Monkfish Assessment Update 2016
Monkfish Assessment Update 2016 NEFMC SSC August 10, 2016
Monkfish • Distributed NC-Canada • Two management areas
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
Biological Uncertainties • Stock structure • mtDNA studies: no stock delineation • Microsatellites: possible delineation in Mid-Atlantic
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
Biological Uncertainties • Growth • 2016: aging method invalidated • Incorrect # rings counted at margin in >half of fish • Long-standing questions about early growth
• Growth model incorrect • Model not updated
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
2016 Monkfish Update Terms of Reference • • • • •
TOR 1: Update catch statistics TOR 2: Update fishery-independent indices TOR 3: Review evidence for biological changes TOR 4: Compare annual ACLs with catches TOR 5: Analysis to support SSC decisions
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5
TOR 1. Update catch estimates, including landings, discard, size composition of catch
• Landings
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
TOR 1. Catch statistics – Gear type • North landings – trawls
South landings – gillnets
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
TOR 1. Catch statistics – Gear type • Overall - trawl and gillnet landings equivalent
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
TOR 1. Catch statistics - Discards
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
TOR 1. Catch statistics • North (2013-2015) 14%
South (2013-2015) 25%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
TOR 1. Catch length composition - North North - Kept Note: x and y axis scales vary
North - Discarded
Dredge
Gillnet
Trawl
2012
Kept
Discarded 2013
2014
2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
TOR 1. Catch length composition - South South - Kept Note: x and y axis scales vary
South - Discarded
Dredge
Gillnet
Trawl
2012
Discarded
Kept 2013
2014
2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
TOR 2. Fishery-independent indices • Update fishery-independent indices, including recruitment indices and length composition of survey catches
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13
TOR 2. Survey indices - North • Bigelow time series Biomass
Abundance Abundance
Biomass NEFSC Fall Abundance Index (#/tow)
10 8 6 4 2 0 2009
2010
12
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
Spring
12
2011
2012
2013
2014
8 6 4 2
2010
2011
2012
8 6 4 2
2010
6
NEFSC Spring
10
0 2009
NEFSC Fall
10
0 2009
2015
Abundance Index (#/tow)
Fall
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
12
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
NEFSC Spring
5 4 3 2 1 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
TOR 2. Survey indices - North • All surveys
Abundance
Biomass
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
TOR 2. Survey indices - South • Bigelow time series South
Biomass
Abundance
Biomass
Abundance
NEFSC Fall
5 4 3 2 1 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3
2
1
2010
2011
2012
20 15 10 5
2010
3
NEFSC Spring
4
0 2009
NEFSC Fall
25
0 2009
2015
Abundance Index (#/tow)
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
5
Spring
30
Abundance Index (#/tow)
Fall
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
6
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
NEFSC Spring
3 2 2 1 1 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
TOR 2. Survey indices - South • All surveys
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
TOR 2. Surveys – 2015 recruitment event • South 2015 April 2 June 10
Sept 20
NEFSC Spring
NEFSC Scallop
VIMS scallop dredge survey 2015
NEFSC Fall
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18
TOR 2. Surveys – 2015 recruitment event • South NEFSC Surveys
Spring 2015
Fall 2016
Spring 2016
May 2, 2016
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 1
TOR 2. Survey indices – recruitment event North 2015
NEFSC Spring
April 24 Aug 1
Summer Shrimp
May 26, 2016
Oct 20
NEFSC Fall
NEFSC Spring
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Pag
TOR 2. Survey indices - Recruitment • Recruitment indices North
South
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21
TOR 2. Survey indices – NEFSC Spring • Spring 2016
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22
TOR 3. Review evidence for biological changes • Distribution changes • Movies • Temperature • Depth • Condition factors
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23
TOR 4: Compare ACLs with catches - North • ACL vs. annual catch
• TAL vs. FY landings Percent of TAL
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24
TOR 4: Compare ACLs with catches - South
• ACL vs. annual catch
• TAL vs. FY landings Percent of TAL
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25
TOR 5. Provide analysis to support SSC • Relative exploitation indices (catch/abundance index) North
South
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC • Relative exploitation indices (ldgs/43+ index) NEFSC fall survey Biomass-based
Abundance-based
(swept area abundance)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC • Method for OFL adjustment (GB cod) • Use trend in recent survey indices to adjust previous catch advice
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC • Method • Average NEFSC fall and spring surveys, exploitable size (43+ cm) • Smooth indices (Loess, α=0.25) • Regression over last 3 years used to estimate percent change (slope) • Apply percent change to derive new catch advice
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC Spring and Fall Exploitable Biomass Indices
North
South
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 30
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC Loess-smoothed spring-fall average 43+ indices
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC Trends
North: 2% increase South: 13% decrease
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 32
Monkfish • Distributed NC-Canada • Two management areas
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
Biological Uncertainties • Stock structure • mtDNA studies: no stock delineation • Microsatellites: possible delineation in Mid-Atlantic
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
Biological Uncertainties • Growth • 2016: aging method invalidated • Incorrect # rings counted at margin in >half of fish • Long-standing questions about early growth
• Growth model incorrect • Model not updated
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
2016 Monkfish Update Terms of Reference • • • • •
TOR 1: Update catch statistics TOR 2: Update fishery-independent indices TOR 3: Review evidence for biological changes TOR 4: Compare annual ACLs with catches TOR 5: Analysis to support SSC decisions
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5
TOR 1. Update catch estimates, including landings, discard, size composition of catch
• Landings
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
TOR 1. Catch statistics – Gear type • North landings – trawls
South landings – gillnets
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
TOR 1. Catch statistics – Gear type • Overall - trawl and gillnet landings equivalent
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
TOR 1. Catch statistics - Discards
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
TOR 1. Catch statistics • North (2013-2015) 14%
South (2013-2015) 25%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
TOR 1. Catch length composition - North North - Kept Note: x and y axis scales vary
North - Discarded
Dredge
Gillnet
Trawl
2012
Kept
Discarded 2013
2014
2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
TOR 1. Catch length composition - South South - Kept Note: x and y axis scales vary
South - Discarded
Dredge
Gillnet
Trawl
2012
Discarded
Kept 2013
2014
2015
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
TOR 2. Fishery-independent indices • Update fishery-independent indices, including recruitment indices and length composition of survey catches
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13
TOR 2. Survey indices - North • Bigelow time series Biomass
Abundance Abundance
Biomass NEFSC Fall Abundance Index (#/tow)
10 8 6 4 2 0 2009
2010
12
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
Spring
12
2011
2012
2013
2014
8 6 4 2
2010
2011
2012
8 6 4 2
2010
6
NEFSC Spring
10
0 2009
NEFSC Fall
10
0 2009
2015
Abundance Index (#/tow)
Fall
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
12
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
NEFSC Spring
5 4 3 2 1 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
TOR 2. Survey indices - North • All surveys
Abundance
Biomass
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
TOR 2. Survey indices - South • Bigelow time series South
Biomass
Abundance
Biomass
Abundance
NEFSC Fall
5 4 3 2 1 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3
2
1
2010
2011
2012
20 15 10 5
2010
3
NEFSC Spring
4
0 2009
NEFSC Fall
25
0 2009
2015
Abundance Index (#/tow)
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
5
Spring
30
Abundance Index (#/tow)
Fall
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
6
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
NEFSC Spring
3 2 2 1 1 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
TOR 2. Survey indices - South • All surveys
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
TOR 2. Surveys – 2015 recruitment event • South 2015 April 2 June 10
Sept 20
NEFSC Spring
NEFSC Scallop
VIMS scallop dredge survey 2015
NEFSC Fall
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18
TOR 2. Surveys – 2015 recruitment event • South NEFSC Surveys
Spring 2015
Fall 2016
Spring 2016
May 2, 2016
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 1
TOR 2. Survey indices – recruitment event North 2015
NEFSC Spring
April 24 Aug 1
Summer Shrimp
May 26, 2016
Oct 20
NEFSC Fall
NEFSC Spring
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Pag
TOR 2. Survey indices - Recruitment • Recruitment indices North
South
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21
TOR 2. Survey indices – NEFSC Spring • Spring 2016
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22
TOR 3. Review evidence for biological changes • Distribution changes • Movies • Temperature • Depth • Condition factors
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23
TOR 4: Compare ACLs with catches - North • ACL vs. annual catch
• TAL vs. FY landings Percent of TAL
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24
TOR 4: Compare ACLs with catches - South
• ACL vs. annual catch
• TAL vs. FY landings Percent of TAL
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25
TOR 5. Provide analysis to support SSC • Relative exploitation indices (catch/abundance index) North
South
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC • Relative exploitation indices (ldgs/43+ index) NEFSC fall survey Biomass-based
Abundance-based
(swept area abundance)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC • Method for OFL adjustment (GB cod) • Use trend in recent survey indices to adjust previous catch advice
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC • Method • Average NEFSC fall and spring surveys, exploitable size (43+ cm) • Smooth indices (Loess, α=0.25) • Regression over last 3 years used to estimate percent change (slope) • Apply percent change to derive new catch advice
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC Spring and Fall Exploitable Biomass Indices
North
South
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 30
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC Loess-smoothed spring-fall average 43+ indices
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31
TOR 5. Provide analysis for SSC Trends
North: 2% increase South: 13% decrease
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 32
