March - Home Builders Association of Alabama

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Transformational Leadership

Alabama New Construction Report – March 2014 Monthly Indicators Permits March permits have increased 9.7 percent from last month. Figures also show an decrease of 4.8 percent from March '13.

Starts March starts have increased 2.7 percent from February '14. March '14 figures show an decrease of 3.9 percent from March ’13.

Recent Figures Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg

March February March March

2014 2014 2013 '11-'13

701 639 736 594

9.7% -4.8% 18.1%

Year-to-Date vs. Last Year (YoY)

March March

2014 2013

1,982 2,036

-2.7%

Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg

March February March March

2014 2014 2013 '11-'13

654 632 681 575

3.5% -3.9% 13.8%

March March

2013 2012

1,894 1,948

-2.8%

Year to Date vs.Prior Year

State

Trends * 2014 permits in Alabama were down 2.7% compared to 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 1.3% & US permits down 0.4%. * Alabama permits slipped 4.8% compared to March 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 1.4% & US permits did not change. * 2014 Starts were down 2.8%. In comparison, South Region Starts were up 3.4% & US Starts up 2.9%. * Alabama housing starts slipped 3.9% compared to March 2013. In comparison, south region starts were up 1.7% & US down .1%.

Commentary

March new home sales improved 13.6% from the same period last year. As anticipated due to seasonal nature of sales, sales advanced 21.8% from the prior month. In 2013, new home sales in Alabama improved by 5.8% compared to 2012. This improvement came on the heels of 7.2% growth in 2012 (both 2011 & 2010 sales were down 13% from respective prior year). Average days on market in March of 196 represents a 65.3% increase from last March - this is consistent with the overall sluggishness of market during the first quarter. Total new construction sales during the first quarter were 829 units, a 1.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2013. Months of new home supply in March was 4.9 months; compared to 6.3 months in February 2014 (down 22%) and 5.6 months in March 2013 (down 12%). Statewide new construction inventory is approximately 1.7% below last March and 5.9% lower than last month. This direction reverses recent trends that showed Alabama home builders bringing more product to the market in response to the uptick in overall demand. This warrants a continued close watch as we move into and through the home buying season. According to the Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, statewide related residential construction employment in March improved 1.0% (600 jobs) to 63,300 from last month but was 1.7% below or 900 jobs below the same month a year ago. According to NAHB's Chief Economist, David Crowe during NAHB's biannual Construction Forecast Seminar, "Improving economic fundamentals combined with a more optimistic consumer and an increasing need for new homes should support a continuing recovery in the housing market." Robert Denk, NAHB Senior Economist noted, "The recovery will vary across regions..reflects the depth of each state’s housing market contraction."

Local 15 out of the 27 associations (56% - same as February) reported building permit gains from the prior month while 17 associations (63% - up from 45% in February) experienced gains in housing starts. Nine associations (33% - up from 30% last month) experienced an increase from their March 2013 monthly housing starts. The top five YTD markets for housing starts through March by positive percentage change from the same period a year ago: Jackson County (487%), Cullman County (89%), Enterprise (83%), Greater Morgan County (58%), and Phenix City (40%). Here's a look at YTD housing start growth rates from select markets from across the state: Baldwin County (-4%), Greater Montgomery (-15%), Birmingham (6%), Huntsville (-13%), Shoals Area (3%), Dothan/Wiregrass (-15%), Lee County (7%), Tuscaloosa (15%), and Mobile (-20%) . © 2014 ACRE All Rights Reserved

NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the reporting municipalities/boards/associations. ACRE does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy.

©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu

Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67

Transformational Leadership

New Construction Report - March 2014 NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT STATISTIC TOTALS Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

Alabama State Total South Total* United States Total*

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

March-13

% Difference

YTD

YTD

March-14

March-13

701

639

9.7%

736

-4.8%

1,982

2,036

28,500

24,900

14.5%

28,100

1.4%

77,500

76,500

-2.7% 1.3%

50,800

41,200

23.3%

50,800

0.0%

133,100

133,600

-0.4%

*Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau

NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS BY AREA Association

Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

March-13

YTD

YTD

March-14

March-13

% Difference

Athens/Limestone **

13

12

8.3%

17

-23.5%

31

45

-31.1%

Baldwin County **

70

94

-25.5%

113

-38.1%

277

279

-0.7%

Blount County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

0

0

N/A

Chilton County

1

1

0.0%

0

#DIV/0!

2

2

0.0%

Cullman County

7

3

133.3%

0

#DIV/0!

14

5

180.0%

Dekalb County **

2

1

100.0%

1

100.0%

3

4

-25.0%

Enterprise

8

8

0.0%

8

0.0%

22

14

57.1%

149

152

-2.0%

148

0.7%

415

396

4.8%

1

3

-66.7%

5

-80.0%

5

16

-68.8%

Greater Birmingham ** Greater Calhoun County ** Greater Gadsden **

6

5

20.0%

8

-25.0%

16

21

-23.8%

Greater Montgomery

35

38

-7.9%

45

-22.2%

101

117

-13.7%

Greater Morgan County **

30

17

76.5%

14

114.3%

65

45

44.4%

Dothan & Wiregrass Area

27

15

80.0%

24

12.5%

54

67

-19.4%

Metropolitan Mobile**

35

23

52.2%

33

6.1%

87

113

-23.0% 16.8%

Tuscaloosa**

58

40

45.0%

50

16.0%

181

155

Huntsville/Madison **

172

103

67.0%

159

8.2%

400

437

-8.5%

Jackson County **

2

1

100.0%

0

#DIV/0!

6

3

100.0%

Lee County

37

77

-51.9%

53

-30.2%

178

159

11.9%

Macon County

0

0

#DIV/0!

0

N/A

0

2

N/A

Marshall County **

7

6

16.7%

14

-50.0%

16

28

-42.9%

Muscle Shoals **

11

17

-35.3%

13

-15.4%

40

45

-11.1%

Northwest Alabama

1

1

0.0%

0

#DIV/0!

2

1

100.0%

Phenix City

10

18

-44.4%

8

25.0%

43

28

53.6%

South Alabama

1

0

#DIV/0!

6

-83.3%

1

11

-90.9% -47.2%

St. Clair County **

14

4

250.0%

14

0.0%

19

36

Tallapoosa County

3

0

#DIV/0!

1

200.0%

3

3

0.0%

Walker County

1

0

N/A

2

N/A

1

4

-75.0%

**Source Partner: www.marketgraphicsalabama.com Process: Every month data is collected from municipalities all around the state, in particular the municipalities’ building/inspections department. We also limited our data collection to municipalities with a population of 2500 or greater. By gathering the number of single family new construction permits that are issued each month it allows observation of growth or decline in the new housing market. *NOTE: Permit counts may be subject to slight change month over month due to updated permit reports from certain municpalities in previous months

©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu

Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67

Transformational Leadership

PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS TOTALS Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

Alabama State Total South Total United States Total

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

March-13

% Difference

YTD

YTD

March-14

March-13

654

632

3.5%

681

-3.9%

1,894

1,948

-2.8%

26,143

24,386

7.2%

25,701

1.7%

73,662

71,252

3.4%

45,499

41,987

8.4%

45,547

-0.1%

129,300

125,694

2.9%

* Due to the Government shutdown September and October stats will not be updated till December 18th.

PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS BY LOCAL MARKETS Association

Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

Athens/Limestone

13

10

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

March-13

21.7%

18

YTD

YTD

% Difference

March-14

March-13

-30.0%

34

46

-26.6%

Baldwin County

82

99

-17.2%

94

-12.2%

272

285

-4.5%

Blount County

0

0

#DIV/0!

0

#DIV/0!

0

0

N/A

Chilton County

1

1

25.4%

1

58.5%

2

2

N/A

Cullman County

5

3

39.2%

1

291.5%

11

6

89.0%

Dekalb County

1

1

74.7%

1

38.0%

3

4

-25.0% 83.2%

Enterprise Greater Birmingham Greater Calhoun County

8

7

10.6%

5

38.4%

21

11

141

132

7.0%

131

7.9%

380

358

6.1%

2

1

74.0%

5

-66.4%

5

14

-63.5%

Greater Gadsden

5

4

19.5%

8

-32.0%

13

20

-33.7%

Greater Montgomery

35

33

7.8%

39

-10.3%

99

116

-14.9%

Greater Morgan County

23

17

33.7%

16

43.3%

65

41

58.0%

Dothan & Wiregrass Area

20

14

41.4%

24

-16.6%

49

57

-14.6%

Metropolitan Mobile

31

30

5.3%

32

-1.0%

98

123

-20.1%

Tuscaloosa

52

58

-10.7%

52

-0.1%

177

154

14.9%

Huntsville/Madison

134

112

19.2%

147

-8.9%

352

405

-13.0%

Jackson County

2

2

-16.3%

1

116.7%

17

3

487.2% 6.9%

Lee County

54

65

-17.8%

54

-0.9%

169

158

Macon County

0

0

#DIV/0!

1

N/A

0

2

N/A

Marshall County

7

8

-6.3%

11

-33.5%

25

26

-5.2%

Muscle Shoals

13

14

-5.4%

14

-3.5%

40

39

3.3%

Northwest Alabama

1

1

39.7%

1

39.7%

2

2

-19.5%

Phenix City

13

15

-12.3%

8

67.4%

38

27

40.1%

South Alabama

1

0

41.9%

4

-86.4%

2

11

-81.7%

St. Clair County

9

4

121.6%

12

-20.8%

20

34

-41.3%

Tallapoosa County

1

0

1083.3%

1

3.6%

2

3

-22.5%

Walker County

1

0

350.0%

1

-55.0%

1

3

-61.0%

*Starts data not available due to that is it a calculated statistic from previous months data that is not available.

Some variance in totals due to decimal extension.

© 2014 ACRE All Rights Reserved NOTE : This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the local municipality's building department. Alabama Center for Real Estate - University of Alabama does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy. Defintion: Housing starts are a derived value using a percentage distribution based on the particular region in the United States multiplied times the number of building permits issued in that particular month. Calculation: The distribution for the South Region is as follows: Same Month as Authorization = 44%; 1 Month Prior = 37%; 2 Months Prior = 9%; 3 Months Prior = 3%; 4 Months or more = 7%

©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu

Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67

Transformational Leadership

Metro Market New Construction Report* (The 5 Metro Alabama Markets Represent

+/- 70%

of the State's New Construction Transactions)

Metro Markets Combined

Total New Construction Sold Number of Units on Market Median Selling Price Average Selling Price Average Days on Market

Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

% Difference

% Difference

Last Year March-13

YTD

YTD

March-14

March-13

335

275

21.8%

295

13.6%

1,634

1,736

-5.9%

1,663

-1.7%

-4.3%

$

236,293

-4.7%

$

230,310

$

245,558

2.8%

$

249,700

118

65.3%

$

225,104

$

235,136

$

252,441

$

246,444

2.4%

145

34.6%

196

829

% Difference

845

-1.9%

$

223,498

3.0%

$

235,446

6.1%

104

55.9%

N/A

N/A

162

N/A

Total New Construction Sold

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

Last Month

March-14

February-13

129

104

24.0%

110

17.3%

310

279

11.1%

108

82

31.7%

93

16.1%

270

302

-10.6%

40

23

73.9%

34

17.6%

76

100

-24.0%

47

53

-11.3%

47

0.0%

133

119

11.8%

11

13

-15.4%

11

0.0%

40

45

-11.1%

March-13

YTD

YTD

March-14

March-13

% Difference

Current Month

Number of Units on Market

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

I/S

663

705

-6.0%

692

-4.2%

5.1

419

454

-7.7%

471

-11.0%

3.9

154

160

-3.8%

180

-14.4%

3.9

239

251

-4.8%

186

28.5%

5.1

159

166

-4.2%

134

18.7%

14.5

March-13

Ratio

Median Selling Price

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

March-13

YTD

YTD

March-14

March-13

% Difference

$

250,900

$

261,737

-4.1%

$

238,516

5.2%

$

253,456

$

221,532

$

229,720

$

261,375

-12.1%

$

245,000

-6.2%

$

245,897

$

234,943

14.4% 4.7%

$

179,900

$

174,900

2.9%

$

176,900

1.7%

$

184,900

$

176,267

4.9%

$

245,000

$

242,699

0.9%

$

251,048

-2.4%

$

240,900

$

250,816

-4.0%

$

220,000

$

234,967

-6.4%

$

270,000

-18.5%

$

226,397

$

233,933

-3.2%

Average Selling Price

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

March-13

YTD

YTD

March-14

March-13

% Difference

$

287,383

$

283,206

1.5%

$

258,239

11.3%

$

280,049

$

251,493

$

247,872

$

264,657

-6.3%

$

244,492

1.4%

$

259,101

$

248,774

11.4% 4.2%

$

229,846

$

189,853

21.1%

$

182,499

25.9%

$

209,152

$

182,654

14.5%

$

249,845

$

237,411

5.2%

$

247,295

1.0%

$

243,676

$

243,058

0.3%

$

247,258

$

257,093

-3.8%

$

295,264

-16.3%

$

256,522

$

251,251

2.1%

Average Days on Market

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

Current Month

Last Month

March-14

February-13

Unavailable

Unavailable

N/A

Unavailable

121

177

-31.6%

102

180

206

-12.6%

123

214

109

96.3%

96

267

89

200.0%

152

75.7%

YTD March-13

N/A

Unavailable

Unavailable

N/A

18.6%

131

73

79.1%

46.3%

209

122

70.8%

122.9%

148

93

59.5%

158

126

25.1%

* Source: MLS

©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu

% Difference

YTD March-14

March-13

Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67

Building Alabama's Multimedia Real Estate Network

Alabama New Single Family Building Permits Issued 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300

US Total New Single Family Building Permits Issued 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000

Year-Over-Year Change for Building Permits Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Alabama

©ACRE 2014 acre.cba.ua.edu

U.S.

Report Compliments of: ACRE Corporate Cabinet http://acre.cba.ua.edu/page.php?id=67

Jan

Feb

Mar