National Petrochemical Co. (PETROCHEM)
February 2016
Investment Update
Please read Disclaimer on the back
PETROCHEM: Continued higher utilization rates in 2016; however, product price and the demand level will continue to raise concern in the short-term outlook; “Overweight” recommendation reiterated with lower PT. Amount in SAR mn; unless specified Revenue Net profit EPS (SAR)
Forecasts 4Q-15 1,798.4 247.0 0.51
Actual 4Q-15 1,654.7 178.3 0.37
Deviation (%) -7.9% - 27.8%
Lower than expected utilization rates and weak product margin to result in disappointing Q4-2015 earnings: National Petrochemical Company (Petrochem) Q4-15 earnings came below expectation and showed a deviation of 27.8% from AJC estimates and 24.6% from market consensus of SAR 236.6m. Petrochem posted net income of SAR 178.3mn; (EPS; SAR0.37); indicating a fall of 7.4%YoY and 44.5%QoQ. We believe the below than expected result was mainly associated with i) lower product prices. Ii) lower spreads across products due to a higher decrease in the average of prices of goods sold, compared to the decrease in the average feedstock prices. The company’s sales revenue stood at SAR 1,654.7mn, well below AJC forecast of SAR 1,798.1mn with a deviation of 7.9%, which we believe was due to decline in sales volume on the back of lower utilization rate at around 84.9% of the total production capacity. However, we expect the company’s sales in 2016 to continue its growth trajectory, due to expected higher utilization rate of more than 88% for the coming quarters. Gross profit stood at SAR 546.3mn depicting a fall of 10.9%YoY, and 27.9%QoQ, that missed AJC expectation by 12.5% due to lower than expected gross margin expansion. Gross margin stood at 33% in 4Q15 vs. AJC estimates of 34.7% and 39.6% in 3Q15. Accordingly, the stronger decline in Polypropylene & Polystyrene prices compare to Naphtha was the reason behind the profit margins shrinking. Operating Profit stood at SAR 372.5mn depicting a decline of 8.4%YoY, and 37.1%QoQ; where the company witnessed an increase in OPEX (SG & A) by 4.6%QoQ to record SAR 173.6mn as compare to SAR 165.9mn during Q3-2015. Lower crude oil prices to weigh on polymers prices: During the quarter, average selling prices of PP dropped by 14.7%QoQ and 32.9%YoY. Polystyrene declined by 14.9%QoQ and 25.7%YoY. HDPE decreased 8.1%QoQ and 22.8%YoY. This decline in polymers prices was due to decline in crude prices resulting in decline in feedstock prices and lower global demand (particularly from China). We believe that improvement in prices is dependent primarily on demand from China and some expected improvement in crude oil price. As Brent and WTI prices rose from less than USD 30 per barrel to about USD 35 per barrel due to coordinated production freez by Russia and OPEC at January production levels. Petchem players with liquid gas feedstock faced margin contraction in 4Q2015: Despite the fact that these companies are in a better situation to adopt with any oil price decline; however, during 4Q2015, Naphtha prices (Saudi propane feedstock is calculated on 28% discount from Naphtha feedstock price) declined by 4.1%QoQ and averaged at USD 447 per MT as against USD 466 per MT in 3Q2015. Due to lower demand, the polypropylene (PP) Asia and Gulf prices declined by 14.7% and 16.2%QoQ respectively. Margin for polypropylene producers shrink in 4Q2015 as price decline in final product (PP) is higher than the price decline in liquid feedstock price. This led to a decline in the polypropylene-propane spread. On a YoY basis, the polypropylene-naphtha spread shrinked by 71.3%, driven by a decline in demand amid stability in feedstock prices. Hence, we believe that in 2016, petrochemical players using Liquid gas as feedstock; would loss some extended margins that witnessed in last few quarters. Higher feedstock cost, electricity, and fuel gas cost to hurt Petrochem’s net profitability by around SAR 50mn in 2016: The government of Saudi Arabia recently raised natural gas, fuel, Petchem feedstock, and electricity prices to curb the budget deficit. It’s cutting the propane price discount to 20% from 28% while changing the basis to propane instead of naphtha. It increased the Ethan prices from earlier fixed subsidized rate of USD 0.75 per mmbtu to USD 1.75 per mmbtu and Methane/natural gas from 0.75 per mmbtu to USD 1.25 per mmbtu. According to the company, this change is expected to increase production costs by SAR 50mn as a result of fuel and electricity prices increase, while the actual impact of higher propane gas price would be dependent on feedstock prices. We have reworked our financial model assumptions to incorporate the impact of these changes. Based on our revised assumptions, Petrochem’s net income of our estimates would decline by about 7.2% in 2016. Consequently, the net income of the company for 2016 stands revised to SAR 653mn from earlier estimate of SAR 703.5mn.
1
Recommendation
Overweight
Current Price* (SAR)
12.95
Target Price (SAR)
19.20
Upside / (Downside)
48.3% *Prices as of 18th of February 2016
Key Financials SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
7,859 77.1% 774 NM 1.61
7,304 -7.1% 906 17.0% 1.89
7,803 6.8% 653 -27.9% 1.36
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital, NM: Not Meaningful
Our estimates and valuation: National Petrochemical Co. (Petrochem) is expected to post SAR 653mn in net income (1.36 EPS) for 2016, recording a decline of 27.9%YoY for the year influenced by higher feedstock cost, low level in product price and expected lower spreads across products. we remain ‘Overweight’ for the stock with lower target price at SAR19.20/share; indicating a potential upside of 48.3% over current market price of SAR12.95 share (as of 18th February 2016). The company is trading at attractive forward PE and P/B of 9.5x and 0.7x respectively based on our 2016 earnings forecast. At the end of 4Q2015, Petrochem’s debt-to-equity ratio stood at 1.7x, with the gross debt at around SAR 12.5bn. Commercial banks account for nearly 69% of the debt, with repayment over a period of 8 years; PIF and SIDF account for the remaining 31%, with repayment over 5 to 8 years. A strong balance sheet and sustainable cash flows are expected to prove sufficient to repay existing debt and manage future expansion plans. We anticipate the company not to pay a dividend i over the next three years owing to its current long term debt.
Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA
29.3% 29.7% 9.9% 13.57 1.54x 8.90x 12.5% 3.6%
34.0% 35.4% 12.4% 8.85x 0.97x 6.09x 12.0% 4.1%
27.4% 29.2% 8.4% 9.51x 0.69x 5.55x 7.6% 2.9%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital * Adjusted price
Shareholders Pattern Shareholders Pattern Saudi Industrial Investment Group Public Pension Agency General Organization for Social Insurance Public
Holding 50.0% 16.25% 16.25% 17.5%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Key Market Data Market Cap(bn) YTD % 52 Week (High ) 52 Week (Low) Shares Outstanding (mn)
6.21 - 20.1% 30.40 12.70 480.0 Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248
[email protected] © All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
AGM - Head of Research
Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250
[email protected] Analyst
Sultan Al Kadi
+966 11 2256115
[email protected] +966 11 2256374
[email protected] General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256060
[email protected] +966 11 2256277
[email protected] +966 12 6618400
[email protected] AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547
[email protected] Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248
[email protected] BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Analyst
+966 11 2256364
[email protected] AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Senior Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37