Transformational Leadership
Alabama New Construction Report – March 2014 Monthly Indicators Permits March permits have increased 9.7 percent from last month. Figures also show an decrease of 4.8 percent from March '13.
Starts March starts have increased 2.7 percent from February '14. March '14 figures show an decrease of 3.9 percent from March ’13.
Recent Figures Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg
March February March March
2014 2014 2013 '11-'13
701 639 736 594
9.7% -4.8% 18.1%
Year-to-Date vs. Last Year (YoY)
March March
2014 2013
1,982 2,036
-2.7%
Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg
March February March March
2014 2014 2013 '11-'13
654 632 681 575
3.5% -3.9% 13.8%
March March
2013 2012
1,894 1,948
-2.8%
Year to Date vs.Prior Year
State
Trends * 2014 permits in Alabama were down 2.7% compared to 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 1.3% & US permits down 0.4%. * Alabama permits slipped 4.8% compared to March 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 1.4% & US permits did not change. * 2014 Starts were down 2.8%. In comparison, South Region Starts were up 3.4% & US Starts up 2.9%. * Alabama housing starts slipped 3.9% compared to March 2013. In comparison, south region starts were up 1.7% & US down .1%.
Commentary
March new home sales improved 13.6% from the same period last year. As anticipated due to seasonal nature of sales, sales advanced 21.8% from the prior month. In 2013, new home sales in Alabama improved by 5.8% compared to 2012. This improvement came on the heels of 7.2% growth in 2012 (both 2011 & 2010 sales were down 13% from respective prior year). Average days on market in March of 196 represents a 65.3% increase from last March - this is consistent with the overall sluggishness of market during the first quarter. Total new construction sales during the first quarter were 829 units, a 1.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2013. Months of new home supply in March was 4.9 months; compared to 6.3 months in February 2014 (down 22%) and 5.6 months in March 2013 (down 12%). Statewide new construction inventory is approximately 1.7% below last March and 5.9% lower than last month. This direction reverses recent trends that showed Alabama home builders bringing more product to the market in response to the uptick in overall demand. This warrants a continued close watch as we move into and through the home buying season. According to the Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, statewide related residential construction employment in March improved 1.0% (600 jobs) to 63,300 from last month but was 1.7% below or 900 jobs below the same month a year ago. According to NAHB's Chief Economist, David Crowe during NAHB's biannual Construction Forecast Seminar, "Improving economic fundamentals combined with a more optimistic consumer and an increasing need for new homes should support a continuing recovery in the housing market." Robert Denk, NAHB Senior Economist noted, "The recovery will vary across regions..reflects the depth of each state’s housing market contraction."
Local 15 out of the 27 associations (56% - same as February) reported building permit gains from the prior month while 17 associations (63% - up from 45% in February) experienced gains in housing starts. Nine associations (33% - up from 30% last month) experienced an increase from their March 2013 monthly housing starts. The top five YTD markets for housing starts through March by positive percentage change from the same period a year ago: Jackson County (487%), Cullman County (89%), Enterprise (83%), Greater Morgan County (58%), and Phenix City (40%). Here's a look at YTD housing start growth rates from select markets from across the state: Baldwin County (-4%), Greater Montgomery (-15%), Birmingham (6%), Huntsville (-13%), Shoals Area (3%), Dothan/Wiregrass (-15%), Lee County (7%), Tuscaloosa (15%), and Mobile (-20%) . © 2014 ACRE All Rights Reserved
NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the reporting municipalities/boards/associations. ACRE does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy.
©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu
Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67
Transformational Leadership
New Construction Report - March 2014 NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT STATISTIC TOTALS Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
Alabama State Total South Total* United States Total*
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
March-13
% Difference
YTD
YTD
March-14
March-13
701
639
9.7%
736
-4.8%
1,982
2,036
28,500
24,900
14.5%
28,100
1.4%
77,500
76,500
-2.7% 1.3%
50,800
41,200
23.3%
50,800
0.0%
133,100
133,600
-0.4%
*Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau
NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS BY AREA Association
Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
March-13
YTD
YTD
March-14
March-13
% Difference
Athens/Limestone **
13
12
8.3%
17
-23.5%
31
45
-31.1%
Baldwin County **
70
94
-25.5%
113
-38.1%
277
279
-0.7%
Blount County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
0
0
N/A
Chilton County
1
1
0.0%
0
#DIV/0!
2
2
0.0%
Cullman County
7
3
133.3%
0
#DIV/0!
14
5
180.0%
Dekalb County **
2
1
100.0%
1
100.0%
3
4
-25.0%
Enterprise
8
8
0.0%
8
0.0%
22
14
57.1%
149
152
-2.0%
148
0.7%
415
396
4.8%
1
3
-66.7%
5
-80.0%
5
16
-68.8%
Greater Birmingham ** Greater Calhoun County ** Greater Gadsden **
6
5
20.0%
8
-25.0%
16
21
-23.8%
Greater Montgomery
35
38
-7.9%
45
-22.2%
101
117
-13.7%
Greater Morgan County **
30
17
76.5%
14
114.3%
65
45
44.4%
Dothan & Wiregrass Area
27
15
80.0%
24
12.5%
54
67
-19.4%
Metropolitan Mobile**
35
23
52.2%
33
6.1%
87
113
-23.0% 16.8%
Tuscaloosa**
58
40
45.0%
50
16.0%
181
155
Huntsville/Madison **
172
103
67.0%
159
8.2%
400
437
-8.5%
Jackson County **
2
1
100.0%
0
#DIV/0!
6
3
100.0%
Lee County
37
77
-51.9%
53
-30.2%
178
159
11.9%
Macon County
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
N/A
0
2
N/A
Marshall County **
7
6
16.7%
14
-50.0%
16
28
-42.9%
Muscle Shoals **
11
17
-35.3%
13
-15.4%
40
45
-11.1%
Northwest Alabama
1
1
0.0%
0
#DIV/0!
2
1
100.0%
Phenix City
10
18
-44.4%
8
25.0%
43
28
53.6%
South Alabama
1
0
#DIV/0!
6
-83.3%
1
11
-90.9% -47.2%
St. Clair County **
14
4
250.0%
14
0.0%
19
36
Tallapoosa County
3
0
#DIV/0!
1
200.0%
3
3
0.0%
Walker County
1
0
N/A
2
N/A
1
4
-75.0%
**Source Partner: www.marketgraphicsalabama.com Process: Every month data is collected from municipalities all around the state, in particular the municipalities’ building/inspections department. We also limited our data collection to municipalities with a population of 2500 or greater. By gathering the number of single family new construction permits that are issued each month it allows observation of growth or decline in the new housing market. *NOTE: Permit counts may be subject to slight change month over month due to updated permit reports from certain municpalities in previous months
©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu
Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67
Transformational Leadership
PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS TOTALS Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
Alabama State Total South Total United States Total
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
March-13
% Difference
YTD
YTD
March-14
March-13
654
632
3.5%
681
-3.9%
1,894
1,948
-2.8%
26,143
24,386
7.2%
25,701
1.7%
73,662
71,252
3.4%
45,499
41,987
8.4%
45,547
-0.1%
129,300
125,694
2.9%
* Due to the Government shutdown September and October stats will not be updated till December 18th.
PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS BY LOCAL MARKETS Association
Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
Athens/Limestone
13
10
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
March-13
21.7%
18
YTD
YTD
% Difference
March-14
March-13
-30.0%
34
46
-26.6%
Baldwin County
82
99
-17.2%
94
-12.2%
272
285
-4.5%
Blount County
0
0
#DIV/0!
0
#DIV/0!
0
0
N/A
Chilton County
1
1
25.4%
1
58.5%
2
2
N/A
Cullman County
5
3
39.2%
1
291.5%
11
6
89.0%
Dekalb County
1
1
74.7%
1
38.0%
3
4
-25.0% 83.2%
Enterprise Greater Birmingham Greater Calhoun County
8
7
10.6%
5
38.4%
21
11
141
132
7.0%
131
7.9%
380
358
6.1%
2
1
74.0%
5
-66.4%
5
14
-63.5%
Greater Gadsden
5
4
19.5%
8
-32.0%
13
20
-33.7%
Greater Montgomery
35
33
7.8%
39
-10.3%
99
116
-14.9%
Greater Morgan County
23
17
33.7%
16
43.3%
65
41
58.0%
Dothan & Wiregrass Area
20
14
41.4%
24
-16.6%
49
57
-14.6%
Metropolitan Mobile
31
30
5.3%
32
-1.0%
98
123
-20.1%
Tuscaloosa
52
58
-10.7%
52
-0.1%
177
154
14.9%
Huntsville/Madison
134
112
19.2%
147
-8.9%
352
405
-13.0%
Jackson County
2
2
-16.3%
1
116.7%
17
3
487.2% 6.9%
Lee County
54
65
-17.8%
54
-0.9%
169
158
Macon County
0
0
#DIV/0!
1
N/A
0
2
N/A
Marshall County
7
8
-6.3%
11
-33.5%
25
26
-5.2%
Muscle Shoals
13
14
-5.4%
14
-3.5%
40
39
3.3%
Northwest Alabama
1
1
39.7%
1
39.7%
2
2
-19.5%
Phenix City
13
15
-12.3%
8
67.4%
38
27
40.1%
South Alabama
1
0
41.9%
4
-86.4%
2
11
-81.7%
St. Clair County
9
4
121.6%
12
-20.8%
20
34
-41.3%
Tallapoosa County
1
0
1083.3%
1
3.6%
2
3
-22.5%
Walker County
1
0
350.0%
1
-55.0%
1
3
-61.0%
*Starts data not available due to that is it a calculated statistic from previous months data that is not available.
Some variance in totals due to decimal extension.
© 2014 ACRE All Rights Reserved NOTE : This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the local municipality's building department. Alabama Center for Real Estate - University of Alabama does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy. Defintion: Housing starts are a derived value using a percentage distribution based on the particular region in the United States multiplied times the number of building permits issued in that particular month. Calculation: The distribution for the South Region is as follows: Same Month as Authorization = 44%; 1 Month Prior = 37%; 2 Months Prior = 9%; 3 Months Prior = 3%; 4 Months or more = 7%
©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu
Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67
Transformational Leadership
Metro Market New Construction Report* (The 5 Metro Alabama Markets Represent
+/- 70%
of the State's New Construction Transactions)
Metro Markets Combined
Total New Construction Sold Number of Units on Market Median Selling Price Average Selling Price Average Days on Market
Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
% Difference
% Difference
Last Year March-13
YTD
YTD
March-14
March-13
335
275
21.8%
295
13.6%
1,634
1,736
-5.9%
1,663
-1.7%
-4.3%
$
236,293
-4.7%
$
230,310
$
245,558
2.8%
$
249,700
118
65.3%
$
225,104
$
235,136
$
252,441
$
246,444
2.4%
145
34.6%
196
829
% Difference
845
-1.9%
$
223,498
3.0%
$
235,446
6.1%
104
55.9%
N/A
N/A
162
N/A
Total New Construction Sold
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
Last Month
March-14
February-13
129
104
24.0%
110
17.3%
310
279
11.1%
108
82
31.7%
93
16.1%
270
302
-10.6%
40
23
73.9%
34
17.6%
76
100
-24.0%
47
53
-11.3%
47
0.0%
133
119
11.8%
11
13
-15.4%
11
0.0%
40
45
-11.1%
March-13
YTD
YTD
March-14
March-13
% Difference
Current Month
Number of Units on Market
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
I/S
663
705
-6.0%
692
-4.2%
5.1
419
454
-7.7%
471
-11.0%
3.9
154
160
-3.8%
180
-14.4%
3.9
239
251
-4.8%
186
28.5%
5.1
159
166
-4.2%
134
18.7%
14.5
March-13
Ratio
Median Selling Price
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
March-13
YTD
YTD
March-14
March-13
% Difference
$
250,900
$
261,737
-4.1%
$
238,516
5.2%
$
253,456
$
221,532
$
229,720
$
261,375
-12.1%
$
245,000
-6.2%
$
245,897
$
234,943
14.4% 4.7%
$
179,900
$
174,900
2.9%
$
176,900
1.7%
$
184,900
$
176,267
4.9%
$
245,000
$
242,699
0.9%
$
251,048
-2.4%
$
240,900
$
250,816
-4.0%
$
220,000
$
234,967
-6.4%
$
270,000
-18.5%
$
226,397
$
233,933
-3.2%
Average Selling Price
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
March-13
YTD
YTD
March-14
March-13
% Difference
$
287,383
$
283,206
1.5%
$
258,239
11.3%
$
280,049
$
251,493
$
247,872
$
264,657
-6.3%
$
244,492
1.4%
$
259,101
$
248,774
11.4% 4.2%
$
229,846
$
189,853
21.1%
$
182,499
25.9%
$
209,152
$
182,654
14.5%
$
249,845
$
237,411
5.2%
$
247,295
1.0%
$
243,676
$
243,058
0.3%
$
247,258
$
257,093
-3.8%
$
295,264
-16.3%
$
256,522
$
251,251
2.1%
Average Days on Market
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
Current Month
Last Month
March-14
February-13
Unavailable
Unavailable
N/A
Unavailable
121
177
-31.6%
102
180
206
-12.6%
123
214
109
96.3%
96
267
89
200.0%
152
75.7%
YTD March-13
N/A
Unavailable
Unavailable
N/A
18.6%
131
73
79.1%
46.3%
209
122
70.8%
122.9%
148
93
59.5%
158
126
25.1%
* Source: MLS
©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu
% Difference
YTD March-14
March-13
Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67
Building Alabama's Multimedia Real Estate Network
Alabama New Single Family Building Permits Issued 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
US Total New Single Family Building Permits Issued 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000
Year-Over-Year Change for Building Permits Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Alabama
©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu
U.S.
Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67
Jan
Feb
Mar