Muangthai Leasing Company Update
Buy (16E TP Bt25.00) Close Bt20.70
Finance & Securities February 5, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
4Q15E and 2015E earnings growth to outpace financial peers Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.394
0.571
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.0%
‐0.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MTLS.BK/MTLS TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,120.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
44.00/1,234.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/2.12
52 week High / Low (Bt)
22.10/15.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
10,881.00 1.65
Estimated free float (%)
20.1
Beta
1.08
URL
www.muangthaileasing.co.th
CGR
Maintain Buy on the outstanding growth outlook We maintain our BUY rating for MTLS. We still like MTLS in regard to it being one of the top growth stocks in the financial sector as well as its prudent risk management and efficient asset quality control. We still expect MTLS to show outstanding earnings growth vs. financial peers over the next three years thanks to the favorable industry outlook and its long‐standing expertise in the field. Expect 4Q15E net profit of Bt240mn (+63% YoY, +9% QoQ) We expect MTLS to post a strong 4Q15E net profit (NP) of Bt240mn (+63% YoY, +9% QoQ) and a 2015E NP of Bt824mn (+52% YoY). The sharp NP growth YoY for 4Q15E and 2015E should be backed mainly by its robust loan growth of ~58% YoY and non‐interest income growth of 15‐ 16% YoY. This should be thanks mainly to its aggressive branch expansion to 940 branches at end‐15 vs. 506 branches in 2014, with 40 and 434 new branches opened in 4Q15 and 2015 vs. just 91 and 52 new branches in 2014 and 2013, respectively. NIM for 2015E is likely to be at ~20% vs. 19% for 2014, thanks to the much lower funding costs after the IPO. Meanwhile, the modest NP growth QoQ should be due mainly to some higher expenses related to a New Year party and gifts as well as to branch expansion for 2015, which ended up ahead of its latest target of 900 branches in 2015 after it received proceeds from the IPO in late 2014. Asset quality remains well controllable Given MTLS’s strength over peers with respect to its stringent and prudent practices in asset quality control, its NPL ratio for 2015E is likely to decline to ~1.0% of loans vs. 1.5% in 2014. Better diversification of portfolio mix After receiving new proceeds from its IPO in late 2014, MTLS has been more aggressive in expanding its product lines to cars, agricultural vehicles, personal loans (becoming more aggressive in 1Q15), nano‐ finance (started in 3Q15) as well as land title lending (started in 4Q15) from its original focus on motorcycles. Therefore, the proportion of motorcycle lending is likely to decline to ~60% of loans in 2015 (vs. 80% in 2014). Meanwhile, car lending is likely to increase to ~35% (from 20%) and non‐collateralized loans (personal loans and nano‐finance) are likely to increase to ~3‐4% in 2015 from 0.5% in 2014. Financials and Valuation 2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btm)
523
572
863
1,276
1,843
Net profit (Btmn)
351
544
824
1,205
1,728
EPS (Bt)
0.22
0.26
0.39
0.57
0.81
EPS growth (%)
‐9%
15%
52%
46%
43%
FY Ended 31 Dec Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
BV (Bt)
1.23
2.41
2.67
3.04
3.57
Dividend (Bt)
0.20
0.13
0.20
0.28
0.41
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PER (x)
92.77
80.65
53.23
36.42
25.40
PBV (x)
16.83
8.59
7.76
6.81
5.79
0.98
0.63
0.97
1.37
1.97
20%
15%
15%
20%
25%
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 4Q15E earnings preview Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
4Q14
3Q15
Interest Income
432
591
697
61%
18% 1,567
2,261
44%
Interest Expenses
74
59
76
4%
30% 266
243
‐9%
Net Interest Income
358
532
620
73%
17% 1,301
2,018
55%
Non Interest Income
76
84
87
15%
4% 289
334
16%
Operating Income
434
616
708
63%
15% 1,590
2,352
48%
Operating Expenses
240
327
382
60%
17% 883
1,275
44%
Operating Profit
195
289
325
67%
12% 708
1,076
52%
Provision expenses (Reversal)
9
13
15
63%
17% 14
11
‐23%
Taxes
36
55
67
87%
23% 136
213
Gain(loss) from foreclosed assets
(3) (2) (4)
30%
Net Profit
147
220
240
63%
9% 544
824
52%
PPOP
159
234
258
63%
10% 572
863
51%
EPS (Bt)
0.69
1.04
1.13
63%
9% 2.57
3.89
52%
4Q14
3Q15
112
111
Key Statistics and Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
2014
2015E
4Q15E
2014
123
112
123
1.50%
1.04%
290.2%
281.3%
245.1%
290.2%
245.1%
4.4%
2.8%
2.6%
4.4%
2.6%
58.2%
46.3%
46.8%
58.2%
46.8%
181.6% 1.2
57%
190.0%
214.8%
1.1
0.7
‐41%
2015E
1.04%
0.7
% YoY
101% (13) (8)
1.01%
214.8%
Debt to equity ratio
% YoY % QoQ
1.50%
Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio
4Q15E
190.0% 1.1
Cost to Income
55.2%
53.1%
54.0%
55.5%
54.2%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
17.5%
13.6%
12.3%
18.2%
14.2%
Net Interest Margin
19.2%
20.9%
21.8%
18.8%
20.5%
Loan Growth YoY
19.2%
57.8%
57.6%
28%
57.6%
Loan Growth QoQ
7.1%
17.4%
7.0%
7.1%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: MTLS's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 9.0
+2.5 S.D.
8.5
+2.0 S.D.
8.0
+1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D.
7.5 +0.5 S.D. 7.0 Avg. 6.5 6.0
-0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
5.5 5.0
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
4.0
Dec-14
4.5
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside vs. market price
(Bt)
(%)
28
35
8.7
27
28
+2.0SD
8.3
25
22
+1.5SD
7.9
24
16
+1.0SD
7.5
23
10
+0.5SD
7.1
22
4
Average
6.7
20
-2
2016E
PBV (x)
+3.0SD
9.2
+2.5SD
-0.5SD
6.3
19
-8
-1.0SD
5.9
18
-14
-1.5SD
5.4
17
-20
-2.0SD
5.0
15
-26
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.