MINT
Minor International
Sell (17E TP Bt39.25)
Company Update
Close Bt39.75
Food & Beverage August 25, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Still not the right time to invest Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.336
1.519
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
25%
‐12.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MINT.BK/MINT TB
Paid-up Shares (m)
4,407.54
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
175.00/5,061.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/41.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
43.25/24.10
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
8,679.00 7.51
Estimated free float (%)
50.79
Beta
1.03
URL
www.minorinternational.com
CGR Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6236
Earnings cut and TP rolled over…maintain Sell In MINT’s analyst meeting, the management gave a bright business outlook as they expect to revamp the hotel and restaurant business in some countries. Even though the management is focusing on both organic and inorganic growth, we think the earnings catalyst over the next year will come from M&A. While we maintain our revenue and EBITDA forecasts, we revise down the share of profit from associates and JV since the results for 1H16 largely fell short of our estimates. Consequently, the core net profit forecasts are 8.6% lower in 16E and 13.7% lower in 17E. We roll over the TP to 17E at Bt39.25, which provides no upside to the current share price. Maintain our Sell recommendation. International hotels will show a better performance in 2H16 While hotels in Thailand still performed well in 1H16, international hotels have been sluggish due to 1) high competition in the Maldives; 2) hotel renovations and the weak currency in Brazil; 3) the low seasonal in Portugal; and 4) the slowdown in African hotels. We expect overall RevPAR to drop by 17% in 16E due mainly to the consolidation of Tivoli, although this will be offset by a 32% increase in the number of rooms. We forecast the hotel top line to grow 17% in 16E and 2% in 17E as no new hotels will be added in 17E. We expect the gross margin to drop from 52% in 15E to 49% in 16E and 17E. Restaurants in Australia and Singapore remain a problem Thailand and China showed impressive SSSG at 6.1% and 6.9% while Australia and Singapore were still negative at 7.4% and 2%. MINT is tackling the problem by changing the management team and is still positive on the outlook. We maintain our SSSG assumptions at 1.2% in 16E and 2.0% in 17E on the good performance in Thailand and China. We forecast the top line to grow 34% due mainly to consolidation of Minor DKL; meanwhile, the gross margin should remain relatively stable at 68.5% in 16E compared to 68.6% in 15E. Downward revision of profit sharing from associates and JV We revise down the share of profit from associates and JV by 26% in 16E and 42% in 17E. The share of profit for 1H16 was only 16% of our previous forecast. Our revised number is still only 22% of the new forecast but it will be boosted by sales of real estate in Chiang Mai that will be booked in Q3. Roll over TP and maintain Sell We roll over the TP to 17E at Bt39.25, providing no upside from the closing share price. Even though we think MINT has very strong fundamentals and there are plenty of opportunities for the company to expand abroad from M&A, this might not be the right time to take an increasing stock position. Our Sell rating stands. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Norm net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Norm EPS (Bt) Norm EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 34,669 3,795 1.04 11.4% 0.97 8.4% 0.35 6.27 2013 42.92 30.34 6.62 0.8% 17.2% 74%
2014 37,228 4,250 1.00 ‐4.3% 0.97 ‐0.1% 0.25 6.37 2014 42.99 28.78 6.51 0.6% 15.8% 96%
2015 42,432 4,705 1.60 59.9% 1.07 10.7% 0.35 7.45 2015 38.83 27.31 5.57 0.8% 23.1% 115%
2016E 52,145 5,433 1.67 4.6% 1.23 15.5% 0.45 8.77 2016E 33.63 21.00 4.73 1.1% 20.6% 96%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2017E 54,840 5,854 1.33 ‐20.5% 1.33 7.8% 0.53 9.65 2017E 31.21 19.55 4.30 1.3% 14.4% 75%
2018E 60,347 6,564 1.49 12.1% 1.49 12.1% 0.60 10.61 2018E 27.83 18.34 3.91 1.4% 14.7% 56%
International hotels will show a better performance in 2H16 We have no concern about the hotel operation in Thailand. Tourist arrivals keep growing while the high season in Q4 is approaching. The only noise is the newly‐opened AVANI Riverside that will drag down the performance of Bangkok hotels. Nevertheless, this will provide growth next year. Outside Thailand, the Maldives market has high competition as many new hotels have opened and room rates are down. However, MINT has chosen to maintain its rates. The performance of Tivoli in Portugal was still weak in 2Q16 but it will show a better performance in 2H16 as it is entering the high season in Q3. Two hotels in Brazil were under renovation while the real has weakened against the Thai baht. Hotels in Africa have been soft so far but there is a good sign as the RevPAR growth of AVANI Windhoek in Namibia is turning positive. We expect the RevPAR of MINT’s owned hotels to drop 17% in 16E led by international hotels, but this will be offset by a 32% increase in the number of rooms. Solid RevPAR growth should be seen from 18E onward as MINT is planning to renovate three Tivoli hotels in Portugal and it already renovated two in Brazil, which should be positive to room rates. We forecast hotel revenue to grow 17% in 16E and 2% in 17% while we expect the gross margin to drop from 52% to 49% in both 16E and 17E.
Figure 1: Hotel operation
80% 60%
(Bt)
Occupancy rate
100%
58%
66%
68%
59%
67%
65%
64%
68%
0%
7,000 6,000
6,385
7,028
6,583 5,491
5,601
5,778
4,000
2012
(Rooms) 8,000
3,000
Dragged down by occupancy rate in BKK due to political crisis
Effect from flood in Thailand 2011
2013
2014
2015
2,000 1,000
2016E 2017E 2018E
Hotel rooms 7,092
7,000
7,092
7,522
0 2011 (Bt) 8,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
2,335
2,676
2013
2014
2015
2016E 2017E 2018E
RevPAR
7,000
5,000 2,554
2012
6,000
5,387
6,000
3,000
5,377
6,035
5,000
40% 20%
Average room rate
8,000
3,112
3,977
4,372
4,168
4,393
2014
2015
3,641
3,133
3,590
3,901
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000 0
0 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E 2017E 2018E
2011
2012
2013
2016E 2017E 2018E
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research
Restaurants in Australia and Singapore remain a problem Overall SSSG was 2.3%. Thailand and China showed impressive SSSG at 6.1% and 6.9% while Australia and Singapore were still negative at 7.4% and 2%. Coffee Club in Queensland was negatively affected by the slowdown in the mining industry while SSSG in other cities already turned positive in July. Singapore has been very soft due to the economic slowdown. MINT has tackled the problem by appointing a veteran management team from Thailand. We maintain our SSSG assumptions at 1.2% in 16E and 2.0% in 17E on the good performance in Thailand and China. We forecast the top line to grow 34% due mainly to the consolidation of Minor DKL and 9% in 17E from organic expansion; we assume a stable gross margin at 68.5% in 16E onwards. REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 2: Restaurant operation 10.0%
10.0%
SSSG by country
CH TH
5.0%
0.0%
0.0% AU -5.0% SG
-1.8%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
(Outlets)
Total SSSG
2,000 5.50%
3.70%
1,500
1.50% 2.00% 1.20% 0.40%-0.20%
0.9%
2.3%
1,112 1,148
1,257
1,381
1,708
1,544
1,851
2,001
2,151
1,000 500
-2.70%
0 2009
2010
-0.2% 0.3%
Outlets
2,500
9.00%
-1.6%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2009
1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6%
-5.0%
-10.0%
15.00% 13.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 1.00% -1.00% -3.00% -5.00%
Total SSSG
5.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2010
2011
2015 2016E 2017E
2012
Owned
2013
2014
2015 2016E 2017E
Franchise
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research
Figure 3: Financial forecasts (Bt'bn)
Revenue forecast
70.0 60.0
52.1
50.0 40.0
31.3
34.7
37.2
14.3
15.9
30.0 20.0 10.0
Gross margin
12.3
54.8
60.3
42.4 27.8
23.4
25.7
25.7
29.0
2017E
2018E
17.5
15.7
16.8
17.8
21.6
25.3
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
0.0
Hotel & mixed use
Food
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
68.3%
68.8%
69.0%
68.6%
68.5%
68.5%
68.5%
50.5%
52.8%
53.6%
52.3%
49.2%
49.2%
49.2%
35.9%
39.6%
39.9%
39.6%
39.5%
39.5%
39.5%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Retail
Hotel & mixed use
Food
Retail
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research Figure 4: Earnings revision Ended Dec Revenue (Bt'mn) EBITDA (Bt'mn) Share of profit (Bt'mn) Net profit (Bt'mn) % growth Core profit (Bt'mn) % growth Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%)
Previous 51,845 8,352 1,303 7,875 12% 5,943 26% 1.35 26% 15.5% 58.5%
2016 New %chg Previous 52,145 0.6% 54,718 8,357 0.1% 8,943 962 ‐26.2% 1,644 7,365 ‐6.5% 6,780 5% ‐7.2% ‐14% 5,433 ‐8.6% 6,780 15% ‐10.8% 14% 1.23 ‐8.6% 1.54 15% ‐10.8% 14% 15.5% 0.0% 7.8% 58.5% 0.0% 58.9%
2017 New 54,840 9,045 960 5,854 ‐21% 5,854 8% 1.33 8% 7.8% 58.9%
%chg Previous 0.2% 60,219 1.1% 9,485 ‐41.6% 2,043 ‐13.7% 7,939 ‐6.6% 17% ‐13.7% 7,939 ‐6.3% 17% ‐13.7% 1.80 ‐6.3% 17% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 58.8%
2018 New 60,347 9,587 932 6,564 12% 6,564 12% 1.49 12% 12.1% 58.8%
%chg 0.2% 1.1% ‐54.4% ‐17.3% ‐5.0% ‐17.3% ‐5.0% ‐17.3% ‐5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra items Non‐controlling interest Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 34,669 (14,549) 20,120 (16,504) 6,115 (2,498) 3,616 (1,027) 1,431 4,020 (675) 530 306 (80) 4,101 1.04 1.04 3,795 0.97 0.35
2014 37,228 (15,321) 21,907 (18,422) 6,372 (2,887) 3,485 (1,145) 1,584 3,924 (397) 823 152 (100) 4,402 1.00 1.00 4,250 0.97 0.25
2015 42,432 (17,829) 24,603 (21,473) 6,254 (3,124) 3,129 (1,301) 2,128 3,957 (411) 1,254 2,335 (94) 7,040 1.60 1.60 4,705 1.07 0.35
2016E 52,145 (21,616) 30,529 (26,386) 8,357 (4,214) 4,143 (1,467) 2,548 5,224 (542) 962 1,932 (210) 7,365 1.67 1.67 5,433 1.23 0.45
2013 3,370 3,383 1,675 5,959 37,452 8,284 60,124 4,782 18,602 33,249 4,018 26,875 60,124
2014 5,372 3,326 1,942 8,123 39,814 15,703 74,279 6,620 27,461 44,255 4,202 30,024 74,279
2015 4,003 4,960 2,414 10,162 53,002 21,196 95,737 4,101 41,373 59,822 4,642 35,915 95,737
2016E 3,809 6,096 2,966 10,895 56,221 22,418 102,405 9,377 34,850 60,456 4,642 41,950 102,405
2013 4,182 (688) 2,498 (270) 5,722 (7,416) (80) (7,496) (1,000) 3,602 (1,185) 28 1,445 (329) (1,774) (0.44)
2014 4,502 (1,308) 2,887 (693) 5,388 (13,798) 386 (13,412) 11,400 1 (1,401) 26 10,027 2,003 (8,024) (2.01)
2015 7,134 (3,353) 3,124 (3,659) 3,247 (12,821) (1,105) (13,926) 10,147 22 (1,001) 125 9,294 (1,386) (10,679) (2.43)
2016E 7,575 (2,838) 4,214 (1,030) 7,921 (6,000) 673 (5,327) (1,246) 0 (1,541) 0 (2,787) (193) 2,593 0.59
2013 10.7% 12.3% 8.4% 58.0% 17.6% 10.4% 11.8% 10.9% 15.6%
2014 7.4% 4.2% ‐0.1% 58.8% 17.1% 9.4% 11.8% 11.4% 10.1%
2015 14.0% ‐1.9% 10.7% 58.0% 14.7% 7.4% 16.6% 11.1% 10.4%
2016E 22.9% 33.6% 15.5% 58.5% 16.0% 7.9% 14.1% 10.4% 10.4%
2017E 54,840 (22,520) 32,320 (27,777) 9,045 (4,502) 4,543 (1,489) 2,664 5,718 (594) 960 0 (230) 5,854 1.33 1.33 5,854 1.33 0.53
2017E 4,262 6,411 3,119 12,377 52,718 22,815 101,702 7,787 31,072 55,649 4,642 46,053 101,702
2018E 60,347 (24,868) 35,479 (30,395) 9,587 (4,502) 5,085 (1,399) 2,894 6,580 (683) 932 0 (265) 6,564 1.49 1.49 6,564 1.49 0.60 2018E 6,357 7,054 3,433 13,831 49,236 23,223 103,135 12,013 22,567 52,595 4,642 50,540 103,135
2017E 6,084 (960) 4,502 (302) 9,324 (2,000) 478 (1,522) (5,369) 0 (1,981) 0 (7,350) 452 7,803 1.77
2018E 6,829 (932) 4,502 (141) 10,258 (2,020) 477 (1,543) (4,278) 0 (2,342) 0 (6,620) 2,095 8,715 1.98
2017E 5.2% 8.2% 7.8% 58.9% 16.5% 8.3% 10.7% 10.7% 10.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
2018E 10.0% 6.0% 12.1% 58.8% 15.9% 8.4% 10.9% 10.9% 10.4%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI, EARTH. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH, BCPG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Sell (17E TP Bt39.25)
Company Update
Close Bt39.75
Food & Beverage August 25, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Still not the right time to invest Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.336
1.519
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
25%
‐12.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MINT.BK/MINT TB
Paid-up Shares (m)
4,407.54
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
175.00/5,061.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/41.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
43.25/24.10
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
8,679.00 7.51
Estimated free float (%)
50.79
Beta
1.03
URL
www.minorinternational.com
CGR Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6236
Earnings cut and TP rolled over…maintain Sell In MINT’s analyst meeting, the management gave a bright business outlook as they expect to revamp the hotel and restaurant business in some countries. Even though the management is focusing on both organic and inorganic growth, we think the earnings catalyst over the next year will come from M&A. While we maintain our revenue and EBITDA forecasts, we revise down the share of profit from associates and JV since the results for 1H16 largely fell short of our estimates. Consequently, the core net profit forecasts are 8.6% lower in 16E and 13.7% lower in 17E. We roll over the TP to 17E at Bt39.25, which provides no upside to the current share price. Maintain our Sell recommendation. International hotels will show a better performance in 2H16 While hotels in Thailand still performed well in 1H16, international hotels have been sluggish due to 1) high competition in the Maldives; 2) hotel renovations and the weak currency in Brazil; 3) the low seasonal in Portugal; and 4) the slowdown in African hotels. We expect overall RevPAR to drop by 17% in 16E due mainly to the consolidation of Tivoli, although this will be offset by a 32% increase in the number of rooms. We forecast the hotel top line to grow 17% in 16E and 2% in 17E as no new hotels will be added in 17E. We expect the gross margin to drop from 52% in 15E to 49% in 16E and 17E. Restaurants in Australia and Singapore remain a problem Thailand and China showed impressive SSSG at 6.1% and 6.9% while Australia and Singapore were still negative at 7.4% and 2%. MINT is tackling the problem by changing the management team and is still positive on the outlook. We maintain our SSSG assumptions at 1.2% in 16E and 2.0% in 17E on the good performance in Thailand and China. We forecast the top line to grow 34% due mainly to consolidation of Minor DKL; meanwhile, the gross margin should remain relatively stable at 68.5% in 16E compared to 68.6% in 15E. Downward revision of profit sharing from associates and JV We revise down the share of profit from associates and JV by 26% in 16E and 42% in 17E. The share of profit for 1H16 was only 16% of our previous forecast. Our revised number is still only 22% of the new forecast but it will be boosted by sales of real estate in Chiang Mai that will be booked in Q3. Roll over TP and maintain Sell We roll over the TP to 17E at Bt39.25, providing no upside from the closing share price. Even though we think MINT has very strong fundamentals and there are plenty of opportunities for the company to expand abroad from M&A, this might not be the right time to take an increasing stock position. Our Sell rating stands. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Norm net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Norm EPS (Bt) Norm EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 34,669 3,795 1.04 11.4% 0.97 8.4% 0.35 6.27 2013 42.92 30.34 6.62 0.8% 17.2% 74%
2014 37,228 4,250 1.00 ‐4.3% 0.97 ‐0.1% 0.25 6.37 2014 42.99 28.78 6.51 0.6% 15.8% 96%
2015 42,432 4,705 1.60 59.9% 1.07 10.7% 0.35 7.45 2015 38.83 27.31 5.57 0.8% 23.1% 115%
2016E 52,145 5,433 1.67 4.6% 1.23 15.5% 0.45 8.77 2016E 33.63 21.00 4.73 1.1% 20.6% 96%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2017E 54,840 5,854 1.33 ‐20.5% 1.33 7.8% 0.53 9.65 2017E 31.21 19.55 4.30 1.3% 14.4% 75%
2018E 60,347 6,564 1.49 12.1% 1.49 12.1% 0.60 10.61 2018E 27.83 18.34 3.91 1.4% 14.7% 56%
International hotels will show a better performance in 2H16 We have no concern about the hotel operation in Thailand. Tourist arrivals keep growing while the high season in Q4 is approaching. The only noise is the newly‐opened AVANI Riverside that will drag down the performance of Bangkok hotels. Nevertheless, this will provide growth next year. Outside Thailand, the Maldives market has high competition as many new hotels have opened and room rates are down. However, MINT has chosen to maintain its rates. The performance of Tivoli in Portugal was still weak in 2Q16 but it will show a better performance in 2H16 as it is entering the high season in Q3. Two hotels in Brazil were under renovation while the real has weakened against the Thai baht. Hotels in Africa have been soft so far but there is a good sign as the RevPAR growth of AVANI Windhoek in Namibia is turning positive. We expect the RevPAR of MINT’s owned hotels to drop 17% in 16E led by international hotels, but this will be offset by a 32% increase in the number of rooms. Solid RevPAR growth should be seen from 18E onward as MINT is planning to renovate three Tivoli hotels in Portugal and it already renovated two in Brazil, which should be positive to room rates. We forecast hotel revenue to grow 17% in 16E and 2% in 17% while we expect the gross margin to drop from 52% to 49% in both 16E and 17E.
Figure 1: Hotel operation
80% 60%
(Bt)
Occupancy rate
100%
58%
66%
68%
59%
67%
65%
64%
68%
0%
7,000 6,000
6,385
7,028
6,583 5,491
5,601
5,778
4,000
2012
(Rooms) 8,000
3,000
Dragged down by occupancy rate in BKK due to political crisis
Effect from flood in Thailand 2011
2013
2014
2015
2,000 1,000
2016E 2017E 2018E
Hotel rooms 7,092
7,000
7,092
7,522
0 2011 (Bt) 8,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
2,335
2,676
2013
2014
2015
2016E 2017E 2018E
RevPAR
7,000
5,000 2,554
2012
6,000
5,387
6,000
3,000
5,377
6,035
5,000
40% 20%
Average room rate
8,000
3,112
3,977
4,372
4,168
4,393
2014
2015
3,641
3,133
3,590
3,901
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000 0
0 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E 2017E 2018E
2011
2012
2013
2016E 2017E 2018E
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research
Restaurants in Australia and Singapore remain a problem Overall SSSG was 2.3%. Thailand and China showed impressive SSSG at 6.1% and 6.9% while Australia and Singapore were still negative at 7.4% and 2%. Coffee Club in Queensland was negatively affected by the slowdown in the mining industry while SSSG in other cities already turned positive in July. Singapore has been very soft due to the economic slowdown. MINT has tackled the problem by appointing a veteran management team from Thailand. We maintain our SSSG assumptions at 1.2% in 16E and 2.0% in 17E on the good performance in Thailand and China. We forecast the top line to grow 34% due mainly to the consolidation of Minor DKL and 9% in 17E from organic expansion; we assume a stable gross margin at 68.5% in 16E onwards. REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
Figure 2: Restaurant operation 10.0%
10.0%
SSSG by country
CH TH
5.0%
0.0%
0.0% AU -5.0% SG
-1.8%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
(Outlets)
Total SSSG
2,000 5.50%
3.70%
1,500
1.50% 2.00% 1.20% 0.40%-0.20%
0.9%
2.3%
1,112 1,148
1,257
1,381
1,708
1,544
1,851
2,001
2,151
1,000 500
-2.70%
0 2009
2010
-0.2% 0.3%
Outlets
2,500
9.00%
-1.6%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
2009
1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6%
-5.0%
-10.0%
15.00% 13.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 1.00% -1.00% -3.00% -5.00%
Total SSSG
5.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2010
2011
2015 2016E 2017E
2012
Owned
2013
2014
2015 2016E 2017E
Franchise
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research
Figure 3: Financial forecasts (Bt'bn)
Revenue forecast
70.0 60.0
52.1
50.0 40.0
31.3
34.7
37.2
14.3
15.9
30.0 20.0 10.0
Gross margin
12.3
54.8
60.3
42.4 27.8
23.4
25.7
25.7
29.0
2017E
2018E
17.5
15.7
16.8
17.8
21.6
25.3
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
0.0
Hotel & mixed use
Food
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
68.3%
68.8%
69.0%
68.6%
68.5%
68.5%
68.5%
50.5%
52.8%
53.6%
52.3%
49.2%
49.2%
49.2%
35.9%
39.6%
39.9%
39.6%
39.5%
39.5%
39.5%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Retail
Hotel & mixed use
Food
Retail
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research Figure 4: Earnings revision Ended Dec Revenue (Bt'mn) EBITDA (Bt'mn) Share of profit (Bt'mn) Net profit (Bt'mn) % growth Core profit (Bt'mn) % growth Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%)
Previous 51,845 8,352 1,303 7,875 12% 5,943 26% 1.35 26% 15.5% 58.5%
2016 New %chg Previous 52,145 0.6% 54,718 8,357 0.1% 8,943 962 ‐26.2% 1,644 7,365 ‐6.5% 6,780 5% ‐7.2% ‐14% 5,433 ‐8.6% 6,780 15% ‐10.8% 14% 1.23 ‐8.6% 1.54 15% ‐10.8% 14% 15.5% 0.0% 7.8% 58.5% 0.0% 58.9%
2017 New 54,840 9,045 960 5,854 ‐21% 5,854 8% 1.33 8% 7.8% 58.9%
%chg Previous 0.2% 60,219 1.1% 9,485 ‐41.6% 2,043 ‐13.7% 7,939 ‐6.6% 17% ‐13.7% 7,939 ‐6.3% 17% ‐13.7% 1.80 ‐6.3% 17% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 58.8%
2018 New 60,347 9,587 932 6,564 12% 6,564 12% 1.49 12% 12.1% 58.8%
%chg 0.2% 1.1% ‐54.4% ‐17.3% ‐5.0% ‐17.3% ‐5.0% ‐17.3% ‐5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: MINT, KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra items Non‐controlling interest Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 34,669 (14,549) 20,120 (16,504) 6,115 (2,498) 3,616 (1,027) 1,431 4,020 (675) 530 306 (80) 4,101 1.04 1.04 3,795 0.97 0.35
2014 37,228 (15,321) 21,907 (18,422) 6,372 (2,887) 3,485 (1,145) 1,584 3,924 (397) 823 152 (100) 4,402 1.00 1.00 4,250 0.97 0.25
2015 42,432 (17,829) 24,603 (21,473) 6,254 (3,124) 3,129 (1,301) 2,128 3,957 (411) 1,254 2,335 (94) 7,040 1.60 1.60 4,705 1.07 0.35
2016E 52,145 (21,616) 30,529 (26,386) 8,357 (4,214) 4,143 (1,467) 2,548 5,224 (542) 962 1,932 (210) 7,365 1.67 1.67 5,433 1.23 0.45
2013 3,370 3,383 1,675 5,959 37,452 8,284 60,124 4,782 18,602 33,249 4,018 26,875 60,124
2014 5,372 3,326 1,942 8,123 39,814 15,703 74,279 6,620 27,461 44,255 4,202 30,024 74,279
2015 4,003 4,960 2,414 10,162 53,002 21,196 95,737 4,101 41,373 59,822 4,642 35,915 95,737
2016E 3,809 6,096 2,966 10,895 56,221 22,418 102,405 9,377 34,850 60,456 4,642 41,950 102,405
2013 4,182 (688) 2,498 (270) 5,722 (7,416) (80) (7,496) (1,000) 3,602 (1,185) 28 1,445 (329) (1,774) (0.44)
2014 4,502 (1,308) 2,887 (693) 5,388 (13,798) 386 (13,412) 11,400 1 (1,401) 26 10,027 2,003 (8,024) (2.01)
2015 7,134 (3,353) 3,124 (3,659) 3,247 (12,821) (1,105) (13,926) 10,147 22 (1,001) 125 9,294 (1,386) (10,679) (2.43)
2016E 7,575 (2,838) 4,214 (1,030) 7,921 (6,000) 673 (5,327) (1,246) 0 (1,541) 0 (2,787) (193) 2,593 0.59
2013 10.7% 12.3% 8.4% 58.0% 17.6% 10.4% 11.8% 10.9% 15.6%
2014 7.4% 4.2% ‐0.1% 58.8% 17.1% 9.4% 11.8% 11.4% 10.1%
2015 14.0% ‐1.9% 10.7% 58.0% 14.7% 7.4% 16.6% 11.1% 10.4%
2016E 22.9% 33.6% 15.5% 58.5% 16.0% 7.9% 14.1% 10.4% 10.4%
2017E 54,840 (22,520) 32,320 (27,777) 9,045 (4,502) 4,543 (1,489) 2,664 5,718 (594) 960 0 (230) 5,854 1.33 1.33 5,854 1.33 0.53
2017E 4,262 6,411 3,119 12,377 52,718 22,815 101,702 7,787 31,072 55,649 4,642 46,053 101,702
2018E 60,347 (24,868) 35,479 (30,395) 9,587 (4,502) 5,085 (1,399) 2,894 6,580 (683) 932 0 (265) 6,564 1.49 1.49 6,564 1.49 0.60 2018E 6,357 7,054 3,433 13,831 49,236 23,223 103,135 12,013 22,567 52,595 4,642 50,540 103,135
2017E 6,084 (960) 4,502 (302) 9,324 (2,000) 478 (1,522) (5,369) 0 (1,981) 0 (7,350) 452 7,803 1.77
2018E 6,829 (932) 4,502 (141) 10,258 (2,020) 477 (1,543) (4,278) 0 (2,342) 0 (6,620) 2,095 8,715 1.98
2017E 5.2% 8.2% 7.8% 58.9% 16.5% 8.3% 10.7% 10.7% 10.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
2018E 10.0% 6.0% 12.1% 58.8% 15.9% 8.4% 10.9% 10.9% 10.4%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI, EARTH. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH, BCPG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
