Market Outlook
2012 Pork Management Conference
Market Outlook
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Paragon Economics, Inc. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Recap of 2012 year-to-date
Lower chicken supplies failed to get price traction until May Lower beef supplies had prices headed to records – then “pink slime” came along The U.S. economy sputters along – not enough job growth and lagging INCOMES Hogs appeared from thin air in April and May – self-inflicted wounds! Exports have been strong but will leave year-on-year slack Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Key issues for ‘12 have not changed much. . .
Feed prices –2012 acreage, moisture situation and yields, SBM costs
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Cost assumptions
Pretty much what Joe Kerns said Corn is strictly a weather situation -
Early planting has reduced risk – early frost Current USDA yield – near $4 – ethanol? 2011 yield – near $6 An $8 disaster is probably not in the cards
Soybeans – fighting for SA acres this fall - Normal yield will still get us $13-$14 beans - SBM: $350-$400 range likely, $425 possible Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Current cost estimates – Mid-$80s for ‘12
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Key issues for ‘12 have not changed much. . .
Feed prices –2012 acreage, moisture situation and yields, SBM costs
Domestic demand – LFTB-BSE, U.S. economy, consumer income levels Exports – World economy, exchange rates, trade policy, disease status Supplies – Inventories, growth rates and production timing, productivity, herd health, weights, potential profits, constraints Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
DEMAND
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Some demand factors are positive (?) - GDP
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
RPI is better but fell slightly in April . . . . . . with Current Situation Index down 1 pt.
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Food spending is rising again
Grocery store sales +2.9%, yr/yr in April Foodservice sales +8.5%, yr/yr in April April combined: +5.6% yr/yr Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Real PDI is still stagnant – and . . . . . . May revisions show that it is WORSE!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Getting some help from gasoline prices . . . . . . +8.6% yr/yr YTD mid-April, since then 9.8%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Domestic meat demand improved in ’11 . . . . . . ‘12 thru April is mixed
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Yr-on-yr monthly indexes are clearer
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
And monthly RPCEs are even clearer
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Record-high retail prices – good but have . . . . . high retail prices strangled movement?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Pork exports: up 23% in ‘11, RECORD LARGE . . . . . . Any growth in 2012 will be a victory
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Pork exports +14%, led by China/HK at +115% . . . Canada +18%, Mexico +18%, Russia +47%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
What will it take to match 2011?
If China/HK averages 74MM lbs. per month (Feb-Apr average) the rest of 2012, they will be +12% vs. 2011 Converse: China/HK can average 62.2MM lbs./month (-26% vs. ’11) and still match 2011 annual total Total must be 93.6% of 2011 for the rest of ‘12 to match 2011 total BUT – hitting 93.6% will add 1.5% to domestic availability! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Dollar keeps gaining vs DX– primarily Euro
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
The peso and won have lost value AGAIN . . . . . . yen and renminbi remain strong
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Competitor currencies have weakened . . . . . . Especially the real – down 34% from July
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Beef exports were RECORD LARGE in 2011 U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Bil. Pounds 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Beef: More markets but slower shipments . . . . . Total -12% thru March – Korea, Mexico
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Broiler exports were RECORD LARGE in ’11 . . . . . . And will remain roughly level thru ‘13 U S BROILER EXPORTS RTC, Annual Bil. Pounds 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Chicken exports are up 13.5% thru March . . . . . . Led by China, Mexico, Russia and CIS
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
CHICKEN
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Brdr flock is up 5% from November but . . . . . . is still 6% smaller than a year ago
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Aggressive cuts have slowed sharply yr/yr . . . DOWN 4.4% YTD 2012
Are -3.7% YTD 2012
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
The reason: PROFITS
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Broiler output is down over 5% YTD vs. ‘11 . . .
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Heavy (8-9 lb.) birds will be more the norm . . . . . . Efficiencies – but more breast meat
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Broiler cutout went above $100 in May . . . . . . traction from cutbacks has been slow
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Bls/Sknls breasts hit $150 in May . . . . . Back to $150 in Aug-Sept, $140-$145 in Q4
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Wings have been the HUGE surprise . . . . . . We expect $180-$190 rest of ‘11
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
CATTLE & BEEF
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Beef and cattle
LFTB main demand hit iis over – lingering demand impact on 50s, down 50% BSE case was a non-event Higher feedlot inventories will continue to provide LOWER steer-heifer numbers Though disappointing in March and April, the Choice cutout is back above $195 Lower supplies through 2014 – will push beef prices up as demand rebounds Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Last summer’s drought is STILL the driver State TX OK KS FL CO AL GA MS NM LA NC SC AZ Total Share
Beef Cows (Thousand) 5025 2036 1478 926 727 659 502 495 488 461 351 184 180 13512 43.8%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
And how were things in late July 2011?? . . .’11 crops were hurt by heat, not dryness!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
May 1 COF was down 1% -- 1st time in 2 yrs. . . . . . How to reconcile with LOWER slaughter?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Str/Hfr slghtr down yr/yr in 40 of last 47 wks. . . .and is down 4.8% YTD – supply, margins
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
BIG placements expected in COF report Pre-Report Estimates -- USDA Cattle On Feed
On Feed, June 1 Placed in May Marketed in May
June 22, 2012 Range of Average of Estimates Estimates (Percent of year ago) 98.8-101.9 100.7 99.4-118.6 114.2 102.7-106.6 105.0
Source: Dow Jones
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
FC supplies on Jan 1 were down 4% from ‘11
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Choice cutout was headed for $200-plus . . . . . . But was “slimed” – again above $195
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
No turn-around in sight for availability. . . . . . Per-cap down 2-3% in ‘12 and 3%+ in ‘13
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Record-high calf prices have barely blinked
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
BIG, BIG incentives to grow the cow herd!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Heifers retained were 1.4% lower than in ‘11
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Pastures are better but not good . . . . . . West, Cornbelt and SE have deteriorated
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Higher cattle/beef will last through 2014!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
HOGS & PORK
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
March H&P report – close to expectations. . . USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report March 30, 2012 Category 2011 2012 Inventories on March 11 All hogs and pigs 63684 64872 Kept for breeding 5788 5820 Kept for market 57896 59052 Under 50 lbs. 18863 19332 50-119 lbs. 16060 16456 120-179 lbs. 12361 12569 180 lbs. and over 10612 10695 Farrowings 2 Dec-Feb sows farrowed 2843 2877 Mar-May Intentions 2917 2890 Jun-Aug Intentions 2927 2880 Dec-Feb Pig Crop1 27866 28681 Dec-Feb pigs saved per litter 9.8 9.97 *Thousand head **Thousand litters
12 as Pct of '11
PreReport
Actual Estimate
101.9 100.6 102.0 102.5 102.5 101.7 100.8
101.7 100.3 101.8 101.5 101.9 101.9 102.1
0.2 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 -0.2 -1.3
101.2 99.1 98.4 102.9 101.7
100.7 100.2 100.3 102.4 101.7
0.5 -1.1 -1.9 0.5 0.0
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Litter size growth 2.0% over past 4 years. . . . . . How high can litter size go?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
YTD slaughter within 0.3% of expected. . . . . . But look at April-May; June-Sept ~+2.5%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Wts. remain high but declining seasonally . . . .‘12 increases: weather, margins, matrixes
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
YTD pork production is +2.2% from 2011 . . . I expect +2.5 to 3.0% rest of ‘12
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Freezer stocks: +7.5% & highest since ‘08 . . . . . .Beef + 17, pork +20, turkey +20, chicken -18
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Cutout value has rebounded . . . . . June-Aug rally is normally $8 -- $98?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
I did not expect $100 hogs by June . . . . . . If back to “normal” seasonal -- $98-$100
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Packer margins have been tight . . . . . . Even versus 5-yr history
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
‘12 profits reached $19/hd in mid-Feb . . . . . . Now at $3.29/hd – ’13 at $2.61/hd
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Expansion? Sow slaughter is down 1.7% YTD
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Price forecasts have been lowered . . . . . . But have they been lowered enough? March 2012 Hogs & Pigs - Price Forecasts Mizzou ISU LMIC Producer-Sold Ia-Mn Wtd. Avg. National Wtd Net Price, All Base Lean Hog 1 Avg. Base Price Methods 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2013 Q1 1
80.54 92.36 95.59 87.39 88.97 86.56 88-92 89-93 81-85 86-89 83-87
78.92 89.37 92.31 85.94 86.64 84.27 89-92 89-92 80-83 86-88 83-86
79.74 89.53 92.25 85.17 86.67 84.36 86-95 91-96 82-88 87-91 84-90
Prior to Q2-11, ISU forecasts were Ia-Mn Live Price converted using a 75% yield
Paragon National Net Neg'd Price, Wtd. Avg. 80.91 94.89 97.61 87.92 90.33 86.11 89-93 90-94 82-86 87-90 83-87
CME CME Lean Hog Futures 6/21/12 81.54** 93.97** 97.49** 88.11** 90.28** 86.44** 85.65** 88.34 80.40 85.21 80.98
**Average of CME Lean Hog Index
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Last Item: Pricing methods
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
OMF price have been winners again this year
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Questions or Comments?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Market Outlook
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Paragon Economics, Inc. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Recap of 2012 year-to-date
Lower chicken supplies failed to get price traction until May Lower beef supplies had prices headed to records – then “pink slime” came along The U.S. economy sputters along – not enough job growth and lagging INCOMES Hogs appeared from thin air in April and May – self-inflicted wounds! Exports have been strong but will leave year-on-year slack Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Key issues for ‘12 have not changed much. . .
Feed prices –2012 acreage, moisture situation and yields, SBM costs
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Cost assumptions
Pretty much what Joe Kerns said Corn is strictly a weather situation -
Early planting has reduced risk – early frost Current USDA yield – near $4 – ethanol? 2011 yield – near $6 An $8 disaster is probably not in the cards
Soybeans – fighting for SA acres this fall - Normal yield will still get us $13-$14 beans - SBM: $350-$400 range likely, $425 possible Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Current cost estimates – Mid-$80s for ‘12
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Key issues for ‘12 have not changed much. . .
Feed prices –2012 acreage, moisture situation and yields, SBM costs
Domestic demand – LFTB-BSE, U.S. economy, consumer income levels Exports – World economy, exchange rates, trade policy, disease status Supplies – Inventories, growth rates and production timing, productivity, herd health, weights, potential profits, constraints Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
DEMAND
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Some demand factors are positive (?) - GDP
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
RPI is better but fell slightly in April . . . . . . with Current Situation Index down 1 pt.
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Food spending is rising again
Grocery store sales +2.9%, yr/yr in April Foodservice sales +8.5%, yr/yr in April April combined: +5.6% yr/yr Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Real PDI is still stagnant – and . . . . . . May revisions show that it is WORSE!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Getting some help from gasoline prices . . . . . . +8.6% yr/yr YTD mid-April, since then 9.8%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Domestic meat demand improved in ’11 . . . . . . ‘12 thru April is mixed
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Yr-on-yr monthly indexes are clearer
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
And monthly RPCEs are even clearer
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Record-high retail prices – good but have . . . . . high retail prices strangled movement?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Pork exports: up 23% in ‘11, RECORD LARGE . . . . . . Any growth in 2012 will be a victory
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Pork exports +14%, led by China/HK at +115% . . . Canada +18%, Mexico +18%, Russia +47%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
What will it take to match 2011?
If China/HK averages 74MM lbs. per month (Feb-Apr average) the rest of 2012, they will be +12% vs. 2011 Converse: China/HK can average 62.2MM lbs./month (-26% vs. ’11) and still match 2011 annual total Total must be 93.6% of 2011 for the rest of ‘12 to match 2011 total BUT – hitting 93.6% will add 1.5% to domestic availability! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Dollar keeps gaining vs DX– primarily Euro
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
The peso and won have lost value AGAIN . . . . . . yen and renminbi remain strong
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Competitor currencies have weakened . . . . . . Especially the real – down 34% from July
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Beef exports were RECORD LARGE in 2011 U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Bil. Pounds 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Beef: More markets but slower shipments . . . . . Total -12% thru March – Korea, Mexico
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Broiler exports were RECORD LARGE in ’11 . . . . . . And will remain roughly level thru ‘13 U S BROILER EXPORTS RTC, Annual Bil. Pounds 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Chicken exports are up 13.5% thru March . . . . . . Led by China, Mexico, Russia and CIS
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
CHICKEN
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Brdr flock is up 5% from November but . . . . . . is still 6% smaller than a year ago
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Aggressive cuts have slowed sharply yr/yr . . . DOWN 4.4% YTD 2012
Are -3.7% YTD 2012
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
The reason: PROFITS
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Broiler output is down over 5% YTD vs. ‘11 . . .
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Heavy (8-9 lb.) birds will be more the norm . . . . . . Efficiencies – but more breast meat
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Broiler cutout went above $100 in May . . . . . . traction from cutbacks has been slow
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Bls/Sknls breasts hit $150 in May . . . . . Back to $150 in Aug-Sept, $140-$145 in Q4
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Wings have been the HUGE surprise . . . . . . We expect $180-$190 rest of ‘11
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
CATTLE & BEEF
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Beef and cattle
LFTB main demand hit iis over – lingering demand impact on 50s, down 50% BSE case was a non-event Higher feedlot inventories will continue to provide LOWER steer-heifer numbers Though disappointing in March and April, the Choice cutout is back above $195 Lower supplies through 2014 – will push beef prices up as demand rebounds Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Last summer’s drought is STILL the driver State TX OK KS FL CO AL GA MS NM LA NC SC AZ Total Share
Beef Cows (Thousand) 5025 2036 1478 926 727 659 502 495 488 461 351 184 180 13512 43.8%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
And how were things in late July 2011?? . . .’11 crops were hurt by heat, not dryness!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
May 1 COF was down 1% -- 1st time in 2 yrs. . . . . . How to reconcile with LOWER slaughter?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Str/Hfr slghtr down yr/yr in 40 of last 47 wks. . . .and is down 4.8% YTD – supply, margins
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
BIG placements expected in COF report Pre-Report Estimates -- USDA Cattle On Feed
On Feed, June 1 Placed in May Marketed in May
June 22, 2012 Range of Average of Estimates Estimates (Percent of year ago) 98.8-101.9 100.7 99.4-118.6 114.2 102.7-106.6 105.0
Source: Dow Jones
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
FC supplies on Jan 1 were down 4% from ‘11
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Choice cutout was headed for $200-plus . . . . . . But was “slimed” – again above $195
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
No turn-around in sight for availability. . . . . . Per-cap down 2-3% in ‘12 and 3%+ in ‘13
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Record-high calf prices have barely blinked
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
BIG, BIG incentives to grow the cow herd!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Heifers retained were 1.4% lower than in ‘11
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Pastures are better but not good . . . . . . West, Cornbelt and SE have deteriorated
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Higher cattle/beef will last through 2014!
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
HOGS & PORK
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
March H&P report – close to expectations. . . USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report March 30, 2012 Category 2011 2012 Inventories on March 11 All hogs and pigs 63684 64872 Kept for breeding 5788 5820 Kept for market 57896 59052 Under 50 lbs. 18863 19332 50-119 lbs. 16060 16456 120-179 lbs. 12361 12569 180 lbs. and over 10612 10695 Farrowings 2 Dec-Feb sows farrowed 2843 2877 Mar-May Intentions 2917 2890 Jun-Aug Intentions 2927 2880 Dec-Feb Pig Crop1 27866 28681 Dec-Feb pigs saved per litter 9.8 9.97 *Thousand head **Thousand litters
12 as Pct of '11
PreReport
Actual Estimate
101.9 100.6 102.0 102.5 102.5 101.7 100.8
101.7 100.3 101.8 101.5 101.9 101.9 102.1
0.2 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 -0.2 -1.3
101.2 99.1 98.4 102.9 101.7
100.7 100.2 100.3 102.4 101.7
0.5 -1.1 -1.9 0.5 0.0
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Litter size growth 2.0% over past 4 years. . . . . . How high can litter size go?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
YTD slaughter within 0.3% of expected. . . . . . But look at April-May; June-Sept ~+2.5%
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Wts. remain high but declining seasonally . . . .‘12 increases: weather, margins, matrixes
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
YTD pork production is +2.2% from 2011 . . . I expect +2.5 to 3.0% rest of ‘12
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Freezer stocks: +7.5% & highest since ‘08 . . . . . .Beef + 17, pork +20, turkey +20, chicken -18
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Cutout value has rebounded . . . . . June-Aug rally is normally $8 -- $98?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
I did not expect $100 hogs by June . . . . . . If back to “normal” seasonal -- $98-$100
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Packer margins have been tight . . . . . . Even versus 5-yr history
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
‘12 profits reached $19/hd in mid-Feb . . . . . . Now at $3.29/hd – ’13 at $2.61/hd
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Expansion? Sow slaughter is down 1.7% YTD
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Price forecasts have been lowered . . . . . . But have they been lowered enough? March 2012 Hogs & Pigs - Price Forecasts Mizzou ISU LMIC Producer-Sold Ia-Mn Wtd. Avg. National Wtd Net Price, All Base Lean Hog 1 Avg. Base Price Methods 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2013 Q1 1
80.54 92.36 95.59 87.39 88.97 86.56 88-92 89-93 81-85 86-89 83-87
78.92 89.37 92.31 85.94 86.64 84.27 89-92 89-92 80-83 86-88 83-86
79.74 89.53 92.25 85.17 86.67 84.36 86-95 91-96 82-88 87-91 84-90
Prior to Q2-11, ISU forecasts were Ia-Mn Live Price converted using a 75% yield
Paragon National Net Neg'd Price, Wtd. Avg. 80.91 94.89 97.61 87.92 90.33 86.11 89-93 90-94 82-86 87-90 83-87
CME CME Lean Hog Futures 6/21/12 81.54** 93.97** 97.49** 88.11** 90.28** 86.44** 85.65** 88.34 80.40 85.21 80.98
**Average of CME Lean Hog Index
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Last Item: Pricing methods
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
OMF price have been winners again this year
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
Questions or Comments?
Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
