Alabama New Construction Report – May 2015 Monthly Indicators Permits May permits have decreased 2.4 percent from last month. Figures also show an increase of 4.7 percent from May '14.
Starts May starts have increased 0.4 percent from April '15. May '15 figures show an increase of 4.0 percent from May ’14.
Recent Figures
Trends
Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg
May April May May
2015 2015 2014 '12-'14
779 798 744 755
-2.4% 4.7% 3.1%
Year-to-Date vs. Last Year (YoY)
May May
2015 2014
3,669 3,516
4.4%
Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg
May April May May
2015 2015 2014 '12-'14
777 773 746 715
0.4% 4.0% 8.7%
Year to Date vs.Prior Year
May May
2015 2014
3,591 3,374
6.4%
* Alabama permits increased 4.7% compared to May 2014. In comparison, south region permits rose 6.9% & US permits were up 4.9%. * 2014 Recap: Permits in Alabama slipped .8% YOY from 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 3.4% & US permits were up 1.3%. * Alabama housing starts improved 4.0% compared to May 2014. In concert, south region starts increased 5.6% while US starts improved 8.9%. * 2014 Recap: Starts in Alabama slipped 2% YOY from 2013. In comparison, South Region Starts were up 6% & US Starts up 2.9%.
Commentary State Demand: New home sales totaling 333 units in May increased 7.4 percent from the same period last year. May new homes sales were also up 9.5 percent from the prior month. Average days on market in May of 108 represent a 35.9% decrease from last May which is encouraging news. Supply: Months of new home supply in May was 5.1 months; compared to 5.9 months in April 2015 (favorably down 13.6%) and 5.2 months in May 2014 (down 1.9%). Statewide new construction inventory is approximately 5.7% above last May but down 5.8% from last month. According to the Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, statewide related residential construction employment in May increased 1.2% (800 jobs) to 65,500 from the same period last year but is down .9% or 600 jobs from last month. This represents the eleventh consecutive month of positive YOY comparisons associated with construction employment. National Perspective from National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) From David Crowe, NAHB chief economist: “The Housing Market Index (HMI) indices measuring current and future sales expectations are at their highest levels since the last quarter of 2005, indicating a growing optimism among builders that housing will continue to strengthen in the months ahead. At the same time, builders remain sensitive to consumers' ability to buy a new home."
Local 9 out of the 27 associations (33% - down from 44% in April'15) reported building permit gains from the prior month while 15 associations (56% - down from 59% in April'15) experienced gains in housing starts. Sixteen associations (67% - up from 59% last month) experienced an increase from their May 2014 monthly housing starts. The top five YTD markets (with minimum of fifty starts) for housing starts through May by positive percentage change from the same period a year ago: Marshall County (21%), Lee County (27%), Greater Montgomery (21%), Dothan/Wiregrass Area (20%) and Baldwin County (18%),. Here's a look at YTD housing start growth rates from select markets from across the state: Birmingham (-7%), Huntsville (4%), Shoals Area (-4%), Tuscaloosa (-8%), Cullman (-1%) and Mobile (1%). © 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved
NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the reporting municipalities/boards/associations. ACRE does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy.
©ACRE 2015
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
New Construction Report - May 2015 NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT STATISTIC TOTALS Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
May-14
% Difference
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
Alabama State Total South Total*
779
798
-2.4%
744
4.7%
3,669
3,516
4.4%
32,500
34,500
-5.8%
30,400
6.9%
152,600
139,100
9.7%
United States Total*
62,400
64,000
-2.5%
59,500
4.9%
269,800
250,800
7.6%
*Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau
NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS BY AREA Association
Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
May-14
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
% Difference
Athens/Limestone **
15
23
-34.8%
13
15.4%
72
64
12.5%
Baldwin County **
106
114
-7.0%
93
14.0%
553
471
17.4%
Blount County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
0
0
N/A
Chilton County
4
1
300.0%
1
N/A
9
3
200.0%
Cullman County
3
8
-62.5%
1
200.0%
20
21
-4.8%
Dekalb County **
4
1
300.0%
2
100.0%
13
7
85.7%
Enterprise
2
5
-60.0%
4
-50.0%
25
29
-13.8%
122
131
-6.9%
178
-31.5%
639
748
-14.6%
Greater Calhoun County **
1
2
-50.0%
2
-50.0%
14
12
16.7%
Greater Gadsden **
9
6
50.0%
5
80.0%
29
26
11.5%
Greater Montgomery
35
37
-5.4%
34
2.9%
211
177
19.2%
Greater Morgan County **
22
29
-24.1%
21
4.8%
110
115
-4.3%
Dothan & Wiregrass Area
23
14
64.3%
19
21.1%
112
91
23.1%
Greater Birmingham **
Metropolitan Mobile**
44
42
4.8%
48
-8.3%
189
196
-3.6%
Tuscaloosa**
49
78
-37.2%
59
-16.9%
280
297
-5.7%
Huntsville/Madison **
158
171
-7.6%
139
13.7%
687
667
3.0%
1
2
-50.0%
1
0.0%
11
9
22.2% 27.2%
Jackson County ** Lee County
104
73
42.5%
65
60.0%
398
313
Macon County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
1
0
N/A
Marshall County **
43
22
95.5%
5
760.0%
109
44
147.7%
Muscle Shoals **
14
16
-12.5%
17
-17.6%
64
67
-4.5%
Northwest Alabama
2
0
N/A
0
N/A
2
2
N/A
Phenix City
9
11
-18.2%
12
-25.0%
51
76
-32.9%
South Alabama
3
3
0.0%
2
50.0%
10
4
150.0%
St. Clair County **
4
5
-20.0%
21
-81.0%
50
66
-24.2%
Tallapoosa County
1
1
N/A
1
0.0%
4
9
-55.6%
Walker County
1
3
N/A
1
N/A
6
2
200.0%
**Source Partner: www.marketgraphicsalabama.com Process: Every month data is collected from municipalities all around the state, in particular the municipalities’ building/inspections department. We also limited our data collection to municipalities with a population of 2500 or greater. By gathering the number of single family new construction permits that are issued each month it allows observation of growth or decline in the new housing market. *NOTE: Permit counts may be subject to slight change month over month due to updated permit reports from certain municpalities in previous months
©ACRE 2015
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS TOTALS Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
Alabama State Total South Total United States Total
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
May-14
% Difference
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
777
773
0.4%
746
4.0%
3,591
3,374
6.4%
33,700
33,900
-0.6%
31,900
5.6%
149,800
141,600
5.8%
65,000
69,200
-6.1%
59,700
8.9%
271,700
241,353
12.6%
PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS BY LOCAL MARKETS Association
Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
May-14
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
% Difference
Athens/Limestone
18
17
4.0%
15
16.2%
72
65
10.5%
Baldwin County
111
114
-3.2%
100
10.7%
563
476
18.4%
Blount County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
0
0
N/A
Chilton County
2
1
115.6%
1
319.6%
7
3
134.5%
Cullman County
5
6
-14.8%
4
35.8%
20
20
-1.0%
Dekalb County
3
3
9.6%
2
37.5%
11
7
57.0% -14.2%
Enterprise Greater Birmingham Greater Calhoun County
4
6
-30.5%
4
-6.6%
26
31
128
136
-5.9%
162
-21.1%
637
688
-7.3%
2
2
4.1%
3
-21.8%
14
9
53.9%
Greater Gadsden
7
7
10.9%
5
41.8%
25
23
8.6%
Greater Montgomery
39
46
-16.5%
37
5.2%
211
174
21.2%
Greater Morgan County
24
23
7.7%
24
0.0%
109
104
4.3%
Dothan & Wiregrass Area
20
19
5.3%
19
6.1%
106
88
20.7%
Metropolitan Mobile
41
39
4.9%
48
-14.2%
196
193
1.2%
Tuscaloosa
60
68
-10.6%
59
2.0%
270
293
-7.6%
Huntsville/Madison
157
147
7.0%
136
15.8%
651
627
3.9%
Jackson County
2
2
-23.4%
2
12.5%
13
12
8.8%
Lee County
87
76
13.8%
65
34.4%
367
289
26.9%
Macon County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
1
0
N/A
Marshall County
30
19
54.8%
12
154.2%
92
58
60.5%
Muscle Shoals
14
15
-6.6%
14
6.5%
62
64
-3.8%
Northwest Alabama
1
0
N/A
0
633.3%
3
2
10.8%
Phenix City
10
11
-7.2%
16
-36.4%
50
69
-26.3%
South Alabama
3
2
17.8%
1
97.8%
12
4
181.4%
St. Clair County
6
12
-48.7%
16
-61.6%
62
65
-4.7%
Tallapoosa County
1
1
14.5%
3
-66.0%
5
8
-38.9%
Walker County
2
1
22.5%
1
218.9%
5
2
126.9%
*Starts data not available due to that is it a calculated statistic from previous months data that is not available.
Some variance in totals due to decimal extension.
© 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved NOTE : This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the local municipality's building department. Alabama Center for Real Estate - University of Alabama does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy. Defintion: Housing starts are a derived value using a percentage distribution based on the particular region in the United States multiplied times the number of building permits issued in that particular month. Calculation: The distribution for the South Region is as follows: Same Month as Authorization = 44%; 1 Month Prior = 37%; 2 Months Prior = 9%; 3 Months Prior = 3%; 4 Months or more = 7%
©ACRE 2015
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
Metro Market New Construction Report* (The 5 Metro Alabama Markets Represent
+/- 70%
of the State's New Construction Transactions)
Metro Markets Combined
Total New Construction Sold Number of Units on Market Median Selling Price Average Selling Price Average Days on Market
Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
May-14
YTD May-14
333
304
9.5%
310
7.4%
1,688
1,791
-5.8%
1,597
5.7%
2.2%
$
228,927
6.9%
$
242,519
$
241,840
10.6%
$
260,438
168
-35.9%
$
244,742
$
239,426
$
267,362
$
244,992
9.1%
116
-7.3%
108
% Difference
YTD May-15
1,423
1,460
-2.5%
$
230,265
5.3%
$
247,004
N/A
N/A
136
N/A
163
5.4% -16.2%
Total New Construction Sold
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
Last Month
May-15
April-15
132
125
5.6%
124
6.5%
571
554
3.1%
101
100
1.0%
89
13.5%
440
485
-9.3%
29
27
7.4%
32
-9.4%
126
134
-6.0%
54
39
38.5%
46
17.4%
199
206
-3.4%
17
13
30.8%
19
-10.5%
87
81
7.4%
Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
790
803
-1.6%
667
18.4%
6.0
393
457
-14.0%
402
-2.2%
3.9
136
145
-6.2%
150
-9.3%
4.7
218
221
-1.4%
233
-6.4%
4.0
151
165
-8.5%
145
4.1%
8.9
Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
May-14
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
% Difference
Current Month
Number of Units on Market
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
I/S
May-14
Ratio
Median Selling Price
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
May-14
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
% Difference
$
260,650
$
280,900
-7.2%
$
266,750
-2.3%
$
267,923
$
257,403
4.1%
$
241,000
$
242,383
-0.6%
$
240,000
0.4%
$
241,826
$
242,528
-0.3%
$
216,060
$
176,061
22.7%
$
192,250
12.4%
$
216,135
$
184,980
16.8%
$
268,000
$
256,385
4.5%
$
251,736
6.5%
$
253,360
$
244,087
3.8%
$
238,000
$
241,400
-1.4%
$
193,900
22.7%
$
233,350
$
222,324
5.0%
Average Selling Price
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
May-14
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
% Difference
$
293,016
$
322,565
-9.2%
$
299,675
-2.2%
$
305,502
$
285,976
6.8%
$
273,658
$
255,403
7.1%
$
260,861
4.9%
$
262,101
$
256,617
2.1%
$
214,114
$
188,378
13.7%
$
193,825
10.5%
$
220,303
$
202,208
8.9%
$
264,323
$
239,104
10.5%
$
246,592
7.2%
$
257,800
$
245,062
5.2%
$
291,701
$
219,512
32.9%
$
208,245
40.1%
$
256,481
$
245,155
4.6%
Average Days on Market
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Current Month
Last Month
May-15
April-15
Last Year
Unavailable
Unavailable
N/A
Unavailable
52
81
-35.8%
179
121
166
-27.1%
200
141
122
15.6%
131
116
95
22.1%
161
* Source: MLS
©ACRE 2015
% Difference
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
% Difference
YTD
YTD
May-15
May-14
N/A
Unavailable
Unavailable
N/A
-70.9%
81
137
-40.7%
-39.5%
164
218
-25.0%
7.6%
146
143
2.1%
-28.0%
154
153
1.0%
May-14
3,000
450
2,800
400
2,600
350
2,400
300
2,200
250
2,000
200
1,800
150
1,600
100
1,400
50
1,200
0
1,000
Total Sold
Inventory
Sales
Alabama New Construction Statistics 500
Inventory
Alabama New Single Family Building Permits Issued 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
Year-Over-Year Change for Building Permits May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Alabama
©ACRE 2015
U.S.
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May