Definition of nuclear terms Standard reporting form - Accepted idea in principle but no official endorsement to PDNI proposal
◦ What will NWS report to 3rd PrepCom in 2014?
Full implementation – Zero items No progress – One item
◦ Application of IAEA safeguards to peaceful nuc facilities in NWS ◦ CTBT & FMCT – status unchanged GGE on FMCT formed; Work to finish after next RevCon
Significant Progress – 8 items ◦ Focus on role & resources of IAEA ◦ Implementation of XCs ◦ Multilateral approaches to nuclear fuel cycle IUEC at Angarsk operational BoG endorsement to IAEA run LEU bank
•
Compliance concerns – Iran – P5 + 1; Uranium enrichment current sticking point – End enrichment, ship stocks out, get fuel plates for TRR, nuc security assistance, spares for civ aircraft – Iran – ease sanctions, right to enrich – Need for transparency, trust and CBMs
•
No consensus on Article X Standoff between NWS & NNWS ◦ “Nobody should assume that any regime structured on a have/have not principle can be sustained forever” -- UN High Rep for Disarmament Affairs at NATO Conf
Significant Progress on 9 items ◦ Cooperation in transfer of peaceful use of nuclear energy ◦ Strengthen IAEA technical cooperation prog ◦ Encourage national, bilateral and int efforts to train nuclear workforce ◦ Follow int stds for transport of radioactive materials
Some Progress on 9 items ◦ Strengthen IAEA resources for tech cooperation ◦ Encourage states to abide by nuc safety and security conventions ◦ Promote sharing of best practices
Major plank of NPT consensus in 1995 Commitment to make progress in 2010 Intention to hold conference Appointment of facilitator and host country 70 mtgs with stake holders in the region – “need to adopt an open & forward looking approach” – “engage with each other in constructive dialogue & cooperation”
Complications as result of Arab Spring, Libya and Syria – general tension in region
No conference in Dec’12 Never any clarity on conduct of conference
◦ When, duration, agenda, level of participation… ◦ Participating states…
No forthcoming leadership from USA Unhappy Arab states threatened to boycott 2nd PrepCom
127 countries + NGOs 5 NWS not present – “distracting” (!!!) India & Pakistan present Joint statement Focus on humanitarian consequences of use of NW No agency/govt can handle nuclear use Delegitimize use and possession of NW ◦ “Use of NW incompatible with international humanitarian law” Rules of distinction, precaution & proportionality
3rd nuclear test in Feb 2013 Unanimous UNSCR sanctions Saber rattling by DPRK; tense months Return to talks? Then??? What does this episode demonstrate?
◦ Nuclear brinkmanship a viable policy In employment - Nuclear thinking in Japan & South Korea; US response In results – no major gains
BMD
◦ Threat perception ◦ Possibility of cooperation On BMD or other arms control
Challenge of space security
◦ Recent developments ◦ Will militarisation spill into weaponisation?
Inter-state Equations ◦ China’s assertiveness ◦ US rebalancing ◦ Russia’s ‘me too’
Lot of concern over non-pro, but over different issues ◦ Divide between NWS and NNWS
Need for pol leadership with clear vision ◦ Will Obama realize the Prague vision??
Need for understanding that the sum of international security is bigger & more useful than narrow, individual interests
NPT RevCon 2010: 64 action items New START ratified – Feb 2011 1st NPT PrepCom in Apr-May 2012 ◦ Perfunctory meeting, healthy atm ◦ Adoption of agenda for 2nd meeting
2nd NPT PrepCom in Apr- May 2013 ◦ Issues get thornier
Other developments ◦ No Conference on Middle East WMDFZ ◦ Oslo Conference ◦ DPRK nuclear saber rattling
•Half
Way point in Review Cycle •Assessment of Action Items on 3 pillars • RCW Reports & State of Play
•
Full implementation of 2 items • NWS commit to fully respect their existing commitments on NSA • No discussions in CD on ‘effective int arrangements on NSA
• NWS commit to refrain from nuclear testing pending CTBT’s EIF • No steps to being CTBT into force
No progress on 9 items
◦ No undertaking to eliminate NW/ No commitment to steps leading to disarmt ◦ No change in doctrine US Jan 2012 “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense” commits US “to field nuc forces that can under any circumstances confront an adv with prospect of unacc damage” China 2013 White Paper – No mention of NFU
◦ No agreement to establish subsidiary body in CD ◦ No process to dismantle/convert FM facilities ◦ Nuc modernisation continues
Some
progress on 12 items
◦ Overall reduction in global stockpile of NW ◦ P-5 discussions on transparency, CBM & verification Met 4 times China chairing the Definition of nuclear terms Standard reporting form - Accepted idea in principle but no official endorsement to PDNI proposal
◦ What will NWS report to 3rd PrepCom in 2014?
Full implementation – Zero items No progress – One item
◦ Application of IAEA safeguards to peaceful nuc facilities in NWS ◦ CTBT & FMCT – status unchanged GGE on FMCT formed; Work to finish after next RevCon
Significant Progress – 8 items ◦ Focus on role & resources of IAEA ◦ Implementation of XCs ◦ Multilateral approaches to nuclear fuel cycle IUEC at Angarsk operational BoG endorsement to IAEA run LEU bank
•
Compliance concerns – Iran – P5 + 1; Uranium enrichment current sticking point – End enrichment, ship stocks out, get fuel plates for TRR, nuc security assistance, spares for civ aircraft – Iran – ease sanctions, right to enrich – Need for transparency, trust and CBMs
•
No consensus on Article X Standoff between NWS & NNWS ◦ “Nobody should assume that any regime structured on a have/have not principle can be sustained forever” -- UN High Rep for Disarmament Affairs at NATO Conf
Significant Progress on 9 items ◦ Cooperation in transfer of peaceful use of nuclear energy ◦ Strengthen IAEA technical cooperation prog ◦ Encourage national, bilateral and int efforts to train nuclear workforce ◦ Follow int stds for transport of radioactive materials
Some Progress on 9 items ◦ Strengthen IAEA resources for tech cooperation ◦ Encourage states to abide by nuc safety and security conventions ◦ Promote sharing of best practices
Major plank of NPT consensus in 1995 Commitment to make progress in 2010 Intention to hold conference Appointment of facilitator and host country 70 mtgs with stake holders in the region – “need to adopt an open & forward looking approach” – “engage with each other in constructive dialogue & cooperation”
Complications as result of Arab Spring, Libya and Syria – general tension in region
No conference in Dec’12 Never any clarity on conduct of conference
◦ When, duration, agenda, level of participation… ◦ Participating states…
No forthcoming leadership from USA Unhappy Arab states threatened to boycott 2nd PrepCom
127 countries + NGOs 5 NWS not present – “distracting” (!!!) India & Pakistan present Joint statement Focus on humanitarian consequences of use of NW No agency/govt can handle nuclear use Delegitimize use and possession of NW ◦ “Use of NW incompatible with international humanitarian law” Rules of distinction, precaution & proportionality
3rd nuclear test in Feb 2013 Unanimous UNSCR sanctions Saber rattling by DPRK; tense months Return to talks? Then??? What does this episode demonstrate?
◦ Nuclear brinkmanship a viable policy In employment - Nuclear thinking in Japan & South Korea; US response In results – no major gains
BMD
◦ Threat perception ◦ Possibility of cooperation On BMD or other arms control
Challenge of space security
◦ Recent developments ◦ Will militarisation spill into weaponisation?
Inter-state Equations ◦ China’s assertiveness ◦ US rebalancing ◦ Russia’s ‘me too’
Lot of concern over non-pro, but over different issues ◦ Divide between NWS and NNWS
Need for pol leadership with clear vision ◦ Will Obama realize the Prague vision??
Need for understanding that the sum of international security is bigger & more useful than narrow, individual interests
