Summary of 2013 Monkfish Operational Assessment - nefmc
1. Correspondence & Reports - June 18-20, 2013 - M
#7
Summary of 2013 Monkfish Operational Assessment
Presentation for NEFMC, June 2013 by: NEFSC 1
Operational Assessment • Baseline model from previous benchmark assessment is updated with minimal change • OA undergoes peer review: • Is OA sufficient to 1) evaluate stock status 2) provide scientific advice 3) does it meet TOR? • BRPs updated, but not re-defined • April 2013 Monkfish review panel: John Annala, Alexi Sharov, Gary Nelson 2
2013 OA Terms of Reference 1. Update commercial catch data 2. Update survey data 3. Update SCALE model to estimate F, B, R 4. Update BRPs, evaluate stock status 5. Summarize uncertainty 6. Short-term projections Terminal year: 2011
3
TOR #1. Update Fishery Data Landings, 1964-2011
4
5
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
South Discard
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
20
1984
25
1982
1980
Catch (kt)
Catch Estimates South
South Landings
15
10 5
0
TOR # 2: Update survey data North
NEFSC spring NEFSC fall Maine-NH inshore N Shrimp
South
NEFSC spring NEFSC fall Scallop
6
Biomass 2011
2008
2005
0 2002
0 1999
2
1996
1
1993
4
1990
2 NEFSC Fall
1987
6
3
1984
8
1981
ME‐NH Fall 2
1978
10
1975
Shrimp
1972
Spring
3
1969
12
Abundance Index (#/tow)
14
1966
NEFSC Fall
Shrimp , ME‐NH Biomass Index
North
1963
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
3
1996
4
1993
5
1990
1987
6
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
North 14
Spring 12
Shrimp 10
ME‐NH Fall
2 8
6
1 4
1 2
0 0
Abundance
7
Shrimp, ME‐NH Abundance Index
North Survey Indices
Biomass 1
0 0
2011
1
2008
2
2005
2
2002
3
1999
3
1996
4
1993
4
Abundance Index (#/tow) 3
1990
5
5
1987
5 4
1984
6
1981
Winter
1978
6
1975
7
1972
Spring 8
1969
7
South
1966
Fall
Winter Survey Biomass Index
8
1963
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
South
Fall 5
Spring
Winter 4
Scallop 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
Numbers
8
Winter, Scallop Abundance Index
South Survey Indices 6
TOR # 3: Update SCALE model
Estimate: Fishing mortality Stock biomass Recruitment
9
SCALE – North Final Model
Revised discard data (1980-2009) Two additional years (2010-2011) Model configuration unchanged
10
2013
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Thousand metric tons
SAW 50
0
40 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1.2
Millions
1.4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fmult
SCALE – North
Final 2013 Model vs. 2010 Fmult 120
Total Biomass
100 SAW 50
80 2013
60
40
20 0
50
Age 1 Recruitment
SAW 50
2013
30
20
10
0
11
SCALE – South Final Model
Revised discard data (1980-2009) Two additional years (2010-2011) 1 selectivity block (vs. 2 in 2010)
12
50
10
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Millions
0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fmult
SCALE – South
Fmult
SAW 50
2013
Age 1 Recruitment
40
30
20
SAW 50
2013
0
13
TOR # 4 Update BRPs Evaluate stock status
14
F Reference Points FMSY proxy = Fmax = Fthreshold SAW50 (2010)
2013 update
0.43
0.44
South 0.46
0.37
North
15
Biomass Reference Points Btarget = long-term projected B at FMSY (proxy) Bthreshold=0.5* Btarget SAW 50 (kt)
2013 OA (kt)
North Btarget
52.9
46.1
North Bthreshold
26.5
23.0
South Btarget
74.5
71.7
South Bthreshold
37.2
35.8
16
Stock Status - North
Not overfished (B2011 = 60,480 mt ) Overfishing not occurring now (F2011 = 0.08)
17
Stock Status - South
Not overfished (B2011= 111,100 mt) Overfishing not occurring (F2011= 0.11)
18
TOR 5: Summarize Uncertainty Possible mis-specification of growth and M Other biology (migrations, stock structure) Catch: truncated, uncertain series Surveys: low catchability in Albatross surveys Models: difficulty fitting recent catch lf’s Models: retrospective patterns, esp. North VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY Not all reflected in model fit and retro!
19
TOR 6: 3-yr Projections North
In this slide: Red is “biomass”. Blue is “catch”.
20
TOR 6: 3-yr Projections South
In this slide: Red is “biomass”. Blue is “catch”. 21
2013 Review Panel Conclusions Major uncertainties, but assessment accepted for determining stock status and catch advice Key uncertainties remain; updates may be needed, but do not hold a benchmark until new info available on growth, M etc. Biomass and catch projections likely are optimistic given retrospective patterns Adjustments should be made for retrospective patterns 22
Review Panel Research recommendations:
Resolve age, growth, M Understand movement between areas Develop a one-stock model Develop a 2-sex model (dependent on results of growth studies)
23
#7
Summary of 2013 Monkfish Operational Assessment
Presentation for NEFMC, June 2013 by: NEFSC 1
Operational Assessment • Baseline model from previous benchmark assessment is updated with minimal change • OA undergoes peer review: • Is OA sufficient to 1) evaluate stock status 2) provide scientific advice 3) does it meet TOR? • BRPs updated, but not re-defined • April 2013 Monkfish review panel: John Annala, Alexi Sharov, Gary Nelson 2
2013 OA Terms of Reference 1. Update commercial catch data 2. Update survey data 3. Update SCALE model to estimate F, B, R 4. Update BRPs, evaluate stock status 5. Summarize uncertainty 6. Short-term projections Terminal year: 2011
3
TOR #1. Update Fishery Data Landings, 1964-2011
4
5
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
South Discard
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
20
1984
25
1982
1980
Catch (kt)
Catch Estimates South
South Landings
15
10 5
0
TOR # 2: Update survey data North
NEFSC spring NEFSC fall Maine-NH inshore N Shrimp
South
NEFSC spring NEFSC fall Scallop
6
Biomass 2011
2008
2005
0 2002
0 1999
2
1996
1
1993
4
1990
2 NEFSC Fall
1987
6
3
1984
8
1981
ME‐NH Fall 2
1978
10
1975
Shrimp
1972
Spring
3
1969
12
Abundance Index (#/tow)
14
1966
NEFSC Fall
Shrimp , ME‐NH Biomass Index
North
1963
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
3
1996
4
1993
5
1990
1987
6
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
North 14
Spring 12
Shrimp 10
ME‐NH Fall
2 8
6
1 4
1 2
0 0
Abundance
7
Shrimp, ME‐NH Abundance Index
North Survey Indices
Biomass 1
0 0
2011
1
2008
2
2005
2
2002
3
1999
3
1996
4
1993
4
Abundance Index (#/tow) 3
1990
5
5
1987
5 4
1984
6
1981
Winter
1978
6
1975
7
1972
Spring 8
1969
7
South
1966
Fall
Winter Survey Biomass Index
8
1963
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
Biomass Index (kg/tow)
South
Fall 5
Spring
Winter 4
Scallop 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
Numbers
8
Winter, Scallop Abundance Index
South Survey Indices 6
TOR # 3: Update SCALE model
Estimate: Fishing mortality Stock biomass Recruitment
9
SCALE – North Final Model
Revised discard data (1980-2009) Two additional years (2010-2011) Model configuration unchanged
10
2013
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Thousand metric tons
SAW 50
0
40 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1.2
Millions
1.4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fmult
SCALE – North
Final 2013 Model vs. 2010 Fmult 120
Total Biomass
100 SAW 50
80 2013
60
40
20 0
50
Age 1 Recruitment
SAW 50
2013
30
20
10
0
11
SCALE – South Final Model
Revised discard data (1980-2009) Two additional years (2010-2011) 1 selectivity block (vs. 2 in 2010)
12
50
10
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Millions
0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fmult
SCALE – South
Fmult
SAW 50
2013
Age 1 Recruitment
40
30
20
SAW 50
2013
0
13
TOR # 4 Update BRPs Evaluate stock status
14
F Reference Points FMSY proxy = Fmax = Fthreshold SAW50 (2010)
2013 update
0.43
0.44
South 0.46
0.37
North
15
Biomass Reference Points Btarget = long-term projected B at FMSY (proxy) Bthreshold=0.5* Btarget SAW 50 (kt)
2013 OA (kt)
North Btarget
52.9
46.1
North Bthreshold
26.5
23.0
South Btarget
74.5
71.7
South Bthreshold
37.2
35.8
16
Stock Status - North
Not overfished (B2011 = 60,480 mt ) Overfishing not occurring now (F2011 = 0.08)
17
Stock Status - South
Not overfished (B2011= 111,100 mt) Overfishing not occurring (F2011= 0.11)
18
TOR 5: Summarize Uncertainty Possible mis-specification of growth and M Other biology (migrations, stock structure) Catch: truncated, uncertain series Surveys: low catchability in Albatross surveys Models: difficulty fitting recent catch lf’s Models: retrospective patterns, esp. North VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY Not all reflected in model fit and retro!
19
TOR 6: 3-yr Projections North
In this slide: Red is “biomass”. Blue is “catch”.
20
TOR 6: 3-yr Projections South
In this slide: Red is “biomass”. Blue is “catch”. 21
2013 Review Panel Conclusions Major uncertainties, but assessment accepted for determining stock status and catch advice Key uncertainties remain; updates may be needed, but do not hold a benchmark until new info available on growth, M etc. Biomass and catch projections likely are optimistic given retrospective patterns Adjustments should be made for retrospective patterns 22
Review Panel Research recommendations:
Resolve age, growth, M Understand movement between areas Develop a one-stock model Develop a 2-sex model (dependent on results of growth studies)
23
